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XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

  • #32,181
  • Edited 5:55am Jan 27, 2014 5:54am | Edited 5:55am
It looks like gold may bottom here today and retrace to higher levels. Can't explain why I imagine that other than the potential geometry and lack of volume at this low level. THere's just so little interest in the market at the moment. This just looks like it's about to round up and go long. I hope it continues going short, but that 3pm GMTt announcement on USD concerns me that I won't be able to leave the trade alone to work.
You win, you lose. All else is history. The future does not exist.
  • #32,182
  • Jan 27, 2014 6:00am Jan 27, 2014 6:00am
Quoting thodie
totally agree rhodie, itīs really hard to say doulbe bottom or just retracement. support at 1.255 12h chart please notice the SMA200 {image}
Been out of the Gold scene for a few days. Don't like trading retracements.
One step at a time. First target is 1246 which is a little more than a 61.8 retrace from 1279.
The way I see it the retrace is over. I could be wrong so do your own analysis before taking a trade. I believe we are about to embark on wave 5 of 5 taking gold down to around 1015 with a few speed bumps on the way, notably at around 1140.
I see quite a few are calling a double bottom. Maybe, maybe not. For a double bottom to be confirmed price will need to advance above 1435.
I think too much notice is being given to so called "experts" who in my opinion just happened to guess right once in the past.!!!
You may note this retracement has gone to a 50% Fib' The previous retrace went to the 61.8% Fib' These is classic Tech' wave patterns which cannot be ignored.
Having said all that. Hell I could be wrong. Time will tell.
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Money Makes Money
  • #32,183
  • Jan 27, 2014 7:08am Jan 27, 2014 7:08am
...no action, time for a nap.
The good thing with the future is that it is progressively approaching...
  • #32,184
  • Jan 27, 2014 7:46am Jan 27, 2014 7:46am

Quoting spinozagr
...no action, time for a nap.
  • #32,185
  • Jan 27, 2014 8:14am Jan 27, 2014 8:14am
Quoting spinozagr
...no action, time for a nap.

You win, you lose. All else is history. The future does not exist.
  • #32,186
  • Jan 27, 2014 8:38am Jan 27, 2014 8:38am
For discussion sake:

"www.marketwatch.com/story/nothing-will-deter-fed-from-tapering-this-week-2014-01-27"

Federal Reserve officials will likely agree on another $10 billion taper to its bond-purchase program this coming FOMC.

What will be the QE tapering effect on gold?
The true fact is market doesn't care, risk mgt is important.
  • #32,187
  • Jan 27, 2014 8:50am Jan 27, 2014 8:50am
Quoting Ssm
For discussion sake: "www.marketwatch.com/story/nothing-will-deter-fed-from-tapering-this-week-2014-01-27" Federal Reserve officials will likely agree on another $10 billion taper to its bond-purchase program this coming FOMC. What will be the QE tapering effect on gold?
Don't think you will find many experts on this matter. My humble opinion is that the old foxes will start buying aggressively at that point but only after scaring the market.
  • #32,188
  • Jan 27, 2014 9:00am Jan 27, 2014 9:00am
Quoting Ssm
For discussion sake: ... What will be the QE tapering effect on gold?
Gold should in theory rise in price, however, because the world really is in a serious position of decline in available wealth it will probably go dow. so the question is this: If the FED tapers will the Euro begin to suffer deflation? Probably. How does that affect US business? Negatively as there are ferwer markets to trade with. What does that mean in the longer term? reduced demand for production in China returning the world to a renewed recession when all has failed and we then face the inevitable FISCAL CLIFF. A new global depression that makes the 1929 crash look like a miniature model of the future.

Often people sak me how this is possible; well imagine a game of monoply on a global scale? Like that. 50% of the world's wealth is owned by 83 people. They hold the equivalent wealth of the world's 3.5 billion poorest. That is verifiable on the web if you want to look it up. So 83 people own enough to sway global economies to their way of thinking by shifting a few investments that they want to move for no other reason than wanting to move them. If just 11 of them do the same thing, then entire economies move stronger or weaker. They hold the geen streets, the dark blue streets and the red streets and the orange streets. And trhey own all the hotels on those streets. How much longer will the other players last before the entire game is monopolised? It's a logorimic scale increase at a rate eqivalent to double the net global inflation rate. As each country begins to fail, so will their profit increase and value increase.

Poverty is not a crime, but not sharing wealth should be. Those tax havens need to be eliminated. Tax should be levied on all money generated within a country and not refunded. Just because a foreign country raised to income, does not mean they should become exempt from the tax due on that revenue. Worth considering for the politicians.
You win, you lose. All else is history. The future does not exist.
  • #32,189
  • Jan 27, 2014 9:11am Jan 27, 2014 9:11am
Quoting The Rhodie
{quote} Gold should in theory rise in price, .....
Shouldnt Gold fall in theory? Tapering = stronger USD. Stronger USD = Weaker Gold.

Looking at tapering the last round, Gold fell.
The true fact is market doesn't care, risk mgt is important.
  • #32,190
  • Jan 27, 2014 9:14am Jan 27, 2014 9:14am
Quoting Ssm
{quote} Shouldnt Gold fall in theory? Tapering = stronger USD. Stronger USD = Weaker Gold. Looking at tapering the last round, Gold fell.
As the FED taper, other markets rise, but the bonds are weak returns so that means that there is every chance that the smart money buy gold and sell bonds. At the correct rate, that might mean slight rise in gold and fall in Euro values meaning that foreign investors turn to gold as a loger term hedge against inflation/deflation and reduced trade. A comlex area of economics as not everytihing is fully understood yet.
You win, you lose. All else is history. The future does not exist.
  • #32,191
  • Jan 27, 2014 9:43am Jan 27, 2014 9:43am
Quoting The Rhodie
{quote} As the FED taper, other markets rise, but the bonds are weak returns so that means that there is every chance that the smart money buy gold and sell bonds. At the correct rate, that might mean slight rise in gold and fall in Euro values meaning that foreign investors turn to gold as a loger term hedge against inflation/deflation and reduced trade. A comlex area of economics as not everytihing is fully understood yet.

I must say.... you are one of the posters on this thread that gives great detail to the economics without being too biased toward one direction or another. I am sure that you are very sucessful trader because of your willingness to make money regardless if the market is in a bear or bull cycle.

I enjoy your post on the fundamentals~!
Luck has no place in trading. Leave that for the poker table.
  • #32,192
  • Jan 27, 2014 10:46am Jan 27, 2014 10:46am
Quoting Pair-me-up
{quote} I must say.... you are one of the posters on this thread that gives great detail to the economics without being too biased ... I enjoy your post on the fundamentals~!
Thank you. Bias nails your opposing trade's coffin shut and halves the potential profit available in a day's trade.
You win, you lose. All else is history. The future does not exist.
  • #32,193
  • Jan 27, 2014 1:29pm Jan 27, 2014 1:29pm
Quoting XTrade
{quote} What was it the 21? I actually like using the simple 21 on the Daily actually it can show nice trend confirmation for days or weeks once the PA accepts it. The flip from long to short or vice versa is where people should either stay out or be extra aggressive I am making a demo for the thread and shopping around a few brokers. I think the forum only accepts MT4 accounts which I don't have one live - or at least live that I trade. Oh, sorry went off base. In any case I think I have a nice chart up right now on the 21 let me just see and I...
The rejection of Daily 20sma was where I longed it but I was expecting a bounce at daily 7sma.This time daily 7 didn't stop it .Watch how daily 7 ( or 6 )-20-50 works in harmony.

Quoting okanemici
{quote} {quote} It's a pity to miss the big part of this long since I longed it at the rejection of the daily 20. I was in 1233 and out at 1245 and shorted believing it would make a similar move like 02.08.2013-08.08.2013 to fake more people but it didn't.I changed my mind when it broke 1248 but then I was stopped out Now it seems to have a daily 20-50 crossup which seems quite bullish.But I'm not in a hurry.If this will continue bullish It will make a sharp pullback ( similar pullback to 12.08.2013-15.08.2013) to around 124x in the next week...



Do you see how gold pull backed as I stated on the weekend ? The place it should stop is 1248 or 1240 max if it wants to go up !!!
  • #32,194
  • Jan 27, 2014 1:38pm Jan 27, 2014 1:38pm
any idea for this sharp drop?
The good thing with the future is that it is progressively approaching...
  • #32,195
  • Jan 27, 2014 2:02pm Jan 27, 2014 2:02pm
wave 5 come to me

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  • #32,196
  • Jan 27, 2014 2:33pm Jan 27, 2014 2:33pm
Quoting XTrade
{quote} What was it the 21? I actually like using the simple 21 on the Daily actually it can show nice trend confirmation for days or weeks once the PA accepts it. The flip from long to short or vice versa is where people should either stay out or be extra aggressive I am making a demo for the thread and shopping around a few brokers. I think the forum only accepts MT4 accounts which I don't have one live - or at least live that I trade. Oh, sorry went off base. In any case I think I have a nice chart up right now on the 21 let me just see and I...
This is what I plan after this move down !
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  • #32,197
  • Jan 27, 2014 4:35pm Jan 27, 2014 4:35pm
http://i42.tinypic.com/29kxf8g.png

Hi XT,

Last 24 hours price drop around $27
Now price is 1256.83

Base on my chart above, gold now still move inside Major Support 1240.42 and Major Resistant 1290.40. And in daily base gold now move inside Minor Support 1245.97 and Minor Resistant 1266.86. Daily trend base on last 24 hours price is down.

My short term plan for today is waiting price move to Minor Support or Minor Resistant to set the entry.

Have a nice trade,


DRT
  • #32,198
  • Jan 27, 2014 6:58pm Jan 27, 2014 6:58pm
Quoting Drentaga
{image} Hi XT, Last 24 hours price drop around $27 Now price is 1256.83 Base on my chart above, gold now still move inside Major Support 1240.42 and Major Resistant 1290.40. And in daily base gold now move inside Minor Support 1245.97 and Minor Resistant 1266.86. Daily trend base on last 24 hours price is down. My short term plan for today is waiting price move to Minor Support or Minor Resistant to set the entry. Have a nice trade, DRT
Just wondering: if tapering has been already priced in, what else can make gold run fast on Wed? Any idea on things that may happen at the FOMC on Wednseday? I only see the possibility of some dovishness risk
  • #32,199
  • Edited 8:25pm Jan 27, 2014 8:14pm | Edited 8:25pm
Quoting Drentaga
{image} Hi XT, Last 24 hours price drop around $27 Now price is 1256.83 Base on my chart above, gold now still move inside Major Support 1240.42 and Major Resistant 1290.40. And in daily base gold now move inside Minor Support 1245.97 and Minor Resistant 1266.86. Daily trend base on last 24 hours price is down. My short term plan for today is waiting price move to Minor Support or Minor Resistant to set the entry. Have a nice trade, DRT
I have a short 1258 now to reach 1248 and look for reversals there between 1240-1248.
P.S:My order was not so big but it dropped 2 dollars after I sold . Seemed like a bounce off 15 min 50 sma.
  • #32,200
  • Jan 28, 2014 2:46am Jan 28, 2014 2:46am
Good day...

XAUUSD 1H

Bearish technical patterns indicate weakness to support.
Perhaps a need to review 1242 target but will short if we close below 1257... My bullishness on Gold is fading

FOMC - on-going but reducing asset purchase = strengthening DXY? I think yes but not bullish
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