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Bitcoin technical analysis

  • #2,861
  • Apr 13, 2014 7:36am Apr 13, 2014 7:36am
Quoting lady_luck
Good evening Emptymind, yes I have 3 waves for a on h1, and now 3 for b. Looks like c is now starting and if it is 0.618 of a it could be around 398. Is your LD still valid ? Kingtour, just realized with gox gone, it's now hard to get our hands on some historic charts. BTC has had very few overlap to confirm degree. Up to 2011 was definitely wave I, After that, not much to go on with. It would have helped if we could be sure there was a triangle and this was a wave 4, but we don't either. I'd say before 2011 was wave 1, and post 2012 to now would...
Red is too optimistic. Blue is more realistic. In the blue case, since wave 5 must be shorter than wave 3, it could be figured out that the top of Wave III is very likely somewhere $3000 by end of July 2014. Surprisingly, I think this $3000 target is very close to emptymind's estimation. Let's see if this will happen.
  • #2,862
  • Apr 13, 2014 9:27am Apr 13, 2014 9:27am
Quoting emptymind
{quote} prechter is an idiot. we are still in very early stages.(just look at the berkshire chart i posted earlier)... you should start worrying once we touch the 100,000 dollar level per bitcoin .even at that point it will achieve a stable orbit relative to all the major currencies.... all orbiting the sun (gold)
Not sure if it's true, but Prechter claimed that he had promoted BTC to his readers when it's 6 cents. If so, he is not an idiot for sure. I regret I haven't followed his letters back in 2010.

I am looking for evidences why he might be wrong this time (well, he was bullish on DJI in 1980 but he was bearish since 2000 so he might be making similar mistakes on BTC), unless we get enough evidences, $100 is always an option for a Wave II target.
  • #2,863
  • Edited 10:26am Apr 13, 2014 10:09am | Edited 10:26am
Good morning,

That does look like impulse and 5 waves structure, need to see more, but it definitely feels like we touched the bottom. So with 2 arround 380 next wave should be around 550 ?

Kingtour, yeah, red count is more optimistic, but if we compare wave I (2008 up to july 2011) was something like 50 000%, 2012 to april's peak was 4000% (including 1000% in jan and august 2012 ), and november 2013 900%.
All with no clear overlap. And a frequency of peak increasing. To me it shows smaller degrees.
We could still be in wave III for a few years, since we haven't exceed wave I (2011) target in price, and it's still shorter in time and distance.
Also the absence of overlap again.. I think it's only possible if the wave in question (mostly jan and aug 2012) are insignificant in proportion to what's in development.


As of Prechter, if he was really looking at BTC in 2010, well then one more reason for him to be a moron, since EW International officially only got into BTC 6 month ago...
  • #2,864
  • Apr 13, 2014 12:52pm Apr 13, 2014 12:52pm
Quoting lady_luck
Good morning, That does look like impulse and 5 waves structure, need to see more, but it definitely feels like we touched the bottom. So with 2 arround 380 next wave should be around 550 ? Kingtour, yeah, red count is more optimistic, but if we compare wave I (2008 up to july 2011) was something like 50 000%, 2012 to april's peak was 4000% (including 1000% in jan and august 2012 ), and november 2013 900%. All with no clear overlap. And a frequency of peak increasing. To me it shows smaller degrees. We could still be in wave III for a few years,...
That makes me more relaxed

Look at BITSTAMP now, what perfect textbook 8 waves! Hope it's real this time
  • #2,865
  • Apr 13, 2014 12:57pm Apr 13, 2014 12:57pm
Quoting kingtour
{quote} That makes me more relaxed Look at BITSTAMP now, what perfect textbook 8 waves! Hope it's real this time
Yes,i saw, it's beautiful, and their is some lovely fib everywhere on the btc-e chart.
Look like we got some pretty tulip seed
  • #2,866
  • Apr 13, 2014 2:17pm Apr 13, 2014 2:17pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: capture_04132014_230756.png Size: 195 KB


wave C is about 138.2% of wave A (almost)
  • #2,867
  • Apr 13, 2014 2:25pm Apr 13, 2014 2:25pm
that was a very shallow correction for wave 2. that means wave 3 will be quite powerful....... my guess is 261.8% of wave 1

wave 3 target = 658.2
it will extend of course
  • #2,868
  • Apr 13, 2014 2:34pm Apr 13, 2014 2:34pm
Quoting lady_luck
Good morning, That does look like impulse and 5 waves structure, need to see more, but it definitely feels like we touched the bottom. So with 2 arround 380 next wave should be around 550 ? Kingtour, yeah, red count is more optimistic, but if we compare wave I (2008 up to july 2011) was something like 50 000%, 2012 to april's peak was 4000% (including 1000% in jan and august 2012 ), and november 2013 900%. All with no clear overlap. And a frequency of peak increasing. To me it shows smaller degrees. We could still be in wave III for a few years,...
very interesting stats.. thank you LL
  • #2,869
  • Apr 13, 2014 4:13pm Apr 13, 2014 4:13pm
........100 dollars is about a rite target me think but we need to cross 297 first........I maybe wrong, being wrong before you know.....

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: btcusddaily.png Size: 41 KB
The Chonchy
  • #2,870
  • Apr 13, 2014 4:19pm Apr 13, 2014 4:19pm
......One thing is for sure......

Daily is down, all Moving averages under red ema 100, that is down in my book, pulling back but down......

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: btcusddaily.png Size: 41 KB


4H is down all MA under red ema......

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: btcusdh4.png Size: 36 KB


the only chart that is up is one hour, if it sync, we will go down some more.......

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: btcusdh1.png Size: 35 KB


and 30M is down as well all MA's under red ema 100.....

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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The Chonchy
  • #2,871
  • Apr 13, 2014 4:26pm Apr 13, 2014 4:26pm
Quoting chonchy
......One thing is for sure...... Daily is down, all Moving averages under red ema 100, that is down in my book, pulling back but down...... {image} 4H is down all MA under red ema...... {image} the only chart that is up is one hour, if it sync, we will go down some more....... {image} and 30M is down as well all MA's under red ema 100..... {image}
chonchy, moving averages is a lagging indicator. sorry, i do not mean to offend...
  • #2,872
  • Apr 13, 2014 5:04pm Apr 13, 2014 5:04pm
Sorry guy's n Gals but if Bitcoin can't get above 413 then I am with chonchy. There is nothing on the charts 1H & above to convince me to go long. Above 413 will set up a new pattern. Until then I will be seeking short targets. On the 1h I have 322. Then on the 4H I have 277. Both are agreeing with the daily chart which has shown 227 since the 23/3/14.....
We are now at a very important cross road. What's it to be. Above 413 to head for the moon, or below 380 to drop through the floor.???????
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: btcusdh4.png Size: 37 KB
Money Makes Money
  • #2,873
  • Apr 13, 2014 5:09pm Apr 13, 2014 5:09pm
Quoting KiwiOz
Sorry guy's n Gals but if Bitcoin can't get above 413 then I am with chonchy. There is nothing on the charts 1H & above to convince me to go long. Above 413 will set up a new pattern. Until then I will be seeking short targets. On the 1h I have 322. Then on the 4H I have 277. Both are agreeing with the daily chart which has shown 227 since the 23/3/14..... We are now at a very important cross road. What's it to be. Above 413 to head for the moon, or below 380 to drop through the floor.??????? {image}
it is your funeral (and chonchy's ).......... anyone else bearish?!
  • #2,874
  • Apr 13, 2014 5:37pm Apr 13, 2014 5:37pm
Quoting KiwiOz
Sorry guy's n Gals but if Bitcoin can't get above 413 then I am with chonchy. There is nothing on the charts 1H & above to convince me to go long. Above 413 will set up a new pattern. Until then I will be seeking short targets. On the 1h I have 322. Then on the 4H I have 277. Both are agreeing with the daily chart which has shown 227 since the 23/3/14..... We are now at a very important cross road. What's it to be. Above 413 to head for the moon, or below 380 to drop through the floor.??????? {image}
Yeah, I agree, we'll have a confirm of a new trend or not, in about soon.
To me,it look like this
http://i.imgur.com/XplhCaa.png
  • #2,875
  • Apr 13, 2014 6:05pm Apr 13, 2014 6:05pm
Interesting..Bitstamp & Btc-e are showing different levels & perhaps even different set-ups.?????
Money Makes Money
  • #2,876
  • Apr 13, 2014 6:23pm Apr 13, 2014 6:23pm
Quoting KiwiOz
Interesting..Bitstamp & Btc-e are showing different levels & perhaps even different set-ups.?????
I guess Bistamp differ since the first A wave after the ATH, the low was 380 while BTCE 420.
Even before that, the rise to the ATH was slower than btc-e in the 300 to 400 area. With signs of resistance around 315. 355 and 377 on stamp.
Also the July 2013 to november 27th wave up was a total of 1100 on stamp and closer to 1000 on BTC-e, changing slightly were the Fib lay.
Last, the obvious, BTCe spike down below 200, wile Bitsamp is somewhat triangle looking showing support around the 380 level again.
So I guess btc-e show pretty much no pivot, support and resistance in this price area, while Bitstamp had a bit more history of support.
May be that explain the variance on the perspective ?
  • #2,877
  • Apr 13, 2014 7:34pm Apr 13, 2014 7:34pm
Quoting kingtour
{quote} Red is too optimistic. Blue is more realistic. In the blue case, since wave 5 must be shorter than wave 3, it could be figured out that the top of Wave III is very likely somewhere $3000 by end of July 2014. Surprisingly, I think this $3000 target is very close to emptymind's estimation. Let's see if this will happen.
Hi kingtour.....I am no EW expert but I am sure the rule is wave 3 "Cannot be the shortest" It can shorter than wave 1. (very rare) or wave 5, but not both..Very often you see an extended wave 5 much longer than wave 3. Hope that makes sense...Cheers.
Money Makes Money
  • #2,878
  • Apr 13, 2014 7:47pm Apr 13, 2014 7:47pm
Good to see everybody using "textbook technical analysis" of BTC and hoping it will all come true, but be careful! What about the Fundamentals of BTC? Lots of interesting geo-political shenanigans behind the BTC.
Back before the Mt.Gox scandal and the Chinese Banks rejection of BTC, the technicals said BTC would appreciate, but it devalued to it's current price. I can see no reason why Fundies and Techies cannot exist together, and BTC is a classic case where they work in unison.

Happy Trading!
  • #2,879
  • Apr 13, 2014 7:50pm Apr 13, 2014 7:50pm
Quoting Taffy
Good to see everybody using "textbook technical analysis" of BTC and hoping it will all come true, but be careful! What about the Fundamentals of BTC? Lots of interesting geo-political shenanigans behind the BTC. Back before the Mt.Gox scandal and the Chinese Banks rejection of BTC, the technicals said BTC would appreciate, but it devalued to it's current price. I can see no reason why Fundies and Techies cannot exist together, and BTC is a classic case where they work in unison. Happy Trading!
Hi Taffy..Welcome aboard. You got a chart showing where the Tech's said to go long back then.??
Money Makes Money
  • #2,880
  • Apr 13, 2014 7:55pm Apr 13, 2014 7:55pm
Here's a Bitstamp chart. Take a look at my numbering 3 & 4....What if they were relabeled 1 & 2. Thinking on a BIG time scale.?????????
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: download.png Size: 79 KB
Money Makes Money
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