Bitcoin technical analysis

Viable count, emptymind.

You're counting Gox right? That was some shocking downside - but you anticipated it well so it should have filled your pockets good

Let's see how tomorrow's Gox announcement affects direction!

And for LTC, is this ABCDE viable ?
https://www.tradingview.com/x/QqHuyGZ1/

Good count you posted and you're right: that is the fractal in play - but I don't think it's the one I was looking at! I was looking at a later example here price just kept going up - clearly not what happened here

I see a lot of signs that we should be going up, but I have one more concern... the current PA could reset all the indicators and start another massive wave down. It feels wrong and it doesn't make sense, but then that's what i felt about additional downside at 800... here's a possible worst case count:

NB - also note how the oscillators at the top frame are giving a sell signal.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/HQHgPxoB/

I reckon it is - and it's degree looks different than the two waves that follow it. (what i mean to say is the two waves since mid-Dec have different sized waves and this makes me think they are not a continuation of the move that made the ABCDE wave)

Thanks
It does sound familiar, RSI and other oscillators have been acting strange since mid-december... I can't find any pattern matching with EW.

Also an other question, Trading view charting tool have been acting strangely for me lately, every-time I want to draw something it keep bumping above or beneath where I want to put my anchor, have you noticed it too or may be it's just my laptop ?

EDIT : That's what I thought too when the other day I posted the LTC chart, that's why I got ABCDE and abcde.
This is getting so interesting, all this relation between various crypto and different exchanges. It's so complex and so simple at the same time. I love it !

about Trading view: i notice sometimes the charts reset to defaults - specifically, there's an icon of a magnet on the lefthand side - switch that (magnetic trendlines) off and see if it helps...

also have you tried the multiple charts in one window feature they added on the weekend? I like it because I can compare different TFs in the same window

I realised today that I had become complacent in my view of the crypto charts. I tend to adopt a bias in terms of future direction and then interpret anything as confirmation of that bias (up since mid-Dec). This strong move down completely took me by surprise - and it would have been good profit if i only looked at the charts more objectively - the signs and fractals of this move are now quite obvious, but I was overlooking them in favour of the blast north. We had often said here: "where is the move up?" Momentum was slowing to a crawl and PA has been slowly trending DOWN since the start of January! But I interpreted that as "base-building" instead of looking for examples from previous waves and finding possible targets below. What a baboon monkey! And that in the face of knowing KiwiOz's predictions hardly ever fail... and emptymind drawing those big pink arrows pointing down for me...

Anyway, I'm just laughing about the ups and downs of being a trader... we have to laugh sometimes, right?

I think the market is waiting to hear from Magic Gox tomorrow , so sideways until then?

goodnight lady_luck, i'm calling it a good day. see you tomorrow!

Missing opportunities is ok, so is neglecting some pieces of information. Well at least, that's what any CIA analyst working in the early 2000's would say...
And I agree, it's hard to be completely objective when a position has already been taken. It could have gone north, some fib and sma were already hit and your (our) count was viable, it would have been a worst call to change position than missing on this low.

Also, i didn't do it with all my holding, so it wasn't what I'll called a win, but being in the same boat as you, I'm pretty happy with what LTC/BTC did, it's definitely an hedge alternative worth looking into in the future when "stuck" with a position.

I'll try that on TV next time, thank you for the info.
Good night Venzen, thanks for the comments on my potential count.

Does anyone have any guesses as to the meaning of the cross over happening on the 1week chart? Isn't that bad for long term growth??

Not really, MACD signal crossover often gives fake signals, specifically on a weekly chart.
If you go back in back and look at 20/07/2011, the similar crossing was a good sell signal.
On the other hand the one from 12/06/2013 was a wrong sell signal.

I said specifically on a weekly chart, because then we are talking about 9 and 12-26, week, so compared to those MA, we are would be at current PA extremity and this only shows the obvious lack of upward momentum...

Also to be honest, I think I totally understand why you noticed it, but it's sorta impossible to do long term estimation. Even more with BTC, their is still outside actions that could greatly impact PA in so many ways...
EW would be better for longer prediction, but in my opinion, after a couple month, just having one alt'count would be giving you a fork between 300-3200. And that, everybody could say the same

So don't worry too much, earlier we were talking about missed opportunities, I bet in 2015, we all gonna be talking about how february 2014 would have been such a great opportunity to buy.

Thanks Lady Luck. You always have a positive attitude. Anytime I get a little bit worried about prices going down, I just go back and read some of your posts!

Here's a pretty good positive news story.

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article44324.html

yes sir. counting gox. i was heavily influenced by kiwioz chart of gold. the reason i feel strongly the recent bottom is a wave 3 is because it is 261.8% of wave 1 almost exactly. i see this in a lot of C waves....... about L_L's optimistic chart, imo, once wave 2 dips below .618 it becomes suspect but no rules are broken

DC,

I'm also intrigued by those initial few weeks and it's difficult to get a clear chart of it - but not impossible - i will try and query Gox's API for tick info from those early days (if they have it).

What I can see is that the Gox chart started with what looks like an expanding triangle:



This is OK and if one looks at, say, the EurUsd chart it is clear that the entire action of the chart is corrective in nature - meaning: it is not forming impulses toward some higher price but may be eternally (well, until the end of fiat) swinging in triangles between upper and lower limits.

This is also a characteristic of scarce commodity charts. But such commodities are different in the sense that their charts are in actual hope- and fear-driven bull markets. Yet they do not conform to the blueprint declared by Elliott Wave of 5 waves up followed by 3 waves down. This could be the nature of Bitcoin's chart and only time will tell. Nonetheless, a reasonable expectation is that Bitcoin price goes up (with deep retracements) for a few years before it becomes more of a currency and starts meandering sideways at an established exchange rate.

edit: apologies, after reading lady_luck's response I realised that I had misunderstood your question - you're talking about the current MACD crossover in the weekly chart. L_L said it: there is not much price history to conduct meaningful analysis on the weeky chart yet. Consider that the MACD may have only reached 50% or 25% of its upward range and hence this crossover may just be a "wobble" on the way to higher levels.

On the otherhand, let's take a look at a logarithmic chart where it's clearly a valid crossover confirmed by price: In this case, MACD (bottom panel) has diverged to the downside and it is lower than the level it indicated at label "IV" (December) and approaching levels seen at label "II" (October) - BUT price is not confirming those levels! This is called "reverse" (or "hidden") divergence which at some point will see price react strongly to the upside. This is a lesser know technical indicator signal but one that does not escape the eye of an experienced (Big Money?) analyst.

RSI (second from bottom) is setup to indicate reverse divergence with an orange dot - and there it (last week). Also, RSI has reached it's lower Bollinger Band (20 period) which is not a decisive signal but an initial buy signal nonetheless

MtGox Weekly chart

https://www.tradingview.com/x/v70HWe2V/

from a practical point of view just look for the lowest price (.01 in your chart) and start applying the ew rules. that's where the new cycle starts. it doesn't matter what happened before that because markets often "reset" and just do something new

to apply ewp you need mass participation and good volume otherwise it's just random. so at such early stage the chart hasn't even formed properly because there was not much public participation



look at how facebook started.... after making low a new cycle start

(you can count 5 waves to the top so facebook is done... watch for abc correction coming soon)

irregular flat????

Wave 4 could be an irregular flat where wave b goes beyond a............ but if wave 4 was super weak then my target for the end of wave C is: 700 - (1038.2 - 622.42)*.618 = 443.04796 (BUY WITH BOTH HANDS!)



that is one good reason to never trade against the trend... example, if this is wave C then always look for short opportunities... try not to be too clever and long it

Transaction Maleability to blame - what a disaster: http://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/2014/...ent-10feb2014/

https://www.mtgox.com/press_release_20140210.html (also read below)

Gox is in a world of pain by the looks of things and this kind of news can bring on panic selling on a large scale. Meanwhile opportunists are sitting and waiting on the sidelines (or actively playing a part in all this in the first place for their own material gains). Looking forward to some serious volatility!

From MtGox link:

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Dear MtGox Customers and Bitcoiners,

As you are aware, the MtGox team has been working hard to address an issue with the way that bitcoin withdrawals are processed. By "bitcoin withdrawal" we are referring to transactions from a MtGox bitcoin wallet to an external bitcoin address. Bitcoin transactions to any MtGox bitcoin address, and currency withdrawals (Yen, Euro, etc) are not affected by this issue.

The problem we have identified is not limited to MtGox, and affects all transactions where Bitcoins are being sent to a third party. We believe that the changes required for addressing this issue will be positive over the long term for the whole community. As a result we took the necessary action of suspending bitcoin withdrawals until this technical issue has been resolved.


Addressing Transaction Malleability
MtGox has detected unusual activity on its Bitcoin wallets and performed investigations during the past weeks. This confirmed the presence of transactions which need to be examined more closely.


Non-technical Explanation:
A bug in the bitcoin software makes it possible for someone to use the Bitcoin network to alter transaction details to make it seem like a sending of bitcoins to a bitcoin wallet did not occur when in fact it did occur. Since the transaction appears as if it has not proceeded correctly, the bitcoins may be resent. MtGox is working with the Bitcoin core development team and others to mitigate this issue.


Technical Explanation:
Bitcoin transactions are subject to a design issue that has been largely ignored, while known to at least a part of the Bitcoin core developers and mentioned on the BitcoinTalk forums. This defect, known as "transaction malleability" makes it possible for a third party to alter the hash of any freshly issued transaction without invalidating the signature, hence resulting in a similar transaction under a different hash. Of course only one of the two transactions can be validated. However, if the party who altered the transaction is fast enough, for example with a direct connection to different mining pools, or has even a small amount of mining power, it can easily cause the transaction hash alteration to be committed to the blockchain.

The bitcoin api "sendtoaddress" broadly used to send bitcoins to a given bitcoin address will return a transaction hash as a way to track the transaction's insertion in the blockchain.
Most wallet and exchange services will keep a record of this said hash in order to be able to respond to users should they inquire about their transaction. It is likely that these services will assume the transaction was not sent if it doesn't appear in the blockchain with the original hash and have currently no means to recognize the alternative transactions as theirs in an efficient way.

This means that an individual could request bitcoins from an exchange or wallet service, alter the resulting transaction's hash before inclusion in the blockchain, then contact the issuing service while claiming the transaction did not proceed. If the alteration fails, the user can simply send the bitcoins back and try again until successful.

We believe this can be addressed by using a different hash for transaction tracking purposes. While the network will continue to use the current hash for the purpose of inclusion in each block's Merkle Tree, the new hash's purpose will be to track a given transaction and can be computed and indexed by hashing the exact signed string via SHA256 (in the same way transactions are currently hashed).

This new transaction hash will allow signing parties to keep track of any transaction they have signed and can easily be computed, even for past transactions.

We have discussed this solution with the Bitcoin core developers and will allow Bitcoin withdrawals again once it has been approved and standardized.

In the meantime, exchanges and wallet services - and any service sending coins directly to third parties - should be extremely careful with anyone claiming their transaction did not go through.

Note that this will also affect any other crypto-currency using the same transaction scheme as Bitcoin.


Conclusion
To put things in perspective, it's important to remember that Bitcoin is a very new technology and still very much in its early stages. What MtGox and the Bitcoin community have experienced in the past year has been an incredible and exciting challenge, and there is still much to do to further improve.

MtGox will resume bitcoin withdrawals to outside wallets once the issue outlined above has been properly addressed in a manner that will best serve our customers.

More information on the status of this issue will be released as soon as possible.

We thank you for taking the time to read this, and especially for your patience.

Best Regards,
MtGox Team

It's over. BTC-E hitted 102$ forget about everything, this is pure disorderly panic selling it will continue, all bag holders will dump

http://bitcoinwisdom.com/

http://www.businessinsider.com/mtgox...drawals-2014-2