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Bitcoin technical analysis

  • #1,481
  • Jan 14, 2014 11:10pm Jan 14, 2014 11:10pm
morning people,

when overlaying the XAUUSD chart on BTCUSD, it is apparent that, in most cases, when BTCUSD makes a strong decline, XAUUSD also declines but continues declining after BTCUSD has turned up. This pattern is verifiable and may be a profitable short signal for XAUUSD... what do you think?

edit: The opposite may also be worth verifying: When Gold declines strongly BTC tends to advance?

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cryptocurrency everytime
  • #1,482
  • Jan 15, 2014 1:50am Jan 15, 2014 1:50am
Quoting KiwiOz
{quote} Great call chonchy. Thanks for the heads up. I might not have got in so early otherwise......

..........30M was up, all ema's over red ema to the north, then 15M cross so I went long one lot, then 5M cross and I added 5 lots and when they were all in sync it took off, the 5M cross down first and then up that is when I added, it did a funny fake down first though, I don't know why but maybe to get steam, who knows.......is a typical tree chart sync on the smaller timeframes, to get more pips I look for higher time frames, like 30M, one hour and 4H.......

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The Chonchy
  • #1,483
  • Jan 15, 2014 1:52am Jan 15, 2014 1:52am
......30M, one hour and 4H are out of sync so it may go down a bit to regain sync on the larger time frames, but is going to take some time me think, unless some itchy fingers with a lot of BTC creates a rally.......
The Chonchy
  • #1,484
  • Jan 15, 2014 1:53am Jan 15, 2014 1:53am
.......there is a lot of resistance here at this level but again some powerful buyer can cause a rally to the upper trend line of the triangle
The Chonchy
  • #1,485
  • Jan 15, 2014 1:54am Jan 15, 2014 1:54am
Quoting venzen
morning people, when overlaying the XAUUSD chart on BTCUSD, it is apparent that, in most cases, when BTCUSD makes a strong decline, XAUUSD also declines but continues declining after BTCUSD has turned up. This pattern is verifiable and may be a profitable short signal for XAUUSD... what do you think? edit: The opposite may also be worth verifying: When Gold declines strongly BTC tends to advance? {image}
interesting observation venzen, thanks.....
The Chonchy
  • #1,486
  • Jan 15, 2014 4:30am Jan 15, 2014 4:30am
Thanks for keeping us posted chonchy!

@smartypants, I need some technical advice (code compilation) - if you see this please PM me
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #1,487
  • Jan 15, 2014 7:10am Jan 15, 2014 7:10am
Quoting venzen
morning people, when overlaying the XAUUSD chart on BTCUSD, it is apparent that, in most cases, when BTCUSD makes a strong decline, XAUUSD also declines but continues declining after BTCUSD has turned up. This pattern is verifiable and may be a profitable short signal for XAUUSD... what do you think? edit: The opposite may also be worth verifying: When Gold declines strongly BTC tends to advance? {image}
So that negative reciprocity could mean that we are starting to have a few relatively big trader playing alternatively XAU and BTC ?


EDIT : Actually it's funny I could make the same comment about LTC toward BTC, and then about other alt coin toward LTC. Seems like an interesting psychological thing.

EDIT 2 : finally sold my BTC, interesting thing is within their financial angency this guy doesn't trade at all, and he reckon he does as well as the trader with only doing hand to hand buy and sell and a 5% spread on both side.
  • #1,488
  • Jan 15, 2014 7:35am Jan 15, 2014 7:35am
Quoting lady_luck
{quote} So that negative reciprocity could mean that we are starting to have a few relatively big trader playing alternatively XAU and BTC ? EDIT : Actually it's funny I could make the same comment about LTC toward BTC, and then about other alt coin toward LTC. Seems like an interesting psychological thing. EDIT 2 : finally sold my BTC, interesting thing is within their financial angency this guy doesn't trade at all, and he reckon he does as well as the trader with only doing hand to hand buy and sell and a 5% spread on both side.
hehehe, that's like dcramer saying the other day that as soon as he tries to trade he starts losing money, if he just holds everything goes well!

Happy you sold your coins - I will also cash out some coins soon so localbitcoins.com will be my best option (no banks, thank you, Your Honour, I don't like the banks... ).

I'll keep monitoring the way Gold continues going down after a Bitcoin decline - to see if that repeats with enough consistency to trade...

Not sure what's going on with price the last few hours - but i'm not going to act on it unless it goes below 800... it seems to be forming a base for the next wave up. I reckon it's best to just let it move around a bit without trying to predict direction and targets
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #1,489
  • Jan 15, 2014 7:37am Jan 15, 2014 7:37am
Quoting lady_luck
{quote} So that negative reciprocity could mean that we are starting to have a few relatively big trader playing alternatively XAU and BTC ? EDIT : Actually it's funny I could make the same comment about LTC toward BTC, and then about other alt coin toward LTC. Seems like an interesting psychological thing. EDIT 2 : finally sold my BTC, interesting thing is within their financial angency this guy doesn't trade at all, and he reckon he does as well as the trader with only doing hand to hand buy and sell and a 5% spread on both side.
5% both ways..Sounds like he's onto a good thing.
Money Makes Money
  • #1,490
  • Jan 15, 2014 7:41am Jan 15, 2014 7:41am
Gold has been in a downtrend for some time so it's declines maybe last longer...

Quoting lady_luck
{quote} So that negative reciprocity could mean that we are starting to have a few relatively big trader playing alternatively XAU and BTC ?

What surprises me is the fact that they go down at the same time but Gold continues much further after Bitcoin has already turned up. I'm not sure if that would be traders deliberately jumping from BTC to Gold or if it's an effect of market psychology... it's the fact that both BTC and XAU start their declines at the same time - there is some sort of subconscious synchronicity or something. Who knows? Magic maybe?
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #1,491
  • Jan 15, 2014 7:45am Jan 15, 2014 7:45am
Quoting KiwiOz
{quote} 5% both ways..Sounds like he's onto a good thing.
Yes, and because it's argentina and it's not allowed to change ARS to USD inside the country, and because of hyperinflation, most BTC sell he does are in USD, where he takes an extra 10%.

Venzen, yes I agree, I'm not going to act on anything unless the TL is broken so clearly that it would go double tap at 450. I only trade on swing that could be larger than 20% up or down for the same reason, (but I like to trade smaller spread in my head it's good (or not, the last 2month) for my confidence...). I found, the best RR ratio land there and above. So yeah, keeping a close eye on it, but I'm also letting BTC be at the moment
  • #1,492
  • Jan 15, 2014 7:48am Jan 15, 2014 7:48am
Oh, BTW, I was commisisoned today to write research articles for a cryptocurrency news site. They'll pay me in BTC. I'll post links to my articles here when they hit the screens!

"Research Article"... that sounds very academic but i think it's just plain vanilla web journalism - yuk - does that mean someone can refer to me as a vampire Wormtongue?
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #1,493
  • Jan 15, 2014 8:03am Jan 15, 2014 8:03am
Quoting venzen
does that mean someone can refer to me as a vampire Wormtongue?
It depends strongly on how many BTC you getting out of it

What's their angle ?
  • #1,494
  • Jan 15, 2014 8:09am Jan 15, 2014 8:09am
Quoting lady_luck
{quote} Yes, and because it's argentina and it's not allowed to change ARS to USD inside the country, and because of hyperinflation, most BTC sell he does are in USD, where he takes an extra 10%. Venzen, yes I agree, I'm not going to act on anything unless the TL is broken so clearly that it would go double tap at 450. I only trade on swing that could be larger than 20% up or down for the same reason, (but I like to trade smaller spread in my head it's good (or not, the last 2month) for my confidence...). I found, the best RR ratio land there and...
funny business in the price action - the indicators are all pointing down, but the downside potential seems limited.

edit: the faint bars are Gold's PA

http://ubuntuone.com/23EiUzS8m87JcMdQGUQELX
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #1,495
  • Jan 15, 2014 8:16am Jan 15, 2014 8:16am
Yeah I was just looking at the similar thing, have you seen those two things from B.B.?

A pretty good chart : https://www.tradingview.com/v/AYrOSKcn/
And something else that might interest you : https://www.tradingview.com/v/h5rCp9v1/

EDIT : Venzen, you've done some pretty good coding, I like all your signal they are really accurate !
May be the downside seems limited because as chonchy and you said before, they need to go down to get in line before any significant move up ?
  • #1,496
  • Jan 15, 2014 8:28am Jan 15, 2014 8:28am
Quoting lady_luck
{quote} It depends strongly on how many BTC you getting out of it What's their angle ?

I agreed to a fair rate (sorry can't say how much exactly, because of confidentiality) - their angle is new Bitcoin user (and miner) orientation and then some more indepth pieces about topical issues - blockchain integrity, regulation and its implications, etc. As soon as I post a link (probably a week from now) all will be clear - I'm just being secretive until those Bitcoins hit my wallet for the first time!
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #1,497
  • Jan 15, 2014 8:33am Jan 15, 2014 8:33am
Quoting lady_luck
Yeah I was just looking at the similar thing, have you seen those two things from B.B.? A pretty good chart : https://www.tradingview.com/v/AYrOSKcn/ And something else that might interest you : https://www.tradingview.com/v/h5rCp9v1/ EDIT : Venzen, you've done some pretty good coding, I like all your signal they are really accurate ! May be the downside seems limited because as chonchy and you said before, they need to go down to get in line before any significant move up ?

Thanks for saying about the coding - it's really simple - just some strong visual signals for divergence and (in RSI) "reverse divergence" (new indicator LL not confirmed by a price LL (and vice versa for HH)).

This is definitely base building IMO - I am treating it as that but if price should drop significantly i won't change my strategy - now it's a waiting game for going over 1000...

let me look at those links you posted!
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #1,498
  • Jan 15, 2014 8:57am Jan 15, 2014 8:57am
Quoting lady_luck
Yeah I was just looking at the similar thing, have you seen those two things from B.B.? A pretty good chart : https://www.tradingview.com/v/AYrOSKcn/ And something else that might interest you : https://www.tradingview.com/v/h5rCp9v1/ EDIT : Venzen, you've done some pretty good coding, I like all your signal they are really accurate ! May be the downside seems limited because as chonchy and you said before, they need to go down to get in line before any significant move up ?

Yep, she anticipated that move up well! Opening the first link, I clicked on "Load more bars" and PA went up right where BB said it would!

The algo webinar looks interesting and I'm going to explore that tomorrow morning over coffee.

Right now there seems to be a tight ending to the triangle forming. I put the end of wave 'e' down near 800 in case of an overshoot surprise, but first I would like to see PA reverse down from about 850. If this triangle is indeed what is unfolding then the wave down to 'e' should be a gradual descent and curved downward like wave 'c' - only less steep.

H1

http://ubuntuone.com/0cnTFi2YeKrlAbWPTXqGEF
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #1,499
  • Jan 15, 2014 9:23am Jan 15, 2014 9:23am
It's easy to say: "Oh well, I'm so relaxed, I'm just going to let PA do it's thing..." Meanwhile, I'm watching it like a hawk and my mind is going tick-tock-tick-tock at a high rate!

Here's another M15 chart (Gold PA faint in the background). I tried an indicator called "Know Sure Thing" (KST) just to explore it and it's giving good divergence signals.

http://ubuntuone.com/6xriq4OSd9baNDu4xxaY9D
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #1,500
  • Jan 15, 2014 9:29am Jan 15, 2014 9:29am
That's interesting, i'm gonna look into this KST. Seems pretty good at calling top and bottom. So everything seems to confirm the "d" and "e",
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