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XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

  • #32,061
  • Jan 23, 2014 11:10am Jan 23, 2014 11:10am
Quoting datdle
it will run to 1280 !!!

Really? What can you show to prove that you may be right?

No chart is as good as keeping quiet, imo.
You win, you lose. All else is history. The future does not exist.
  • #32,062
  • Jan 23, 2014 11:12am Jan 23, 2014 11:12am
Quoting JimmyC
Not every day you see a gravestone doji followed by strength {image}
Its not that uncommon, remember an H1 gravestone doji might be something else on H4, or even the daily, its very risky to take a trade based on one candlestick.
"Where you want to be is always in control, never wishing, always trading.
  • #32,063
  • Jan 23, 2014 11:52am Jan 23, 2014 11:52am
Quoting Spec_And
{quote} Its not that uncommon, remember an H1 gravestone doji might be something else on H4, or even the daily, its very risky to take a trade based on one candlestick.
Do tell
  • #32,064
  • Jan 23, 2014 12:23pm Jan 23, 2014 12:23pm
Quoting Spec_And
{quote} Its not that uncommon, remember an H1 gravestone doji might be something else on H4, or even the daily, its very risky to take a trade based on one candlestick.
What on earth is a trader's term "gravestone"? The death of a run? Missed entry on the beginning of a run? Funeral of sombody's account? And what is a doji? Something like a dojo, but outdoors? Must be japanese or summat...
You win, you lose. All else is history. The future does not exist.
  • #32,065
  • Edited 12:38pm Jan 23, 2014 12:37pm | Edited 12:38pm
Trading is like an illness:

A man went to the doctor because he didn't feel that he was 100% right. He told his doctor what he felt and the doctor prescribed a treatment that was, well, unorthodox. The man thinking that because the doctor had prescribed the treatment was a professional decided to accept the course and continued it for the 14 day period. After the treatment was concluded, he went back to the doctor. The man said that he still felt unwell, but that the treatment seemed to work. The doctor then prescribed the treatment again for a further 7 days and left the man to his devices.

After 14 days the busy doctor thought that the patient had recovered and was well again since he had not returned for a check-up. The doctor was well and continued to do his work as before.

The man had taken the doctor's advice and continued the treatment for a week. At the end of the week, the treatment had left him in such a terrible state that he ended up in a coma in hospital and died 3 days later.

Moral of the story:

Just because you see someone give some apparently good "professional" advice and you accept it as such, it does not mean that their way is right for you even if they are good at what they do. The inherent danger is that you do not know how their trades work for them as you have not sat with them and learned their system with them. Taking trades based on other people's advice and using "unorthodox treatment" on your system could prove fatal to your account in the end. Be wise in your application of advice based upon your experiences and knowledge of your system.

Hope this helps many newbies out there.
You win, you lose. All else is history. The future does not exist.
  • #32,066
  • Jan 23, 2014 12:39pm Jan 23, 2014 12:39pm
Second opinions can betray your personal confidence. Stick to what you know and if you don't know, don't do it.
You win, you lose. All else is history. The future does not exist.
  • #32,067
  • Jan 23, 2014 1:09pm Jan 23, 2014 1:09pm
I know it sound biased and i have no explanation ... but i have never been convinced of Gold short setup as if of today!
* Anyway, to take it step by step: I will see how my 1261 short will be doing ... sliver is reacting strangely!
"It's the Margin, Stupid."
  • #32,068
  • Jan 23, 2014 2:02pm Jan 23, 2014 2:02pm
Quoting The Rhodie
{quote} What on earth is a trader's term "gravestone"? The death of a run? Missed entry on the beginning of a run? Funeral of sombody's account? And what is a doji? Something like a dojo, but outdoors? Must be japanese or summat...
Its a candlestick that resembles a tombstone.
"Where you want to be is always in control, never wishing, always trading.
  • #32,069
  • Jan 23, 2014 2:05pm Jan 23, 2014 2:05pm
Quoting Greenstar
{quote} He is the 'guy' who wrote with David Kranzler the 100% thorough article on gold manipulation I posted earlier (http://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2014...-manipulation/) - one can find out about him by reading the 'about' on his website. Others have said what he says about the US gold vault. As to being trustworthy in my opinion for what it is worth, he absolutely is - he doesn't have a reason to fabricate what he says. Because he tells the truth, he has lost friends, has a list of former (or self-protectively...
Thank you,
a german Mr. Dimitriy Speck also pubilshed some infos, he had collected hughe amount of data over the years and found statistically evidence of manipulation in the gold market.
just do it
  • #32,070
  • Jan 23, 2014 2:17pm Jan 23, 2014 2:17pm
Quoting Greener
{quote} some things he says (i.e. about Germany) were of public dominion, some other things are just assumptions with no evidence....they can be true though...my question is, if COMEX is rigged why are people still trading in it? When Germany asked FED its gold back, Bernanke famously said that it would take some time to put together that amount of metal and gave the impression the FED no longer stores gold. If you add the fact that nobody is allowed to check FED gold deposits, the conclusion is easy to draw. The story about naked shorts is plausible...
Possible,
the U.S. Export decrease...

The point is, china is able to buy 400tons of gold 2012 and US Fed as the official "biggest" gold holder in the world isnīt able to
ship 40tons of gold to europe? *hm*

see grafics below: china imports gold from where? exactly switzerland and hong kong
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Total-US-Gold-Bullion-Exports-2013-Jan-Oct.png Size: 39 KB
Attached Image
just do it
  • #32,071
  • Jan 23, 2014 2:43pm Jan 23, 2014 2:43pm
Quoting XTrade
{quote} Yeah I was thinking about this - and that 100 or 90 would be VERY HIGH for the GSR to be- but, keep in mind if they both gain in price long term it could mean something like this. AU = 5000 AG = 60 And that's a crazy ratio of like 84.4 If I remember correctly. Also 4 x Gold at current and 3 x silver at current. I doubt seeing it. It is interesting to keep an eye on though over the months and see what happens. Unemployment out in ONE MINURE.
Yes thatīs crazy value from todays point of view, i would feel better with 2.500$ / 83$


donīt know if i showed this grafics before, quite a correlation between decline of POG and chinese imports, see the pictures below:

and here are some data about :
comex, nymex stocks and SPDR inventory: http://www.markt-daten.de/charts/roh...delmetalle.htm

comex store gold ~8.000.000oz
comex store silver ~ 170.000.000oz

a store ratio of 21.25; ok its abstract to put ratio over the store as silver need more space to store than gold.

overall gold declines fast, silver is stable/ to minimal , and platium stores are rising

fundamentals over for today, bed is calling!

was a nice day for all gold bugs, gold is now on the descending TL a closing price above would be nice
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: import.PNG Size: 21 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: china-gold-import-september-2013.png Size: 31 KB
just do it
  • #32,072
  • Jan 23, 2014 3:18pm Jan 23, 2014 3:18pm
Quoting Spec_And
{quote} Its a candlestick that resembles a tombstone.
I suppose you mean a side view of a tombstone? Tombstones are many shapes, like angels, vehicles, even a taper! So it makes even less sense to me now than before.
Here's a real tombstone, so what are you referring to?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Image1.png Size: 670 KB
You win, you lose. All else is history. The future does not exist.
  • #32,073
  • Jan 23, 2014 4:58pm Jan 23, 2014 4:58pm
Does anyone knows, what happens when Gold diverege with Sliver ...! I kind of understand that Gold is a metal leader and Sliver is kind of begging it , but someone i'm not comfortable with Gold rising and Sliver falling. I'm thinking to short Gold and long Sliver just in case. But, i'm a bit worried this divergence continues .
"It's the Margin, Stupid."
  • #32,074
  • Jan 23, 2014 5:09pm Jan 23, 2014 5:09pm
Gold in this case acted as safe haven, with treasuries. Silver acted as industrial metal, so economies are slowing globaly, less manufacturing, less silver, copper, etc.
  • #32,075
  • Jan 23, 2014 5:12pm Jan 23, 2014 5:12pm
Quoting vaidas7777
Gold in this case acted as safe haven, with treasuries. Silver acted as industrial metal, so economies are slowing globaly, less manufacturing, less silver, copper, etc.
Or the rumors that moved the price, was only concerning Gold ...!
"It's the Margin, Stupid."
  • #32,076
  • Jan 23, 2014 5:16pm Jan 23, 2014 5:16pm
Whatever. I hope in few hours I see panicking east markets, which will push up gold. Until London session, and then somebody will promise Something and gold will plunge.
  • #32,077
  • Jan 23, 2014 5:19pm Jan 23, 2014 5:19pm
If my suspecion is true, this rally over a rumor is just to remove the top at 1268 , then down we go to remove the bottom .. ( To clean the shorts first, then turn to clean the longs , then make a move )

If i'm correct, the rally will fade early Monday if not late Friday ...
If i'm wrong and price keeps on advancing, i will buy sliver as a hedge and then average out.
"It's the Margin, Stupid."
  • #32,078
  • Jan 23, 2014 5:22pm Jan 23, 2014 5:22pm
This week and next historicaly was bad for gold and good for silver for 30 years. So In your case I should catch shorts for gold.

Oh, good ideas:

Inserted Video
  • #32,079
  • Jan 23, 2014 6:34pm Jan 23, 2014 6:34pm
Quoting Vachus
I know it sound biased and i have no explanation ... but i have never been convinced of Gold short setup as if of today! * Anyway, to take it step by step: I will see how my 1261 short will be doing ... sliver is reacting strangely!
Gold is breaking and closing above last week high, but Silver is not.
Does the 2 has any correlation?
The true fact is market doesn't care, risk mgt is important.
  • #32,080
  • Jan 23, 2014 7:12pm Jan 23, 2014 7:12pm
Quoting Ssm
{quote} Gold is breaking and closing above last week high, but Silver is not. Does the 2 has any correlation?
Well, i went back to check for a Gold & sliver diverging on a H1 chart ... i found two incidents and price correct almost in the next few hours. So, i putting the case " Either Sliver is mis priced by around half a dollar , or the last 20 dollar move on Gold is fake ".
"It's the Margin, Stupid."
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