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Bitcoin technical analysis

  • #941
  • Jan 3, 2014 11:01pm Jan 3, 2014 11:01pm
.........Is in deed a bit of a gamble venzen so don't follow me........please.
The Chonchy
  • #942
  • Jan 3, 2014 11:40pm Jan 3, 2014 11:40pm
http://img203.imageshack.us/img203/8413/kvcg.png
The Chonchy
  • #943
  • Jan 3, 2014 11:50pm Jan 3, 2014 11:50pm
According to Coindesk Survey, 56% of Bitcoiners Believe the Bitcoin Price Will Reach $10,000 in 2014! the bitcoin community largely thinks it will soar way higher than this over the next 12 months.

A whopping 56% of the 5,500 people polled so far said they believe the price will reach $10,000 this year.
Back in early December, a report from Wall Street analysts Gil Luria and Aron Turner predicted that the price of bitcoin could increase to almost $100,000.
The Chonchy
  • #944
  • Jan 4, 2014 12:17am Jan 4, 2014 12:17am
Quoting chonchy
.........Is in deed a bit of a gamble venzen so don't follow me........please.

no, don't worry about that - i have my method but i'm interested in your analysis because sometimes I get so busy on other things that I miss important technical signals. Thanks for explaining yourself so clearly with many charts.

I wonder what you think about the following reasoning. Let me explain:

When I take a position in instruments like Gold and UsdJpy and PA goes opposite to what I expected, I always have the uncertainty of not knowing if PA will come back to me. So I would put a reasonable stop loss in place. You know? Say, a few months ago, I was thinking Gold had started a bull market rally so any short position I was taking I was putting a tight SL because I feared that Gold might just carry on going up until $2300 and you don't want to hold a short in Gold that has run $1000 against you! Same with the Yen pairs... who knows what kind of devaluation the BoJ could do and just wreck any short position. On the other hand: Any kind of long term USD weakness could destroy a long position in the Yens - so there is always that insecurity and we trade short term to be safe and not stay in the market too long, right?

OK, so now to Bitcoin. It's not the same. We are quite close to the floor at current levels. If Bitcoin goes to zero then it doesn't matter if I have a long position running against me because the market would be destroyed. Entonces, with BTCUSD at $10 I could easily fund my account with another $100 and buy 10 Bitcoins. But if it goes to zero my losses are $200 - no big deal. And Bitcoin is over. BUT:

It's not like that. Bitcoin is going over $2000 easy. Who knows where it will stop. I don't even want to think about that because I can make a lot of profit between $800 and $2000. Also, I say $800... we can still get a correction to $373 or $500 - who knows? My point is, the danger here is shorting. Any long position will eventually go into profit. So my thinking is I don't put stop losses on my longs. Like i said before, if the BTC market goes to the gutter it doesn't matter - however, it DOES matter if my longs are large and they are being subjected to deep corrections... like now: one can open max leverage max position size long only to find we correct down to $373 and one's account will be wiped out - a great shame because the lower the price goes the stronger the long position we can open. So one doesn't want to oversize your long position even though it is guaranteed (by Wall Street and Silicon Valley's interest in BTC) to go into profit sooner than later.

Now here's the thing, MT4 on BTC-e offers us the ability to hold simultaneous long and short positions. This allows us to hedge our long trades. I am opening longs with no SL and whenever I spot a short opportunity I open both a short and long of equivalent size. If my short position does not go into profit then it means my long IS in profit, so when PA shows the short trade has no chance I can cut it loose at no loss. This is for BTC because we have a lot of confidence about upside and only limited downside available.

A lot of people argue against hedging and those arguments make sense in a market that can go any direction based on a shifting fundamental landscape. But here I see a clear and safe application of this trade technique. If we push the idea further it also means that we can open big positions (relative to our account size) in the long direction because any sign that PA wants to tumble down we can immediately open a hedge... but this is something we have to discuss and test. What do you think? It's probably late where you are so respond when you have had time to think about it.
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #945
  • Jan 4, 2014 12:26am Jan 4, 2014 12:26am
Quoting chonchy
According to Coindesk Survey, 56% of Bitcoiners Believe the Bitcoin Price Will Reach $10,000 in 2014! the bitcoin community largely thinks it will soar way higher than this over the next 12 months. A whopping 56% of the 5,500 people polled so far said they believe the price will reach $10,000 this year. Back in early December, a report from Wall Street analysts Gil Luria and Aron Turner predicted that the price of bitcoin could increase to almost $100,000.

funny you post that while i'm devising a strategy based on the upside expectation.

I saw those figures yesterday - those are some large upside figures - seeing is believing but I i think $10,000 is achievable. The Winklevos brothers advocate $40,000. $100k? hmmm, now that would require us to hold some actual coins to feel the full benefit of such a valuation!
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #946
  • Jan 4, 2014 12:57am Jan 4, 2014 12:57am
Quoting venzen
{quote} no, don't worry about that - i have my method but i'm interested in your analysis because sometimes I get so busy on other things that I miss important technical signals. Thanks for explaining yourself so clearly with many charts. I wonder what you think about the following reasoning. Let me explain: When I take a position in instruments like Gold and UsdJpy and PA goes opposite to what I expected, I always have the uncertainty of not knowing if PA will come back to me. So I would put a reasonable stop loss in place. You know? Say, a few...
Hedging if done properly is ok, what concern me is that if BTC goes up again parabolic like a few months ago, then your short are in trouble, and it may not come back to those low levels again. hedge is a double edge sword and the person who teach me all I know in forex (The_Dove Alliance) told me never hedge, we try to trade less but more certain, intraday, I'm no good with predictions or long term charts, I'm good with the 15, 30 and one hour charts with entries on the 5M, BTC is on a no trade zone for us, so I scalp to entertain myself, hedging when done properly is very effective, a good friend of mine, driver55 is good at it, but is risky and dangerous, if you open a short and a long at the same time in a range is ok but if one take off, there is a loss, with small lots is ok but then there is no gain, I prefer to trade in one direction especially this instrument that moves nice, if you look at the daily chart you will see that when the moving averages give you angle and separation, the pull backs are solid trades, all you have to do is see where the next floor is going to be and I think is this crawling of the price up, with MACD at the 0 line, and RSI in the middle, if it drops is panic and then the sharks will buy back, so is no way to lose going long here, and if in dough, average in, all though I know you like to get in and get out with your money daily, I think instead of hedging, a small long and then going short and long scalping is the way to go, but I don't think price is going lower, technically anyways, only panic will do it, and like I say, going long with the sharks is good when it goes down there, BTC is here to stay venzen, too much money in it already, Hong Kong is building, buildings of miners, do you think they are crazy? and who is doing all this buying lately?, look at this daily chart, almost 20 days making higher lows and higher heights, who is doing it?, small fish, small fish don't move the market, I see on BTC-e orders people buying 30 000 dollars at a time, 50 000 dollars, or either they are fealty rich and are throwing money away or they know some we don't know, all I know is that for this daily chart to break all those ema's down, it needs a lot of panic, It can happen but so what, rinse and repeat, small stop or +1 as soon as you can, if you get stop so what, "Rinse and Repeat" like my old friend fxhermit used to say, the stops are the only way that let you trade another day, unless a good money management is in place, but then with no gains, no bill paying, I intent to make money with this what started as a game, but now with the MT4 platform working I intent to make money here with this instrument in 2014......my 2 cents....

.....also is true is only 100 dollars.....but the thing is that for me to put money in BTC is hard here in US, this Obama is a socialist, no dough, now we need to pay health insurance like social security, mandatory, and social security is bankrupt, so health insurance is going to be like in Canada, that the Canadians have to come here for dialysis.......oh well I just hope to do some money and get out, where is it that you are exactly venzen?, save me a space .........lol
The Chonchy
  • #947
  • Jan 4, 2014 1:07am Jan 4, 2014 1:07am
Quoting venzen
{quote} funny you post that while i'm devising a strategy based on the upside expectation. I saw those figures yesterday - those are some large upside figures - seeing is believing but I i think $10,000 is achievable. The Winklevos brothers advocate $40,000. $100k? hmmm, now that would require us to hold some actual coins to feel the full benefit of such a valuation!
I have done a few trades with the MT4 platform successfully up to now, if it keeps going this well, I will try to put all my forex money into btc-e and risk it for a year, like you say if it goes down we buy more, and more is good......so if it goes to 10 000 I will see the full benefit of this valuation....or die trying........no risk no pain, no pain no game......
The Chonchy
  • #948
  • Jan 4, 2014 1:08am Jan 4, 2014 1:08am
Quoting chonchy
{quote} I have done a few trades with the MT4 platform successfully up to now, if it keeps going this well, I will try to put all my forex money into btc-e and risk it for a year, like you say if it goes down we buy more, and more is good......so if it goes to 10 000 I will see the full benefit of this valuation....or die trying........no risk no pain, no pain no game......
the thing is to buy BTC here in US......
The Chonchy
  • #949
  • Jan 4, 2014 1:34am Jan 4, 2014 1:34am
Quoting chonchy
{quote} Hedging if done properly is ok... save me a space .........lol

you see, that's why i ask, because the discussion shows me some things i might not have thought about. With Gold I wasted a lot of capital getting my initial entries stopped out - only for price to return and go in my direction anyway, so i began researching this idea of hedging and the other day i accidentally discovered that BTCe makes it possible. So thanks for your feedback. It needs to be carefully applied if at all.

I'm in the Andaman Sea close to Thailand. Well, Thailand is amazing of course. But a problem with Thailand is that their central bank has banned Bitcoin so I have to be careful where I keep my coins because I don't want to be on the wrong side of that law when I go to the mainland and find the Bitcoin police there!

You mention Obama is a socialist... maybe he is being painted this way in the media, but there is no way i can see the Wall Street Government employing a socialist as their front man. Having grown up in South Africa under a Nazi/US funded nationalist regime, I view what is happening in the US more as a slow kreep towards a Police State with the centralized features of Stalin's autocracy. Obama seems to be the Black man that got suckered into the job and now has to do what they tell him or lose his life (or his family) if he doesn't go along with it. After Obama gets impeached, the US will probably get a rightwing white man as President and then they will say that the "socialist damage" and Democrat misgovernance needs to be corrected - and that is when the real hardcore centralisation will become apparent. You know what "The Matrix" and "Planet of the Apes" is all about, so I don't have to say more. Bob Marley said: "You got a horse race, you got a dog race, you got a human race - but this is a rat race.."

Let's hit the BTC for what it's worth. We spotted the opportunity and we're taking it. I cannot see the point of putting my hard earned money in most of these forex pairs and manipulated commodities for 20pip trades that mostly go wrong despite my best efforts at analysis. With BTC I analyse and the market does exactly what my analysis said it would, so the road ahead is clear!
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #950
  • Jan 4, 2014 1:56am Jan 4, 2014 1:56am
Quoting chonchy
{quote} the thing is to buy BTC here in US......

Its difficult from everywhere, my friend. Seems the Europeans have it easier. If I wasn't earning Bitcoins I don't know how I'd be able to participate because I am between countries and out of the banking net. Anyway, no need to buy a lot - buy as many coins as you can afford but focus on the trading account capital. Holding 0,1BTC from $1,000 to $2,000 is a good profit of $100, but trading with a starting capital of $100 and riding the waves from $1,000 to $2,000 will likely yield double or triple that because we can open new trades with our profits plus we have leverage.

I had the idea to also open some positions in Gold (with Silver as a hedge) but I am thinking to put all my trading capital behind Bitcoin. You know last night, as BTCUSD was going toward $800 I was reading the chatbox on BTC-e homepage and all these kids were chatting about a BTC "selling wall" that prevents price from going above $800 on BTC-e; others were saying that Bitcoin has "sold-out" to Wall Street and that the best coin to trade was Namecoin; others were talking about how they're buying sports cars with their BTC-e trade profits after doubling their profits every day for a month... so it's a lot of big talk from kids right? And then when the price suddenly hit $800 some of the big mouths were like: "this is it - we're seeing $1000 tonight!" and so many kids were piling in long "up up up!" "I told yous BTC is only going up from now on!" - well 20mins later it was back below $800 and the kids were talking about a "selling wall" again.

Why do I describe that in so much detail? Because I am hearing the same thing about Gold. "It's going to the moon!" - And there is consensus. I don't really have an opinion on the price of Gold and what it's fair value is, but I suspect Bitcoin may show up Gold as an investment vehicle and store of value in the next few months. I'd rather put my cash behind the more certain trade.
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #951
  • Jan 4, 2014 2:03am Jan 4, 2014 2:03am
I don't think we are going anywhere, but if stoped out, rinse and repeat.......but at +2 there is no risk anymore.......

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: btcusdm5.png Size: 43 KB
The Chonchy
  • #952
  • Jan 4, 2014 2:11am Jan 4, 2014 2:11am
Quoting venzen
{quote} you see, that's why i ask, because the discussion shows me some things i might not have thought about. With Gold I wasted a lot of capital getting my initial entries stopped out - only for price to return and go in my direction anyway, so i began researching this idea of hedging and the other day i accidentally discovered that BTCe makes it possible. So thanks for your feedback. It needs to be carefully applied if at all. I'm in the Andaman Sea close to Thailand. Well, Thailand is amazing of course. But a problem with Thailand is that their...
In deed venzen, in deed, agree on all counts, Obama is going directly to fascism from here, but oh well something have to change soon, I pray and I think good will prevail, venzen do you have Skype, I will like to talk to you about some, thanks in advance
The Chonchy
  • #953
  • Jan 4, 2014 2:15am Jan 4, 2014 2:15am
Quoting venzen
{quote} you see, that's why i ask, because the discussion shows me some things i might not have thought about. With Gold I wasted a lot of capital getting my initial entries stopped out - only for price to return and go in my direction anyway, so i began researching this idea of hedging and the other day i accidentally discovered that BTCe makes it possible. So thanks for your feedback. It needs to be carefully applied if at all. I'm in the Andaman Sea close to Thailand. Well, Thailand is amazing of course. But a problem with Thailand is that their...
Little Andaman or south or north Andaman?
The Chonchy
  • #954
  • Jan 4, 2014 5:58am Jan 4, 2014 5:58am
Im pretty new to all of this and trying to put the puzzle together with all this great input from everyone regarding how to trade bitcoin but im missing on some vital areas. I studied Technical Anyalysis for about a year worked with some good people but always stayed away from forex because i thought it was a crazy dog and impossible to ride. Now im into bitcoin and would like to put the pieces together and start trading but dont know how this pip system works i am using the play money account to get familiar with it but i dont know the software yet and not sure what you guys are using for TA. The charts on the software are btc/dollar and bitcoin wisdom shows all of the exchanges so i am not sure how to correlate these two. Can you give me an example of a long position on the
BTC-E? Trying to learn the ropes. Thanks in Advance!

Oz
  • #955
  • Jan 4, 2014 10:36am Jan 4, 2014 10:36am
Quoting chonchy
{quote} I think 5M found support here, I will get out if it breaks this floor or support........edit: RSI at the 30 line......MACD oversold down there {image}
Now I will add in a pull back, but notice how many pullbacks on this 5M chart, but a man have to sleep, no?

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: btcusdm5.png Size: 35 KB
The Chonchy
  • #956
  • Jan 4, 2014 10:42am Jan 4, 2014 10:42am
Quoting chonchy
{quote} Now I will add in a pull back, but notice how many pullbacks on this 5M chart, but a man have to sleep, no? {image}
sorry chart is not showing the trade, this one is......

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: btcusdm15.png Size: 37 KB
The Chonchy
  • #957
  • Jan 4, 2014 10:47am Jan 4, 2014 10:47am
This is where I expect some resistance, it may bounce here, hope not......

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: btcusdm15.png Size: 37 KB
The Chonchy
  • #958
  • Jan 4, 2014 10:48am Jan 4, 2014 10:48am
Sorry wrong chart......notice the spike on November 18.....then it became support and now should be a ceiling......a place to bounce, but it did already so it may take it and keep going north, lets see.....

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: btcusdh4.png Size: 46 KB
The Chonchy
  • #959
  • Jan 4, 2014 10:59am Jan 4, 2014 10:59am
I added one more lot let see where it goes, but with a stop at +1 is no risk at all......

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: btcusdm30.png Size: 40 KB
The Chonchy
  • #960
  • Jan 4, 2014 11:25am Jan 4, 2014 11:25am
Hi venzen, a very happy New Year to u sir.

Maybe a bad year for the GIZMOS, lets see what will happen hey?
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