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XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

  • #31,841
  • Jan 20, 2014 9:52pm Jan 20, 2014 9:52pm
I am not newbie =)
200 Simple Moving Average
Gold Annihilation System
  • #31,842
  • Jan 20, 2014 9:58pm Jan 20, 2014 9:58pm
Quoting Hunterrus
I am not newbie =) 200 Simple Moving Average
Thanks =)
  • #31,843
  • Jan 21, 2014 12:32am Jan 21, 2014 12:32am
I think both silver and gold will break up. See my chart. It was made on sunday so its not really up to date.
I have put the SL at 18$ and TP around 23$ for Silver trade. Think it is great probability.
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Twitter: FutureRates
  • #31,844
  • Jan 21, 2014 1:19am Jan 21, 2014 1:19am
My daily analysis for Tue 21st:
After a good rally in gold from the attempt to reach 1180.17, gold has had a good run. On annual scale (MN-W1) charts, gold has been a bear market for 2 years now. It does not yet look like that trend is completed, however if gold continues to rise above 1400 I would then say that it is really bearish still. It doesn't look that strong at all.

Looking at the monthly scale charts it looks like gold has had a nice range that it's been in a holding pattern between 1180 and 1280. That's a good range of $100 for more than a month. There's reasons for that, but I don't know what they are completely. W1- H4.

Daily charts say that gold is bullish with internal trends for intraday trades to be fairly safe within that $100 range. Today I am expecting gold to fall ove rat some point if it's as bearish as it appears. the chances are that gold could be rangebound until MY open with indications that it needs to break free of the convergence points. If gold breaks north and goes long it is open waters with few fib levels to mark resistance and loads of historical data to mark points on a north trend. If gold breaks south of 1251.23 it will find more and more support the further south it goes.

In my opinion, gold is hunting for resistance for going long and is possibly setting up fo an AB=CD pattern to go short. It is looking for it's C point for the CD leg down. That being the case I am expecting gold to push down over a few weeks to 1140 with a very bumpy ride down before it goes long on an even longer time scale.

We shall see. The future does not exist and therefore nobody can predict it. There is only destiny which is not like fate...
You win, you lose. All else is history. The future does not exist.
  • #31,845
  • Jan 21, 2014 1:28am Jan 21, 2014 1:28am
Your failures are active trader's successes

Is this the real reason bitcoin is so successful? Maybe every bitcoin should be cryptoserialized against criminal use. Once identified in criminal use it becomes invalid. That would soon hyperinflationise bitcoin...

http://www.businessinsider.com/invis...graphic-2014-1

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-0...urprise-upside
You win, you lose. All else is history. The future does not exist.
  • #31,846
  • Jan 21, 2014 1:59am Jan 21, 2014 1:59am
The Retail Death Rattle


“I was part of that strange race of people aptly described as spending their lives doing things they detest, to make money they don’t want, to buy things they don’t need, to impress people they don’t like.” - Emile Gauvreau
http://images.smh.com.au/2011/08/02/...till-420x0.jpg
If ever a chart provided unequivocal proof the economic recovery storyline is a fraud, the one below is the smoking gun. Even the heavyweights like Wal-Mart and Target continue to report negative comp store sales.
http://s.wsj.net/public/resources/im...0116182703.jpg
The entire economic recovery storyline is a sham built upon easy money funneled by the Fed to the Too Big To Trust Wall Street banks so they can use their HFT supercomputers to drive the stock market higher, buy up the millions of homes they foreclosed upon to artificially drive up home prices, and generate profits through rigging commodity, currency, and bond markets, while reducing loan loss reserves because they are free to value their toxic assets at anything they please – compliments of the spineless nerds at the FASB. The absolute collapse in retail visitor counts is the warning siren that this country is about to collide with the reality Americans have run out of time, money, jobs, and illusions. The collapse in foot traffic to the 109,500 shopping centers that crisscross our suburban sprawl paradise of plenty is irreversible. The reason this death spiral cannot be reversed is simply a matter of arithmetic and demographics. Once the Wall Street created fraud collapsed and the waves of delusion subsided, retailers have been revealed to be swimming naked.
http://advisorperspectives.com/dshor...since-2000.gif
The media mouthpieces for the establishment gloss over the fact average gasoline prices in 2013 were the second highest in history. The fact oil prices have risen from $25 per barrel in 2003 to $100 per barrel today has not only impacted gas prices, but utility costs, food costs, and the price of any product that needs to be transported to your local Wally World. The laughable jobs recovery touted by Obama, his sycophantic minions, paid off economist shills, and the discredited corporate legacy media can be viewed appropriately in the following two charts, that reveal the false storyline being peddled to the techno-narcissistic iGadget distracted masses. To understand the absolute idiocy of retail CEOs across the land one must parse the employment data back to 2000. Of course, even though median household income is 7.5% lower than it was in 2000, the government expects you to believe that 22 million Americans voluntarily left the labor force because they no longer needed a job. This entire materialistic orgy of consumerism has been sustained solely with debt peddled by the Wall Street banking syndicate. Bernanke and his financial elite owners have been able to rig the markets to give the appearance of normalcy, but they cannot rig the demographic time bomb that will cause the death and destruction of our illusory retail paradigm. With over 15% of all 25 to 34 year olds living in their parents’ basement and those under 25 saddled with billions in student loan debt, the traditional increase in income and spending is DOA for the millennial generation. The media continues to peddle the storyline of on-line sales saving the ancient bricks and mortar retailers. The decades of mal-investment in retail stores was enabled by Greenspan, Bernanke, and their Federal Reserve brethren. The implications of this long and winding road to ruin are far reaching. Store closings so far have only been a ripple compared to the tsunami coming to right size the industry for a future of declining spending. Over the next five to ten years, tens of thousands of stores will be shuttered. Companies like JC Penney, Sears and Radio Shack will go bankrupt and become historical footnotes. Considering retail employment is lower today than it was in 2002 before the massive retail expansion, the future will see in excess of 1 million retail workers lose their jobs. Bernanke and the Feds have allowed real estate mall owners to roll over non-performing loans and pretend they are generating enough rental income to cover their loan obligations. As more stores go dark, this little game of extend and pretend will come to an end. Real estate developers will be going belly-up and the banking sector will be taking huge losses again. I’m sure the remaining taxpayers will gladly bailout Wall Street again. The facts are not debatable. They can be ignored by the politicians, Ivy League economists, media talking heads, and the willfully ignorant masses, but they do not cease to exist.
“Facts do not cease to exist because they are ignored.” – Aldous Huxley
To read the entire article (not just the paraphrased headlines as shown here), go to: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-0...l-death-rattle
You win, you lose. All else is history. The future does not exist.
  • #31,847
  • Jan 21, 2014 2:41am Jan 21, 2014 2:41am
fck, ppl don't make things so comlicated...
Gold Annihilation System
  • #31,848
  • Jan 21, 2014 2:42am Jan 21, 2014 2:42am
Quoting Scalptastic
Gold locked on 1255-1260 to 1220 range. We have room to rise to test 1260 {image}

Test of 1262 is now done. If it pushes lower than 1240 then I will add to my short position.
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  • #31,849
  • Jan 21, 2014 2:57am Jan 21, 2014 2:57am
Quoting Scalptastic
{quote} Test of 1262 is now done. If it pushes lower than 1240 then I will add to my short position. {image}
1240 is the 1st target for today

H1 is showing a volume reverse pattern - recently we had a buyer from 1252 - now there is a good seller from 1252 - taking shorts till US session on thursday
Gold Annihilation System
  • #31,850
  • Jan 21, 2014 2:59am Jan 21, 2014 2:59am
1249 not broken yet
  • #31,851
  • Jan 21, 2014 3:14am Jan 21, 2014 3:14am
Quoting m0b
1249 not broken yet
it means nothing there were no strong bulls - we have a room to go south besides the price is below 200 SMA
Gold Annihilation System
  • #31,852
  • Jan 21, 2014 3:26am Jan 21, 2014 3:26am
Quoting m0b
1249 not broken yet
I will tell you about the reverse, listen sometimes
Gold Annihilation System
  • #31,853
  • Jan 21, 2014 3:28am Jan 21, 2014 3:28am
Quoting Hunterrus
{quote} 1240 is the 1st target for today H1 is showing a volume reverse pattern - recently we had a buyer from 1252 - now there is a good seller from 1252 - taking shorts till US session on thursday
Have to say I cant agree more
  • #31,854
  • Jan 21, 2014 3:32am Jan 21, 2014 3:32am
Quoting okanemici
{quote} Have to say I cant agree more
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...96#post7222596
-milkeyway
  • #31,855
  • Jan 21, 2014 6:21am Jan 21, 2014 6:21am
Quoting kumaramy
{quote} http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...96#post7222596
I am still bullish on gold and would reload at around 1238
  • #31,856
  • Jan 21, 2014 6:36am Jan 21, 2014 6:36am
check daily for wanting to long today

Quoting Bones
ok forget the tl ,weekly is questionable for taking pivot imo ,see how daily closes {quote}
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #31,857
  • Jan 21, 2014 6:43am Jan 21, 2014 6:43am
Quoting Greener
{quote} I am still bullish on gold and would reload at around 1238
Yeah - waiting to see reaction at 1240 - that's only if she makes it there... - but there is a nice lil dip here today - USDX is up.

All or most base metals and PMs are down before NY, but it looks like some shorts may be getting closed.

30 day looks good so far for further moves north, yet on the 60 day definitely keeping eyes on 1260 area as resistance to beat.

Oh, as far as economic calender for US it's dead today. Literally.
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XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #31,858
  • Jan 21, 2014 6:54am Jan 21, 2014 6:54am
Looks like a channel in play. However, doubtful of the lower channel line. Nevertheless, 1252 serve as an important previous support turn resistance (if you look at the daily chart).


http://i1116.photobucket.com/albums/...ps492aaf22.jpg
The true fact is market doesn't care, risk mgt is important.
  • #31,859
  • Jan 21, 2014 6:57am Jan 21, 2014 6:57am
seems to be respected ,anyhow ,guess the steepness is how bearish gold is
btw not a double bottom yet

Quoting XTrade
{quote} Why is the line conveniently drawn AFTER the Range of 1550 to 1800 and excluding the HIGH of 1920 or even 1900? I guess that's all just "water under the bridge right?" Well. no worries here mate! Any one using TA on a weekly knows even with NO DIRECTION that DTL WILL NOT LAST it is too steep and at this point been INVALIDATED by 3 OTHER BROKEN = ranged out and Break out DTLS on the daily. But - for some reason, bears cannot except the fact of switching sides or actually taking a "long" Look at a 10 year - it might help. G/L XT-
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On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #31,860
  • Jan 21, 2014 7:21am Jan 21, 2014 7:21am
Im still holding my shorts, thinking it might reach 1225 or even lower. set SL to 1245.
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