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Bitcoin technical analysis

  • #2,481
  • Edited 10:34am Feb 27, 2014 9:43am | Edited 10:34am
Hello everyone,

KO, I hope you'll have a great time in Tasmania, if you haven't been before, it's amazingly beautiful, might remind you a lot of NZ

Emptymind, good point, I see what you mean. And I agree with you on all point as for direction and target for the coming month on BTC.
The dow, already had 100years of past history and cycle in 1987 could that change the degree or it doesn't matter ?
Also I'm curious, what's your current wave count ? I don't know if you see it, but I've got and ED on LTC/USD, do you think it's completed ?

edit : here is the fractal i was talking about :
(It hold some interesting meaning about cycle)
Also have a look at the RSI, fib, BB and MACD on both TF. And even the time relation seems similar.

http://i.imgur.com/0DkbIEu.png
  • #2,482
  • Feb 27, 2014 9:48am Feb 27, 2014 9:48am
Quoting KiwiOz
Looks like todays target is the daily Pivot. BTC-e 1h MT4 chart. {image}
Hey, Could you please share that pivot indicator? I searched quite a while for such an indicator but non of them were quite what i was looking for. The one on your chart seems promissing
  • #2,483
  • Feb 27, 2014 3:13pm Feb 27, 2014 3:13pm
I see a bit of up, so I took the train north for a bit.....

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: btcusdm15.png Size: 38 KB
The Chonchy
  • #2,484
  • Feb 27, 2014 3:22pm Feb 27, 2014 3:22pm
My take is that BTC is going to this blue ema 5 and bounce down.........

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: btcusdweekly.png Size: 30 KB
The Chonchy
  • #2,485
  • Feb 27, 2014 3:30pm Feb 27, 2014 3:30pm
On this daily is the choco ema 30 the target......

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: btcusddaily.png Size: 38 KB
The Chonchy
  • #2,486
  • Feb 27, 2014 3:34pm Feb 27, 2014 3:34pm
Quoting chonchy
On this daily is the choco ema 30 the target...... {image}
Hello Chonchy
How are things in the house ?
Nice charts, looks like we all have almost the same targets here
  • #2,487
  • Feb 27, 2014 3:41pm Feb 27, 2014 3:41pm
On 4 Hours is the red ema 100, if it cross it could go up, but if it bounce here at the red ema 100 all time frames are in sync for a much further down.....

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: btcusdh4.png Size: 36 KB
The Chonchy
  • #2,488
  • Feb 28, 2014 2:45am Feb 28, 2014 2:45am
Quoting Z12
{quote} Hey, Could you please share that pivot indicator? I searched quite a while for such an indicator but non of them were quite what i was looking for. The one on your chart seems promissing

Sorry mate you will have to wait a coupla weeks til' i get back to my MT4 charts
Money Makes Money
  • #2,489
  • Feb 28, 2014 3:32am Feb 28, 2014 3:32am
I'm afraid some other exchanges will have pressures like mtgox had. The only real exchanges that exist are btc-e and bitstamp.
BTC-E nobody knows exactly where are they are from, speculation is from Russia/Slovenia. If we lose one more exchange I think a "exchange run" could happen and this could go down really fast.

I would get out of bitcoin right now, just let this bubble die and eventually a new bubble cycle will re start and I want to hold fiat and be prepared for that.
This thread is great btw
  • #2,490
  • Feb 28, 2014 5:10am Feb 28, 2014 5:10am
hi all,

IF any bad news about Mark Karpeles were to appear in the media - such as previous charges of financial or personal crimes - what would we expect from BTC price?

Should this kind of story appear (and let's say we were lucky enough to have a friend who works in the media to warn us of such a story) then we could see BTC drop as it always does on shocks. The sell-off may hit $400 (BTC-e) or do the "double-tap" of it's last correction low near $102.

Of course it would be followed by swift retracement to where it dropped from... so 2 trades in there.

Good Luck
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #2,491
  • Feb 28, 2014 6:32am Feb 28, 2014 6:32am
Quoting venzen
hi all, IF any bad news about Mark Karpeles were to appear in the media - such as previous charges of financial or personal crimes - what would we expect from BTC price? Should this kind of story appear (and let's say we were lucky enough to have a friend who works in the media to warn us of such a story) then we could see BTC drop as it always does on shocks. The sell-off may hit $400 (BTC-e) or do the "double-tap" of it's last correction low near $102. Of course it would be followed by swift retracement to where it dropped from... so 2 trades...
Venzen !

We are missing you around here
I've read your article about Pony, good stuff !

I don't expect much changes in relation to Karpeles situation. But we might be looking at a great opportunity for government official to jump in and save the day, bring some futile and stupid regulation and that might be carrying more weight than the Karpeles situation.
  • #2,492
  • Feb 28, 2014 7:55am Feb 28, 2014 7:55am
So MtGox has just requested bankruptcy protection in Japan and Karpeles' lawyers are drafting a statement for mtgox.com as we speak. Karpeles seems intent on fixing things by slowly repaying users with fees generated from what I've garnered.

All in all, the bankruptcy seems to have been priced in to a very large extent. Nothing more than a dent.
  • #2,493
  • Feb 28, 2014 8:44am Feb 28, 2014 8:44am
Quoting Jmahh
So MtGox has just requested bankruptcy protection in Japan and Karpeles' lawyers are drafting a statement for mtgox.com as we speak. Karpeles seems intent on fixing things by slowly repaying users with fees generated from what I've garnered. All in all, the bankruptcy seems to have been priced in to a very large extent. Nothing more than a dent.
Fees generated from where? Will anyone else be dumb enough to use that site anymore? Even assuming they are able to re-open again...
  • #2,494
  • Feb 28, 2014 9:51am Feb 28, 2014 9:51am
Quoting dcramer16
{quote} Fees generated from where? Will anyone else be dumb enough to use that site anymore? Even assuming they are able to re-open again...
The same is on my mind. There are also rumors of handing out new exchange shares to gox account holders. Everyone's waiting for the mtgox.com update right now. I've talked to Karpeles on IRC and he made a relatively relaxed, honest and motivated impression. He's also working with one Daniel Kelman, who drafted a proposal for reorganization (see http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comm...les_voluntary/).

Sorry if this is slightly off-trading-topic.
  • #2,495
  • Feb 28, 2014 11:22am Feb 28, 2014 11:22am
Quoting lady_luck
{quote} Venzen ! We are missing you around here I've read your article about Pony, good stuff ! I don't expect much changes in relation to Karpeles situation. But we might be looking at a great opportunity for government official to jump in and save the day, bring some futile and stupid regulation and that might be carrying more weight than the Karpeles situation.
...Agree....
The Chonchy
  • #2,496
  • Mar 2, 2014 6:43am Mar 2, 2014 6:43am
Hi All!

Great to be missed and will rejoin you soon in analysis. You have NO IDEA how busy i've been on various side projects... writing articles, moving house, setting up a mining pool... I'll tell all later. And of course, the Tulipcoin has not been forgotten!


The article I mentioned on Friday has just been published - in French. An English version follows in about an hour.
http://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/2014/...ent-pas-dhier/

Because all the communication about this has been in French I am not too certain what the details are, but the gist of it is that Mark Karpeles, some years ago, received a court judgment for Attempted Fraud and Defamation. The person who took took him to court has spoken out and this is what the article is about - including some proof I hope. Again, because I can't speak French, I'm not sure these are the exact facts, we'll find out later...

Let's see what the effect is on price - maybe nothing? With Gox completely destroyed, I doubt Karpeles news will have the impact I imagined on Friday.
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #2,497
  • Mar 2, 2014 6:55am Mar 2, 2014 6:55am
Now, some frenzied emails going around... the editor wants to pull the article and publish tomorrow... anyway there we have it... not sure it's going to kneecap Bitcoin - although price is making that long plateau before a drop isn't it?
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #2,498
  • Edited 9:14am Mar 2, 2014 7:06am | Edited 9:14am
Quoting venzen
Now, some frenzied emails going around... the editor wants to pull the article and publish tomorrow... anyway there we have it... not sure it's going to kneecap Bitcoin - although price is making that long plateau before a drop isn't it?
Good morning,
Yes i get 404 on the article.
I'm glad to hear you are still around ! If there is some french stuff (email, chat, article) you want to get translated, feel free to PM me or to post it here

Venzen, as usual, I saw the same plateau as you, and was about to post this :
I know you don't like much double zigzag and WXY, but, here is the idea, the plateau you describe would be the same shape on every wave 1 of every C
(Y) is only a general idea of direction, ran out of space for targets, but I guess it would be close to the 280 that KO mentioned couple of weeks back.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/hfSsbcom/
edit : 1 and 2 of C (W) are supposed to be a tiny bit more on the right (it's one more of those plateau),
And i forgot to write B of (Y) above the last c
  • #2,499
  • Mar 2, 2014 6:07pm Mar 2, 2014 6:07pm
Hey Lady Luck, you're invested in Litecoin too aren't you? Do you have any idea why such the massive dump today??
  • #2,500
  • Mar 3, 2014 7:34am Mar 3, 2014 7:34am
The article starts with a documented case of fraud by Karpelès, against a french citizen Dubois (cover name) Karpeles' company was found quilty by japanese courts in that case.
Karpeles is said to be an IT genius having fled Paris after a first IT fraud case. He first set up a company in Morocco, and then in Japan. He is said to be the owner of the crashed bitcoin platform, and claims to having been defrauded of 480 millions dollars, witch leaves the author of the article doubtful.



Quoting venzen
Hi All! Great to be missed and will rejoin you soon in analysis. You have NO IDEA how busy i've been on various side projects... writing articles, moving house, setting up a mining pool... I'll tell all later. And of course, the Tulipcoin has not been forgotten! The article I mentioned on Friday has just been published - in French. An English version follows in about an hour. http://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/2014/...ent-pas-dhier/ Because all the...
Patience is magic
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