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Bitcoin technical analysis

  • #1,561
  • Jan 17, 2014 10:57am Jan 17, 2014 10:57am
EWI are now accepting Bitcoin payment for their forecasting services
http://www.wmbb.com/story/24481753/e...accept-bitcoin

This is so funny because if EWI's forecasting was any good they'd have put their money where their mouth is and accepted Bitcoin a long time ago but noooo, they were also on the "Tulip mania" bandwagon. So instead of counting the waves and seeing the increasing degrees and rising waves, they apparently waited for the mainstream to OK Bitcoin and now they're "first"? Go figure!
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #1,562
  • Jan 17, 2014 11:11am Jan 17, 2014 11:11am
....good discussion here good discussion........I think this thing want's to go some more down......
The Chonchy
  • #1,563
  • Jan 17, 2014 11:13am Jan 17, 2014 11:13am
.......where?........ chocolate ema 30 and bounce.......yes I'm long all in, too many people into this thing I don't want to miss the bus....or train, or boat.......it may even spike to 716.......last resistance on the way up.....now support.......good luck to all....

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The Chonchy
  • #1,564
  • Edited Jan 18, 2014 6:01am Jan 17, 2014 11:26am | Edited Jan 18, 2014 6:01am
.......Like KO said this thing love fibo's if is forgotten something down there it may go to the next fibo, wish is lower than 61.8.......notice how it hit 23.6, 38.2, 50 and 61.8 on the way down, I hope it didn't forgot some other fibo, lol.......nahhhhhh I think choco ema 30 and up again.....I hope anyways, lol....or else...it may just turn up here, is a lot of support points here in this level

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the choco and up prediction came out well.......

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The Chonchy
  • #1,565
  • Jan 17, 2014 12:07pm Jan 17, 2014 12:07pm
Quoting chonchy
.......Like KO said this thing love fibo's if is forgotten something down there it may go to the next fibo, wish is lower than 61.8.......notice how it hit 23.6, 38.2, 50 and 61.8 on the way down, I hope it didn't forgot some other fibo, lol.......nahhhhhh I think choco ema 30 and up again.....I hope anyways, lol....or else...it may just turn up here, is a lot of support points here in this level {image}

PA is not clear and I can't find a good reason from my indicators to open a hedge here. So it must just play out

goodnight people.
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #1,566
  • Jan 17, 2014 5:54pm Jan 17, 2014 5:54pm
I usually find the 4h RSI the most significant on longer TF but even looking at all of them above 6h, 12h, daily, weekly, they all are at the lowest, I don't see how the PA would be going any lower from here...

EDIT : it feels a bit strange to see 1000btc on the orderbook of btc-e and stamp, gonna take some getting use to, gox not being anymore what it was ..
  • #1,567
  • Jan 17, 2014 8:17pm Jan 17, 2014 8:17pm
Weekend trading. Btc proving to be good weekend trading.
While the cats away the mice will play.
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Money Makes Money
  • #1,568
  • Jan 18, 2014 12:47am Jan 18, 2014 12:47am
Talk about head buttin' the head board. Mr Bitcoin's gonna go bald at this rate...

The made me do it..
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Money Makes Money
  • #1,569
  • Jan 18, 2014 6:02am Jan 18, 2014 6:02am
Quoting chonchy
.......Like KO said this thing love fibo's if is forgotten something down there it may go to the next fibo, wish is lower than 61.8.......notice how it hit 23.6, 38.2, 50 and 61.8 on the way down, I hope it didn't forgot some other fibo, lol.......nahhhhhh I think choco ema 30 and up again.....I hope anyways, lol....or else...it may just turn up here, is a lot of support points here in this level {image} the choco and up prediction came out well....... {image}
this prediction came well...
The Chonchy
  • #1,570
  • Jan 18, 2014 6:09am Jan 18, 2014 6:09am
Good morning and good spotting Chonchy and Kiwioz,

I had a question, Kiwioz I'm not sure which chart you are using atm, I assume it's the same as stamp, did the head butt went thru the black line ?
  • #1,571
  • Jan 18, 2014 6:29am Jan 18, 2014 6:29am
http://www.coindesk.com/ebay-uk-virt...ency-february/
Quote
“To promote a trustworthy marketplace and ensure compliance with applicable regulations, eBay is currently updating its Currency Policy. The updated policy will clarify that listings for Bitcoin and other similar virtual currencies must be listed in the Virtual Currency Category in the Classified Ad format.The Virtual Currency category is expected to be available on the UK site on February 10th.”

This is great ! So their twin devil bother (paypal) won't chargeback anymore ? More than them accepting BTC as a mean of payment (still a step toward that) being able to sell BTC on ebay is a big move ! Especially when BTC sell on ebay are 20% higher than market ! Also great for Btc-e, finally a withdrawal that won't run out of liquidity.
Nice and useful news right here

And ,
http://www.coindesk.com/chinese-cent...press-bitcoin/
Quote
A representative from the People’s Bank of China claimed in a press conference yesterday his institution is not trying to prevent bitcoin use, just clarify its status

Make up your mind PBOC !
  • #1,572
  • Jan 18, 2014 7:05am Jan 18, 2014 7:05am
Quoting lady_luck
Good morning and good spotting Chonchy and Kiwioz, I had a question, Kiwioz I'm not sure which chart you are using atm, I assume it's the same as stamp, did the head butt went thru the black line ?
Good Morning lady_luck.......thanks.....lucky shot...
The Chonchy
  • #1,573
  • Edited 7:19am Jan 18, 2014 7:06am | Edited 7:19am
Quoting lady_luck
http://www.coindesk.com/ebay-uk-virt...ency-february/ {quote} This is great ! So their twin devil bother (paypal) won't chargeback anymore ? More than them accepting BTC as a mean of payment (still a step toward that) being able to sell BTC on ebay is a big move ! Especially when BTC sell on ebay are 20% higher than market ! Also great for Btc-e, finally a withdrawal that won't run out of liquidity. Nice and useful news right here And , http://www.coindesk.com/chinese-cent...press-bitcoin/...
good news, yes, that is good news, lady_luck, thanks.....

my tulips are growing......

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The Chonchy
  • #1,574
  • Edited 7:51am Jan 18, 2014 7:31am | Edited 7:51am
Just some projection into the future...

I wonder the impact on price action,
If/when BTC start to switch hands for a reason other than speculation on profit ;

Will we still have those crazy swings?
I mean, more people waiting to buy at higher low, more people willing to cash out at market price (because they bought/sell some physical goods), fear of higher high (or of the forthcoming corrections), do you think that a mainstream BTC could be a less interesting trading instrument, pushing traders to chase 10-20pips here and there ?

My question is, if/when BTC become a properly use currency/payment gateway, will it starts to behave as one ?

If so, do you think exchange switching to mbtc would bring back the volatility ?
  • #1,575
  • Jan 18, 2014 10:24am Jan 18, 2014 10:24am
Hi All,

lady_luck: nice avatar!

chonchy: nice tulips, they grew quickly!

I see you posted some links LL and I'll check them in a moment. Also, your ideas about a future BTC with less volatility... hmm, i have some ideas and will post them shortly, but first watching this PA with my finger on the "Close Hedge" button!
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #1,576
  • Jan 18, 2014 10:27am Jan 18, 2014 10:27am
Quoting venzen
Hi All, lady_luck: nice avatar! chonchy: nice tulips, they grew quickly! I see you posted some links LL and I'll check them in a moment. Also, your ideas about a future BTC with less volatility... hmm, i have some ideas and will post them shortly, but first watching this PA with my finger on the "Close Hedge" button!

Hello,
Thanks
Yeah, If we are having again 3 waves up, we would be looking at 870 (btc-e) ?
  • #1,577
  • Jan 18, 2014 11:20am Jan 18, 2014 11:20am
Quoting lady_luck
{quote} Hello, Thanks Yeah, If we are having again 3 waves up, we would be looking at 870 (btc-e) ?

870 seems about right - plenty of longterm Fibs from 850 to 890...

PA is really tight - small waves fighting for tiny pip distances.
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #1,578
  • Jan 18, 2014 11:39am Jan 18, 2014 11:39am
Quoting lady_luck
Just some projection into the future... I wonder the impact on price action, If/when BTC start to switch hands for a reason other than speculation on profit ; Will we still have those crazy swings? I mean, more people waiting to buy at higher low, more people willing to cash out at market price (because they bought/sell some physical goods), fear of higher high (or of the forthcoming corrections), do you think that a mainstream BTC could be a less interesting trading instrument, pushing traders to chase 10-20pips here and there ? My question is,...

I was also wondering about this. For example, if the FBeye auction off those 29k coins then presumably there will be no effect on price since the coins don't go through any exchange - unless the buyer goes to Bitstamp or MtGox and cashes out BTC for USD which will force a massive drop in price. In this case there will probably be a secret agreement with the exchange to slowly release small lots of sell orders over a few days/weeks/months. But I don't see this happening - I think whoever buys a large amount of coins from auction will have a longer term strategy and won't sell the majority of the coins.

In terms of day-to-day BTC retail (online store) transactions - most of those will probably go through the exchange because the retailer wants to get their USD in the bank as soon as possible and not risk volatile swings against their sell price. So, as you say, the effect will probably be a smoothing out of price as more coins get bought and sold. Speculation will have less effect on price since people will have lower expectations of regulatory news leading to large sell-offs and on the other hand there will be less expectation of massive upside since Bitcoin will be in circulation and slowly rising in price anyway. That's my simplistic idea about it.

And thinking along those lines... doesn't that mean all of the good news is priced into BTCUSD? I mean, what else can be said in the media to boost the price? Everything is looking 100% good. Everyone likes Bitcoin and all the retailers are on their way to accepting it and many important govt authorities are relaxing their tone about it (and even relaxing taxation), so... is this it? Surely, BTC must head up in some kind of moon rocket as it's adoption becomes reality and it's value in the market increases out of sheer demand and brilliant usefulness?
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #1,579
  • Jan 18, 2014 11:58am Jan 18, 2014 11:58am
I've relabeled the triangle - not sure if this is how it's going to turn out but it's a rough roadmap.

That upper green TL will definitely change but for now it's a lie of resistance.

H1 BTC-e

http://ubuntuone.com/500uc9L8Ca56uCZUSJAqsI
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #1,580
  • Jan 18, 2014 12:23pm Jan 18, 2014 12:23pm
Yes, It make sens, if one or a group buy the FBI coins, they won't sell them immediately.

Well about the moonrocket and the good news, I can see it. But those news are mostly new options to spend/use BTC, and a certitude of a future where BTC will never equal zero.
The market hasn't and might not react to them. Because people trading BTC now and reading those news now are already into BTC and probably won't/can't get more into it. May be a slow impact on the price when, gradually newcomers arrives and get attracted by those new good thing.

You mentioned a 6month cycle between BTC bull runs, I agree.
It took me about 6month from the first I heard about BTC to keep on reading before I decided to get involve and start trading it.
So may be an other 6month, may be less, before those reading the today good news decide it is worth it. Or for people already into BTC to get use to all those new possibilities now happening and so to buy more of it.
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