Disliked{quote} i don't understand what you're scare of. even if it was a leading diagonal it will still be 5 waves and take out your 548Ignored
- #3,064
- Apr 18, 2014 9:30am Apr 18, 2014 9:30am
- Joined Jul 2011 | Status: good | 4,295 Posts
i realize i have a subconscious expectation that the Bitcoin chart should follow the EWP idealized wave progression of an eternal bull market.
certainly, as emptymind has mentioned about a spike into July, we've all been anticipating a powerful rally as Bitcoin becomes mainstream and an investment "favourite" after all the promise and excitement. I fully believe that levels above $5000 are feasible and will be seen. However, considering the inherent nature of commodities - and Bitcoin is certainly more commodity than currency for the foreseeable future - perhaps we should temper our upside expectation with the reality of commodity crashes to near zero.
I'm not saying Bitcoin is going to near zero - that doesn't suit the broader market's tendency at the moment - but I think its realistic to expect price back below $600 within 6 months. In a way that's better for speculative trade than a "stable" Bitcoin that ranges between $4440 and $4450 for years on end.
Coffee
certainly, as emptymind has mentioned about a spike into July, we've all been anticipating a powerful rally as Bitcoin becomes mainstream and an investment "favourite" after all the promise and excitement. I fully believe that levels above $5000 are feasible and will be seen. However, considering the inherent nature of commodities - and Bitcoin is certainly more commodity than currency for the foreseeable future - perhaps we should temper our upside expectation with the reality of commodity crashes to near zero.
I'm not saying Bitcoin is going to near zero - that doesn't suit the broader market's tendency at the moment - but I think its realistic to expect price back below $600 within 6 months. In a way that's better for speculative trade than a "stable" Bitcoin that ranges between $4440 and $4450 for years on end.
Coffee
cryptocurrency everytime
- #3,066
- Apr 18, 2014 9:35am Apr 18, 2014 9:35am
{quote} my understanding after e wave completes you get impulse wave up... if you can draw something so we can vizualise i'd appreciate it
Good morning everyone
Coffee
Nice to see you here Venzen, long time
So far we had two counts for wave 3, I had wave iv of 3 at 490 (btc-e) and emptymind at 455.
Top of wave 1,in both count at 440.
I wouldn't worried until then.
This current wave 4, had a strong wave B, an ending diagonal for wave C could explain the current PA ?
- #3,071
- Apr 18, 2014 9:52am Apr 18, 2014 9:52am
- Joined Jul 2011 | Status: good | 4,295 Posts
{quote} Good morning everyone
your analysis makes sense - i like the proposal that the current wave C is a diagonal - lots of 3-wave structures.
the recent top formation is strange - i'm can't decide if it's a B wave to the high or a wave 5... doesn't matter really, we have a consensus pivot around 440, so another cup of coffee for me and enjoy the Friday night ride
cryptocurrency everytime
- #3,072
- Apr 18, 2014 9:57am Apr 18, 2014 9:57am
- Joined Jul 2011 | Status: good | 4,295 Posts
{quote} diagonals do not occur in large wave degrees only smaller
All of those diagonals span at least 2-3 months, which may very well be what we're looking at here.
I say 'politely' because it's ok for us to agree to disagree.
We should perhaps provide supporting evidence for emphatic statements - this is how we'll learn from one another and take our EWP to a higher level.
cryptocurrency everytime
- #3,073
- Apr 18, 2014 10:03am Apr 18, 2014 10:03am
{quote} i politely disagree - take a look at pp. 38-40 of EWP. All of those diagonals span at least 2-3 months, which may very well be what we're looking at here. I say 'politely' because it's ok for us to agree to disagree.
i meant from my experience i never saw large degree diagonal
4 months in bitcoinland may equal to years in the normal world......... it's all relative... i remember KO comparing silver and bitcoin charts
think of bitcoin in dog years
- #3,074
- Apr 18, 2014 10:04am Apr 18, 2014 10:04am
{quote}the recent top formation is strange - i'm can't decide if it's a B wave to the high or a wave 5... doesn't matter really, we have a consensus pivot around 440, so another cup of coffee for me and enjoy the Friday night ride
Remind of a certain ATH in november, and a truncated fifth / double top / b wave That's great, once this one is done, we might get one more hint of where we are in the larger cycle,
- #3,075
- Apr 18, 2014 10:17am Apr 18, 2014 10:17am
- Joined Jul 2011 | Status: good | 4,295 Posts
cryptocurrency everytime
- #3,076
- Apr 18, 2014 10:27am Apr 18, 2014 10:27am
LTCUSD is pretty neat
http://i.imgur.com/hvu2WWX.png
But I had a question, I made a (insignificant) "mistake" on purpose on this chart to illustrate it. When we have a diagonal is it possible for the first b to move above the previous B ?
edit : LTC to 11 would be the equivalent of 450 for BTC, counter-trend movement are slower in time and progression, I don't think this move is a new trend,
edit 2 : Emptymind, it would also mean that your placement for wave iii and iv of 3 were better than mine
http://i.imgur.com/hvu2WWX.png
But I had a question, I made a (insignificant) "mistake" on purpose on this chart to illustrate it. When we have a diagonal is it possible for the first b to move above the previous B ?
edit : LTC to 11 would be the equivalent of 450 for BTC, counter-trend movement are slower in time and progression, I don't think this move is a new trend,
edit 2 : Emptymind, it would also mean that your placement for wave iii and iv of 3 were better than mine
- #3,078
- Apr 18, 2014 10:46am Apr 18, 2014 10:46am
LTCUSD is pretty neat {image} ...edit 2 : Emptymind, it would also mean that your placement for wave iii and iv of 3 were better than mine
- #3,079
- Apr 18, 2014 10:52am Apr 18, 2014 10:52am
- Joined Jul 2011 | Status: good | 4,295 Posts
LTCUSD is pretty neat {image} But I had a question, I made a (insignificant) "mistake" on purpose on this chart to illustrate it. When we have a diagonal is it possible for the first b to move above the previous B ? edit : LTC to 11 would be the equivalent of 450 for BTC, counter-trend movement are slower in time and progression, I don't think this move is a new trend,
I don't think your B-wave labels are incorrect anywhere... in my view B-waves are the random element in any wave. They "usually" form 3-wave structures that are easy to spot, but every now and again they show just how unpredictable and violent they can be! The EWP textbook places a conservative 138% maximum on B-wave expansion, but I know of at least one wave counter who has counted B-waves shooting out 300% and 500% the length of wave A - from ANY degree.
I first learnt respect for B-waves when I was trading the EurUsd and started noticing some really strange patterns in coming into and out of B-waves. Not sure if I still agree with all of my counting in this old chart but it illustrates my point of the B-wave being a vortex and wild:
cryptocurrency everytime
- #3,080
- Apr 18, 2014 10:53am Apr 18, 2014 10:53am
{quote} i remember because that wave iv was quite painful and took its time. and everythhing about it felt like a four. because the next part didn't make sense except as a diagonal atleast to me . i guess you mean because market moved back to previous wave 4 of lesser degree? and also i studied the relation of wave 1 to wave 3 wich was 300% i mremember so whatever comes next must be 4
It's kinda funny, I was rightly waiting for a new high but for the wrong reason/count. Well, served me just fine
And good point learnt Thanks for the answer about B waves, this chart is great Venzen, it has indeed some really strong target for B, almost always in the territory of the previous third.