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Bitcoin technical analysis

  • #2,021
  • Jan 31, 2014 10:40am Jan 31, 2014 10:40am
Nice chart, I like the altcount too,
Hmm, what's the red line on top ? Is it a target or resistance ?
Also, is "1" an abc with a diagonal in c ?

Quote
That's like me waiting for that one more wave down to 55 in July last year and the choo-choo train left me alone on the platform

I've done similar, except I got the train right in september, and thought it will go very high... high like 270-290. And wasn't I so happy to sell at those insane prices !
Only to realized around 530 that it wasn't going back to two digits...
  • #2,022
  • Jan 31, 2014 11:52am Jan 31, 2014 11:52am
Quoting lady_luck
Nice chart, I like the altcount too, Hmm, what's the red line on top ? Is it a target or resistance ? Also, is "1" an abc with a diagonal in c ? {quote} I've done similar, except I got the train right in september, and thought it will go very high... high like 270-290. And wasn't I so happy to sell at those insane prices ! Only to realized around 530 that it wasn't going back to two digits...
Everything since the April correction until December was very crazy for me: after the April "crash" i engaged with Bitcoin for the first time and started trying to make sense of the price chart... and i thought i had a handle on it and my count was going well and then a surprise turn before target... then i thought, OK let me trade Gold until Bitcoin comes back down so i can buy in low. And i got so involved with my gold trades that i missed the Sept/Oct lows and started watching the chart go up and up until I realized Bitcoin was covering distances in a day that was taking Gold weeks to do, so i started looking for an entry and caught it good but got out too early also. The correction down was crazy (i remember us analysing that almost daily) and i still didn't have a handle the correction being finished until PA got near 800 again. So, a roller coaster really, but i love it and now it seems like we have a grip on what this Bitcoin chart can do and what it is going to do next. Of course, there are still some mad surprises coming up!

The red line is the 21 Fib extension of the first clear wave up (that i can see) in the Oct advance. Here's the bigger picture of BTC-e H4 in log scale:

edit: now that i look at it again, that wave up from the July low looks very much like wave 1 of the advance. It's wave structure is similar to the wave up since mid-Dec and proportionally the whole advance has a good base in that wave. This is very interesting and I'm going to analyse more to see what else it reveals...

https://www.tradingview.com/x/Gny0SY9V/
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #2,023
  • Feb 1, 2014 7:22am Feb 1, 2014 7:22am
Hello,
I'm curious what you might have found.
And a little question, can finding similitude between waves shapes be used to clarify the labels and degree of an unidentified wave ?
For example, if it looks the same, but with more amplitude and timely length, would it mean same wave but a degree higher ?

edit : also I'm keeping an eye on LTC/BTC, I have difficulties believing EW works with that pair, but with regular rules for triangle, I got a potential 0.030 target
  • #2,024
  • Feb 1, 2014 11:31am Feb 1, 2014 11:31am
Quoting lady_luck
Hello, I'm curious what you might have found. And a little question, can finding similitude between waves shapes be used to clarify the labels and degree of an unidentified wave ? For example, if it looks the same, but with more amplitude and timely length, would it mean same wave but a degree higher ? edit : also I'm keeping an eye on LTC/BTC, I have difficulties believing EW works with that pair, but with regular rules for triangle, I got a potential 0.030 target

Hi,

BTC-e H1 (for some reason FF won't display the chart but it does link if you click on it)

https://www.tradingview.com/x/tH0ZKLlu

Measure Wave 1 in the chart below and then move the Fib tool to the bottom of Wave 2. The top of Wave 3 comes in near 1.618 the distance of Wave 1. This is quite a consistent Fib extension target for BTC. Also, measure wave 2 -> iii and move the Fib tool to the end of wave iv... 1.618 falls exactly on the same price level again. However, PA never gets there because apparently the older Fib extension level of 21 (of wave 1 of the entire advance) caps it. Wave 3 prints a top at the 21 Fib ext at 980.

Do the same thing again, but this time measure from IV -> Wave 3 and move the Fibtool to the bottom of wave 4. This projects the 1.618 Fib extension to 1600. Measure wave 2-> 3 and move the Fib tool so 1.618 aligns with the previous 1.618 level and we have a bottom of subwave iv at 920. Again, there is an obstructing Fib extension level, the 34 ext of wave 1 (of the entire advance) - it lies at around 1538 - a good sequence of numbers and a good target for the top of wave 5 of V of this cycle.

All these Fib levels and moving of Fib tools to get projections is poorly explained with words and on the chart it is not always clear where a measure was made and then moved from. There must be a better way of illustrating this... perhaps annotations on the chart instead of written here will be clearer. Next time i'll try that.

Forecast: based on Fib extensions of previous waves of smaller degree but of similar form and function, the current wave 5 of V of the entire advance since mid-2013 has a likely target in the 1500-1600 area. PA still has some alternate options in the mean time and we should watch for reversal back below 800 in case the sideways correction isn't over yet. Because of strong Fib confluences around 850 (not shown) this level is likely to provide major resistance.
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #2,025
  • Edited 12:16pm Feb 1, 2014 11:59am | Edited 12:16pm
Quoting lady_luck
Hello, I'm curious what you might have found. And a little question, can finding similitude between waves shapes be used to clarify the labels and degree of an unidentified wave ? For example, if it looks the same, but with more amplitude and timely length, would it mean same wave but a degree higher ? edit : also I'm keeping an eye on LTC/BTC, I have difficulties believing EW works with that pair, but with regular rules for triangle, I got a potential 0.030 target
I think this is especially true for BTC which is quite self-similar within the same degree of trend as well as at different degrees. Exactly as you say in your quote above. This is how I finally decided on labels and their degree - else one would just label with some arbitrary method (perhaps based on what "looks right") and never have much confidence about what structure trend is in at the moment... sort of like: hmm, this looks like waves 1 and 2 and then... is that the end of 2 or is that a new wave up starting with i-ii...? I always believe the smaller waves near the beginning of a move contain the entire pattern - certainly Fib extensions of wave 1 or wave A are consistently reliable for projecting the ends of subsequent waves... so it should hold true for their internal structure too - the subwaves that built them will manifest again in the same proportions.

I think there's a lesson to be learnt in the way most people (including myself) looked at the April top and then expected massive and prolonged downside, same thing happened again after the Nov top when the Tulip Mania calls started coming out again... I certainly had a sense that this instrument made such a monster wave that it should wash far and long across the beach before another large wave can appear. But as soon as we hit that low in mid-Dec, a very strong wave went from ~400 - ~700 in 2 days! And THEN the long lull followed.The actions and reactions are actually quite clear and natural (in hindsight!) but i think one tends to get psychologically overwhelmed and too much caution clouds one's ability to see a very obvious crash and immediate rebound.

Same thing when looking at the structure of subsequent waves and subwaves for anticipating the current structure and development. I notice people (incl me) go back to a previous similar pattern and then try to fit the exact same thing on current PA. But this can never yield helpful results because firstly, corrections alternate between simple and complex and secondly, degrees change up and down. So the likelihood of the same thing happening twice in a row at the same degree (wave-size) is almost zero (a triangle being an obvious exception because it repeats zigzags at the same degree). BTC has fairly simple wave development - the time factor and depth in corrections is unusual - but once a trend runs it is self-similar (and fast!) But if one switches to log scale and you zoom out and in at different places and change TFs and explore - BTC is apparently doing now what it was doing in month one and ever since - the same structures - its only that the degree of it is getting bigger.

Absolutely amazing chart.
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #2,026
  • Edited 12:23pm Feb 1, 2014 12:02pm | Edited 12:23pm
Interesting... It's actually good to also read it, although, I did the same process with the equivalent in LTC/USD then LTC/BTC, if i did it right I got 56 and 57 on ltc/usd. And on ltc/btc I've got 0.037 and 0.038.
And if I applied your fib result from BTC/USD to the result I got on LTC/usd, then I got a ltc/btc at 0.036 and 0.037.
Which matches relatively closely the result obtain by doing on ltc/btc alone.

edit : your previous post is very deep, I gonna need a bit of time to process it
  • #2,027
  • Feb 1, 2014 12:30pm Feb 1, 2014 12:30pm
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  • #2,028
  • Feb 1, 2014 1:07pm Feb 1, 2014 1:07pm
Quoting lady_luck
Interesting... It's actually good to also read it, although, I did the same process with the equivalent in LTC/USD then LTC/BTC, if i did it right I got 56 and 57 on ltc/usd. And on ltc/btc I've got 0.037 and 0.038. And if I applied your fib result from BTC/USD to the result I got on LTC/usd, then I got a ltc/btc at 0.036 and 0.037. Which matches relatively closely the result obtain by doing on ltc/btc alone. edit : your previous post is very deep, I gonna need a bit of time to process it

yeah, sorry, that was a train of thought and reading it now it doesn't seem such a good answer to your repeat-by-degree question. Just read it and take away what makes sense to you. Don't read to much into it, because it's quite philosophical (bordering on mystical) now that I got a grip on the Dec wave up - i'm elucidating on wave development and that's based on one's personal understanding at the time... so yeah.. don't read too much into it. I'd gladly explain more, but you know, when it comes to waves and especially labels and degrees - nothing says it like a chart! I'll put up a visual tomorrow

BTW - i tried withdrawing BTC from MtGox today and they wouldn't let me. Everything proceeds as normal but when I hit "Confirm" to withdraw a pop-up says my account needs to be verified. I wish I had done this long ago because apparently they're snowed under now and it might take a long long time.

... just as well price is making advances to the upside!
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #2,029
  • Feb 1, 2014 1:21pm Feb 1, 2014 1:21pm
Quoting venzen
{quote}BTW - i tried withdrawing BTC from MtGox today and they wouldn't let me. Everything proceeds as normal but when I hit "Confirm" to withdraw a pop-up says my account needs to be verified. I wish I had done this long ago because apparently they're snowed under now and it might take a long long time. ... just as well price is making advances to the upside!
This is bad. So you can't withdraw BTC or USD ?
I don't want to sound alarming, but I'm having a bad feeling about gox. I'm starting to assume that the difference in price is due to a lack of liquidity to satisfy withdrawal request. And the drop in volume, justified by a lot of mistrust from user.
I use to think that BTC-e was dodgy (you know the whole bulgaria, russia, yandex, weird thing) but now, if one were to shut down, I'll bet on gox. (i mean seriously MagicTheGatheringOnlineXchange couldn't even pay $10 for a new domain name when getting into BTC ?).
Anyway, no panic, but if you can, consider doing the same as me, spread your btc within a few places, btc-e, bter, localbitcoin,..). It's better to be prudent.

I think that's what I liked about your answer, it's pretty mystical, plus it make a lot of sens. I met a few 2011 people, after the first bullrun they didn't expect the next rally. Same, back in april, I didn't expect november to happen. And so forth...
  • #2,030
  • Feb 1, 2014 1:56pm Feb 1, 2014 1:56pm
Quoting lady_luck
{quote} This is bad. So you can't withdraw BTC or USD ? I don't want to sound alarming, but I'm having a bad feeling about gox. I'm starting to assume that the difference in price is due to a lack of liquidity to satisfy withdrawal request. And the drop in volume, justified by a lot of mistrust from user. I use to think that BTC-e was dodgy (you know the whole bulgaria, russia, yandex, weird thing) but now, if one were to shut down, I'll bet on gox. (i mean seriously MagicTheGatheringOnlineXchange couldn't even pay $10 for a new domain name when...

sure no panic, i left less than 1BTC in Gox as a "wise" decision to spread my risk! The liquidity drop is significant and the fact that no-one can get funds out - i withdrew the bulk of my BTC from Gox a few weeks ago - no problem - and now it's "locked down" so that is a bad sign. There may be a good explanation for it but noticing the "Bitcoin Foundation Donation" option in the withdrawal methods drop-down gave me a strange sensation...

anyhow, goodnight lady_luck, let's see what the Sunday trade will look like
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #2,031
  • Edited 11:22am Feb 2, 2014 10:37am | Edited 11:22am
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  • #2,032
  • Edited 12:22pm Feb 2, 2014 11:03am | Edited 12:22pm
I think Bitcoin was a purely speculators market till end of 2013, but now that retailers are starting to get into the game, that will bring in more selling pressure.
Overstock is not going to hold on to those Bitcoins they get from customers. I think that will put damper on volatility. Could be sideways chop for a while.

http://razorsforex.blogspot.com/2014...stability.html

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Bitcoin Price Analysis
  • #2,033
  • Feb 2, 2014 11:36am Feb 2, 2014 11:36am
Quoting Razorman
I think Bitcoin was a purely speculators market till end of 2013, but now that retailer are starting to get into the game, that will bring in more selling pressure. Overstock is not going to hold on to those Bitcoins they get from customers. I think that will put damper on volatility. Could be sideways chop for a while. http://razorsforex.blogspot.com/2014...stability.html {image} Bitcoin Price Analysis

Hello Razorman,
Just read your blog, It's a pretty good analyze.
Although, I am unsure this is the end of the speculative phase. The volume in USD hasn't been lowering enough to confirm this statement. The absence of swing is normal, you can call it consolidation, accumulation...
Since BTC early days, the same structure is to be found. Every 6 month a massive rally, accompanied logically by some correction. Then at least one boring trimester of sideway. The market psychology beyond those phases justify it.
The increase level of adoption over the past years hasn't change this fact yet.

But, somewhere I agree with you. One day, BTC adoption will make it a less attractive trading tool. And by adoption, I don't mean within the public/institution, I mean within the BTC owner, when they will adopt it as more than a trading tool and spend them on a daily basis. I will be expecting more stability. But, as I also mentioned in other previous post, I do believe that volatility would be brought back occasionally, when let's say changing to smaller unit of btc being traded or when paper btc will get in use as Venzen mention. Those significant changes are yet to come. Then stability might come. Well, stability or more-likely following it's own design, constant and slower uptrend.
  • #2,034
  • Feb 2, 2014 12:07pm Feb 2, 2014 12:07pm
Quoting lady_luck
{quote}consolidation, accumulation...
or distribution
  • #2,035
  • Feb 2, 2014 2:18pm Feb 2, 2014 2:18pm
Bitcoins and Beads: Debunking the Notion of Intrinsic Value
http://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/2014/...s-trade-beads/
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #2,036
  • Feb 2, 2014 2:29pm Feb 2, 2014 2:29pm
Quote
venzen


open source developer and researcher/explorer. keen interest in cryptocurrency and the implosion of fractal reserve banking

You forgot "and metaphysical elliottician voodooist"
Very good writing, rich in history, I gonna check out the reference links, I believe you've done some good work there to answer the tulipeople !
And intrinsic value, is so hard to define, but I believe you give a good answer to that !

Pretty good site as well, some good stuff in the french section.
Also dogecoin donation, interesting, is it becoming #3 ?
  • #2,037
  • Feb 2, 2014 3:14pm Feb 2, 2014 3:14pm
Quoting venzen
Bitcoins and Beads: Debunking the Notion of Intrinsic Value http://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/2014/...s-trade-beads/
Very well written!
  • #2,038
  • Feb 2, 2014 6:02pm Feb 2, 2014 6:02pm
Quoting venzen
Bitcoins and Beads: Debunking the Notion of Intrinsic Value http://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/2014/...s-trade-beads/
Well done Venzen.
Money Makes Money
  • #2,039
  • Feb 2, 2014 8:25pm Feb 2, 2014 8:25pm
A rather quiet weekend compared to the previous three according to the volume indicator.
emptymind..Your count is looking feasible.
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Money Makes Money
  • #2,040
  • Feb 3, 2014 6:16am Feb 3, 2014 6:16am
Quoting KiwiOz
A rather quiet weekend compared to the previous three according to the volume indicator. emptymind..Your count is looking feasible. {image} {image}
thanks.... i see your chart shows the uptrend line broken. waterfall drop ahead?

nice article venzen
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