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Bitcoin technical analysis

  • #3,041
  • Apr 17, 2014 6:07pm Apr 17, 2014 6:07pm
Quoting KiwiOz
"Mornin' All. Wave 4 STILL in progress. Ugly SOB.......Sitting at the Daily pivot which is a good sign. Should go down from here. I'm still getting 445. Warning, Warning. This ugly retrace has the potential to back as far as 510. The previous retrace went back 74%. This one has only got to 38% so far.....Doing so would turn this ugly duckling into a beautiful swan ABC........... {image}
non of the candles are closing above 50% retrace atleast on the 15m chart
50% is the max for a normal wave 4....

516 is wave 1 so .....510 would invalidate this as a wave 4
  • #3,042
  • Apr 17, 2014 6:10pm Apr 17, 2014 6:10pm
Quoting emptymind
{quote} non of the candles are closing above 50% retrace atleast on the 15m chart 50% is the max for a normal wave 4.... 516 is wave 1 so .....510 would invalidate this as a wave 4
Thanks mate. I'm cool with that. You, L_L & kingtour are teaching me a lot about EW..Cheers.
Money Makes Money
  • #3,043
  • Apr 17, 2014 6:21pm Apr 17, 2014 6:21pm
Quoting KiwiOz
{quote} Thanks mate. I'm cool with that. You, L_L & kingtour are teaching me a lot about EW..Cheers.
i wish i could understand your method but but you can't teach an old dog new tricks and im too lazy to learn.... (not that i mastered EW candle stuff i invented 5 minutes ago
  • #3,044
  • Apr 18, 2014 4:43am Apr 18, 2014 4:43am
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  • #3,045
  • Edited 7:05am Apr 18, 2014 6:54am | Edited 7:05am
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  • #3,046
  • Apr 18, 2014 7:57am Apr 18, 2014 7:57am
Hit the daily S1 at 457 Btc-e & 470 Bitstamp.......
more to come.?????????
Money Makes Money
  • #3,047
  • Apr 18, 2014 7:59am Apr 18, 2014 7:59am
Quoting KiwiOz
Hit the daily S1 at 457 Btc-e & 470 Bitstamp....... more to come.?????????
EW says correction is over. atleast my interpretation i think wave 5 of 5 extended ...
  • #3,048
  • Apr 18, 2014 8:02am Apr 18, 2014 8:02am
Quoting KiwiOz
Hit the daily S1 at 457 Btc-e & 470 Bitstamp....... more to come.?????????
more to come ... to the downside?

have you not seen my rocket?


also there is macd divergence............... if you compare 3 and 5
  • #3,049
  • Apr 18, 2014 8:35am Apr 18, 2014 8:35am
Quoting emptymind
{quote} more to come ... to the downside? have you not seen my rocket? also there is macd divergence............... if you compare 3 and 5
I am scared. BITSTAMP since 548 looks more like a leading triangle down to me. HUOBI has definitely broken the channel since 4.11
I will panic if price go any further down from here, since it's more like a ABC correction since 4.11
Let's see if your rocket could happen.
  • #3,050
  • Apr 18, 2014 8:45am Apr 18, 2014 8:45am
Sorry folks. I'm seeing down, down, down.........
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Money Makes Money
  • #3,051
  • Apr 18, 2014 8:48am Apr 18, 2014 8:48am
Quoting KiwiOz
Sorry folks. I'm seeing down, down, down......... {image} {image}
!!!!!!!
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Money Makes Money
  • #3,052
  • Apr 18, 2014 8:51am Apr 18, 2014 8:51am
BTC-e H4

messy chart but the red, orange and green dots summarize the analysis:

I am waiting for a signal from the grouped stochastics (stochasticized MACD with diff periods) at the top right hand corner. Either a blue dot should appear to indicate compound divergence across timeframes OR the stochs should all hit bottom to indicate complete oversold conditions. It may be (although unlikely) that the retrace goes all the way down to $370 at the 0.89 Fib.

I'm expecting a reversal at $440-450 near the 50% retracement level - just because that's what BTC likes to do and because it matches almost everyone here's analysis. Great to see the teamwork and alignment in getting direction (and targets) right for several weeks in a row!

Upside, I'll just wait for $680 - it seems inevitable that this pattern achieve at least 1.618 of the advance. This level also corresponds to the previous high in March. The roadbump at the recent high around $550 could drag out (or not) but $680 is my primary TP target for now.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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cryptocurrency everytime
  • #3,053
  • Apr 18, 2014 8:58am Apr 18, 2014 8:58am
Quoting venzen
BTC-e H4 messy chart but the red, orange and green dots summarize the analysis: I am waiting for a signal from the grouped stochastics (stochasticized MACD with diff periods) at the top right hand corner. Either a blue dot should appear to indicate compound divergence across timeframes OR the stochs should all hit bottom to indicate complete oversold conditions. It may be (although unlikely) that the retrace goes all the way down to $370 at the 0.89 Fib. I'm expecting a reversal at $440-450 near the 50% retracement level - just because that's what...
370. yes I'm getting 360. Close enough.....ABC retrace, HnS. Divergence. It's all there.....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Money Makes Money
  • #3,054
  • Apr 18, 2014 8:58am Apr 18, 2014 8:58am
Quoting KiwiOz
Sorry folks. I'm seeing down, down, down......... {image} {image}
i just want to say from my understanding using EW we connect wave 2 and wave 4 to form an uptrend line for an impulse. even if wave 4 moves sideways you still have to redraw the uptrend line. so uptrend will not break because you always have to move it wherever 4 goes
  • #3,055
  • Apr 18, 2014 9:01am Apr 18, 2014 9:01am
Quoting emptymind
{quote} i just want to say from my understanding using EW we connect wave 2 and wave 4 to form an uptrend line for an impulse. even if wave 4 moves sideways you still have to redraw the uptrend line. so uptrend will not break because you always have to move it wherever 4 goes
Problem is I'm seeing 4 on the small time frames only. Not on the large time frames. Another $20 lower & Bitcoin is in crappers ditch with leaky gumboots...
Money Makes Money
  • #3,056
  • Apr 18, 2014 9:03am Apr 18, 2014 9:03am
Quoting venzen
BTC-e H4 messy chart but the red, orange and green dots summarize the analysis: I am waiting for a signal from the grouped stochastics (stochasticized MACD with diff periods) at the top right hand corner. Either a blue dot should appear to indicate compound divergence across timeframes OR the stochs should all hit bottom to indicate complete oversold conditions. It may be (although unlikely) that the retrace goes all the way down to $370 at the 0.89 Fib. I'm expecting a reversal at $440-450 near the 50% retracement level - just because that's what...
excellent work venzen. i have no idea what the blue arrow means but i like it! some kind of bottom for wave 4 i guess.

don't forget we have to do 5 waves and spike into july............ so this talk of down move is not believable (sorry!)
  • #3,057
  • Apr 18, 2014 9:04am Apr 18, 2014 9:04am
My chariot is about to turn into a pumpkin. Stops in place. Off to bed.
Money Makes Money
  • #3,058
  • Apr 18, 2014 9:06am Apr 18, 2014 9:06am
Quoting kingtour
{quote} I am scared. BITSTAMP since 548 looks more like a leading triangle down to me. HUOBI has definitely broken the channel since 4.11 I will panic if price go any further down from here, since it's more like a ABC correction since 4.11 Let's see if your rocket could happen.
i don't understand what you're scare of. even if it was a leading diagonal it will still be 5 waves and take out your 548
  • #3,059
  • Apr 18, 2014 9:09am Apr 18, 2014 9:09am
Quoting KiwiOz
{quote} !!!!!!! {image}
KO, i just finished posting when i saw your updated chart... that's a bit shocking, but totally feasible - guess all it takes is for one bad news story to catalyze the mood and - DIP - airpocket drop to a new low.

Lately, I've noticed a lot of "tulip" remarks and Bitcoiners saying "I'm getting out - it's over for Bitcoin". While these are excellent contrarian signals, they might just reveal the very real possibility of another pessimistic downtrend.

For me a sign that the bears have taken control will be a daily candle close below $440 (on BTC-e).

Let's see - there's always money to be made at market bottoms - not to mention the possibility of buying in even cheaper at month end.
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #3,060
  • Apr 18, 2014 9:17am Apr 18, 2014 9:17am
Quoting emptymind
{quote} excellent work venzen. i have no idea what the blue arrow means but i like it! some kind of bottom for wave 4 i guess. don't forget we have to do 5 waves and spike into july............ so this talk of down move is not believable (sorry!)
hi emptymind,

thhe blue arrow is pointing to the grouped stochastic indicator which tends to bottom out at lows. It doesn't HAVE TO and sometimes the stochs diverge from price like all momentum indicators.

while they point down, at least, i anticipate lower lows until the market shows something else.
cryptocurrency everytime
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