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Bitcoin technical analysis

  • #701
  • Dec 18, 2013 4:08pm Dec 18, 2013 4:08pm
I've been following BTC with keen interest, but glad I haven't bought at the past 2 points I thought was a good buy 760 and 670. I'm thinking 380 and 255 are good entries now and if it gets there I might finally take the plunge and buy. Interestingly every single currency reacted with the tapering news except the crypto currencies. Seems drug trade is clearly dissociated with economics.
  • #702
  • Dec 18, 2013 6:59pm Dec 18, 2013 6:59pm
Hello everyone
I hope you all still manage to get some sleep But thank you so much for staying up and posting your analysis here

Before going to bed I was sharing emptymind perspective and was expecting wave 5 of 3 to unfold.
But as you said before Venzen, watch for the bad news to accumulate, and except the beautiful story of the homeless in wired, they start to accumulate.

Also, I've been looking back at the uptrend, and after zooming into every subwave and subminuette of a degree 5 within A and C, I'm considering being pretty conservative in my approach of today new low. I wouldn't be surprise if this last one down were to fall short.

I'm not sure yet how to confirm this hypothesis, but i'm going to look into it.
  • #703
  • Dec 18, 2013 8:09pm Dec 18, 2013 8:09pm
Price of bitcoin vs tulip during the 1637 "Tulipomania"

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BbwbzeaIIAAQDNp.png:large
"Nature's law" is called "Reason". When perfectly understood by human it is
  • #704
  • Dec 18, 2013 9:13pm Dec 18, 2013 9:13pm
Quoting Caesar95
Price of bitcoin vs tulip during the 1637 "Tulipomania" {image}

Hey, it's the same! ...erm, up to a point around the middle...

Cesar, thanks for posting. Look at it over a long enough period and any asset/commodity is a bubble. Have a look at the Coffee or Oil charts and you'll see several chart formations like that. Here's the Gold bubble since 1800:

http://ubuntuone.com/7417nULlNMTFc0eklgu0fs
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #705
  • Dec 18, 2013 9:22pm Dec 18, 2013 9:22pm
Quoting Ultimate6
I've been following BTC with keen interest, but glad I haven't bought at the past 2 points I thought was a good buy 760 and 670. I'm thinking 380 and 255 are good entries now and if it gets there I might finally take the plunge and buy. Interestingly every single currency reacted with the tapering news except the crypto currencies. Seems drug trade is clearly dissociated with economics.

HI Ultimate,

There should be another dip below $500 which will be a buying opportunity. Although called a "cryptocurrency", Bitcoin is not yet trading as a currency - it shows chart characteristics of a commodity like Soybeans or Gold. Although Fed QE policy changes do not affect the price of Bitcoin or Marijuana directly, cenbank policy toward the thing itself does have a bearing on price - as can be seen from the market reaction to PBoC statement on Bitcoin yesterday.
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #706
  • Dec 18, 2013 9:24pm Dec 18, 2013 9:24pm
Or microsoft... I remember the low of the early 2000's when people shared the same doubt, same hope, same dispute between early adopter and skeptic.
http://i.imgur.com/oKo5sr5.png
  • #707
  • Dec 18, 2013 11:14pm Dec 18, 2013 11:14pm
Quoting venzen
{quote} Hey, it's the same! ...erm, up to a point around the middle... Cesar, thanks for posting. Look at it over a long enough period and any asset/commodity is a bubble. Have a look at the Coffee or Oil charts and you'll see several chart formations like that. Here's the Gold bubble since 1800: {image}
The problem with the tulip bubble is that it lasted for a mere 4 years, not 200 years like that of gold so "looking for a period long enough" isn't necessary or even relevant in the case of bubble.
"Nature's law" is called "Reason". When perfectly understood by human it is
  • #708
  • Dec 18, 2013 11:56pm Dec 18, 2013 11:56pm
Quoting Ultimate6
I've been following BTC with keen interest, but glad I haven't bought at the past 2 points I thought was a good buy 760 and 670. I'm thinking 380 and 255 are good entries now and if it gets there I might finally take the plunge and buy. Interestingly every single currency reacted with the tapering news except the crypto currencies. Seems drug trade is clearly dissociated with economics.
Yeah
and tax free too...
Ask me, Bitcoin will explode, just by the fact that itīs a limited amount ever available....Bitpennies will be worth thousands....volatility will be there too...not recomended for the weak hands...this is just the beginning...the only danger in my view, is when governments start trying to mess with it....but they will find it hard to shut it down...
I mean, you can buy Virgin Airline tickets with Bitcoins....wait till Warren Buffett takes a try....it will skyrocket....
All the big names like Amazon and E Bay are watching closely....wonder what the Big Boys will do....they are probably already stacking up silently....
  • #709
  • Dec 19, 2013 12:00am Dec 19, 2013 12:00am
Quoting venzen
{quote} Look at it over a long enough period and any asset/commodity is a bubble. Have a look at the Coffee or Oil charts and you'll see several chart formations like that. Here's the Gold bubble since 1800: {image}
Bitcoin is neither an asset nor a commodity. In fact, bitcoin is nothing.

Lady_luck hopes for a microsoft like evolution. However nobody will buy bitcoins to solve or do something, but only to sell them at a higher price to a greater fool. Oh... Ponzi warning on.
  • #710
  • Edited 12:57am Dec 19, 2013 12:46am | Edited 12:57am
Quoting aristotel
{quote} Bitcoin is neither an asset nor a commodity. In fact, bitcoin is nothing. Lady_luck hopes for a microsoft like evolution. However nobody will buy bitcoins to solve or do something, but only to sell them at a higher price to a greater fool. Oh... Ponzi warning on.
When i had my first computer, it wasn't even windows, it was running with MS-dos 2.1 and that was the top of the top of the technology. Back then someone would have told me about internet, i wouldn't have believe in it, and wouldn't have seen the use for it.
Bitcoin is only at the early days, peer to peer is a great concept, may be it will take years or more, and if it never become a technology of it's own, the concept could live on and become the base of an other greater innovation.

Back to the charts : today I can see triangles everywhere, that's gonna take a bit longer before the next one down...
  • #711
  • Dec 19, 2013 1:08am Dec 19, 2013 1:08am
Bitcoin as a concept are interesting, it's value lies in the concept of a fiat currency outside direct national influence. But it will only be successful if it also is used as a currency. At the moment it is just a vehicle for speculation and to dodge demands of nationstates.

So you should ask yourself: am I going to use bitcoin as a day-to-day currency? Will mum and dad do that? This is what amazon/ebay are looking at, and they will just create another currency (or already have) which satisfies their objective, to have a currency, a medium of exchange.

As for Warren Buffet: he will avoid bitcon like the plague. Look what he writes about Gold or trading/speculation in general.

That we have a thread here about technical analysis of bitcoin (when clearly the real movers in this are fundamentals) should amaze me, but it doesn't. Only shows the casino-like nature of our business. Some are just here for the thrill. For this, I do recommend bitcoin...
Fail better.
  • #712
  • Dec 19, 2013 1:23am Dec 19, 2013 1:23am
Quoting lady_luck
{quote} When i had my first computer, it wasn't even windows, it was running with MS-dos 2.1 and that was the top of the top of the technology. Back then someone would have told me about internet, i wouldn't have believe in it, and wouldn't have seen the use for it. Bitcoin is only at the early days, peer to peer is a great concept, may be it will take years or more, and if it never become a technology of it's own, the concept could live on and become the base of an other greater innovation. Back to the charts : today I can see triangles everywhere,...

The paper currency too is neither an asset nor a commodity, nevertheless it serves as a medium of exchange. Bitcoin is here to stay but the price bubble may burst and stabilize over time. It has all the requisites of an international currency. Regulators may meddle with it but it will evolve its own standard ultimately.
  • #713
  • Dec 19, 2013 2:09am Dec 19, 2013 2:09am
Quoting cuchuflito
{quote} Yeah and tax free too... Ask me, Bitcoin will explode, just by the fact that itīs a limited amount ever available....Bitpennies will be worth thousands....volatility will be there too...not recomended for the weak hands...this is just the beginning...the only danger in my view, is when governments start trying to mess with it....but they will find it hard to shut it down... I mean, you can buy Virgin Airline tickets with Bitcoins....wait till Warren Buffett takes a try....it will skyrocket.... All the big names like Amazon and E Bay are...
i share your view, cuchuflito, and i think most members in this thread do: not a wide-eyed "Bitcoin is too kool for school" and blind to the mania building up, but viewing it as a tradable instrument with massive moves ahead - and, ok, if it succeeds in it's liberating aspect - all the better.

But disregarding it only as a "mania" (and Cesar is not the only one saying that - many detractors do) misses the nature, value and meaning of Bitcoin. Besides, a mania only lasts as long as there are suckers to "buy-in" - a pyramid or Ponzi scheme - but if one can long and short sell a market - where is the mania - there is money in both directions unlike paying a fortune for a perishable Tulip bulb. It is the first fundamentally sound cryptocurrency. Cryptocurrency is not a fad - it will become the de facto standard for all currency within this decade IMO. Bitcoin may not stand the test of time but others will - if need be. Until this simple idea is negated by an even simpler currency idea which can touch the heart of our current Keynesian economic dilemma and invoke human enthusiasm - Bitcoin will keep growing. If it was a fad and a valueless (and threatless) phenomenon, the following would not be the case:

Who Owns the World’s Biggest Bitcoin Wallet? The FBI
http://www.wired.com/wiredenterprise...12/fbi_wallet/
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #714
  • Dec 19, 2013 2:35am Dec 19, 2013 2:35am
Quoting aristotel
{quote} Bitcoin is neither an asset nor a commodity. In fact, bitcoin is nothing. Lady_luck hopes for a microsoft like evolution. However nobody will buy bitcoins to solve or do something, but only to sell them at a higher price to a greater fool. Oh... Ponzi warning on.
hi aristotel,

i understood lady_luck to be refering to the MS chart not it's business plan. Maybe that's what you mean too.

Tell you what, I'm trading the Bitcoin chart (long and short) because it moves clearly and with better pip-range than all the other forex/assets the Fed is dragging round by their ears out there. Part of my income is denominated in Bitcoins and that goes straight through a Bitcoin exchange where it becomes any currency i might want, but i keep it in Bitcoins for tax purposes and anonymously buy what I can in Bitcoins: tech equipment, plane tickets, connectivity. I even struck a deal with a local woman to pay for my weekly boat trips to the mainland in Bitcoins. Those are value transactions. A lot of people in Cyprus saw excellent value when the ECB came and did a cleancut and suited heist over there - an extreme example but it promotes the argument that there are various values - not just a one-trick pony.

It can all go wrong if a state (or nonstate) organisation somewhere cracks the encryption - but that is similar to regular material counterfeit. I like your point about goods being passed on at higher cost to greater fools because that is eactly what has become the case with, say, Gold and I think the old boys at the LME and their dixy chums at JPM have been operating it like that for a century.

But saying Gold or Bitcoin has no value - that shows resentment of the phenomenon but denail of the practical reality. If it does vanish like a noodle - tough luck. But until it does, why wish it away?
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #715
  • Dec 19, 2013 2:50am Dec 19, 2013 2:50am
Quoting lady_luck
{quote} When i had my first computer, it wasn't even windows, it was running with MS-dos 2.1 and that was the top of the top of the technology. Back then someone would have told me about internet, i wouldn't have believe in it, and wouldn't have seen the use for it. Bitcoin is only at the early days, peer to peer is a great concept, may be it will take years or more, and if it never become a technology of it's own, the concept could live on and become the base of an other greater innovation. Back to the charts : today I can see triangles everywhere,...
I am always happy to see a triangle because it conveys 3 pieces of information:

1) A triangle always appears in the wave position prior to a final move

2) The triangle's widest extremes indicate the minimum length of the wave that will thrust from it.

3) the apex formed by the upper and lower triangle TLs indicate the point in time when trend will change direction

So, we can deduce we are in a fourth wave and in BTCUSD we will see a move of at least $200 to the downside from wherever wave E of the triangle terminates. We'll have to wait for more PA to narrow down our options and this triangle at this point is a very positive development.
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #716
  • Dec 19, 2013 3:08am Dec 19, 2013 3:08am
Quoting LarryDarrell
Bitcoin as a concept are interesting, it's value lies in the concept of a fiat currency outside direct national influence. But it will only be successful if it also is used as a currency. At the moment it is just a vehicle for speculation and to dodge demands of nationstates. So you should ask yourself: am I going to use bitcoin as a day-to-day currency? Will mum and dad do that? This is what amazon/ebay are looking at, and they will just create another currency (or already have) which satisfies their objective, to have a currency, a medium of exchange....
hi Larry,


Thoughtful post and well-observed. Yes, the drivers of Bitcoin PA do appear to be mainly fundamental, but Elliott Wave technical analysis forecasts the moves before the fundamentals are even rumours. For example, we've been in agreement here for the past month that a move down to sub $500 levels was due. That has not yet been achieved (yet our wave count forecasts it) so we can only surmise that more bad news is on the horizon - although we don't know what it will be!

As you say, Bitcoin's adoption as currency is critical. In all fairness, it is being used as currency - just not widely - and therein lies the rub. I doubt there will be a watershed moment though - instead i foresee it being an alternative currency that slowly expands and wanes in popular usage over time. However, it's value as a cryptographic store of value has potential and the coming "Bit"storm brewing in the US will see a spectacular surge in price. Why do i say that with confidence? Because the US government, like the Chinese govt, knows the inherent threat posed by a functional "people's" currency, but unlike China the US is embracing Bitcoin and is doing so via Wall Street - as a means of getting a head start in the cryptocurrency domain, as a means of adding an exciting asset class (where stocks and bonds are failing to generate sensation) and as a means of co-opting the threat. Clever. If you can't put the genie back in the bottle then best to befriend it and see what it can do for you.
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #717
  • Dec 19, 2013 3:36am Dec 19, 2013 3:36am
Quoting geeram
{quote} The paper currency too is neither an asset nor a commodity, nevertheless it serves as a medium of exchange. Bitcoin is here to stay but the price bubble may burst and stabilize over time. It has all the requisites of an international currency. Regulators may meddle with it but it will evolve its own standard ultimately.

geeram, you summarize it well. Now it appears a faddish mania and stupid idea to some - perhaps because it wasn't spawned by a known-good authority with financial credentials and a name. Yet, the concept and its arrival was inevitable. The underlying software architecture is deceptively simple for what is essentially a non-destructible "viral" code object. Part of the design is that it should be economically and practically useful to humans who then, just by using Bitcoin, allow it to multiply. It's effects on society will be considerable as this article illustrates:

(i posted this before but here it is again for relevance)

What the arrival of Bitcoin means for society, politics and you
http://www.wired.co.uk/news/archive/.../bitcoin-demos
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #718
  • Dec 19, 2013 4:14am Dec 19, 2013 4:14am
Quoting venzen
{quote} hi Larry,
Thank you for your reaction to this and the other posts. I will certainly follow what happens here. Nevertheless bc is not a trading vehicle for me, real liquidity is way too low, and if just one change of tone in one country can have the effects its having its way too risky for my taste.

I do agree cryptocurrencies are here to stay, and I guess we will all be trading regularly and more comfortable in one or more of these within the next 5-10 years.
Fail better.
  • #719
  • Dec 19, 2013 8:21am Dec 19, 2013 8:21am
Quoting lady_luck
{quote} When i had my first computer, it wasn't even windows, it was running with MS-dos 2.1 and that was the top of the top of the technology. Back then someone would have told me about internet, i wouldn't have believe in it, and wouldn't have seen the use for it. Bitcoin is only at the early days, peer to peer is a great concept, may be it will take years or more, and if it never become a technology of it's own, the concept could live on and become the base of an other greater innovation. Back to the charts : today I can see triangles everywhere,...
I see the bubble peak on microsoft at the peak of dotcom bubble, when Microsoft was already an old company with proved revenues and profits.

You also say that bitcoin is only at its early days and the peak of its bubble was a week ago. The only thing that bitcoin did was to replace the gold bubble and show to the world that there is no need for intrinsic value and that the price of nothing covered in financial scenarios can reach similar levels with those of gold.
  • #720
  • Dec 19, 2013 8:45am Dec 19, 2013 8:45am
Quoting venzen
{quote} hi aristotel,
But saying Gold or Bitcoin has no value - that shows resentment of the phenomenon but denail of the practical reality. If it does vanish like a noodle - tough luck. But until it does, why wish it away?
Hi Venzen,

I agree that it is a lot of fun to buy and sell into bubbles, but I have resentments on anything that is a Ponzi scheme.
I follow your EWA based predictions with real interest and I find them (and you really good, but the practical reality is that gold will be really soon a simple commodity and bitcoin another successful bubble story in the Tulip book.
These are my fundamental predictions.
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