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Bitcoin technical analysis

  • #1,941
  • Jan 28, 2014 7:04am Jan 28, 2014 7:04am
Good morning,

So, I spent a few hours reading the BTC-e trollbox, bitcointalk and other boards. I like to do so to get an idea of the general opinion. There a few people I like to read because they are significant marker of what is being thought at different levels of the BTC community.
I can't get into a more detail explanation with quote and source if you are interested into this kinda of research, but to stay simple It seems that small holder are getting very trigger itchy by these two month of sideways action. Once again their belief of good news pushing prices up has been disappointed. On the other hand medium holder seems pretty calm, not really trying to preach and lie as much as they use to, feels like they already took their position. I still believe large holder are to be neglected in term of significance for the market. So yes, as Emptymind said. lot of negativity and anxiousness. So i'm feeling positive and will wait and see what mid february brings.

Anyway, looking at things I found a few interesting counts Venzen, If you interested I can tell you more about those EW chartist history.

possible ED and zigzag
https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=http%3...kw_0r0RO_o8cmg

3-3-5 flat
https://www.tradingview.com/v/mfpi2W6F/
and a more recent one https://www.tradingview.com/v/pO8XEiEy/

dow tranport
https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=http%3...eFYD-wLvG6Lmvg
  • #1,942
  • Jan 28, 2014 7:23am Jan 28, 2014 7:23am
Quoting lady_luck
Good morning, So, I spent a few hours reading the BTC-e trollbox, bitcointalk and other boards. I like to do so to get an idea of the general opinion. There a few people I like to read because they are significant marker of what is being thought at different levels of the BTC community. I can't get into a more detail explanation with quote and source if you are interested into this kinda of research, but to stay simple It seems that small holder are getting very trigger itchy by these two month of sideways action. Once again their belief of good...
Wow. They're all different by a mile..The recent down trend begs the question. Who in their right mind would buy Bitcoins at the present price knowing there is a good possibility of buying them a half the going rate soon.??.....
Money Makes Money
  • #1,943
  • Jan 28, 2014 7:41am Jan 28, 2014 7:41am
Quoting KiwiOz
{quote} Wow. They're all different by a mile..The recent down trend begs the question. Who in their right mind would buy Bitcoins at the present price knowing there is a good possibility of buying them a half the going rate soon.??.....
I know, and I was asking myself the same question when a few week back someone did a single buy of 560+btc @960usd.
  • #1,944
  • Jan 28, 2014 7:50am Jan 28, 2014 7:50am
Quoting lady_luck
Good morning, So, I spent a few hours reading the BTC-e trollbox, bitcointalk and other boards. I like to do so to get an idea of the general opinion. There a few people I like to read because they are significant marker of what is being thought at different levels of the BTC community. I can't get into a more detail explanation with quote and source if you are interested into this kinda of research, but to stay simple It seems that small holder are getting very trigger itchy by these two month of sideways action. Once again their belief of good...
hi lady_luck,

the forums and chatrooms are interesting and the positive news keeps coming in. The SR issue is mysterious as you discussed in your previous - some foul play or smear campaign going on by the looks of it... like you say, it's hard to believe that people who were blatantly communicating in plain sight were setting up registered companies for illegal trade and substances. It doesn't add up. Nevermind.. it had the desired cathartic effects on the charts: drop hard and then rise like a phoenix from the ashes!

LL, i looked at the counts you posted and thanks for posting them because its always good to keep in touch with different angles of analysis. But to tell you my opinion: i don't rate WXY counting as effective or informative because one cannot pin it down to a rule or a guideline. Its really relative and can be adjusted for each new wave and still give no new insight. The fact that lots of people are using it tells me 2 things:

1) people are getting confused by these BTC advances that start with ABC. If they looked through price history they'd see it everywhere and at the start of every advance.. but they're obviously glossing over that to focus on the current wave action.

2) There is a general sense that more downside is "required". Like you say, people are getting disappointed by the failure of BTC to rise on good news. So the downside expectation is a kind of gloom and any negative news makes the bears to capitulate their belief that this is all going downhill. Yet we see that any drop is quickly reversed by market buyers coming in at lower prices - not via stop orders but via manually clicking the "Buy at Market" button. You also mentioned these 2 groups: medium and small players - i would also call them "experienced" and "inexperienced". There are a lot of new traders (and youngsters at that) who are piling into the cryptocurrencies and seemingly moving price by their sheer numbers. So lots of short TF anxiety trading I guess the general gloom can keep us going sideways for some time, although the low struck in the past 24 hours seems to have completed the correction - i cannot see which additional waves to add to this...?

I will only begin to trade these charts once all the exchanges have BTCUSD over $1000 - until then we just watch and wait...
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #1,945
  • Jan 28, 2014 8:08am Jan 28, 2014 8:08am
To me experienced and inexperienced is a subdivision of both small and medium player. Their is quiet a few kids with now 100+btc that were just LTC lucky in march. And on the other side people with less than 20btc who are way more experimented.

Yes It was also my opinion, those wxy are easy and changeable, specifically on the charts from trading we can see how in 10days the lable are simply move lower and higher but stay equally meaningless.

I really don't quiet see what's going on with the FBI, personally I don't think they have any end game coming. I think there is a BTC conference in Miami soon, and a new governmental hearing in the US, I'm gonna look for answer there
  • #1,946
  • Jan 28, 2014 8:14am Jan 28, 2014 8:14am
Quoting lady_luck
To me experienced and inexperienced is a subdivision of both small and medium player. Their is quiet a few kids with now 100+btc that were just LTC lucky in march. And on the other side people with less than 20btc who are way more experimented. Yes It was also my opinion, those wxy are easy and changeable, specifically on the charts from trading we can see how in 10days the lable are simply move lower and higher but stay equally meaningless. I really don't quiet see what's going on with the FBI, personally I don't think they have any end game coming....

yep, Miami is happening: http://www.coindesk.com/miami-bitcoi...in-regulation/

and i also saw something about SEC regulation hearings maybe tomorrow (Wed?)

edit: agree with your words 'small' and 'medium 'groups - me saying experienced and inexperienced was just a moment of mild stupidity
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #1,947
  • Jan 28, 2014 8:24am Jan 28, 2014 8:24am
H1 BTCe

I've got PA reversing at 810 (1.618 of wave A). Then it should retrace to 780(the top of wave A) before moving higher. If there is somehow another corrective structure to add here then so help me God...

(if i don't drink coffee right now i'm going fall asleep infront of the screen)

https://www.tradingview.com/x/GwCCemjv/
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #1,948
  • Jan 28, 2014 8:31am Jan 28, 2014 8:31am
Quoting venzen
{quote} yep, Miami is happening: http://www.coindesk.com/miami-bitcoi...in-regulation/ and i also saw something about SEC regulation hearings maybe tomorrow (Wed?) edit: agree with your words 'small' and 'medium 'groups - me saying experienced and inexperienced was just a moment of mild stupidity
No it's not stupid at all, it's a very interesting distinction. Usually that's what I look at when I want to take the temperature
medium/small holder --> experienced/inexperienced --> trustworthy/manipulator
Which make a total of 8 significant groups.

Hearing tomorrow ? Sounds good !
  • #1,949
  • Jan 28, 2014 8:40am Jan 28, 2014 8:40am
markets are full of wxy. it is just a more easy way of labeling. you get these combination corrections. example: w can be a zigzag; wave x can be a flat; wave y can be another flat or even a triangle.... it just has to make sense. im expecting wave 3 soon to break the fake support and sell off will start
  • #1,950
  • Jan 28, 2014 8:41am Jan 28, 2014 8:41am
Quoting lady_luck
{quote} No it's not stupid at all, it's a very interesting distinction. Usually that's what I look at when I want to take the temperature medium/small holder --> experienced/inexperienced --> trustworthy/manipulator Which make a total of 8 significant groups. Hearing tomorrow ? Sounds good !
the hearing outcome could be a rocket launcher (or a total fizzle out non-event!) As i understand it the hearings will basically decide on whether or not BTC is a legitimate instrument for ETF and derivatives creation (in the US) - i expect there will be some surprises (stealth regulation), some "we will decide on this aspect at a later date" and overall a go-ahead for vanilla-flavour ETFs. In this case Wall Street is going to get onboard and change our precious BTC charts forever...
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #1,951
  • Edited 9:04am Jan 28, 2014 8:49am | Edited 9:04am
Quoting venzen
{quote} the hearing outcome could be a rocket launcher (or a total fizzle out non-event!) As i understand it the hearings will basically decide on whether or not BTC is a legitimate instrument for ETF and derivatives creation (in the US) - i expect there will be some surprises (stealth regulation), some "we will decide on this aspect at a later date" and overall a go-ahead for vanilla-flavour ETFs. In this case Wall Street is going to get onboard and change our precious BTC charts forever...
It's interesting how dates are converging.
US hearing, chinese new year holiday, EWI-Nostradamus-Economical-Armageddon... And meanwhile January is going to it's end

edit : I've got one more potential wave down on LTC/BTC to 0.254.
EDIT 2: also interesting, since women actually represent less than 10% of the BTC holder population, found an article (not badly written) about BTC (well indirectly thru dogecoin) on a girl only blog. May be an other proof of step toward mainstreaming. http://www.autostraddle.com/go-home-...gecoin-219435/
  • #1,952
  • Jan 28, 2014 9:29am Jan 28, 2014 9:29am
Quoting emptymind
markets are full of wxy. it is just a more easy way of labeling. you get these combination corrections. example: w can be a zigzag; wave x can be a flat; wave z can be another flat or even a triangle.... it just has to make sense. im expecting wave 3 soon to break the fake support and sell off will start

fair enough, wxy labeling is meant for double and triple zigzags and corrective combinations. But in my experience using wxy notation easily turns into a slippery slope of ill discipline. I'm not saying I shun it - i've posted charts where I had no option but WXY because wave Y was a zigzag and labelling it C would just be plain wrong. Thing is i'm seeing guys slap wxy on anything they can't nail down - and i know they can't qualify the w and x and y because they often end up labelling the subwaves wxy as well... So in these instances we see one leg of a correction labelled WXY and then the next counter-trend leg (wave B position) also labeled WXY and it signifies nothing - no mode, no function, no forecast, you know what i mean?

just to be clear, i don't consider myself an expert wave counter and i make an effort not to judge anyone's count outright, but to comment on it and ask questions. We're all learning and a count is often only "solid" once the next wave structure has printed to provide context - so i try to avoid arguing about counts too, since my own counts are only correct 20% of the time anyway - why argue? As things stand I don't even trust everything that's written in EWP anymore so i am using labels in obvious places as reference points for discussion of repeating patterns/shapes. This may seem obnoxious and arrogant, but I find it necessary to formulate an appendix to EWP for those instances where i see anomalies that are not accounted for. KiwiOz, for example, has modified orthodox DeMark method to his own custom method and I've never seen anybody with greater success and consistency in forecasting targets (often to the pip).
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #1,953
  • Jan 28, 2014 9:40am Jan 28, 2014 9:40am
To be honest, I would love 69 or 110. I always have a bit of cash waiting to find a purpose.

But to reach those levels, you would need to be in a bear market. And by that i mean a year long bear market.
BTC has been there already. It's hard to find a chart prior to 2011, but that's an other thing that make me think that the label I (2011) follow by the first btc long term bear market can't be part of the actual cycle.
And if it was true, to see 69 and 110 we need people ready to sell at those level. Which can only happen on a long term bear market.
I believe you are hoping for a fast drop to sub 200 and bounce back to 1000+ within a few month, well in my opinion if you want someone to sell you BTC at those prices it won't be during a panic sell. And their won't be any bounce back up any time soon.

Let's consider someone that own 100btc bought at 600, today at 900, wake up tomorrow at 200, even if he knows it's going to 60 he won't sell (but surely will break his laptop lol).
On the other hand, BTC slowly go down, trapping the one that thought of a bargain at 400 to see 200 three month later, that guy might sell.
And that would be the only way I can imagine 60 or even objectively sub 600 as a target.

The PA for the last two month has been about fetching stop-losses sell order (that's what those triangle translate to), again, that doesn't fit the long term bear market scenario.

I'm not trying to contradict or trying to prove myself right, I'm just trying to understand the why of those target, by trying to putting words and sentences over waves labels.
  • #1,954
  • Jan 28, 2014 9:44am Jan 28, 2014 9:44am
Quoting lady_luck
{quote} It's interesting how dates are converging. US hearing, chinese new year holiday, EWI-Nostradamus-Economical-Armageddon... And meanwhile January is going to it's end edit : I've got one more potential wave down on LTC/BTC to 0.254. EDIT 2: also interesting, since women actually represent less than 10% of the BTC holder population, found an article (not badly written) about BTC (well indirectly thru dogecoin) on a girl only blog. May be an other proof of step toward mainstreaming. http://www.autostraddle.com/go-home-...gecoin-219435/...

the compound dates and events are really thick and fast. As Chinese New Year approaches my year of xtreme badluck is lifting like mist before the Sun - how wonderful!

It kinda makes sense that women only represent 10% of BTC holders because BTC is like "tech" and tech is "for boys" and all that traditional type-casting stuff. Same time, I think that eventually women might represent a majority - maybe because of all the equally type-casted women who shop for the household and for fun having a easy to use (via laptop and smartphone), low fee alternative. I read somewhere that women make more successful traders, which makes sense. As we know in many communities women drive the saving and investment clubs, so hopefully the women of the world will take to cryptocurrency and run with it - and change that 10% stat.

You have LTC/BTC making a lower low?
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #1,955
  • Jan 28, 2014 9:48am Jan 28, 2014 9:48am
110 was an error....

i am sticking to 65 because that is where wave 4 is. the cycle of 12345 followed by abc usually corrects back to wave 4 of a degree lower. that is the natural support......... unless you can show me 65 isn't where wave 4.......... im not 100% sure myself... but whereever is wave 4 of a degree lower is where the market will find natural support.
  • #1,956
  • Jan 28, 2014 10:00am Jan 28, 2014 10:00am
Quoting venzen
{quote}You have LTC/BTC making a lower low?
Actually no, not anymore, it just break out on the upside.

So you get your luck back soon ? Can I get you interested into NXTcoin then ? (I might need a push of your luck there )

I usually believe that when the smallest minority start to talk about it, it means closer step toward main acceptance. Seen that with most tech, from computer to internet, smartphone...
  • #1,957
  • Jan 28, 2014 11:25am Jan 28, 2014 11:25am
Quoting lady_luck
{quote} Can I get you interested into NXTcoin then ?.
tell me about NXT, i've been interested but the "buy-in" capital made me think it was a blatant pyramid scheme... so what's it all about, lady_luck?
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #1,958
  • Edited 11:52am Jan 28, 2014 11:42am | Edited 11:52am
Honestly I wouldn't recommend buying in, but I saw a LTC pattern (same chart as when ltc went from 3c to 30cents).
It could have potential, from what I understand it's the first coin that doesn't share any common algorithm in common with BTC. First, transaction are instant, which could be great for smaller p2p purchase. And their is no mining, they call it forging, it can be done as efficiency on any computer or device -even a smartphone. It uses time and quantity instead of GPU/CPU power, that I could translate by "mining the transaction fee" in relation to the number of shares of the block-chain you own. Which make it an eco-friendly coin to "mine" /forge. I would somewhat deny the pyramid scheme possibility since the creators had to buy with BTC the first coins. The creator are out in the open and are transparent about their own identity. It's 100%proof of stake, when peercoin use POS as a confirmation of proof of work. Which make it resistant to 51% and 90% attacks.

That's for the description on paper. Sounds great. But honestly, It's not BTC 2.0. But at least it brings some good innovation.
But as I said, my only motivation was the look of the chart and the consideration that this coin had a bit of potential for a one month old thing.
  • #1,959
  • Edited 9:14pm Jan 28, 2014 12:47pm | Edited 9:14pm
Quoting emptymind
110 was an error.... i am sticking to 65 because that is where wave 4 is. the cycle of 12345 followed by abc usually corrects back to wave 4 of a degree lower. that is the natural support......... unless you can show me 65 isn't where wave 4.......... im not 100% sure myself... but whereever is wave 4 of a degree lower is where the market will find natural support.

We're counting it differently (wave III doesn't have an extended subwave 5 in my count) and this is how I see the correction as completed to the previous 4th of one lesser degree. Of course one can count it differently so that wave 5 is extended but that correction where I currently have 3-4 is formidable and difficult to reinterpret. So according to this count we are in wave V at the moment:

https://www.tradingview.com/x/8npfqK1E/

and here is MtGox in log scale for the entire chart history:
(edit: the label iv under (iii) at top right should be 'v')

https://www.tradingview.com/x/t9cqsPmn/
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #1,960
  • Jan 28, 2014 11:04pm Jan 28, 2014 11:04pm
Heads up people./////..........There's something about this pattern that has me gazing NORTH........Not sure yet but keeping the eyes open.
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