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Bitcoin technical analysis

  • #2,621
  • Mar 29, 2014 11:40pm Mar 29, 2014 11:40pm
Quoting Chicky
{quote} Chonchy! This is one of the best posts I have ever read on trading philosophy. Watch the video clip, it shows how to tackle this market. I learned a lot from this post. http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...17#post7369017
......agree, I have learn a lot from it too, but not all times we can get away with our plans, some time they miserably fail, especially when we are not focus, or paying attention, there is no better lesson than, is best to be out of the market trying to get in than be in the market trying to get out, that is where I am rite now, for not being focus, nah, like I said, sorry will try not to let it happen again, Chicky, thanks.....
The Chonchy
  • #2,622
  • Mar 30, 2014 2:13am Mar 30, 2014 2:13am
Quoting chonchy
{quote} ......agree, I have learn a lot from it too, but not all times we can get away with our plans, some time they miserably fail, especially when we are not focus, or paying attention, there is no better lesson than, is best to be out of the market trying to get in than be in the market trying to get out, that is where I am rite now, for not being focus, nah, like I said, sorry will try not to let it happen again, Chicky, thanks.....
Hey chonchy,,What broker & what platform are you using.??
Money Makes Money
  • #2,623
  • Edited 4:32am Mar 30, 2014 4:18am | Edited 4:32am
Quoting chonchy
{quote} ......agree, I have learn a lot from it too, but not all times we can get away with our plans, some time they miserably fail, especially when we are not focus, or paying attention, there is no better lesson than, is best to be out of the market trying to get in than be in the market trying to get out, that is where I am rite now, for not being focus, nah, like I said, sorry will try not to let it happen again, Chicky, thanks.....
I hope things work out for you. After reading so many threads, it seems that controlling temptations is the weakness of many. I once carried a losing position for about 1,000 pips. I wanted to recover 1/3rd of my loss when I was 100 or 200 pips down. Then again 1/3rd of the loss when I was 600 or 700 pips down. It never retraced until I lost my account.

I think people should close as soon as it starts going against them, and wait for the market to become little more volatile for a recovery. It is more probable to regain 25 pips lost in a market that moved 70 pips on another day when market moves 200 pips. One bounce from a support/resistance or a break in a volatile market is likely to offer quick 25 pips. It is very difficult to recover a loss of 25 pips when market is ranging in 40 or 50 pips.The issue however is that we normally want to recover our losses as quickly as possible in just one trade and for this reason, we keep on increasing our bets, before we know it, we finally land in the Martingale frame of mind.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #2,624
  • Mar 30, 2014 7:22am Mar 30, 2014 7:22am
Venzen: All good here. Working a lot, so get only to check the price now and then. I'm still mining. I'm really looking forward to the bitshare project. I've mined 40 Protoshares, now BitSharePTS during christmas.

I guess it's time to buy some more coins now. Can't see the price go so much lower now.
BTC FTW
  • #2,625
  • Mar 30, 2014 7:58am Mar 30, 2014 7:58am
Quoting KiwiOz
{quote} Yeah, I think we are on the right track no matter what we call the pattern. 400 is a gimmee & 250 is now a possibility. Regarding Bitcoin & all Altcoins, I may be way off beam here but I think for Bitcoin to become a world wide alternative to fiat money it needs to become affordable.......If it is to become a commodity, price at any height is possible & can be likened to gold & silver etc. If it is to become a currency to purchase anything from an ice-cream to a Ferrari then affordability has to be the key. To do that it must come back in...
No need for gloves, it's a valid argument

Crypto is such a complex world.
Yes, newcomer don't want to own 0.16btc. You are right it's a psychological barrier. That's why some charting tool have already switched to smaller unit (mbtc on http://www.cryptocoincharts.info/).

The buying power is an other problem, if you can buy one icecream today but could have bought two the next day, it's ok. But if tomorrow you could have get an other ferari for your partner too, that might be upsetting.
For ice-cream, you are right, affordability would be great. But for a Ferrari, stability would be better.

Their is still more and more people racing to mine the last half of bitcoin not yet in circulation, i was looking for charts, but I couldn't find any, mining cost/revenue/mining power, is costing more for less reward for less earning. And yet it's expanding.

So back to a complex world, we have trader, investors, businesses, blue collar miners, low spender, high spender, so many category that wishes for the opposite of each other.. Giving us those great trading opportunity you mentioned

Once one or more of them have to give up, because BTC doesn't fit their expectation anymore, we'll see what's left and what crypto truly are.
As you said Reaching for USD parity, but also for gold parity or leaving the penny-stock category, might help to know who is BTC for.
  • #2,626
  • Mar 30, 2014 8:56am Mar 30, 2014 8:56am
why everyone make things so complicated with diagonal, triangles, wedge... here look how simple it is... i even calculate the wave 5 target too....

710 - (995-400)*.618 = 342 most likely bottom
Attached Image
  • #2,627
  • Mar 30, 2014 9:34am Mar 30, 2014 9:34am
Quoting emptymind
why everyone make things so complicated with diagonal, triangles, wedge... here look how simple it is... i even calculate the wave 5 target too.... 710 - (995-400)*.618 = 342 most likely bottom {image}
I think you are right. You said it a while ago, this is a wave 2. It's simple and it work. Finding a diagonal triangle would have confirm a C wave and a triangle a wave 4. This would have been great. But more simple is probably true.

Chicky, welcome here Sorry for overreacting, we do have a lot of people coming by full of critics and provocation toward the regulars, i didn't realized turning as nonconstructive as them,. So once again, sorry and welcome
  • #2,628
  • Mar 30, 2014 11:35am Mar 30, 2014 11:35am
Quoting KiwiOz
{quote} Hey chonchy,,What broker & what platform are you using.??
BTC-e, MT4.....
The Chonchy
  • #2,629
  • Mar 30, 2014 11:44am Mar 30, 2014 11:44am
Quoting Chicky
{quote} I hope things work out for you. After reading so many threads, it seems that controlling temptations is the weakness of many. I once carried a losing position for about 1,000 pips. I wanted to recover 1/3rd of my loss when I was 100 or 200 pips down. Then again 1/3rd of the loss when I was 600 or 700 pips down. It never retraced until I lost my account. I think people should close as soon as it starts going against them, and wait for the market to become little more volatile for a recovery. It is more probable to regain 25 pips lost in a...
I can agree more Chicky, that is in deed one of my biggest problems, marrying the loser, I do try to hit and run most of the time but some times, once in a while I get cut in a bad trade and instead of cutting it short I stubbornly marry here and carry on with the loss until is a bit late to not martingale or get in the martingale state of mind just like you just pointed out, thanks Chicky for all the tips and knowledge, well appreciated, do come back and post with us, don't have to be about BTC, just post general wisdom, your experience is welcome, like l_L said there is a lot of people that come with negative things about BTC and we don't need that, is just another instrument and we love to trade it, it respond well to Elliot waves and other forms of technical analysis, wish is why venzen brought us here, and we know it can go down as well as up just like any other instrument, but no body realy know if BTC is going to last longer than the dollar or for that Mather any other currency, if you ask me where you can have your money away from the banksters and away from the government sucking blood mofo's, without going true too much trouble? so only for that reason alone I think BTC will go far once people realize is safe to have it there and today you can buy almost anything with it, even a house or a car, without anybody taking an arm and a leg from you.......and you can mine it......
The Chonchy
  • #2,630
  • Mar 30, 2014 11:59am Mar 30, 2014 11:59am
......This monthly chart is up, all moving averages are pointing up over the red ema 100........

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.......This weekly is up also with all MA over Red Ema 100 also........blue ema 5 may slide over the choco ema 30 and go up at any of the two red horizontal lines or at the hit of the red ema 100......it may pull back there......

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.....And daily is on a channel down but also with all MA's under the red ema 100, so there is no sync for the up move, we need another wave up on the daily chart and for that we need to look at the lower time frames, keep and eye on the lower time frames and when they turn and daily turn for the up then we will go up me think....

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The Chonchy
  • #2,631
  • Mar 30, 2014 12:06pm Mar 30, 2014 12:06pm
....4H, one hour, and 30 minutes are all down, so the trend is down and it may continue down, but......I see a bit of oversold lagging indis that tell me that it could head up at any good news we may get or when the BTC specialists decide is time to buy again and head for the sky....but rite now we are down, and saling rallys we should be, with tite stops......

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The Chonchy
  • #2,632
  • Mar 30, 2014 1:35pm Mar 30, 2014 1:35pm
Quoting lady_luck
{quote} Arghh, I really can't tell if the next word will be hookers or eat more vegetables.. Suspense ! And suspense also with the PA, it look like a little triangle in the 4h chart, i'd say there is only one more wave down. May be 413, may be your 425 KO. Hmmm, now I really wish I knew if it was hookers or vegetable...
425 seems such a perfect and inevitable target. Just now price hit 450 (on BTC-e) and did the expected retracement to the upper Bollinger band...
maybe the institutions all pile in tomorrow (Monday) morning now that the US IRS has validated Bitcoin with a ruling and official status? (which is an asset - and seems perfect for Wall Street to create Bitcoin Investment Funds and derivative instruments)
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #2,633
  • Mar 30, 2014 1:38pm Mar 30, 2014 1:38pm
Quoting chonchy
{quote} I can agree more Chicky, that is in deed one of my biggest problems, marrying the loser, I do try to hit and run most of the time but some times, once in a while I get cut in a bad trade and instead of cutting it short I stubbornly marry here and carry on with the loss until is a bit late to not martingale or get in the martingale state of mind just like you just pointed out, thanks Chicky for all the tips and knowledge, well appreciated, do come back and post with us, don't have to be about BTC, just post general wisdom, your experience...
aah, good to hear you talk, chonchy!
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #2,634
  • Mar 30, 2014 2:41pm Mar 30, 2014 2:41pm
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  • #2,635
  • Edited 4:21pm Mar 30, 2014 3:09pm | Edited 4:21pm
Quoting emptymind
{image}
Hello emptymind, Venzen, chonchy,

Venzen, after talking about potcoin, I'm surprise you are expecting 425... Why not 420 ?
(jokes aside, if proportional to wave 1, I actually have 425 for wave5)

Emptymind, I think i ended up one subwave ahead... But would that work too ?
https://www.tradingview.com/x/PlmuX2AM/
  • #2,636
  • Mar 30, 2014 3:21pm Mar 30, 2014 3:21pm
I heard on the Let's Talk Bitcoin podcast that the next thing to probably blow up is the Bitcoin Fundation itself, about to get goxed.
BTC FTW
  • #2,637
  • Mar 30, 2014 6:49pm Mar 30, 2014 6:49pm
Quoting lady_luck
{quote} Hello emptymind, Venzen, chonchy, Venzen, after talking about potcoin, I'm surprise you are expecting 425... Why not 420 ? (jokes aside, if proportional to wave 1, I actually have 425 for wave5) Emptymind, I think i ended up one subwave ahead... But would that work too ? {image}
Sure, LL, your labels look right.... try to set aside some extra labels to make sure it reach 342
i think it's a wave 4. flats (3-3-5) are common and do occur in wave 4. c waves aren't very strong within flats. usually end just below wave a. (see my target!)....
  • #2,638
  • Mar 30, 2014 7:27pm Mar 30, 2014 7:27pm
Quoting lady_luck
{quote} Hello emptymind, Venzen, chonchy, Venzen, after talking about potcoin, I'm surprise you are expecting 425... Why not 420 ? (jokes aside, if proportional to wave 1, I actually have 425 for wave5) Emptymind, I think i ended up one subwave ahead... But would that work too ? {image}
There is a chance we are still in wave 3 with wave 4 already starting to form. Beware the wounded bull. Watch for a decent retracement. I have closed all my trades & now watching for a breakout in either direction. (To complete the down wave or to start an up wave.)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Money Makes Money
  • #2,639
  • Mar 30, 2014 7:39pm Mar 30, 2014 7:39pm
Quoting KiwiOz
{quote} There is a chance we are still in wave 3 with wave 4 already starting to form. Beware the wounded bull. Watch for a decent retracement. I have closed all my trades & now watching for a breakout in either direction. (To complete the down wave or to start an up wave.) {image}

Emptymind, KO. yes, what I got as 3 and 4 could also work as an extended iii and iv (close to 2.6), it could retrace to 490 ?
  • #2,640
  • Mar 30, 2014 7:47pm Mar 30, 2014 7:47pm
Quoting lady_luck
{quote} Emptymind, KO. yes, what I got as 3 and 4 could also work as an extended iii and iv (close to 2.6), it could retrace to 490 ?
Yes if it keeps retraceing from here I am getting a target at 512. That would be a standard ABC on the 1h chart. A major retrace would take it to 560 for me.
That's not to say it won't drop to our original target at 425 first. Standing by for confirmation either way. Should know soon.
Money Makes Money
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