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XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

  • #31,541
  • Jan 12, 2014 6:31pm Jan 12, 2014 6:31pm
if anyone disagrees with my above posted trade, pls post ur comments and reason - am here to (hopefully) improve my analysis based on feedback from more experienced gold traders. my current trade is a counter trend retracement...
  • #31,542
  • Jan 12, 2014 6:48pm Jan 12, 2014 6:48pm
Quoting msood
if anyone disagrees with my above posted trade, pls post ur comments and reason - am here to (hopefully) improve my analysis based on feedback from more experienced gold traders. my current trade is a counter trend retracement...
And a good one too I think. The daily Pivot is at 1241 & a retrace to 1238 is probable.......
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Money Makes Money
  • #31,543
  • Jan 12, 2014 7:02pm Jan 12, 2014 7:02pm
Quoting KiwiOz
{quote} And a good one too I think. The daily Pivot is at 1241 & a retrace to 1238 is probable.......
ta
  • #31,544
  • Jan 12, 2014 7:06pm Jan 12, 2014 7:06pm
nice breakout, hope they do it to 1268 in asian
  • #31,545
  • Jan 12, 2014 7:17pm Jan 12, 2014 7:17pm
Quoting okanemici
{quote} Hi XTrade, This is how I expect it to play.My targets are 1252 and 1258.It would stop and reverse at 1258 or shoot to 1275 max to the next fibo extension. {image}
Here is my 1252, now lets see the 1258 and 1275 baby
  • #31,546
  • Jan 12, 2014 7:29pm Jan 12, 2014 7:29pm
that was a typ stop hunting spike by the the lowest of the scum confirmation of the retrace i think...missed my stop by a mere 43 cents, so note to myself: add another 50 cents to my usual stop levels to be on the safe side. the vermin are getting bolder and bolder...
  • #31,547
  • Jan 12, 2014 7:32pm Jan 12, 2014 7:32pm
Quoting Ulterior
nice breakout, hope they do it to 1268 in asian
how about your charts and analysis, or is this YOUR trade journal?
  • #31,548
  • Jan 12, 2014 7:36pm Jan 12, 2014 7:36pm
Quoting msood
{quote} how about your charts and analysis, or is this YOUR trade journal?
nothing changed from my analysis if you TOOK TIME TO SCROLL forum before appearing like an idiot posting this reply
  • #31,549
  • Jan 12, 2014 7:57pm Jan 12, 2014 7:57pm
My short SL triggered @ 1252. Now turn long @ 1250, TP 1263.5
  • #31,550
  • Jan 12, 2014 8:02pm Jan 12, 2014 8:02pm
Quoting XTrade
{quote} LL- Unless they make an announcement about a "more aggressive" taper, it shouldn't make much of a difference anymore, it was the initial announcement, that would have "rocked the gold market" yet the FED doesn't want that - no one does, so they talk sh!t, for about a year, market's price in - announment comes, nothing really happens.
Hi XTrade,

I think the same as yours, but I think the tappering could continue in Jan. But anyway, it should not impact the price a lot.

My trade was betting on the overbought last friday, but it is shown to be wrong. The NPF is so bad and it looks no stop until 1265. So after take 4 USD loss, now I turn long, Target 1263.5.
  • #31,551
  • Jan 12, 2014 8:04pm Jan 12, 2014 8:04pm
Quoting msood
that was a typ stop hunting spike by the the lowest of the scum confirmation of the retrace i think...missed my stop by a mere 43 cents, so note to myself: add another 50 cents to my usual stop levels to be on the safe side. the vermin are getting bolder and bolder...
You are wrong, it was a push to break up the daily 50 and reach the target fibo ! If 1250 doesnt hold there may be a retrace to 1240-45 but that's it for now.Early to short this.
  • #31,552
  • Jan 12, 2014 8:05pm Jan 12, 2014 8:05pm
does anyone know: when we talk of the 'stop hunters', who are 'they'? surely not central banks, woudn't be worth their while, or the brokers cause would be out of their league to effect a $5 spike without any news etc...leaves the institutionals (citi, goldman etc.)?
  • #31,553
  • Jan 12, 2014 8:07pm Jan 12, 2014 8:07pm
Quoting okanemici
{quote} You are wrong, it was a push to break up the daily 50 and reach the target fibo ! If 1250 doesnt hold there may be a retrace to 1240-45 but that's it for now.Early to short this.
ok. but why? i mean why the 'push', and by who/ whom?
  • #31,554
  • Jan 12, 2014 8:10pm Jan 12, 2014 8:10pm
Quoting msood
does anyone know: when we talk of the 'stop hunters', who are 'they'? surely not central banks, woudn't be worth their while, or the brokers cause would be out of their league to effect a $5 spike without any news etc...leaves the institutionals (citi, goldman etc.)?
Hedge funds mainly. Banks especially American banks are no longer allowed to do prop trading, so they are always your counter party, which means if a lot traders want to short, they are long and losing money (if they can not hedge their books or hedge it with too much cost). But always take client's trades is the basic rule of a market maker.

I have lots friends working in banks (sell side) like GS UBS SG. I am working for a buyside fund, and I know in most case only buyside hunts other buyside (which can be retail traders).
  • #31,555
  • Jan 12, 2014 8:11pm Jan 12, 2014 8:11pm
even greater divergence now...
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  • #31,556
  • Jan 12, 2014 8:15pm Jan 12, 2014 8:15pm
Quoting LarryLU
{quote} Hedge funds mainly. Banks especially American banks are no longer allowed to do prop trading, so they are always your counter party, which means if a lot traders want to short, they are long and losing money (if they can not hedge their books or hedge it with too much cost). But always take client's trades is the basic rule of a market maker. I have lots friends working in banks (sell side) like GS UBS SG. I am working for a buyside fund, and I know in most case only buyside hunts other buyside (which can be retail traders).
your comment "technically only buyside hunts other buyside (which can be retail traders)" kind of makes sense, but i cant entirely understand it. can u pl elaborate? thx...
  • #31,557
  • Jan 12, 2014 8:25pm Jan 12, 2014 8:25pm
Quoting msood
{quote} ok. but why? i mean why the 'push', and by who/ whom?
There are targets to be reached so when the target is close they might make a push to reach it during dead market hours and reverse the price during the following session to the lower fibo levels or supports.Then the next session they might add new longs and head for the next resistance levels.
Sometimes they even gap up or down prices for those moves to be less costly
  • #31,558
  • Jan 12, 2014 8:34pm Jan 12, 2014 8:34pm
Quoting okanemici
{quote} There are targets to be reached so when the target is close they might make a push to reach it during dead market hours and reverse the price during the following session to the lower fibo levels or supports.Then the next session they might add new longs and head for the next resistance levels. Sometimes they even gap up or down prices for those moves to be less costly
makes sense - though any genuine and smart buyer would wait for the price to retrace as it obviously shall given the 1250 even mark plus daily levels reached and overbought conditions and divergences etc etc, so the "push" to complete some vague cycles has to arise out of ability to 'fix' or be able to manipulate prices. so these folks who are sending all these ticks to our computer screens are the culprits, i.e. the major institutional banks have a monopoly on the price and can take it anywhere they like (within limits)?
  • #31,559
  • Edited 8:58pm Jan 12, 2014 8:38pm | Edited 8:58pm
Quoting msood
{quote} your comment "technically only buyside hunts other buyside (which can be retail traders)" kind of makes sense, but i cant entirely understand it. can u pl elaborate? thx...
Give you a simple example, when you (buyside big trader) place a trade, you call bank and they become your counterparty. At this time, they take position which means risk to them. However, the law and the nature of market making does not allow them to take position, they make money from transaction fees (tickets, each trade cost a ticket) and spread. So they try to hedge their position, with some trades from other buyside traders or other banks. Their book is checked everyday, make sure those traders dont leave some huge position unhedged.

Hope you can understand well now
  • #31,560
  • Jan 12, 2014 8:41pm Jan 12, 2014 8:41pm
Quoting LarryLU
{quote} Give you a simple example, when you (buyside big trader) place a trade, you call bank and they become your counterparty. At this time, they take position which means risk to them. However, the law and the nature of market making does not allow them to take position, they make money from transaction fees. So they try to hedge their position, with some trades from other buyside traders or other banks. Their book is checked everyday, make sure those traders dont leave some huge position unhedged. Hope you can understand well now
well explained, thx larylu
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