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Bitcoin technical analysis

  • #2,581
  • Mar 24, 2014 6:05am Mar 24, 2014 6:05am
Quoting lady_luck
{quote} Welcome Kingtour and hello to everyone I hope you all had a great week-end. I hope execoin makes it soon to some more reliable exchanges. I don't really trust poloniex, seeing the way they dealt with their alleged hacking. And don't know much about the other. It sounds like a coin with good features. Regarding Huobi, they have started to offer BTC trading only 6month ago, the volume was low during that peak, their chart of the december wave is actually close to the LTC chart in shape and fib, they also have been accuse of faking their...
You could be right L_L....However I am not confident of any move lower than 400 at this time. I am confident in the move to 410 shown in this chart but I do not like the chances of the yellow targets. The move to 400 may be a perfect "setup" for a rebound to 700.....That would be nice..
I think it would take a "NEWS" spike to reach the 1st yellow line at 330..
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Money Makes Money
  • #2,582
  • Mar 24, 2014 10:31am Mar 24, 2014 10:31am
KiwiOz... Wanted to let you know I'm digging your "magnetic line" graphs/charts.

I haven't learned much about magnetic lines but find all your charts interesting!

Masalai
  • #2,583
  • Mar 24, 2014 1:21pm Mar 24, 2014 1:21pm
Quoting Masalai
KiwiOz... Wanted to let you know I'm digging your "magnetic line" graphs/charts. I haven't learned much about magnetic lines but find all your charts interesting! Masalai
Cheers mate.......Don't take them as gospel though. I'm not always right & they don't take into account the retracements on the way to the target. They have to be worked out on smaller time frames.
Money Makes Money
  • #2,584
  • Mar 24, 2014 3:58pm Mar 24, 2014 3:58pm
Quoting lady_luck
{quote} Welcome Kingtour and hello to everyone I hope you all had a great week-end. I hope execoin makes it soon to some more reliable exchanges. I don't really trust poloniex, seeing the way they dealt with their alleged hacking. And don't know much about the other. It sounds like a coin with good features. Regarding Huobi, they have started to offer BTC trading only 6month ago, the volume was low during that peak, their chart of the december wave is actually close to the LTC chart in shape and fib, they also have been accuse of faking their...
A few comments:
- I don't think any major Chinese exchange has a graph showing the triangle failing. Maybe you were talking about a spike in OKCOIN to 2600 level. Remember you cannot take spikes into consideration, e.g. the $102 price in BTCE should be excluded when you analyze BTCE's graphs.

- I don't think the trading volumn is fake for HUOBI or OKCOIN. You can fake the volumn but you cannot fake the liquidity. When MTGOX fails USD price on bitstamp goes to 400$ but it's never below 500$ on HUOBI. The liquidity is by far the best for BTC on HUOBI and LTC on OKCOIN. Once you traded there and see the actual liquidity you will know the trading volumn is true - 50 BTC in HUOBI or 1000 LTC in OKCOIN can be filled in seconds without moving the price by any meaningful amount. The reason why the trading volumn is huge is because of the 0-commission and day-traders. Perfect liquidity and zero-commission only makes the price chart more precise, not the reverse, I think.

- Triangle is a disaster because it typically appears right before the last leg up, which means a major reverse around $10000 level. I'd rather wish it's not a triangle but that's the first count I have now.
  • #2,585
  • Mar 24, 2014 5:14pm Mar 24, 2014 5:14pm
Hello traders, hello everybody, l_L, KO, venzen and all new comers, welcome.......

I need 600 to get out of my long but I think with what you guys are talking here, is going to be impossible, wish me luck.........

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The Chonchy
  • #2,586
  • Mar 24, 2014 10:52pm Mar 24, 2014 10:52pm
Quoting KiwiOz
{quote} Cheers mate.......Don't take them as gospel though. I'm not always right & they don't take into account the retracements on the way to the target. They have to be worked out on smaller time frames.
With all due respect, I take them as gospel! I've watched your targets for 3 months now and you've almost always been spot on. There was that one post a week or so ago where you called LTC top at $28 I believe if memory serves me correct. That was off, but other than that as I recall you've always been spot on and before I make any decision I always check this thread and see if you've made any predictions! Now, before I make your head any bigger than it has to be, I better be quiet now. Cheers!
  • #2,587
  • Mar 25, 2014 1:25am Mar 25, 2014 1:25am
Quoting dcramer16
{quote} With all due respect, I take them as gospel! I've watched your targets for 3 months now and you've almost always been spot on. There was that one post a week or so ago where you called LTC top at $28 I believe if memory serves me correct. That was off, but other than that as I recall you've always been spot on and before I make any decision I always check this thread and see if you've made any predictions! Now, before I make your head any bigger than it has to be, I better be quiet now. Cheers!
Lol..Cheers mate
Money Makes Money
  • #2,588
  • Edited 7:36am Mar 25, 2014 7:18am | Edited 7:36am
Good morning

KO, i'll have to agree with Masalai and dcramer, if you were to start a church of analysis I'd join You're charts are always valuable !
Sorry I think my previous post wasn't so clear.
I'm not expecting anything lower than 400 neither, this wave 4 triangle idea has been my main count since january. and still is.
Since now is almost the time for it to unfold, I just try to consider everything that could be wrong. Starting by doubting the chinese exchanges since the PA is so close to the apex while bitstamp still have space.
Kingtour, I honestly agree with everything you say, very good arguments

That may illustrate what I mean about chinese exchanges, the plain line are for bitstamp. While btcchina (and by extension bter, okcoin, huobi),in purple, has already almost completed the triangle, bitstamp haven't (still missing a fifth leg down "e" at 400ish).
https://www.tradingview.com/x/u1xiMI2y/
  • #2,589
  • Mar 25, 2014 10:09am Mar 25, 2014 10:09am
Quoting lady_luck
Good morning KO, i'll have to agree with Masalai and dcramer, if you were to start a church of analysis I'd join You're charts are always valuable ! Sorry I think my previous post wasn't so clear. I'm not expecting anything lower than 400 neither, this wave 4 triangle idea has been my main count since january. and still is. Since now is almost the time for it to unfold, I just try to consider everything that could be wrong. Starting by doubting the chinese exchanges since the PA is so close to the apex while bitstamp still have space. Kingtour,...
Yeah, let's watch how things unfolded. It's a fair expectation that bitstamp can reach 400s again to complete wave E with a news spike.

Actually I do believe, and please keep in mind that there seems to be some slight difference for wave structure of BTC on different exchanges - arbitrage makes things converge but the major population on these exchanges do differ.

For example, what's the orthodox top of BTC?

For Chinese exchanges, it's Nov 18. On that date, HUOBI's BTC reached 1289USD, an all time high among all major exchanges. From this point you can draw the upper line for the triangle, precisely on HUOBI's chart. BTCCHINA had a new high on Nov 29, but the last leg up looks a typical irregular top B in three waves.

On the other hand, BITSTAMP had a new high on Nov 29, and the last leg up is a typical 5 wave structure. In addition, wave A precisely end at the beginning of this last wave 5 on Dec 17. MT.GOX, a new high on Nov 29, but from the wave structure, I believe Dec 5 is the end of the last 5 waves up, which fail to make a new high.

Anyway, Nov 18 is the orthodox top of BTC in China, but not for the USD world until Dec 5.

Therefore I wouldn't be surprised if the bottom comes half a month apart in these exchanges this time.
  • #2,590
  • Edited 10:42am Mar 25, 2014 10:23am | Edited 10:42am
why mine is different?

$523.80 is support.

$562.61 is a buy 4 me, if retraces. Stop below 523.80.
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Markets are not Random, they are designed!
  • #2,591
  • Mar 26, 2014 5:51am Mar 26, 2014 5:51am
Quoting chonchy
Hello traders, hello everybody, l_L, KO, venzen and all new comers, welcome....... I need 600 to get out of my long but I think with what you guys are talking here, is going to be impossible, wish me luck......... {image}
well we got to 590 but not 600, close but no cigar........

KiwiOz there is a good spot by my house for a good church, I could be of some help, I will hold the cros.......good analysis mate, good in deed, thanks....

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The Chonchy
  • #2,592
  • Mar 26, 2014 6:02am Mar 26, 2014 6:02am
....If we get to the red ema 100, I may bail out, I don't like it, I will wait for a better set up, if l_L triangle is correct, we are going down again, what do you think KO, should I stay or should I go?

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The Chonchy
  • #2,593
  • Mar 26, 2014 6:30am Mar 26, 2014 6:30am
Quoting chonchy
....If we get to the red ema 100, I may bail out, I don't like it, I will wait for a better set up, if l_L triangle is correct, we are going down again, what do you think KO, should I stay or should I go? {image}
hahaa. Cheers mate..
At a loss right now. Price doesn't want to go anywhere. Just as much chance to go up as down.
Looks suspiciously like a double bottom on the 4h chart. If that was to play out the target would be 630 to 645.
If not we continue on down to 400 target. 412 to be precise.
Rather confusing PA this week.
Money Makes Money
  • #2,594
  • Edited 9:09am Mar 26, 2014 8:56am | Edited 9:09am
Yes, it's confusing (but that's usual for me lol.).

I was thinking about what you said kingtour, it makes sens that the target and time varies from an exchange to an other. But I don't remember seeing exchange on two different wave at the same time.
I mean, if huobi/china had completed their triangle, then they would now be in wave i of 1 of... While stamp and btc-e and other would still be in wave e of IV.
Also, as Raza said, 528 was a buy.
And yes, if we eliminate the extreme low from stamps chart (i.e. 400 zone), then the triangle would be similar (as of the wave degree) as the one on huobi.

So here is stamp chart, with two potential bottom line for the triangle. Looking at support the line at 528 makes more sens, what do you think ?
If so, wave IV is over and now starting wave 1 of V...

http://i.imgur.com/naIFYiZ.png

The only argument against this theory is the LTC/USD chart, the triangle was pretty neat, and wasn't impacted by outside circumstances (unlike btc/usd). Yet, now, it's the more incomplete of all. And their is not such a redrawing possible for the bottom of the triangle.

http://i.imgur.com/yZDAuHH.png

EDIT : the triangle on huobi is breaking up (from the apex), and same thing would happen if stamp were to move over 600 at the upper line... Confusing indeed..
  • #2,595
  • Mar 26, 2014 2:45pm Mar 26, 2014 2:45pm
Quoting lady_luck
Yes, it's confusing (but that's usual for me lol.). I was thinking about what you said kingtour, it makes sens that the target and time varies from an exchange to an other. But I don't remember seeing exchange on two different wave at the same time. I mean, if huobi/china had completed their triangle, then they would now be in wave i of 1 of... While stamp and btc-e and other would still be in wave e of IV. Also, as Raza said, 528 was a buy. And yes, if we eliminate the extreme low from stamps chart (i.e. 400 zone), then the triangle would be similar...
Don't feel too confused. On HUOBI the upper line is at 3720 now, and the upper line and lower line of the triangle intersects soon at 3620. There will be an answer soon.

For LTCUSD I don't think it's a triangle. Starting from Feb 25 is a five wave up (Ignore spike on Mar 5). Sometimes Triangle's 4D-4E may be actually 5-1 and 5-2.
  • #2,596
  • Mar 26, 2014 10:27pm Mar 26, 2014 10:27pm
Quoting KiwiOz
{quote} hahaa. Cheers mate.. At a loss right now. Price doesn't want to go anywhere. Just as much chance to go up as down. Looks suspiciously like a double bottom on the 4h chart. If that was to play out the target would be 630 to 645. If not we continue on down to 400 target. 412 to be precise. Rather confusing PA this week.
yep I'm in the red too......

.......And if that isn't enough we have a new potcoin competitor, lol.......



http://m.motherjones.com/politics/20...rrency-potcoin



http://m.motherjones.com/files/image...1.11.35_pm.png
The Chonchy
  • #2,597
  • Mar 27, 2014 9:47am Mar 27, 2014 9:47am
Quoting chonchy
{quote} yep I'm in the red too...... .......And if that isn't enough we have a new potcoin competitor, lol....... http://m.motherjones.com/politics/20...rrency-potcoin {image}
Choncy, careful not to get ash on the carpet while you're "mining" potcoin !

Price seems determined to go below 500, I see L_L and KO targets in the low 400s and I'm somehow reminded of a 450 target we mentioned in December...

I'm just going to wait until it "looks" like the triangle since December has concluded. US IRS (capital gains tax), China pervasive BTC ban, Mt Gox woes, it seems right price should go down.
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #2,598
  • Mar 27, 2014 9:50am Mar 27, 2014 9:50am
Venzen... I'm watching it too... lots of red. Not sure where a bottom will be found here. Quite the selloff though.
  • #2,599
  • Mar 27, 2014 10:12am Mar 27, 2014 10:12am
Quoting chonchy
{quote} yep I'm in the red too...... .......And if that isn't enough we have a new potcoin competitor, lol....... http://m.motherjones.com/politics/20...rrency-potcoin {image}
PotCoin ftw. I got loads of freshly minted potcoins The android wallet should be the killer app for that.
BTC FTW
  • #2,600
  • Mar 27, 2014 10:29am Mar 27, 2014 10:29am
Quoting smartypants
{quote} PotCoin ftw. I got loads of freshly minted potcoins The android wallet should be the killer app for that.
smartypants, hope you're well.

GL with the Potcoin... btw, are you aware of the Norwegian coin called "Coinaaa"?
cryptocurrency everytime
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