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Bitcoin technical analysis

  • #2,761
  • Apr 5, 2014 6:50am Apr 5, 2014 6:50am
Quoting venzen
{quote} hi emptymind, no i didn't do this because i was not aware that this would lift the transaction to a different level of escrow...and then wait for price to go your direction or not...
hello, ok, that almost happened with my first trade. there was 20 minutes left i got a message alert from LB so there was no way i can pay within 20 minutes so i just clicked on the blue button which made no sense to me.... but somewhere in super tiny font size i read "planning too" so that made me feel better. after you click you will also lock in the fiat price and know exactly how many bitcoins have been escrowed for you
  • #2,762
  • Edited 4:34pm Apr 5, 2014 7:16am | Edited 4:34pm
Quoting venzen
{quote} Morning KO! I closed a long at $455 about an hour ago, since i'm getting maxed out sell signals from my indicators across timeframes. Not sure if this might pop to a new low for the decline but i believe at least a trip to the lower tl at $440 is likely and below that a .618 retracement of the advance since $410. BTW, i just noticed your username all in red - i remember you mentioning this abt my username before and I don't know what its about: {image} M15 BTC-e {image}
Maybe because I had not refreshed the page for several hours as I had been away from the computer & left the page up...???????

I still think there is a possibility of this retracement going to 477 so still have long trade open with stop now at 438.
Something else I have noticed with bitcoin trading. The price hardly ever strays against you more than $50 (eg. 400 to 450) with no nasty spike to take out your stops like Gold.
If it does it means a genuine retracement. Even the present retrace if it goes to 477 would be only $60. Of course multiplied by your position size.
On the larger time frame this retrace could go to 555 without breaking the upper trend line.

Check out igot.com. for buying bitcoins.
Cheers.. Off to bed.
Money Makes Money
  • #2,763
  • Apr 5, 2014 12:22pm Apr 5, 2014 12:22pm
If BTC go to $100 is going to flush a lot noob investors, and i don't think they
are coming back.
  • #2,764
  • Edited 4:54am Apr 6, 2014 4:47am | Edited 4:54am
guess that wasn't a triangle. wave e must be shortest wave
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: u.png Size: 13 KB

509.98 - 416.11) * .618 - 465 = 407 (wave 5 target)
  • #2,765
  • Apr 6, 2014 12:35pm Apr 6, 2014 12:35pm
Quoting emptymind
guess that wasn't a triangle. wave e must be shortest wave {image} 509.98 - 416.11) * .618 - 465 = 407 (wave 5 target)

For now, I'm thinking of this ED :
LTC is further away from the end of wave 4, a diagonal in BTC would give it the time before they both simultaneously start wave 5 down.
edit : no enough space on this chart, but I'd see wave 5 around 380-390, let's even say 384 for old time sake

https://www.tradingview.com/x/VqufvSl6/
  • #2,766
  • Apr 6, 2014 8:55pm Apr 6, 2014 8:55pm
This makes great reading. I Really dont know where to start with Bitcoin and trading it though is there any place i can find more reading that you would suggest?

The internet is full of a lot of pants information
  • #2,767
  • Apr 6, 2014 9:02pm Apr 6, 2014 9:02pm
Quoting MrBurns
This makes great reading. I Really dont know where to start with Bitcoin and trading it though is there any place i can find more reading that you would suggest?
Hello,
Feel free to ask away also you have bitcointalk.org and coindesk.com.
  • #2,768
  • Apr 6, 2014 9:07pm Apr 6, 2014 9:07pm
Quoting lady_luck
{quote} Hello, Feel free to ask away also you have bitcointalk.org and coindesk.com.
Ok cool, Im ok with the whole escrow, buying and selling process and Ive looked into different wallets etc. The problem I have had is the charting, are Bitcoin/USD Bitcoin/GBP charts on MT4? Also can i trade Bitcoin just as I do Gold/Forex etc on a broker as a spreadbet?

Edit - I mean where can i find charts that enable drawing and technicals ?

Thanks
  • #2,769
  • Apr 6, 2014 9:21pm Apr 6, 2014 9:21pm
Quoting MrBurns
{quote} Ok cool, Im ok with the whole escrow, buying and selling process and Ive looked into different wallets etc. The problem I have had is the charting, are Bitcoin/USD Bitcoin/GBP charts on MT4? Also can i trade Bitcoin just as I do Gold/Forex etc on a broker as a spreadbet? Edit - I mean where can i find charts that enable drawing and technicals ? Thanks
For charting, tradingview.com is great, you click on charts and then type btcusd in the blank field. Also bitcoinwisdom.com is good for live charts and live light TA.
For the broker, you have bitfinex.com, and more generals choice like avatrade, MT and plus500. Most of us here are using btc-e.
  • #2,770
  • Apr 6, 2014 9:27pm Apr 6, 2014 9:27pm
Quoting lady_luck
{quote} For charting, tradingview.com is great, you click on charts and then type btcusd in the blank field. Also bitcoinwisdom.com is good for live charts and live light TA. For the broker, you have bitfinex.com, and more generals choice like avatrade, MT and plus500. Most of us here are using btc-e.
Thats great, thanks. Ill take a look at BTC-e & Tradingview at once! now i have some charts i can get myself moving.
  • #2,771
  • Edited 3:16am Apr 7, 2014 2:48am | Edited 3:16am
i think i was too early to dismiss the triangle idea.... still works!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: up.png Size: 14 KB


Quoting lady_luck
{quote} For now, I'm thinking of this ED : LTC is further away from the end of wave 4, a diagonal in BTC would give it the time before they both simultaneously start wave 5 down. edit : no enough space on this chart, but I'd see wave 5 around 380-390, let's even say 384 for old time sake {image}
great work, LL, both triangles and diagonals have same internal structure 3-3-3-3-3,,,,,,,, you watch btce and ill keep an eye on 'stamp.

Quoting MrBurns
{quote} ...where can i find charts that enable drawing and technicals ? Thanks
drawing? i use paint. it comes with windows!
techicals? whhat are those?!
  • #2,772
  • Apr 7, 2014 3:41am Apr 7, 2014 3:41am
Bitcoin falling again but for how long.?? There may be a bounce around 440 back up to 477...This would complete the major ABC retracement before wave 5 down starts.
Money Makes Money
  • #2,773
  • Edited 4:25am Apr 7, 2014 3:53am | Edited 4:25am
Quoting KiwiOz
Bitcoin falling again but for how long.?? There may be a bounce around 440 back up to 477...This would complete the major ABC retracement before wave 5 down starts.
wave 5 started at 464.19 best i can tell. so ,imho, there is no major trend change until market reach target of 406 {(509.98 - 416.11) * .618 - 464.19 = 406.17}

notice how the upward move from bottom at wave 3 is all corrective. everything is 3 waves. nothing impulsive. so this is definatly not the start of a new up trend. we need one more strong down wave until this whole correction is over cheers
  • #2,774
  • Apr 7, 2014 4:34am Apr 7, 2014 4:34am
Quoting emptymind
{quote} wave 5 started at 464.19 best i can tell. so ,imho, there is no major trend change until market reach target of 406 {(509.98 - 416.11) * .618 - 464.19 = 406.17} notice how the upward move from bottom at wave 3 is all corrective. everything is 3 waves. nothing impulsive. so this is definatly not the start of a new up trend. we need one more strong down wave until this whole correction is over cheers
Your probably right but best be careful until at least under 415....Cheers
Money Makes Money
  • #2,775
  • Apr 7, 2014 8:00pm Apr 7, 2014 8:00pm
Quoting KiwiOz
Bitcoin falling again but for how long.?? There may be a bounce around 440 back up to 477...This would complete the major ABC retracement before wave 5 down starts.
Ok We got the bounce on que. But not a large bounce yet........Now, will we go up or down.??
Next down target is 425........Then 390.
Up target is not clear. So. above 465 we look for a target over 500. Below 425 & the down trend continues.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: btcusdh1.png Size: 51 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: btcusdh4.png Size: 33 KB
Money Makes Money
  • #2,776
  • Apr 7, 2014 8:03pm Apr 7, 2014 8:03pm
Quoting emptymind
{quote} wave 5 started at 464.19 best i can tell. so ,imho, there is no major trend change until market reach target of 406 {(509.98 - 416.11) * .618 - 464.19 = 406.17} notice how the upward move from bottom at wave 3 is all corrective. everything is 3 waves. nothing impulsive. so this is definatly not the start of a new up trend. we need one more strong down wave until this whole correction is over cheers
Emptymind. Your target is smack in the middle of my 2 targets so as long as the down trend continues we are looking good........
Money Makes Money
  • #2,777
  • Apr 8, 2014 4:25am Apr 8, 2014 4:25am
Quoting KiwiOz
{quote} Emptymind. Your target is smack in the middle of my 2 targets so as long as the down trend continues we are looking good........
KO, that means your targeting system is failing

Attached Image
  • #2,778
  • Apr 8, 2014 5:50am Apr 8, 2014 5:50am
Quoting emptymind
{quote} KO, that means your targeting system is failing {image}
Bugga.Lol.
Money Makes Money
  • #2,779
  • Apr 8, 2014 9:03am Apr 8, 2014 9:03am
Where is everybody..Hey it's lonely in this room all by my ownself......... Aaahh bugga it I'm off to bed..
Money Makes Money
  • #2,780
  • Apr 8, 2014 3:46pm Apr 8, 2014 3:46pm
Quoting KiwiOz
Where is everybody..Hey it's lonely in this room all by my ownself......... Aaahh bugga it I'm off to bed..
Yes, things are boringly ranging between fib 38.2 and 61.8, and around the middle of BB. Indecision..
While EW let me think a new low, other indicator, made me consider an alt count (in red) for EW were fib 76.4 and the previous major support (purple ray) would be targets. Also if the red count was instead the end of 5 of 5 to the downside, the structure on TF30 wouldn't appear as a 3 waves structure.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/jo2apiVE/
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