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XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

  • #31,481
  • Jan 9, 2014 11:49pm Jan 9, 2014 11:49pm
Quoting razaali
{quote} can u give ur view on this way down ???????????????????????? downward is alot of supports first , 1180 have to clear which is not clear in many tryies 2nd , is 1150 area which is the strong one n maximum is 1075 , if it come
I posted a chart yesterday. As an individual I work primarily on Price Action as that is what I understand well. For the direction & the logic I'm relying on someone's expert signals & inputs.

Quoting Ulterior
{quote} outrages predictions in 11th post here mate!
Pardon my knowledge, but whose predictions am I outraging? Certainly new here, but got access to nice feed of signals.
  • #31,482
  • Jan 9, 2014 11:55pm Jan 9, 2014 11:55pm
I just reviewed Aussie, Kiwi and the cross AUD/NZD.

It does seem that just on techs NZD could stand to weaken a bit as it has been basically in range after the last awesome blast north on NZD/USD.

AUD/USD has been getting BEAT up it had the massive slide earlier in the year then a nice 700 or so pip rise up, which all fell apart slightly over 100pct retracement.
Also on A/U I'm looking at this recent double tap to potentially form stronger support around 8850+

So lastly NZD has been dominating the cross, could be time for a bit of retracement and Aussie strength. I put a line down around 1.0700 where again we see a potential support- but the DTL is still in place and she needs to rise over 100 pips above 1.0900 area to really confirm further reversal - then the next more major hurdle will be 1.1200 - at least at this price the risk is fairly small on both long opportunities A/U and A/Z because if supports fail we will know quickly, yet upside potential is enormous, should they hold and there is a flip.

I think I made some fairly naked quick charts for all three just to get a clean outlook. attached below with some hand drawn support/resistance levels and fibos.
Taking a peek at the 200 DMA might help too for some simple longer term targets.

I always try to look for clues on the overnight rates of both of these countries when trading the cross or the pairs. They are the highest in FX and part of Aussies last large slide (prior to the 700 pip move) If I remember correctly was due to a decrease in the rate which made it even with that of NZland.

Quoting Ulterior
{quote} I am trying to play the breakout of this setup: {image}
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XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #31,483
  • Jan 9, 2014 11:56pm Jan 9, 2014 11:56pm
Quoting XTrade
{quote} Why waste the hedge? If you want dollar exposure buy swissy or loonie. Otherwise IMO if you think there will be a retest on 1250 perhaps you might take profit on any small upcoming dip, then ride long to 1250 and flip short there. Just an alternative plan. Plus if the NFP sucks you are already exposed long and can ride a nice breakout. If it is good then the short should be fairly simple to achieve early in the day from whatever price she stalls at before news.
thx for the advice xt - already stopped out though...
  • #31,484
  • Jan 10, 2014 12:12am Jan 10, 2014 12:12am
Quoting XTrade
I just reviewed Aussie, Kiwi and the cross AUD/NZD. It does seem that just on techs NZD could stand to weaken a bit as it has been basically in range after the last awesome blast north on NZD/USD. AUD/USD has been getting BEAT up it had the massive slide earlier in the year then a nice 700 or so pip rise up, which all fell apart slightly over 100pct retracement. Also on A/U I'm looking at this recent double tap to potentially form stronger support around 8850+ So lastly NZD has been dominating the cross, could be time for a bit of retracement and...
well from your charts you are better fundamentalist than technician Thanks for taking a look though, cheers mate
  • #31,485
  • Jan 10, 2014 1:33am Jan 10, 2014 1:33am
Quoting Ulterior
{quote} well from your charts you are better fundamentalist than technician Thanks for taking a look though, cheers mate
Any time. I used to do a lot more technical analysis, these days I don't do as much. If you want more specific and smaller targets I'd be happy to add them.

Either way, right now it still will remain the same paramount that AUDs could stand to rise against both the Kiwi and USD, as well,
the risk reward for a longer term trade is great.

I like to look at the bigger picture first and then draw down from there.

I posted some Gold and Silver charts daily silver and weekly gold with a ton more technical analysis on them the other day if you are interested just go back about 2 pages.

For techs, I like simplicity, S/R levels, Moving averages, Trend Lines, chart patterns, fibos, etc, sometimes RSI and stochs for extra confirmation, pure price action,
yet I don't overload my charts anymore. It really helps to get a fresh picture going, rather than being bogged down with too many lagging indicators
that may or may not match up.

Actually i just did a quick draw down cause I like the potential here. Oddly enough just adding some simple horizontal s/r for immediate H4 targets I added the 50, 100 and 200 smas and boom - matched right up.

Potential first resistance coming up soon @ 1.0817 - then first real target 1.0915 right were the 200 sma H4 comes in,
but with 0817 as a potential stall and already 6 consecutive north bars I might look for minimal pullback there, then enter and put a stop below 1.0725

take a look. Also note how the 50 sma has been a great sell point with a stop just resting above the 100 (red) been going on for weeks up until now where the two have crossed and the PA is getting higher into the buffer zone.
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XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #31,486
  • Edited 2:15am Jan 10, 2014 1:59am | Edited 2:15am
Good morning everyone! Last long triggered TP @ 1237.50.

Two more entry orders:
Limit Buy: 1231 TP 1244 SL 1226
Stop Buy: 1238 TP 1244 SL 1237

It is NPF day, so I would like to set my SL tight before the release.

Update: Looks like another rally is on the way. Buy atm @ 1235. SL 1235 TP 1239.

Update: Stopped out at BE. Still following the previous plan (either test of 1230, either a breakout of previous top).
  • #31,487
  • Jan 10, 2014 2:14am Jan 10, 2014 2:14am
Quoting XTrade
{quote} Yeah - still waiting on a response for that one, even when the market is absolutely dead, the tick chart will always move - mainly from the actual spread fluctuating in price not necessarily on actual price action or any sort of momentum. Actually growing curious as to what the bot does. Personally I don't like bot-trading for Gold at all. I do however have what I consider to be a pretty awesome idea for the ULTIMATE Gold (and PMs) as well as Oil/GOLD_Bot! But, for now I am keeping it to myself! I mean that last dead area isn't even a 50...
Have you implemented your bot/algo already?

I am testing my strategies for FX and gold on my platform, and fixing the last bugs of this platform.

If you have good strategy, you should let it run! Even if the profits per trade is 50 cents.
  • #31,488
  • Jan 10, 2014 2:51am Jan 10, 2014 2:51am
Hey guys who will trade NFP here is some data: based on las year there was 7 Bulls average TP 1073 ST 300 and 4 Bears average TP 1037 ST 150!!!
  • #31,489
  • Edited 3:42am Jan 10, 2014 2:56am | Edited 3:42am
Bearish Hidden divergence on H4 (with CCI) and @1237 is fibonacci's 61,8% , so I see an ABCD pattern with TP at 1208.
Another bearish hidden divergence on D1 (with stochastic)...
Strong sell? (Obviously waiting for NFP)
What do you think about?

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If you do not know who you are, the Forex is the worst place to find you
  • #31,490
  • Jan 10, 2014 3:06am Jan 10, 2014 3:06am
NFP may go south, but its just matter of Price, as from which Price it will hit south!
  • #31,491
  • Jan 10, 2014 7:20am Jan 10, 2014 7:20am
Quoting Pipsoholic
{quote} Update... Targetting 1250 level. {image}
10 min before NFP... Hopefully can reach the target. If it against my trade... cut all at +ve....

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Catch your dreams!
  • #31,492
  • Jan 10, 2014 7:38am Jan 10, 2014 7:38am
Quoting Pipsoholic
{quote} 10 min before NFP... Hopefully can reach the target. If it against my trade... cut all at +ve.... {image}
Happy for you!
  • #31,493
  • Jan 10, 2014 7:42am Jan 10, 2014 7:42am
What are the news!!! One bad, and one good. LOL. The PA is up in overall.
  • #31,494
  • Jan 10, 2014 7:43am Jan 10, 2014 7:43am
I do hope you guys are out @ 1244, just like I did. Short from 1242, Target 1222, SL 1246.

Btw, so many good entries in last 5 mins, I opened huge position on EUR/USD. USD/JPY and AUD/USD. Oh, gold also.

Good luck!
  • #31,495
  • Jan 10, 2014 7:57am Jan 10, 2014 7:57am
Quoting okanemici
Gold is going to break up above 1228 tonite, still holding my long from 1225 ! {image}
Quoting okanemici
{quote} Now it is printing 1232 , what I expect is attached.A move to 1245-1250, then a chop there, possibly a drop to 1230 then up or down depending on the market conditions and PA. {image}
As stated before gold is targeting daily 50 after the pullback to daily 20.
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  • #31,496
  • Jan 10, 2014 8:01am Jan 10, 2014 8:01am
Quoting Ulterior
it will return to 1227 just before big news, very low volume, just a sto phunting and expanding triangle play I posted before
Congrats on the number 1227 you mentioned before.I was expecting a stop hunt between 1225-1229 too but what made you print 1227 ?
  • #31,497
  • Jan 10, 2014 8:10am Jan 10, 2014 8:10am
Despite the rally, Gold could not breach 1245. IMO, only a break above 1248 will be bullish.

PS: Not vested at the moment.
The true fact is market doesn't care, risk mgt is important.
  • #31,498
  • Jan 10, 2014 8:30am Jan 10, 2014 8:30am
Quoting Ssm
Despite the rally, Gold could not breach 1245. IMO, only a break above 1248 will be bullish. PS: Not vested at the moment.
It did. Printed 1245 as the high on CME.
"Where you want to be is always in control, never wishing, always trading.
  • #31,499
  • Jan 10, 2014 8:31am Jan 10, 2014 8:31am
Quoting okanemici
{quote} Congrats on the number 1227 you mentioned before.I was expecting a stop hunt between 1225-1229 too but what made you print 1227 ?
1227 was day's pivot line
  • #31,500
  • Jan 10, 2014 8:40am Jan 10, 2014 8:40am
Quoting Spec_And
{quote} It did. Printed 1245 as the high on CME.
I am actually looking for at least a H1 or higher candle close to be on the conservative side.
The true fact is market doesn't care, risk mgt is important.
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