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Bitcoin technical analysis

  • #3,101
  • Apr 19, 2014 1:55am Apr 19, 2014 1:55am
Quoting venzen
{quote} Remember that I count the Euro, Dollar, Gold, Silver and Bitcoin as advancing in diagonals. No big deal, just my way to account for the 3 wave substructure of each advance (see chart below). The count you show is also ok, but originally the wave was in the context of a larger uptrend, so it's corrective - as you can also see from the jagged wave shapes. Thing is... when you say "normal way" this makes a lot of assumptions. For example, all of the BTC wave action to the downside (since Dec) has been corrective and many people are labeling...
Mate you make a lot of sense...
Money Makes Money
  • #3,102
  • Apr 19, 2014 2:48am Apr 19, 2014 2:48am
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  • #3,103
  • Edited 5:27am Apr 19, 2014 2:53am | Edited 5:27am
thank you venzen for your detailed reply. i will need some days to read it and understand... but just a small note on direction. LL and I are doing quite well nailing all the directional moves.

And i wouldn't be wasting my time with EW if i thot it was useless

EW allowed us to predict with great accuracy the end of wave e and the end of this wave 4 also. what more you need from a trading tool?! it is a precision tool if one knows how to use it.
  • #3,104
  • Apr 19, 2014 3:51am Apr 19, 2014 3:51am
Next speed bump at 422...Btc-e......450 Bitstamp......
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Money Makes Money
  • #3,105
  • Edited 5:23am Apr 19, 2014 4:15am | Edited 5:23am
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my style of trading is looking for a recent bottom such as the 255 and count 5 waves up. everything else is academic i leave it to historians

right now, gold is traded as a commodity which obviously it is not. once gold is revalued and looked at as a wealth asset people will get it. it was never a commodity to begin with! i disagree with your forcast to 300. once the dollar stops being the reserve currency (very soon) a new system will be created and revalue gold to 10s of thousands of dollars
  • #3,106
  • Apr 19, 2014 5:47am Apr 19, 2014 5:47am
old school
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  • #3,107
  • Apr 19, 2014 6:03am Apr 19, 2014 6:03am
this is my count so far
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  • #3,108
  • Apr 19, 2014 6:10am Apr 19, 2014 6:10am
Quoting KiwiOz
{quote} Mate you make a lot of sense...
Well, I'm glad someone thinks so! My partner just looks at me sometimes and says: "Falang ting-tong!" (These foreigners are crazy)

While i'm in a state of dissonance about Elliott Wave, due to it failing miserably more often than not, I cannot put it aside because the underlying principle makes sense and i want to crack the code! Anyhow, I have made a decision to learn the magnetic line method and TDM, so please link interesting posts from your thread here. It cannot possibly be off-topic if it helps us all trade better.

BTW, drawing simple trendline channels, I'm getting a target down at $260 (BTC-e) and another secondary target down at $140. Does this seem right to you?

BTC-e 4H

I'd say once PA breaks and closes above that upper red TL then the uptrend will be confirmed. But until then it's a wait-and-see.

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cryptocurrency everytime
  • #3,109
  • Apr 19, 2014 6:27am Apr 19, 2014 6:27am
Quoting emptymind
{image} my style of trading is looking for a recent bottom such as the 255 and count 5 waves up. everything else is academic i leave it to historians right now, gold is traded as a commodity which obviously it is not. once gold is revalued and looked at as a wealth asset people will get it. it was never a commodity to begin with! i disagree with your forcast to 300. once the dollar stops being the reserve currency (very soon) a new system will be created and revalue gold to 10s of thousands of dollars
wow! and boldly spoken... your points are all in the realm of plausibility and i find your view interesting, because it's very different from mine. We could argue for pages about the supporting evidence for and against market valuations of the most popular assets but it would be pointless in the end. Instead, let me ask you to talk more about the classification of Gold as a commodity - how do you mean it was never a commodity to begin with?

If it were left to the market Gold could certainly go to $10,000 per ounce but equally the market could sell it to near zero as has happened in the past. I don't believe either outcome is good or bad. Please say more about what you think about the commodity classification.
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #3,110
  • Apr 19, 2014 6:29am Apr 19, 2014 6:29am
venzen, i looked at your chart above. it is invalidated by your wave i being shorter than iii
wave i should be the longest

279.87 vs 358.38

that isn't a diagonal!
  • #3,111
  • Apr 19, 2014 7:30am Apr 19, 2014 7:30am
Quoting emptymind
venzen, i looked at your chart above. it is invalidated by your wave i being shorter than iii wave i should be the longest 279.87 vs 358.38 that isn't a diagonal!
I also wish it wasn't a potential count, so we can get the rally started, but it may be an expanding diagonal.

I'm just making provision for additional decline, because once price opens and closes above that red TL then we know more upside is favored!
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #3,112
  • Apr 19, 2014 7:51am Apr 19, 2014 7:51am
Quoting venzen
{quote} I also wish it wasn't a potential count, so we can get the rally started, but it may be an expanding diagonal. I'm just making provision for additional decline, because once price opens and closes above that red TL then we know more upside is favored!
if it was an expanding triangle your wave ii should take out your B wave at 709.99 if im not mistaken but didn't
  • #3,113
  • Apr 19, 2014 7:54am Apr 19, 2014 7:54am
Quoting venzen
{quote} wow! and boldly spoken... your points are all in the realm of plausibility and i find your view interesting, because it's very different from mine. We could argue for pages about the supporting evidence for and against market valuations of the most popular assets but it would be pointless in the end. Instead, let me ask you to talk more about the classification of Gold as a commodity - how do you mean it was never a commodity to begin with? If it were left to the market Gold could certainly go to $10,000 per ounce but equally the market...
it was never a commodity in the sense that it is not consumed by industry. it is mostly being hoarded by people who recognise it is a wealth asset and are happy to buy it dirt cheap. i just think the system is a scam and is setup by elites who must hoard gold over time in order to accumulate generational wealth. millions of nobodys around the world selling at these "paper" prices set by paper futures and spot price backed by nothing other than more paper. why do you think central banks buy gold and keep it? it is to give value to their worthless paper money. gold gives value to paper and not the othher way around.
  • #3,114
  • Apr 19, 2014 8:40am Apr 19, 2014 8:40am
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  • #3,115
  • Apr 19, 2014 8:42am Apr 19, 2014 8:42am
Quoting emptymind
{quote} it was never a commodity in the sense that it is not consumed by industry. it is mostly being hoarded by people who recognise it is a wealth asset and are happy to buy it dirt cheap. i just think the system is a scam and is setup by elites who must hoard gold over time in order to accumulate generational wealth. millions of nobodys around the world selling at these "paper" prices set by paper futures and spot price backed by nothing other than more paper. why do you think central banks buy gold and keep it? it is to give value to their worthless...
i see what you mean. Yes, the Gold market is very old and heavily manipulated, as you say.
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #3,116
  • Edited 8:55am Apr 19, 2014 8:44am | Edited 8:55am
this is my wave 3 target for this 1st wave
502.5-472.81 )*.618+ 496.7=515.04

so wave 3 will be approx 261.8% of wave 1..... 519.12 (if it touch 519)
  • #3,117
  • Edited 11:52am Apr 19, 2014 9:23am | Edited 11:52am
Quoting venzen
{quote} Well, I'm glad someone thinks so! My partner just looks at me sometimes and says: "Falang ting-tong!"
Good morning everyone

Nice charts and chats
Venzen, may be just tell her something like : "Tee rak, gu ruk BTC... tum arai.. kitoun, kitoun"

Back to the charts, I thought C could be an ending diagonal. Then I looked back at the wave 3. And the part I mentioned, I got wrong was "i" and "ii" in blue. Looking back at it Emptymind was more right with "1" and "2".
Now that look very similar to the black 3.4.5 of my diagonal C. So may be I got it wrong again and it is indeed "1" of the new advance.
Either way, unless this advance closes somewhat below my black "4" (or even 480 on stamp) I'm gonna stick with this being wave 5 of 1 up to 635.
http://i.imgur.com/OGRjXP4.png


edit :
About the scenario that "shall not be spoken of", Venzen, i saw that count on Tview, https://www.tradingview.com/v/fYhqvd8H/
I guess it make sens, but for it to be valid I'd have to consider April a wave III and november a wave V. Which I did before, and we talked about it. But now I do think november was a smaller degree than april, considering a relatively weak target in % comparison for november to be a wave 5,
I'm still not sure about november being a wave 1 or wave 3, it depends if september wave from 65 to 160 was a wave 1 or a wave i,

edit 2 :
KO, i have a question, it's a bit of translation thing, you say "speed bump" quiet often and I'm never sure what you mean exactly by that. Is it the target where you expect the price a bounce before resuming a move in the same direction ? Or is it where the point of confirmation of an accelerate move in that direction ?
  • #3,118
  • Edited 12:44pm Apr 19, 2014 12:32pm | Edited 12:44pm
wave 3 is just a little over 161.8% ...so it is of normal size compared to wave 1. wave 5 should extend because 1&3 didn't
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  • #3,119
  • Apr 19, 2014 1:08pm Apr 19, 2014 1:08pm
take the distance covered from the end of wave e all the way to wave 3 and add it to wave 4......... we get our target for wave 5
548-339.79)+470 = 678.21 (wave 5 target . it will extend)
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  • #3,120
  • Apr 19, 2014 1:26pm Apr 19, 2014 1:26pm
Quoting lady_luck
{quote} Good morning everyone Nice charts and chats Venzen, may be just tell her something like : "Tee rak, gu ruk BTC... tum arai.. kitoun, kitoun" Back to the charts, I thought C could be an ending diagonal. Then I looked back at the wave 3. And the part I mentioned, I got wrong was "i" and "ii" in blue. Looking back at it Emptymind was more right with "1" and "2". Now that look very similar to the black 3.4.5...
good morning LL, i see it... fractal copy! i visited the tradingview link. i couldn't understand it. seems gibberish with wxyies thrown everywhere and hoping for something to stick! i dont know, mumblings of mother, infant... i did not understand
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