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XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

  • #32,481
  • Feb 10, 2014 10:06pm Feb 10, 2014 10:06pm
Looked at a chart lately?

Yeah, bears really taking advantage of all these opportunities. EHEM....

1300 and 1315 next targets. remain. 1350 and 1550 remain as well.

EVEN IF GOLD sells off the best the bears can hope for as of now is a test of support around 1250. after trying to pass through 1270/1268 areas.



Quoting The Rhodie
Watch gold sell of now. In one hour it has not been able to breach 1273.8. Bears in control. If it does break up, then it's really going after 1278.
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XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #32,482
  • Feb 10, 2014 11:03pm Feb 10, 2014 11:03pm
Quoting Spec_And
Moving higher again after the BS attempt to sell gold on those crap NFP numbers. Been making higher lows in Feb so far, looks like an ascending triangle to me. {image}
Broke out.
"Where you want to be is always in control, never wishing, always trading.
  • #32,483
  • Feb 10, 2014 11:20pm Feb 10, 2014 11:20pm
Gold Daily

Chinese buyers resume purchases and investors note further stimulus cuts.
Bullion for delivery up 0,8% 1,284.34

$SPDR holdings unchanged

Gold support may come from haven purchases as a result of rout in EM

Shanghai demand rose to 25,725 Kg

Chinese demand has probably overtaken India, surging 41% to 1,1764.4 metric tons in 2013,

Technically still a bear market. note diamond reversal pattern target 1323.x
Support has moved up to 1,266 final resistance (3-6 months) 1,420
Edit: Trading disclosure I am open long on H&S pattern (target 1335 / Invalidation 1222 profit locks above BE holding long.

Have a good day
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  • #32,484
  • Feb 10, 2014 11:21pm Feb 10, 2014 11:21pm
looks like a descending triangle break-out? my target is the high from august 2013 (1423).
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  • #32,485
  • Feb 11, 2014 12:13am Feb 11, 2014 12:13am
Quoting tsorin
looks like a descending triangle break-out? my target is the high from august 2013 (1423). {image}
I'm targeting 1340s, then 1420s. Imo its clear blue skies above the 1260-1270 area.
"Where you want to be is always in control, never wishing, always trading.
  • #32,486
  • Feb 11, 2014 12:24am Feb 11, 2014 12:24am
Quoting Spec_And
{quote} I'm targeting 1340s, then 1420s. Imo its clear blue skies above the 1260-1270 area.
right, looks good, but we have to be aware of a potential pull-back on the downward trendline. I hope it won't be the case and would signal a strong leg up.
It's amazing to see the sentiment: at this level >50% are on the sell. Just in October last year (at 13xx level) >80% were long.
Sentiment squeeze?
  • #32,487
  • Feb 11, 2014 12:56am Feb 11, 2014 12:56am
Quoting tsorin
{quote} right, looks good, but we have to be aware of a potential pull-back on the downward trendline. I hope it won't be the case and would signal a strong leg up. It's amazing to see the sentiment: at this level >50% are on the sell. Just in October last year (at 13xx level) >80% were long. Sentiment squeeze?
Well the majority is always wrong and it makes sense because only the minority makes money trading.
"Where you want to be is always in control, never wishing, always trading.
  • #32,488
  • Feb 11, 2014 1:06am Feb 11, 2014 1:06am
Quoting Steve J
An elementary question: why are the previous results for the non-farm payrolls not tallying to the actual results when viewed? If one goes to the home page of FF we see tabulated: Actual Forecast Previous Jan 10 2014 74K 196K 241K Dec 06 2013 203K 180K 200K Why isn't the December "Actual" figure 241K?
Because the BLS revised all 2013 NFP numbers with February's NFP release. Please see the following for more information: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-0...look-and-after
  • #32,489
  • Feb 11, 2014 1:28am Feb 11, 2014 1:28am
Quoting Uglybug
{quote} Good luck with that. Personally, I think it's heading south.
u need your compass check i'm afraid.
btw calling this out without actual level and reasoning is not much useful.
  • #32,490
  • Feb 11, 2014 1:36am Feb 11, 2014 1:36am
If silence is golden, then I'm going to shutup and get rich.
You win, you lose. All else is history. The future does not exist.
  • #32,491
  • Feb 11, 2014 1:46am Feb 11, 2014 1:46am
Quoting The Rhodie
If silence is golden, then I'm going to shutup and get rich.
  • #32,492
  • Feb 11, 2014 2:27am Feb 11, 2014 2:27am
Good day

XAUUSD

Potential setup, specific strat bull flag / falling wedge continuation

Any late comers may benefit, there are higher targets with this entry based on Daily charts

G/L

EDIT: execution buy the break of 1285.4, Stop 1281 target 1295, 1305, 1318, 1325, 1335
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  • #32,493
  • Feb 11, 2014 2:29am Feb 11, 2014 2:29am
Quoting Spec_And
{quote} Well the majority is always wrong and it makes sense because only the minority makes money trading.
Sure, but I think the majority is usually wrong only at the major turning points. When I said "sentiment" I meant sentiment of retail traders, taken for common sites.

I tend to trust mostly weekly charts and I try to keep the analysis as simple as possible. The candle that broke the triangle needs to be confirmed by the end of the week. Anyways, of significance to me is the failed swing at the end of January.
All the best....
  • #32,494
  • Feb 11, 2014 3:01am Feb 11, 2014 3:01am
Consider this logic:

Market in gold has been bullish since 27th Dec 2013. Looking to short the market as an idea is great, provided you are net long and in a positive equity and increasing balance along the way. If you find that your balance has consistently been dropping then you know your analysis is 100% wrong. Your balance will always tell you whether you are doing the right thing or not.
You win, you lose. All else is history. The future does not exist.
  • #32,495
  • Feb 11, 2014 3:24am Feb 11, 2014 3:24am
As soon as I "think" I'm right, I'm wrong. When I know I'm right, then I'm right until the market moves against me. Opinions are free, but winning trades come at a huge cost. Are you prepared to lose everything on right opinions or right analysis? Opinions change, analysis does not. The market always tells the truth, opinions are based on emotions.
You win, you lose. All else is history. The future does not exist.
  • #32,496
  • Feb 11, 2014 3:39am Feb 11, 2014 3:39am
Quoting The Rhodie
As soon as I "think" I'm right, I'm wrong. When I know I'm right, then I'm right until the market moves against me. Opinions are free, but winning trades come at a huge cost. Are you prepared to lose everything on right opinions or right analysis? Opinions change, analysis does not. The market always tells the truth, opinions are based on emotions.
the same here that's why I trade only 1.5 to 2% of my capital for 1 single trade. nowadays, I avoid opening more than 2-3 trades in the same time. Survival comes first and this is how I could be alive in the last year.....
  • #32,497
  • Feb 11, 2014 3:58am Feb 11, 2014 3:58am
Quoting tsorin
{quote} the same here that's why I trade only 1.5 to 2% of my capital for 1 single trade. nowadays, I avoid opening more than 2-3 trades in the same time. Survival comes first and this is how I could be alive in the last year.....
Do you mean you risk 2% of your capital on each trade? Trading 2% of your capital on 1 trade seems kind of over-conservative to me...
"Where you want to be is always in control, never wishing, always trading.
  • #32,498
  • Feb 11, 2014 4:14am Feb 11, 2014 4:14am
Quoting Spec_And
{quote} Do you mean you risk 2% of your capital on each trade? Trading 2% of your capital on 1 trade seems kind of over-conservative to me...
Conservative risk is good money management skill. Consider that the opposite in effect is gambling... Are you a trader or a gambler?
You win, you lose. All else is history. The future does not exist.
  • #32,499
  • Feb 11, 2014 4:45am Feb 11, 2014 4:45am
Quoting The Rhodie
{quote} Conservative risk is good money management skill. Consider that the opposite in effect is gambling... Are you a trader or a gambler?
yes, I have learned it the hard way. Everything else is just gambling and I like too much trading to gamble. If you keep a strict risk management, then you can decrease the costs of learning, because I do not think you can get rich unless you trade for 8-10 years, and have at least - 5 zeros portfolio
  • #32,500
  • Feb 11, 2014 5:01am Feb 11, 2014 5:01am
Quoting The Rhodie
{quote} Conservative risk is good money management skill. Consider that the opposite in effect is gambling... Are you a trader or a gambler?
I think 1% risk on a swing trade is pretty standard for most traders, assuming the account is 100k, 1% risk is only 1k, that really isn't much. I'd only lower the risk to 0.3-0.5% if its a quick scalp.

Trading 2% of capital is a totally different matter, if the nominal value of your position is only 2k (2% x 100k), a 1% move in gold would only result in a $20 profit/loss, thats 0.0002% of your account, thats just a complete waste of time.

A balance needs to be struck, I certainly won't be trading only 2% of my capital on any trade, for me to do that my account would need to be in the billions.
"Where you want to be is always in control, never wishing, always trading.
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