Bitcoin technical analysis

Bitcoin is a bubble - Nobel Laureate in Economics


worth a read - take it with a grain of salt

Corrections consistently return to the level of the previous 4th wave (of one degree smaller)

http://ubuntuone.com/6Klptt5SNIx5evhPqev32O

Nice chart, are you also looking at 680 ?

correction closer up:

Two paths for PA - up or down from here - but looking at the stochastics at the top, they have been oversold for a while and are now indicating divergence (blue dots). The green path seems more likely - especially with the fractal similarity to the previous correction of one lesser degree - they even have the same subwave structure (although this last wave dipped lower than is usual for BTC)

http://ubuntuone.com/20eAMrVaVPUMaVMBMMOzFS

hi LL,

i saw your comment after posting...

well, i think it's feasible that PA go lower but in the end unlikely - because of the last chart I posted.

After looking at the way corrections always pull back to the previous fourth wave, it's apparent the same thing has happened here - as it also did at the end of October and in almost every correction since - a lot of them not shown on the first chart because it would become too cluttered. The entire abcde correction since November pulled back to a 4th wave (not highlighted on the chart) and I think this correction we're in here has completed. If NOT, then it should go finish it's purpose near 450.

Thinking about 680 - it could happen, but look at the previous correction (circled in purple) - it's downward subwaves meet that upward sloping green TL - they don't return to exactly the same level each time. I think this correction is respecting that same principle and same TL. But if it went to 680 or 450 it wouldn't be breaking any rules!

Yes I remember the conversation we had a few weeks back about the correction being within the previous forth. so I think I get what you mean.
Well the low I was excepting were reach on LTC and LTC/btc (by the way i'm pretty happy with the result of that "hedging experiment"), but it still could go lower, may be 17 and 0.023, so that would works with BTC correction not being fully over yet.

It does all work together in case of lower lows - and also if we are at the start of an advance - although PA is quite slow right now, I've turned my sights upward.

Glad the hedging via LTC worked out for you! I cut my hedge at 800 and was watching PA drop to 750 with big annoyance... anyhow, I've learnt my lesson about BTC and contracting triangles: it doesn't make contracting triangles! BTC does decline in 5 waves almost every time but not between neat converging TLs, so I'm going to stop drawing them and compare with previous PA patterns such as in these charts. Thanks for pointing out the similarity to Oct - that really motivated me to figure it out (again)

I've got a hedge order waiting below 750 just in case - but right now I've got to get some sleep. Good Luck, lady_luck!

Thank you Good luck to you too
Yeah october is interesting, a similar pattern emerged before any major BTC bullrun (april, 2011..), could be a wave 1 of the uptrend or the last of the downtrend.

Dogecoin, such currency, much profit, so shareable wow

Bow Wow Wow!!

smartypants, are you mining the Doge? If so, what's the hashrate and daily takings with this coin? And exchanges - what are the ways to get BTC, USD etc for DGC ? I'm asking because I'm about to unleash DayCoin and NightCoin - as an interdependent pair - do you think it will catch on? Seriously though, if you're mining please tell me more.

6 Bitcoin customers confirmed for Virgin Galactic space flight
http://www.coindesk.com/richard-bran...-space-filght/

it has not yet been confirmed that they're FBI or US Marshall's Office employees...

Either they're miners from the early days or they're traders who caught that November wave just right

some lines and boxes show S&R. Not shown on the chart is a major Fib overlap at 850 of 0.76 of the entire wave to ATH; 0.76 of the Dec advance; and 0.5 of the initial wave down in beginning Jan. It corresponds with the top of the smaller rectangle and will most likely be the next consolidation level before advance to 1000.

No count is annotated but I have this entire corrective structure up here as a wave 4, so wherever we go to the upside, we should be returning to the 800 area in a larger correction to come later!

edit - this is BTC-e H1 BTCUSD (apologies no price or dates, my charts are broken at this time)

Yes, started mining some days ago. The block reward will halve in abot 20 days now, so now it´s a good time to mine. I think the price will go up when the reward halves aswell, so it´s a good time to get some too. Got a total of 1MH/s

Doge has really taken off, such community, much people, wow. You can get Doge on Bter.com or other exchanges. It´s trade in BTC. I bought at 87 satoshi, and 180 satoshi.

Venze: Not sure about your coins. To me, it seams like the inflation we´re brought up with is manifesting its self in just more deflationary currencies. If it´s nothing new, except a name. I am not so sure it will catch on, you need an edge. The future will be building more services for bitcoin. Make a business that offers all the finacial instruments that exist in the old world with bitcoin ie.

What more do you need to know? A forexfactory currency would be more interesting though with lots of coins. The good thing with Doge is that it´s so many of them. So if you got 1000 Doge it about 1.3USD, this is a nice playaround currency. People learn to send and receive, take backup, make paper wallets++++ With out the risk of loosing lots of value. A n00b friendly coin. Withoug elitism of bitcoin or litecoin.

-s-

Thanks for explaining some more about Dogecoin. I have some DGC in a Coins-e wallet/account and think it's a fun twist on the Bitcoin theme - like you say - easy, n00b-friendly and just real enough to still have some objective value.

I was joking about Night and Day coin - but as for a thread specific coin I am serious: for experimentation, gaining some understanding of the Bitcoin model of cryptocurrency and also for anyone who cares to experience mining - it seems this is an aspect of Bitcoin/cryptoC that has captured the imagination and interest of a lot of people. With these goals in mind I designed and compiled a coin with low difficulty and a short block timespan - so CPU mining will be easily achieved. I'm currently testing on my network, utilizing the same two laptops I use to trade, so I've had to add some code to the scrypt mining algorithm to slow it down, else my CPU spikes to 100% usage and trade and comms s-l-o-w r-i-g-h-t d-o-w-n ! To compensate for slower mining I increased the probability of mining finding a solution to any given block hash. So, yeah - C++ headache and all, it's been a useful experience working with the Bitcoin source code - thanks for showing me where to find it!

It's interesting to have a view into the code (which is well-written and optimal IMO) as well as interfacing daily with the financial world via forex/commodities and all the associated news. Mostly, developers working fulltime on code have no idea how their creations are perceived by the public. And the public, in turn, do not understand the developer world, Open Source and the rigour (or quality assurance) that goes into producing a software app. I think Bitcoin is an example where the two worlds misjudge oneanother - with the nastiness (and complete underestimation) coming mostly from the financial camp: The developers understand their creation and know it's security and purpose, and they offer it to the world with pride and the best explanation they (as developers not PR specialists) can make. But the public is suspicious: anonymous architects? developers? who do they work for? (not understanding the community-driven, make-your-name-by-contributing OSS model) and then the vagueness of the origins and the fact that there isn't a popular brand or corporate behind it (IBM, Nasa, etc) makes them think it's an ill-conceived Napster clone created by a bunch of "pizza, beer and porn" geeks who dropped out of school to become hacker anarchists

Well, that's probably the truth on all counts, but coding convention, patch submission process and unit testing circumvents any slackness on the part of the programmer and there was (is) clearly a QA "polit buro" behind the scenes somewhere - judging from the quality of the code and it's structural organisation. But one thing is for sure, the general public and most users and lovers/haters of Bitcoin are unaware of the inherent seriousness of the thing - if politicians and economists could actually see the implications they would have neutralised this threat at the start. Now it's too late.

For this reason I think it's brilliant that there are altcoins popping up. They allow exploration of the cryptoC concept and put the Bitcoin source code to fun use and helpful testing - surely something Satoshi Nakamoto intended by licensing the idea as Open Source. Dogecoin is a prime example and we'll add to the fun and experimentation here.



I'll be making the coin available via GitHub once we have agreed on some design principles (and a name) here in the thread. I was able to figure out the Linux/Mac Qt static lib compilation, but will have to install a Windows VM to compile for WIndows. SO a few more weeks.

Comparison of mid-Dec reversal with yesterday's PA

I keep searching for confirmation that I'm seeing right - that trend has reversed. Here is a comparison between the reversal from the Dec low and yesterday's apparent reversal. Dec PA is at the upper chart and yesterday's the lower. So far there is great similarity: an A wave followed by a deep (50% or more) retracement in wave B and then a C wave (equal or longer than A). Repeat with a parabolic upward curve to new highs. The current wave is slightly bigger than the Dec waves and this is to be expected since if we just completed a 4th wave then wave degree would have increased for an extended 5th as is typical for BTC. Also notice how in Dec the first wave down was an ABC and yesterday's first correction was ABCDE. In my view this confirms that that is a B wave correcting the first push up and not a wave 2. I am counting wave 1 as the 3 waves from 750 to 800 => ABC or we only have wave A of wave 1 complete at the moment, with B and C to follow... but that will be a massive shift in degree and a bit scary too. Time, as they say, will tell.

console output during mining process showing a block hash being solved, payout and a new block being created:

According to the comparison chart posted before, we're about to climb above 800 (BTC-e) and then consolidate around there before moving on to 850 for a PA vs Fib fightnight.

Nothing to move the earth or anything, but 4 Bitcoin "upgrades" coming this year:
http://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/2014/...ed-mike-hearn/

Logarithmic scale

switching to log scale really puts the BTC chart in a different perspective.

MtGox weekly

https://www.tradingview.com/x/2HepBfHT/

log scale can also give you "Holy Crap!" moments like this:

https://www.tradingview.com/x/o9Z4Whkc/