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Bitcoin technical analysis

  • #2,181
  • Feb 10, 2014 10:20am Feb 10, 2014 10:20am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} How can you say, that it is a good time to buy now? Same you told when it was above 1000! Maybe it is best to wait and see now, what is offered, when some dust is settled. All other is pure gambling. You can also throw a dime....... JMHO
it's all gambling, infinitus - no matter how you slice or dice it: we're betting on direction and distance of trend, no matter which instrument.

and "when some dust is settled" - when will that be? Even deciding that moment is a gamble...

As I said before: put some analysis here - that is welcome - but don't come distributing opinions and criticism every time you visit because we all read the news and keep our analysis current
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #2,182
  • Feb 10, 2014 10:32am Feb 10, 2014 10:32am
Well said for the above message !

Quoting venzen
what's this all about in the BTC-e chart (logarithmic)? that looks like the foothills of a massive wave up...
Hmm I'm not sure, but seems like someone with goxcoin freaked out and sold 10.000btc on BTCe.

Also i'm interested in Kiwioz charts, does this btce chart fall into the week-end gap thingy ?
  • #2,183
  • Feb 10, 2014 11:04am Feb 10, 2014 11:04am
btc-e 102

wave C is EXACTLY 161.8% of wave A

this confirms wave A is a diagonal (12345)
  • #2,184
  • Feb 10, 2014 12:19pm Feb 10, 2014 12:19pm
Quoting emptymind
btc-e 102 wave C is EXACTLY 161.8% of wave A this confirms wave A is a diagonal (12345)
Emptymind... is this what you are referring to? This is a reference chart... not one of BTC.

Attached Image


C or 2) being where we are at now correct?

Thanks... Masalai
  • #2,185
  • Feb 10, 2014 1:22pm Feb 10, 2014 1:22pm
Attached Image

according to venzen the red arrow points to where the market is at the moment ....look back on page 9 for the chart. im not good at long term view. i get confused by all the degrees involved
  • #2,186
  • Feb 10, 2014 1:25pm Feb 10, 2014 1:25pm
Quoting emptymind
{image} according to venzen the red arrow points to where the market is at the moment ....look back on page 9 for the chart. im not good at long term view. i get confused by all the degrees involved
You think we are on (iv) of (v) of 3 ?
  • #2,187
  • Feb 10, 2014 1:31pm Feb 10, 2014 1:31pm
i leave the big picture to venzen.... all i know is the correction is nearly over whatever the degree or position on that reference chart
  • #2,188
  • Feb 10, 2014 1:34pm Feb 10, 2014 1:34pm
Thanks for the feedback... in noob learning mode

Masalai
  • #2,189
  • Feb 10, 2014 2:33pm Feb 10, 2014 2:33pm
Quoting Masalai
Thanks for the feedback... in noob learning mode Masalai
I've been here a month and I'm still in noob learning mode!!
  • #2,190
  • Feb 10, 2014 4:07pm Feb 10, 2014 4:07pm
Quoting venzen
{quote} look it's easy to come after the fact and say "i told you so", but i don't understand: are you saying that every time price goes near 1000 it's a mania? People were saying it's a mania when it went to $12 - "this isn't real money! It's not backed by any asset!" And now look. BTC-e went to 102 but Gox (the manipulating agent) only hit a low of 502. I cannot understand, equally, how a commodity price can be called a mania if it does not fizzle out exponentially. This is clearly a rising chart. Here's the log chart...

OK, that is not really funny, since I warned for crash like situation since weeks. I did it right here in your thread.

At the time being I even asked, who could sustain a drop to 100 or below. Today you told, that your BTC-e account had not survived the drop (and I am sorry for that).

Every time price goes parabolic you can assume, that a deep drop is imminent. But you keep on promoting buying, and buying and buying.


Do you really think, BTC will behave like a commodity, meaning that most likely most momentum is in the 5th wave (like we can see very well with Gold)?

Gold, in its 5th wave is bought due to fear, but BTC at 1000 was clearly bought out of greed. Put a PPO under your chart and you will see, where the most momentum is located - it is located in Jun 2011 when price went into the 20 range or so.

And we also talked sometimes of the relatively small transaction volume of BTC and that is is/was prone to manipulation due to this very fact.


Regarding the gambling:

there are differences, or, if you like, differences in gambling:


a) toss of coin
b) educated guess

Right now, with all the manipulation, the mania, the low flow, the imponderables regarding legality/illegality of BTC and so on and so on, all gambling decisions in BTC tend to be the ones of category a)


Quoting venzen
{quote} it's all gambling, infinitus - no matter how you slice or dice it: we're betting on direction and distance of trend, no matter which instrument. and "when some dust is settled" - when will that be? Even deciding that moment is a gamble... As I said before: put some analysis here - that is welcome - but don't come distributing opinions and criticism every time you visit because we all read the news and keep our analysis current

With that being said, I wish you a good day. I have offered analysis and opinion in the past, but you chose to wear the pink coloured glass.

I will not even consider to write in this thread again, because above replies to my statements etc. clearly show state of mind.


Nevertheless wish all of the Bitcoinians good luck on your endeavour. Sometimes simply patience is king and all other will drain your account.

Had placed pending orders weeks ago in the 50-150 USD/BTC range, but they got not filled today due to low volume and spike-nature of move.. At least I can live for another day.


If the fear of missing the train is bigger than the fear of a loss of capital, well, then that is a receipt for disaster........
  • #2,191
  • Feb 10, 2014 4:51pm Feb 10, 2014 4:51pm
Quoting infinitus
{quote}-Do you really think, BTC will behave like a commodity, meaning that most likely most momentum is in the 5th wave (like we can see very well with Gold)?

-Gold, in its 5th wave is bought due to fear, but BTC at 1000 was clearly bought out of greed. Put a PPO under your chart and you will see, where the most momentum is located - it is located in Jun 2011 when price went into the 20 range or so.

-And we also talked sometimes of the relatively small transaction volume of BTC and that is is/was prone to manipulation due to this very fact..
Despite the conflictual nature of this discussion the two of you are having, If I may, I'd like to comment on a few point,

Firstly, describing BTC as a commodity is wrong. Presently, mostly yes, we are still at the get-trade-quick-scheme stages. In the future it will depend on development occurring or not to change that, which isn't the case with any other commodities that are stuck with their status.

Regarding the PPO, It technically doesn't apply very well on BTC, since it's value isn't absolute (unlike MACD), and BTC are divisible. Specifically when comparing the origin of it to nowadays, it's fallacious.

Last about manipulation, I would like to say again, it is easier to manipulate prices of BTC on high volume than it is on low volume. On low volume you are mostly selling/buying to your self at a loss, and it will cost a tremendous amount of coin to move the market a few 100's down, and only a couple to bring it back up.

Also as a personal note, I'd like to say that Venzen is probably one of the most respectful, open minded and welcoming person you could find on a message board. Also as a trader is analyze are always pertinent and as objective as it can be. It's his thread here, so please understand the difficultie he might encounter to maintain it. And in doing so, I'd love to say that your participation by presenting charts and analytic comments is also very welcome here. At least by me.
  • #2,192
  • Feb 10, 2014 4:56pm Feb 10, 2014 4:56pm
I hope that you are all having fun
  • #2,193
  • Feb 10, 2014 5:08pm Feb 10, 2014 5:08pm
Quoting lady_luck
{quote} Despite the conflictual nature of this discussion the two of you are having, If I may, I'd like to comment on a few point, Firstly, describing BTC as a commodity is wrong. Presently, mostly yes, we are still at the get-trade-quick-scheme stages. In the future it will depend on development occurring or not to change that, which isn't the case with any other commodities that are stuck with their status. Regarding the PPO, . Specifically when comparing the origin of it to nowadays, it's fallacious. Last about manipulation, I would like to...

Hi Lady Luck,

I was a bit annoyed by Venzen remarks, since I always tried to see both sides of the (Bit)Coin and so I presented here many link to pro and con arguments of it.

When a discussion board in no more a place for, well, discussion, what is it then? But anyway, I have already calmed down.......

Regarding the PPO:

since the price development of BTC is logarithmic, normal momentum indicators are without value. For such situations you need momentum indicators which are calculated %-wise and not price-wise. And right that does PPO.

Can not follow your argument about "It technically doesn't apply very well on BTC, since it's value isn't absolute (unlike MACD), and BTC are divisible"

Hope you had good fortune today
  • #2,194
  • Feb 10, 2014 5:20pm Feb 10, 2014 5:20pm
Quoting infinitus
{quote} Hi Lady Luck, I was a bit annoyed by Venzen remarks, since I always tried to see both sides of the (Bit)Coin and so I presented here many link to pro and con arguments of it. When a discussion board in no more a place for, well, discussion, what is it then? But anyway, I have already calmed down....... Regarding the PPO: since the price development of BTC is logarithmic, normal momentum indicators are without value. For such situations you need momentum indicators which are calculated %-wise and not price-wise. And right that does PPO. Can...
I understand both of perspective/feelings, but you both have great knowledge and ideas, so it would be a waste to see you both disagree about anything that doesn't involve a present chart
i don't know how to say it better, but btc are scarce and don't have to be traded by full unit, unlike other shares.
May be an exemple will work better :
Let's say you want to know the statistic of use of $1 and $100 notes, you might want to compare it in an absolute way : how many notes per day are spend. Or in a relative way, which could be either how many note compare to the total number. Well the first one would MACD, but the second one wouldn't be PPO, PPO would be comparing the number of time people have spent $100 with $1 note and $100. Which is statistically viable but a technical aberration because people are very less likely to buy $100 worth with $1 note.
  • #2,195
  • Feb 10, 2014 5:39pm Feb 10, 2014 5:39pm
Quoting lady_luck
{quote} I understand both of perspective/feelings, but you both have great knowledge and ideas, so it would be a waste to see you both disagree about anything that doesn't involve a present chart i don't know how to say it better, but btc are scarce and don't have to be traded by full unit, unlike other shares. May be an exemple will work better : Let's say you want to know the statistic of use of $1 and $100 notes, you might want to compare it in an absolute way : how many notes per day are spend. Or in a relative way, which could be either...

OK, I see what you want to say.

But when we look at momentum on a price chart, all we need to know is the change in price over a given number of periods.

You can calculate it absolute or relative.

When price has developed logarithmic, the absolute way is useless. Therefore you have to use PPO in BTC for judgement of momentum.

http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.p...oscillators_pp


so again, I can not see how your argument shall work out. Sorry
  • #2,196
  • Feb 10, 2014 8:52pm Feb 10, 2014 8:52pm
Quoting lady_luck
Ok, since my optimistic count got trashed, there is still this potential triangle in formation, which could validate a IV, but it does need more contact point and more time to pass -as infinitus said- to be validated {image} note : timescale would be longer* Btce would invalidate it, but the 102 was most-likely due to coin from gox being cash out elsewhere (confirmed by LTC chart), so may be the 102 can be treated as an abnormality or could turn into an expanding triangle. The second option I see is similar to what emptymind presented, we would...
I think your Bistamp charts are the ones to go by. Btc-e spiked down to 290 so that marks them as a broker NOT to be trusted. Ava. MTGox Bitstamp all similar. AVA the only one to trust with MT4. Pity they are not live over the weekends. We now appear to have a huge triangle taking price back up to around 850. Bitcoin owners are breathing sighs of relief.........
Money Makes Money
  • #2,197
  • Feb 10, 2014 8:54pm Feb 10, 2014 8:54pm
Quoting KiwiOz
{quote} I think your Bistamp charts are the ones to go by. Btc-e spiked down to 290 so that marks them as a broker NOT to be trusted. Ava. MTGox Bitstamp all similar. AVA the only one to trust with MT4. Pity they are not live over the weekends. We now appear to have a huge triangle taking price back up to around 850. Bitcoin owners are breathing sighs of relief.........
BTC-e spiked down to 102 actually, lol.
  • #2,198
  • Feb 10, 2014 10:04pm Feb 10, 2014 10:04pm
Quoting dcramer16
{quote} BTC-e spiked down to 102 actually, lol.
Wow Doesn't show on my charts..............All the brokers are showing different levels now & when the drop happened. Bloody confusing. Anyone seen the NMC/Btc charts.?? only pair showing any sense.......
Money Makes Money
  • #2,199
  • Feb 11, 2014 2:05am Feb 11, 2014 2:05am
Looks like Gox is keeping the price down to suit their own ends or needs.........
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Money Makes Money
  • #2,200
  • Feb 11, 2014 5:33am Feb 11, 2014 5:33am
Quoting KiwiOz
{quote} Wow Doesn't show on my charts..............All the brokers are showing different levels now & when the drop happened. Bloody confusing. Anyone seen the NMC/Btc charts.?? only pair showing any sense.......
Yep, we had at least a few orders filled at 102, it's been talked about quite a bit on the trollbox.
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