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Bitcoin technical analysis

  • #921
  • Jan 3, 2014 9:32am Jan 3, 2014 9:32am
Quoting mfoste1
{quote} Hi Carlos! All is well, thanks. How are you and your family doing? I've just recently been interested in bitcoin, lot of opportunities here in terms of trading. I'm trying to develop a machine learning system in python right now, so I need to find a way to stream live market data from the exchanges into my platform.

a-ha! Python and ML - another coder in the thread! good.

I've done some research and most of the exchanges use a similar websocket API that speaks JSON protocol. I actually customised my own platform based on this great project: https://github.com/prof7bit/goxtool
It handles the streaming API from MtGox. The API offers socketio, websocket and the new MtGox default: Pubnub.

However, my experience with streaming data is that it is wasteful. Why? Because your code has to keep up with it, handle it's idiosyncracies and deal with many different connection errors. Its actuallly easier to interrogate a static API every few seconds and you know exactly what you get Coins-e have some API example code in Python on their site: https://www.coins-e.com/assets/api/c...api_example.py
I found that most exchanges have the exact same API - BTC China, BTC-e, Bitfinex, etc

As for ML, well that's been an area I've wanted to explore for a long time but I find the example code and tutorials very academic and full of computer science terminology - I am self-taught and don't always have the background knowledge they build their concepts from, so i end up delaying or going for more immediate coding tasks. If you can shed some light that would be useful
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #922
  • Jan 3, 2014 10:36am Jan 3, 2014 10:36am
M1 - the depth of retracement of the wave labeled 'b' makes me think it cannot be a wave 2, therefore I expect another push to new highs - unless we can get strong downside action.

http://ubuntuone.com/5IhxVzhS1av4diBXhN0Cew
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #923
  • Jan 3, 2014 11:11am Jan 3, 2014 11:11am
On the larger picture, would that coincide with your M15-M5 labels ?
http://i.imgur.com/Y4ZvduF.png
  • #924
  • Jan 3, 2014 11:32am Jan 3, 2014 11:32am
Quoting venzen
{quote} a-ha! Python and ML - another coder in the thread! good. I've done some research and most of the exchanges use a similar websocket API that speaks JSON protocol. I actually customised my own platform based on this great project: https://github.com/prof7bit/goxtool It handles the streaming API from MtGox. The API offers socketio, websocket and the new MtGox default: Pubnub. However, my experience with streaming data is that it is wasteful. Why? Because your code has to keep up with it, handle it's idiosyncracies and deal with many...
The ML is based off of HTM(Hierarchical Temporal Memory) concepts. We have a working implementation and we are training it with some time series data. We need to find a way to connect it to the bitcoin exchanges.
  • #925
  • Jan 3, 2014 12:05pm Jan 3, 2014 12:05pm
Quoting lady_luck
On the larger picture, would that coincide with your M15-M5 labels ? {image}
lady_luck,

if you use 1-2-3-4-5 (or i-ii-iii-iv-v) labelling then it must always conclude on 5 (or v) at the wave apex. If you count 3 wave structures they're always labelled A-B-C (or a-b-c)
the structure is either a leading diagonal or a triangle. The have the same subwave DNA and structure but their functions differ:

1) a triangle has 5 subwaves (each a 3 wave A-B-C)
2) a diagonal has 5 subwaves (each a 3 wave A-B-C)

The following diagrams shows a ENDING diagonal compared to a triangle. A leading diagonal has the same continuation function as a triangle but it substitutes for waves 1 and A.

http://ubuntuone.com/0ASDxDXVgX2wCO1J276y0d

whereas a triangle will see continuation of the larger trend (in this case down), a leading diagonal substitutes as a wave 1 or wave A and points in the same direction as the larger trend (up) -so we don't know if it's a diagonal or triangle until we see what the wave down does! if the wave down goes below the start of the entire structure ($450 MtGox) then it cannot (by the EW rules) be a leading diagonal and must be a triangle.

This is really a case of not knowing and the structure can keep zigzagging between the channel lines for weeks more - but generally after 5 touch points on the channel lines the structure completes and makes the next wave structure.

i hope this is what you meant to ask and my response is not telling you what you already know.

I checked out Datacoin - and that is a great idea to use the blockchain for permanent encrypted storage! However, the developers are naughty because they can't actually do what they say they can. I asked them "why not?" - let's hear what they say.
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #926
  • Jan 3, 2014 12:17pm Jan 3, 2014 12:17pm
Quoting mfoste1
{quote} The ML is based off of HTM(Hierarchical Temporal Memory) concepts. We have a working implementation and we are training it with some time series data. We need to find a way to connect it to the bitcoin exchanges.
goxtool (linked in my previous post) can do that - check out the github repo site - especially the link to the documentation and read up about the "strategy" modules. You can put your ML code in there and it will have direct access to the API price ticks/candles/orderbook and can just gobble it up as it streams in from MtGox

For other exchanges you're going to have to find out how they make their streaming data available - but even so, I'd rather use the static API and hit the exchange for a quote every 5 secs and just pass that to the ML class as realtime data. The coins-e link i posted has a working Python example.

I'll read up on HTM - memory... does the machine learn anything or does it "remember"?
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #927
  • Jan 3, 2014 12:32pm Jan 3, 2014 12:32pm
a leading diagonal in Silver, June to Aug 2013:
this may be what we're witnessing in BTC since Dec 2013...

(notice also the extended 5th wave of wave C - this is a characteristic 5th wave in commodities)

http://ubuntuone.com/5ZIqf1nwiRW5JuobFxS3Af
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #928
  • Jan 3, 2014 12:36pm Jan 3, 2014 12:36pm
Hmm, I see, so all the i,ii,ii labels should be changed by a.b.c
I think i did wrongly label them i,ii,ii because I was picturing the a,b,c within.

Yes, i think this is one of the main problem with altcoins, I haven't seen that isn't flawed, between the pre-mined, the flawed, or simple false specs, it's hard to find one living up to it's promises, including LTC.
Which is somewhat a good things, I see this frenzy slowing down and all that cash/hope going back to btc at some point. And may devs will go back to work more on btc apps.
  • #929
  • Jan 3, 2014 3:37pm Jan 3, 2014 3:37pm
Quoting mfoste1
{quote} Hi Carlos! All is well, thanks. How are you and your family doing? I've just recently been interested in bitcoin, lot of opportunities here in terms of trading. I'm trying to develop a machine learning system in python right now, so I need to find a way to stream live market data from the exchanges into my platform.

All well here mfoste1 hope you and yours are well also, venzen got me addicted to BTC and I'm learning with him and the others here, I think is an instrument that respect the indies a lot, you are able to see the moves and execute them, no other pair is doing it right now, is hard for me to catch a move on euro/usd with all this pump and dump manipulations of the central banks.......

what a friend of mine is doing is opening various chart from different exchanges and see the arbitration.......
The Chonchy
  • #930
  • Jan 3, 2014 7:50pm Jan 3, 2014 7:50pm
BTCUSD M15 (BTC-e)

Until that lower TL is convincingly broken we cannot be sure the upside wave is complete - it counts out 5 waves allright, but there is still a chance it can develop into a larger structure to 864.

For now, the initial waves do not contradict the idea that a downtrend has started - I have my stops ready in case a surprise upside wave develops.

http://ubuntuone.com/2GGlGn7vAFEbcEvOFGcoUN
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #931
  • Jan 3, 2014 8:14pm Jan 3, 2014 8:14pm
the Good, the Bad and the Ugly (and Coinye West)

Bloomberg: Hedge fund seeks Junior Bitcoin Trader
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/help-...jhZu2CGFw.html

Opinion Piece: Statistics Chief at China’s Central Bank Bearish on Bitcoin
http://www.coindesk.com/statistics-c...-bank-bitcoin/

Why economists are right to hate Bitcoin
http://business.time.com/2014/01/03/...-to-hate-them/

BBC News - Kanye West-inspired currency 'to launch soon'
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-25588883
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #932
  • Jan 3, 2014 8:25pm Jan 3, 2014 8:25pm
Quoting lady_luck
Hmm, I see, so all the i,ii,ii labels should be changed by a.b.c I think i did wrongly label them i,ii,ii because I was picturing the a,b,c within. Yes, i think this is one of the main problem with altcoins, I haven't seen that isn't flawed, between the pre-mined, the flawed, or simple false specs, it's hard to find one living up to it's promises, including LTC. Which is somewhat a good things, I see this frenzy slowing down and all that cash/hope going back to btc at some point. And may devs will go back to work more on btc apps.

yes, that's right: 3wave moves are always labelled a-b-c and 5 wave moves 1-2-3-4-5.

in the impulsive 5wave DNA, wave 2 and 4 are corrective in function so they are counted a-b-c (usually wave 2) or a-b-c-d-e (wave 4 is usually a triangle)

When you have an a-b-c move it has the following subwaves:

wave 'a' is composed of either 5waves (1-2-3-4-5) or 3waves (a-b-c)
wave 'b' is mostly 3waves (a-b-c) and sometimes a triangle (a-b-c-d-e)
wave 'c' is ALWAYS 5waves

interesting fact: a 3wave move in the market is usually completely retraced before trend moves on!
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #933
  • Jan 3, 2014 8:32pm Jan 3, 2014 8:32pm
Quoting chonchy
{quote} All well here mfoste1 hope you and yours are well also, venzen got me addicted to BTC and I'm learning with him and the others here, I think is an instrument that respect the indies a lot, you are able to see the moves and execute them, no other pair is doing it right now, is hard for me to catch a move on euro/usd with all this pump and dump manipulations of the central banks....... what a friend of mine is doing is opening various chart from different exchanges and see the arbitration.......

I agree - there is no other pair that unfolds as clearly and adheres to technicals as well as Bitcoin. I am surprised that we are only a handful of traders in a little corner of FF who can see this - not that it's difficult to look at a chart and 'see' objective reality! Human nature is a puzzling thing... you can take a horse to the water but you can't make him drink... some of the same people who come here like concerned fathers to "warn" us about Bitcoin - they're losing money hand-over-foot trying to get the direction right in EurUsd, GbpUsd and CHF... but those markets are irrational and very difficult to trade profitably - some can do it and congratulations to them. However, the simple analysis techniques we use on Bitcoin work well and we have not been "surprised" by PA once since this thread started - that's not something I'm used to and I like it that way.
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #934
  • Edited 9:45pm Jan 3, 2014 9:07pm | Edited 9:45pm
I posted a long writeup here and on submitting it disappeared - I would like to get it back but the "edit history" seems to have disappeared from FF! Any ideas?



Why Krugman is a Luddite

In his latest piece of reactionary hogwash, "Bitcoin is Evil", Paul Krugman makes the point (just like the%2
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #935
  • Jan 3, 2014 9:29pm Jan 3, 2014 9:29pm
Quoting venzen
BTCUSD M15 (BTC-e) Until that lower TL is convincingly broken we cannot be sure the upside wave is complete - it counts out 5 waves allright, but there is still a chance it can develop into a larger structure to 864. For now, the initial waves do not contradict the idea that a downtrend has started - I have my stops ready in case a surprise upside wave develops. {image}
I think we are going back up, I'm long here at 785......
The Chonchy
  • #936
  • Jan 3, 2014 9:43pm Jan 3, 2014 9:43pm
Quoting chonchy
{quote} I think we are going back up, I'm long here at 785......

chonchy, you lost me there... what technicals makes you think trend is going back up?
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #937
  • Jan 3, 2014 10:35pm Jan 3, 2014 10:35pm
here's the output of the arbitrage code I mentioned to mfoste1 earlier - if anyone understands what this means please explain! The first exchange price in each line is realtime (i verified this on the charts) but the 2nd exchange price seems to be projected - so i don't see the point of prefering this over regular non-arb trading...

http://ubuntuone.com/3rQ6kcbH6asILb6mRuQQ9G
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #938
  • Jan 3, 2014 10:36pm Jan 3, 2014 10:36pm
Quoting venzen
{quote} chonchy, you lost me there... what technicals makes you think trend is going back up?
Maybe I'm in too earlier, but have two thirds of the position to add if it goes lower, only one third in to test the waters, I don't know I feel something in the air that it came down here to get some power and break that 816....

Monthly is up, weekly is up and daily is up, in my system a chart is up when all moving averages are over red ema 100 and in this case yellow ema 5 is over green ema 30 on the tree charts, and 30 ema green is over 100 on the tree charts, we call this sync and when they are in sync, is only a Mather of time that price take off, a big news against it is the only way to stop it, I may be wrong but it only cost me a few, and if it takes off without me is not good........


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The Chonchy
  • #939
  • Jan 3, 2014 10:44pm Jan 3, 2014 10:44pm
Quoting venzen
{quote} chonchy, you lost me there... what technicals makes you think trend is going back up?
I think 5M found support here, I will get out if it breaks this floor or support........edit: RSI at the 30 line......MACD oversold down there

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The Chonchy
  • #940
  • Jan 3, 2014 11:00pm Jan 3, 2014 11:00pm
Quoting venzen
{quote} chonchy, you lost me there... what technicals makes you think trend is going back up?
.......and in this case more than tree charts are in sync, 4H, 1H and almost 30M are also in sync for the up........30M is not all in sync but it could get in sync in a few, so is an early entrée in deed, wish me luck.......

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The Chonchy
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