Bitcoin technical analysis | Page 53 | Crypto Craft

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Related Instruments

BTC/USD

Similar Threads

Bitcoin-Family math and technical analysis 21 replies

Bitcoin Analysis 22 replies

Fundamental Analysis, Technical Analysis Or Graph Analysis? 28 replies

Attachments: Bitcoin technical analysis
Exit Attachments

Bitcoin technical analysis

  • #1,041
  • Jan 6, 2014 10:43am Jan 6, 2014 10:43am
Quoting lady_luck
{quote} Thing is, if he were to cash out some btc, he would be in for tax evasion and all that. So as long as I'm ready to believe that Satoshi is a group of individual, they can't be part of the financial institution. This kind of secret always get out, imagine the scandal ! "X bank behind the creation of BTC" or "X governmental consortium are Satoshi ; helping fraud in the nation". No, Satoshi can be many people, but not part of the system, and up to now, the risk of cashing out his stash is too big.
well he is going to keep growing his acc until the power is so much that he could buy his way out, lol, if he is part of the elite I'm sure they have a plan already to get out, but he don't have to show as X governmental or show up at all, as a Mather of fact he could show as anonymous and still be the beast in self......there is so much we don't know or have the capacity to comprehend that is blows my mind, the things I read or see in the movies sometimes.......oh well my grandkids will know for sure what happen with this BTC perhaps after I die and meet with me up there, they will tell me, lol, yesterday was my birthday so I think the alcohol still in my head, I better shut up here, lol
The Chonchy
  • #1,042
  • Jan 6, 2014 10:51am Jan 6, 2014 10:51am
Quoting lady_luck
{quote} Thing is, if he were to cash out some btc, he would be in for tax evasion and all that. So as long as I'm ready to believe that Satoshi is a group of individual, they can't be part of the financial institution. This kind of secret always get out, imagine the scandal ! "X bank behind the creation of BTC" or "X governmental consortium are Satoshi ; helping fraud in the nation". No, Satoshi can be many people, but not part of the system, and up to now, the risk of cashing out his stash is too big. I(edit : great typo, obviously not I, he)'ll...
even though if he is Japanese also have to pay taxes?
The Chonchy
  • #1,043
  • Jan 6, 2014 10:52am Jan 6, 2014 10:52am
Quoting chonchy
.......Any body have this same spike on gold? {image}

i'm catching up on the conversation - was having dinner...

yes, on tradingview the same thing, looks like someone dropped a ton of Gold in the market - (or a ton of paper)

You guys know, I'm not so clever with all the mysteries in the world, and i don't understand forex and the Gold market... i keep reading how China is stockpiling Gold and buying in bulk from every willing seller. Well, my childlike mind tells me that if this was true then we would see the Gold chart rising - but instead its been declining for 2 years straight. So if the dominant mode was buying then it would go up right? Or is this chart mostly paper sales?

http://ubuntuone.com/633t1imIsUDiPtMfwUE6br
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #1,044
  • Jan 6, 2014 10:53am Jan 6, 2014 10:53am
Quoting chonchy
{quote} well he is going to keep growing his acc until the power is so much that he could buy his way out, lol, if he is part of the elite I'm sure they have a plan already to get out, but he don't have to show as X governmental or show up at all, as a Mather of fact he could show as anonymous and still be the beast in self......there is so much we don't know or have the capacity to comprehend that is blows my mind, the things I read or see in the movies sometimes.......oh well my grandkids will know for sure what happen with this BTC perhaps after...
Awe, happy birthday And no, don't shut up, these are so very valid point you raised
  • #1,045
  • Jan 6, 2014 10:59am Jan 6, 2014 10:59am
Quoting venzen
{quote} i'm catching up on the conversation - was having dinner... yes, on tradingview the same thing, looks like someone dropped a ton of Gold in the market - (or a ton of paper) You guys know, I'm not so clever with all the mysteries in the world, and i don't understand forex and the Gold market... i keep reading how China is stockpiling Gold and buying in bulk from every willing seller. Well, my childlike mind tells me that if this was true then we would see the Gold chart rising - but instead its been declining for 2 years straight. So if the...
As I sort of mentioned, I used to live in Australia, and a year ago, Western australia had a visit of Hillary Clinton. She was meeting with a Chinese representative, US wanted out of the Australian gold mines, and China wanted in.
And similar rumor, about Botswana and South African mining company being taken over.
So i guess their is way for China to invest, literally buy and accumulate gold or gold related resources without any transaction showing on the market. Kind of buying bitcoin hand to hand with cash in the street wouldn't affect the price despite the amount changing hand.
  • #1,046
  • Jan 6, 2014 11:11am Jan 6, 2014 11:11am
Quoting chonchy
........What do you guys see in this tree charts, or instruments?......I see a lot of similarities, could they be the same people pulling the strings and retail just got in the way? I mean think about it, the tree of them move similar don't they, so it could be the same elite or banking cartels manipulating the trades, but in this case, the kids that got involve in this particular instrument, the BTC, have change the game for them and now the kids are driving the price up, yeah I'm talking about those rich kids that started mining this in 2008,...

Good point to raise... I think the personality of the Bitcoin chart shows a certain trading style amongst the top BTC traders. Just like the GBPUSD and the CHFUSD look different, so the Bitcoin has a "look" with these crazy rallies and deep corrections. Very much like the Gold and Silver charts (which is why I always say its a commodity by nature). So when I was trading Gold a lot, we had a saying on XTrade's thread that 8:30am GMT was time for the London "head-fake" - most days at that time the price would suddenly start dropping for 30mins and then at the London open (9am) it would shoot up double the distance. This was normal. Plus some other funny business that you guys know about - the "stop hunt", etc... There are definitely manipulations going on in all markets - the big fish have to take control of the pool at feeding time and we retailers can get hurt if we're between a preadtor and his meal! lol

So, chonchy, i think you're right... these guys are now coming to Bitcoin with all their tricks and the market behaviour will change. I can't show a screenshot now because my other laptop is inside where my wife is sleeping, but i noticed tonight how the MtGox orderbook has swelled - before there were mostly 0.01-0.2 sized orders every few cents of the Dollar, but now those orders are 10-100 coins being bought and sold - I thought I wasn't seeing right! I don't know when that changed because at Christmas there were maybe 3 or 4 10BTC orders in the book... and now look.

I saw an article last week where someone spotted a pattern in the blockchain of 0.2BTC orders to the total of 2000 coins every 5 cents from 725 (i think) upwards - all from the same address. OK so that's not a crime but it's definitely an effort to disguise the transaction.

All this early days stuff will change and I think eventually the US Govt (ie Wall Street + the Fed) will control Bitcoin and its mining. It threatens their power so how could they just let it run it's natural course? Maybe it turns out different, but we have to consider these thoughts.
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #1,047
  • Jan 6, 2014 11:17am Jan 6, 2014 11:17am
Attached Image


assuming wave 4 retraces 38.2% of wave 3.... bottom at 949.25

we can calculate a wave 5 target (of this wave 3)

(1093.68 - 610) x 0.618 + 949.25 = 1,248.16 (wave 5 of 3 target of 1)
  • #1,048
  • Edited 11:57am Jan 6, 2014 11:28am | Edited 11:57am
Quoting chonchy
{quote} well he is going to keep growing his acc until the power is so much that he could buy his way out, lol, if he is part of the elite I'm sure they have a plan already to get out, but he don't have to show as X governmental or show up at all, as a Mather of fact he could show as anonymous and still be the beast in self......there is so much we don't know or have the capacity to comprehend that is blows my mind, the things I read or see in the movies sometimes.......oh well my grandkids will know for sure what happen with this BTC perhaps after...

happy birthday yesterday, chonchy!

the conversation is great because these are issues we have to consider. And as you say, sometimes the movies seem fantastical, but there is nothing new under the sun! I tell you, having grown up in South Africa under the Nazis - when our liberation struggle won the victory, we had Truth and Reconciliation hearings where anybody from the former regime (and the liberation movement) could get amnesty (from imprisonment) for atrocities they had committed during Apartheid. Man, the stories that came out were out-of-this-world! No movie can shock or surprise me like that anymore... the paranoia that exists in the ruling elite and their state servants is incredible and they go to amazing lengths to carry out schemes and fight imaginary threats with incredible technology. And the capacity for cruelty of man to man (and more to woman) is unlimited. I don't know who really made Bitcoin and maybe has a backdoor to its encryption. I don't care if its anonymous or not. In a lot of ways it fits the criteria of a scheme to cleverly con people into a new currency... or maybe it's freedom brilliance is true. I just want to trade this thing so I can eat next month.

edit: apologies - i think my tone might come across too harshly - what i'm saying is that even if Bitcoin were the suphurous currency of the devil himself, it's a great instrument to trade and it's moving which is great for active trade. If it's higher purpose is for good and this becomes realized - even better for the world. It's just that I don't know if people can be trusted to put its to it's true potential. If they do or if the coin has a quality in itself that prevents its corruption it will be a good thing.
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #1,049
  • Jan 6, 2014 11:31am Jan 6, 2014 11:31am
Quoting emptymind
{image} assuming wave 4 retraces 38.2% of wave 3.... bottom at 949.25 we can calculate a wave 5 target (of this wave 3) (1093.68 - 610) x 0.618 + 949.25 = 1,248.16 (wave 5 of 3 target of 1)

great application of the EWP, emptymind!
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #1,050
  • Jan 6, 2014 11:34am Jan 6, 2014 11:34am
Quoting lady_luck
{quote} No, Satoshi can be many people, but not part of the system, and up to now, the risk of cashing out his stash is too big. I(edit : great typo, obviously not I, he)'ll have to wait for BTC to be somewhat regulated by government, and hope for the best
hehehe lady_satoshi or is it satoshi_luck trading and posting at FF - whoohoo!
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #1,051
  • Jan 6, 2014 11:40am Jan 6, 2014 11:40am
Quoting lady_luck
{quote} Only thing is bitcoin wallet are public, within the top 10, you have Satoshi and 1000000 btc, then DPR/fbi with 175000btc, the sheepmarketscam with 100000btc, satoshidice may be 200000btc, butterflylab 150000btc, and a few exchanges flirting with a private capital approximating 100000btc. That should account for the first 25%. Then you have a lot of early adopter, hackers, ex SR sellers, early miner with 50000btc. And only then come a bunch of wallet with around 10000btc that can be attribute to hedge fund, investment firm and the following....

i thought about that today actually: these institutions would probably prefer not to go to the exchanges but instead go to a miner or other holder of a big wallet and make a generous offer PLUS a contract (Non-Disclosure Agreement) which keeps the coins in the original owner's wallet - so it never goes through the blockchain or exchange and becomes a third party only paper asset. Which their clients buy and sell into via an ETF - exactly like paper Gold and most financial derivatives.
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #1,052
  • Jan 6, 2014 8:20pm Jan 6, 2014 8:20pm
Quoting venzen
{quote} sounds like a sensible amount to transfer to BTC-e. Yep you've got an RSI indicator on that chart - it can be your best friend in terms of predicting direction - so do read about it at babypips.com (i did that whole course and sometimes refresh on jargon/concepts there). Also check out Support & Resistance which is a base-knowledge concept that is usually the first thing a trader/analyst looks for on a chart. You just have to go ahead and trade - experience some successes and failures and learn from them.
Maybe you can help me here... but i think the mt4 only allows you to use cash and not bitcoins so how do i use the .10 to trade with?
  • #1,053
  • Edited 9:11pm Jan 6, 2014 8:55pm | Edited 9:11pm
Quoting Ozes
{quote} Maybe you can help me here... but i think the mt4 only allows you to use cash and not bitcoins so how do i use the .10 to trade with?

hi Ozes,

You've got to sell those Bitcoins on BTC-e: Go to "Trade" and sell 0.99 (BTC-e charge a commission so use the "Calculate" button to see their fee). Once you've sold them then click the "Finances" link (top righthand corner) and then go to MT4 screen and fund your MT4 account. This USD now becomes "Margin" which gets consumed with each position you open.

When you're on the MT4 platform you'll use the USD to buy and sell Bitcoins. Minimum trade size is 0.01BTC which (at say $895/BTC) will consume $8.95 of margin. With a 0.01BTC position you will earn $0.01 for every pip ($0.01) that price goes in your direction. When you eventually close the position (at profit or loss - doesn't matter) then you will also reclaim the margin.

You seem very new at this, have you considered first trading with an MT4 demo account for a few weeks to learn the ropes?

edit: *leverage: you can choose the leverage of your MT4 account: 1:1, 1:2 or 1:3 - this does not change how much you earn per pip but allows you to gear your margin higher. I suggest you stick with 1:1 leverage for now because you have to learn to walk before you can run
The formula that brokers use to calculate margin incorporates leverage like this:

Inserted Code
margin = (price * lot_size) / leverage


So, for a 0.01BTC lot size at 1:1 leverage and with price at say $895:

margin = (895 * 0.01) / 1 = $8.95

Keep everything the same but change leverage to 1:3, and

margin = (895 * 0.01) / 3 = $2.98

So, it's basically free money from the broker - but at the risk of potentially painting oneself in a corner very quickly because although your margin is 3x more, your actual capital (that will absorb losses) remains the same! Use this only when you have learnt how to hedge positions - some months from now...
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #1,054
  • Jan 6, 2014 9:04pm Jan 6, 2014 9:04pm
Quoting chonchy
{quote} well he is going to keep growing his acc until the power is so much that he could buy his way out, lol, if he is part of the elite I'm sure they have a plan already to get out, but he don't have to show as X governmental or show up at all, as a Mather of fact he could show as anonymous and still be the beast in self......there is so much we don't know or have the capacity to comprehend that is blows my mind, the things I read or see in the movies sometimes.......oh well my grandkids will know for sure what happen with this BTC perhaps after...
Happy Birthday my friend. May this year be a better one for you then last year. We are getting to old for this stuff. God bless you Carlos.
The Dove - Forex Trainer
  • #1,055
  • Edited 9:56pm Jan 6, 2014 9:30pm | Edited 9:56pm
Quoting venzen
{quote} hi Ozes, You've got to sell those Bitcoins on BTC-e: Go to "Trade" and sell 0.99 (BTC-e charge a commission so use the "Calculate" button to see their fee). Once you've sold them then click the "Finances" link (top righthand corner) and then go to MT4 screen and fund your MT4 account. This USD now becomes "Margin" which gets consumed with each position you open. When you're on the MT4 platform you'll use the USD to buy and sell Bitcoins. Minimum trade size is 0.01BTC which (at say $895/BTC) will consume $8.95 of margin. With a 0.01BTC position...

This is great info! Thanks! this will take a bit to digest. I traded before but not forex. This is a whole new beast. Im going through the info you and XT gave me The anonymous paper and the pipschool. Any suggestions for settings on the mt4 are there any downloadable presets for layouts that might be helpful? I need to customize the whole platform. I will go the demo route until i understand about pips and mt4..

Thanks again. Question? Did you buy or add in on the Dip?

Also what is the benefit of trading with pips rather on the main page of BTC-E?
  • #1,056
  • Jan 6, 2014 9:59pm Jan 6, 2014 9:59pm
Quoting Ozes
{quote} This is great info! Thanks! this will take a bit to digest. I traded before but not forex. This is a whole new beast. Im going through the info you and XT gave me The anonymous paper and the pipschool. Any suggestions for settings on the mt4 are there any downloadable presets for layouts that might be helpful? I need to customize the whole platform. I will go the demo route until i understand about pips and mt4.. Thanks again. Question? Did you buy or add in on the Dip?

I bought on that retracement low because

1) $880 is an important Support/Resistance (S/R) level and price challenged it twice and then retreated
2) price turned at the ascending trendline (TL)
3) my indicators showed price was oversold and additionally
4) there is not yet a MACD lower high accompanied by a higher high in price - so I know another wave up is due.

http://ubuntuone.com/0ldWquNaBArJWMQECADUUF

As for MT4, I'm not much help - perhaps later chonchy can give some advice. I only use the mobile version of MT4 to open and close trades but do my chart analysis with tradingview.com

Re: forex - yes, it's a strange field to trade - you basically have to know currency fundamentals, central bank policy and institutional swarming. Not being the brightest bear in the woods, I don't like to trade forex to be honest and prefer commodities. We've had discusions in this thread about the nature of Bitcoin and in my opinion it is not yet behaving as a currency but more like a commodity (think Gold/Silver). This will no doubt change in the coming months since Silicon Valley is now being funded to incorporate Bitcoin in online retail (gaming, Amazon, etc)

Let me ask you a question: Besides trading, do you excell at any games of chance? Which?
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #1,057
  • Jan 6, 2014 10:03pm Jan 6, 2014 10:03pm
Quoting venzen
{quote} I bought on that retracement low because 1) $880 is an important Support/Resistance (S/R) level and price reversed just above $880 without challenging it again 2) price turned at the ascending trendline (TL) 3) my indicators showed price was oversold and additionally 4) there is not yet a MACD lower high accompanied by a higher high in price - so I know another wave up is due. As for MT4, I'm not much help - perhaps later chonchy can give some advice. I only use the mobile version of MT4 to open and close trades but do my chart analysis...
Texas Holdem. I have not tried much of any other. You?
  • #1,058
  • Jan 6, 2014 10:17pm Jan 6, 2014 10:17pm
Quoting Ozes
{quote} Maybe you can help me here... but i think the mt4 only allows you to use cash and not bitcoins so how do i use the .10 to trade with?
There appears to be only two brokers with MT4 platforms for Bitcoin so far & BOTH MT4 platforms are not performing correctly with Bitcoin. ???????
Not sure what the problem is but both are not Bitcoin friendly. AVA trader is OK but their AVA MT4 is playing up .??
Money Makes Money
  • #1,059
  • Jan 6, 2014 10:26pm Jan 6, 2014 10:26pm
Quoting Ozes
{quote} Texas Holdem. I have not tried much of any other. You?

I'm no good at poker 'coz my face is an open book but I like roullette and i find it similar to trading - at least the red/black bet is - it's similar to up/down bets on the price direction. Indicators help us determine direction - but determining the extent (distance) of the move is more tricky!

IMO Bitcoin is on a longer term upward trajectory until the mood towards Bitcoin changes. Right now the mood is very positive and dips like the one we're in are often technical corrections based on important psychological levels being achieved ($1000 in this case). However, any major bad news (often regulatory) quickly results in a larger sell-off. But Ithink for now Bitcoin is being supported by wide adoption, massive investment into Bitcoin related services and a silent approval by US authorities. But keep an ear on the ground regarding what the authorities have to say as well as the Achilles Heel of Bitcoin - the integrity of its encryption.

Regardless of one's opinion of whether or not trading is "gambling" - the core skill common to both is the money management aspect - which is exactly the same in practice - you want to survive each hand/trade to play the next.

Inserted Video
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #1,060
  • Jan 6, 2014 10:44pm Jan 6, 2014 10:44pm
Quoting venzen
{quote} I'm no good at poker 'coz my face is an open book but I like roullette and i find it similar to trading - at least the red/black bet is - it's similar to up/down bets on the price direction. Indicators help us determine direction - but determining the extent (distance) of the move is more tricky! IMO Bitcoin is on a longer term upward trajectory until the mood towards Bitcoin changes. Right now the mood is very positive and dips like the one we're in are often technical corrections based on important psychological levels being achieved...
Man that video brings back memories as a kid thanks for attaching that!

Do we have current news about the investments in silicon valley and wallstreet acceptance? I read it somewhere but not sure where...
1 trader viewing now