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Bitcoin technical analysis

  • #2,121
  • Feb 7, 2014 6:35pm Feb 7, 2014 6:35pm
We could really use some extremely great wonderful fantastic news to bump these prices back up to the 900-1000 range!
  • #2,122
  • Feb 7, 2014 9:21pm Feb 7, 2014 9:21pm
Quoting dcramer16
Holy Crap! Mt Gox's price is below BTC-e. Amazing...
EEYup MT Gox now the lowest..........
Money Makes Money
  • #2,123
  • Feb 7, 2014 9:22pm Feb 7, 2014 9:22pm
Quoting dcramer16
We could really use some extremely great wonderful fantastic news to bump these prices back up to the 900-1000 range!

Not gunna happen.......
Money Makes Money
  • #2,124
  • Feb 7, 2014 9:23pm Feb 7, 2014 9:23pm
$570 here we come...............
Money Makes Money
  • #2,125
  • Feb 7, 2014 9:44pm Feb 7, 2014 9:44pm
Indicators on all the exchange charts are maxed at all TFs. Additionally some extreme divergence signals are showing in RSI and MACD across TFs, so, technically I judge the bottom to be in.

The following BTC-e H4 chart shows a previous correction (circled in red) which may be the blueprint for this one - and accordingly we should see $800 in a few days ($900 Gox).

However, bear in mind that Gox are going to decree on their customer funds (which are presently frozen) on Monday 10 Feb. The outcome will determine direction up or down. If they are truly on the brink of collapse then the news will cause extreme volatility as panic combines with opportunism for bargain buying.

As things stand I have the price action since mid-Dec as waves A and B of wave V (of 5) to the upside. It's 1.618 projection shows a target for wave C (of V of 5) at $1,338 (BTC-e). For this to be validated Gox has to say something positive on Monday.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/AGRfdNFE/
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #2,126
  • Feb 7, 2014 9:56pm Feb 7, 2014 9:56pm
Quoting venzen
Indicators on all the exchange charts are maxed at all TFs. Additionally some extreme divergence signals are showing in RSI and MACD across TFs, so, technically I judge the bottom to be in. The following BTC-e H4 chart shows a previous correction (circled in red) which may be the blueprint for this one - and accordingly we should see $800 in a few days ($900 Gox). However, bear in mind that Gox are going to decree on their customer funds (which are presently frozen) on Monday 10 Feb. The outcome will determine direction up or down. If they are truly...
Hi Venzen. You MAY be right. When PA suddenly rushes to a target it often signals the end. There is a possibility we have just witnessed in the space of about 24 hrs, both wave 1 & 2 completed on the way to your 1338 target. However there is just as much chance this freefall is far from over. Lets see what the weekend brings & what happens on Monday......
Money Makes Money
  • #2,127
  • Feb 7, 2014 9:59pm Feb 7, 2014 9:59pm
Interesting. troubled times ahead
http://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/2014/...ange-problems/
Money Makes Money
  • #2,128
  • Feb 7, 2014 10:00pm Feb 7, 2014 10:00pm
?????????
http://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/2014/...oing-vertical/
Money Makes Money
  • #2,129
  • Feb 7, 2014 10:02pm Feb 7, 2014 10:02pm
http://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/2014/...eedom-tyranny/

http://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/2014/...-info-ios-app/
Money Makes Money
  • #2,130
  • Feb 7, 2014 10:03pm Feb 7, 2014 10:03pm
Gotta go.. see y'all Monday.
Money Makes Money
  • #2,131
  • Feb 8, 2014 2:38am Feb 8, 2014 2:38am
The following Reddit post was posted by Bitcoin developer Gregory Maxwell and gives some technical depth as to what's happening at Gox. Apparently they have a mess of transactions due to compacting errors in their custom exchange wallet software:

http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comm..._mtgox/cf99yac
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #2,132
  • Feb 8, 2014 4:06am Feb 8, 2014 4:06am
Quoting venzen
Indicators on all the exchange charts are maxed at all TFs. Additionally some extreme divergence signals are showing in RSI and MACD across TFs, so, technically I judge the bottom to be in. The following BTC-e H4 chart shows a previous correction (circled in red) which may be the blueprint for this one - and accordingly we should see $800 in a few days ($900 Gox). However, bear in mind that Gox are going to decree on their customer funds (which are presently frozen) on Monday 10 Feb. The outcome will determine direction up or down. If they are truly...
Hello,

Yeah that's why I put the ltc chart. I wanted confirmation of what I saw. To me it showed clearly 5 complete wave down. And i remember what you said in december, that if if you saw the LTC chart you would have known the correction was over.
And besides, it's interesting how LTC did it's own wave pattern, question is it a wave behind or ... ?

The second point i want to make, do you remember when we were waiting for the bad news to come and mark a bottom at 383 ? The day before that you started to post a lot of bad news. And a few days ago we were all wondering why all those good news and no rises. Like I believe, those accumulation of news seems to point to top and bottom pretty efficiently, as if they were attracted by the prices

Also, I don't think Gox will ever be above stamp and huobi from now on. Like It happen with BTC china, when we went above 1000 for the first time, they were about 20% above gox and when they pretty much failed, they went 10% below gox, giving it back a temporary leadership. But they never went back above. Their was this strong mentality of "what's gox is doing" in april, then came "china,china, china" in november, interesting need for having a big bro/big sis' to look up to... So who's next of kin, stamp or huobi ?

A more neutral thing, orderbooks. They are what they are, but I can notice that they are now half of yesterday, which is interesting in term of market psychology, and should facilitate a move in either direction.

Last, I mentioned earlier to look at the volume for a spike down to mark the end of the sideway, we now have on stamp a daily and weekly spike of volume equivalent to the one from the january top. To me that's an other sign.

EDIT : monday, gox, a good news ? Hmm, that they take full responsibility for being themselves and will permanently retire and forget BTC has ever existed ?
  • #2,133
  • Feb 8, 2014 9:21am Feb 8, 2014 9:21am
Quoting lady_luck
{quote} monday, gox, a good news ? Hmm, that they take full responsibility for being themselves and will permanently retire and forget BTC has ever existed ?


Hi lady_luck,

check this article I wrote based on a Reddit post by Bitcoin developer, Greg Maxwell:
http://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/2014/...nsaction-woes/

Interesting stuff... I don't know if that is the whole truth - i think Gox has far bigger problems than just technical glitches - so let's see what Monday brings? Cannot imagine that the market will be happy with whatever Gox is going to say (tech problems, more delays) so we might have to prepare for another drop down...

I agree with the signs you see of the correction being over for now - but might it continue later? I hope not! I really want to see some upside from here on...
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #2,134
  • Feb 8, 2014 9:38am Feb 8, 2014 9:38am
Quoting lady_luck
{quote} \ do you remember when we were waiting for the bad news to come and mark a bottom at 383 ? The day before that you started to post a lot of bad news. And a few days ago we were all wondering why all those good news and no rises. Like I believe, those accumulation of news seems to point to top and bottom pretty efficiently, as if they were attracted by the prices Also, I don't think Gox will ever be above stamp and huobi from now on. Like It happen with BTC china, when we went above 1000 for the first time, they were about 20% above gox...
Good point about the news.

It's pretty bad right now - at least, people seem quite negative and look at what price did...

And this fits with the orderbooks and volume. Looking at the chart it just seems the correction is done, but the way it is creeping down the past hour has be doubting again!

Someone in a chatroom just said: "It's only going to take one piece of good news to reach 800 again".

i hope so
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #2,135
  • Feb 8, 2014 9:39am Feb 8, 2014 9:39am
That's some great stuff.
Funny thing is, if they were a law compliant company (despite BTC unresolved status of course) they would have been shut down long ago for their practice.
Specifically interesting was their past ability for truncated the reality of things, and take action later than sooner. All wrapped up in misleading and distrustful talk.
But even in the worst case scenario of them brutally shutting down, the impact on BTC prices would be about the same as SR. It's well expected.
And the worst of the worst, them shutting down with all funds and coins lost would be the same, since it would prevent anyone from selling.

So will see what monday brings, but i'm not pending to hear from them.
Also I would say it again, I encourage every BTC user to split their holding within as many wallet and exchange as possible.
  • #2,136
  • Feb 8, 2014 10:45am Feb 8, 2014 10:45am
you said it!

meanwhile some encouraging moves in the charts!
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #2,137
  • Edited 10:59am Feb 8, 2014 10:49am | Edited 10:59am
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Quoting Masalai
Been lurking this thread for awhile now... Really enjoying reading all of your way over my head EW analysis. Lots to learn... but wanted to say thanks!! Masalai
thanks,,. your comment appears under my post so i thanks! i encourage you to post your count. make as much mistakes as you can (just like me!) this way you will soon get the hang of it faster. if you can count to 5 and know your abc's you already half way there

venzen,,, im sorry but your crazy abc in your 5th wave impulse always confuse me. this is just not standard labeling.
  • #2,138
  • Edited 10:27pm Feb 8, 2014 8:08pm | Edited 10:27pm
Quoting chonchy
Hello venzen and his followers here, all of them....... I think we are going to the red ema 100 still think myself..... wish I had more lots to buy more.......the bounce is near me think.....maybe at the red ema 100...... {image}
and so we did bounce but now keeping the down........


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The Chonchy
  • #2,139
  • Feb 8, 2014 10:48pm Feb 8, 2014 10:48pm
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looks like we are close to bottom. some kind of ending diagonal for wave 5 of 3.......... i would buy once it free itself from this diagonal. expecting a 38.2% minimum retracement for wave 4...... ~~~ 760 to 800 (50% retrace)
  • #2,140
  • Edited 8:17am Feb 9, 2014 7:51am | Edited 8:17am
Hello,

Most optimistic count, if it were an other regular flat, works with a wave 2, fib 0.764 was reach.
nb : interesting -almost symmetrical- extending fifth on both 1 & 2
https://www.tradingview.com/x/efpCpugz/

Also Venzen, last week you mentioned looking into a fractal found in october, it was a wave 1&2 so do you think that would add some credibility to this eventuality ?
I think it was something like this(-ish) :
https://www.tradingview.com/x/cTTIvXp1/
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