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Bitcoin technical analysis

  • #661
  • Edited 6:07pm Dec 16, 2013 3:44pm | Edited 6:07pm
Quoting Catcher777
{quote} In the morning I was looking at this situation. Possible diamond pattern and break up or down. (on this screen is spread 299.20) {image}
oh I see what you mean by the spread, the spread bet wing the buy and ask, yes you have to be careful don't buy or sale with those spreads, that is why limit orders on BTC-e are good and I don't have my MT4 platform tradable yet......at the time of the drop some news must to come out and cause the panic, so many orders come in at the same time and then the spread increase but yes is too much.......
The Chonchy
  • #662
  • Edited 7:16pm Dec 16, 2013 6:12pm | Edited 7:16pm
wave 3 of C in progress

wave 3 target...

1.618 of wave 1 = 585 (typical for wave 3)
2.618 of wave 1 = 373 (more realistic for a wave C)

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Image1.png Size: 13 KB


lady_luck, double zigzag? i dunno, pls feel free to post your count close to real time as possible. thanks
  • #663
  • Dec 16, 2013 6:22pm Dec 16, 2013 6:22pm
What platforms do you guys use to trade bitcoins ?
  • #664
  • Dec 16, 2013 6:47pm Dec 16, 2013 6:47pm
Quoting GaneshM
What platforms do you guys use to trade bitcoins ?
Hi, we use Btc-e.com

https://btc-e.com/
https://hdbtce.kayako.com/Knowledgeb...t-metatrader-4
If you think you can do a thing or think you can't do a thing, you're right
  • #665
  • Edited 10:46pm Dec 16, 2013 7:28pm | Edited 10:46pm
Good morning everyone

I'm looking at the weekly sma 20 and daily sma 100 at the moment. They seem match with the purple trend channel drew by Venzen, support and fib.

Quoting emptymind
wave 3 of C in progress wave 3 target... 1.618 of wave 1 = 585 (typical for wave 3) 2.618 of wave 1 = 373 (more realistic for a wave C) {image} lady_luck, double zigzag? i dunno, pls feel free to post your count close to real time as possible. thanks
Due to the lack of real support, the length of wave B and the relative volume of coin bought over $800 in the past week i wouldn't be surprise if wave 3of C were extended, so 373 wouldn't surprise me.

I like your chart emptymind, I've been looking at China a lot, they seem to lead the downward movement with bitsamp at the moment. And I get something pretty much identical to you :
(sorry for the draft-looking chart )

http://i.imgur.com/iCNGuXl.png

EDIT : by the look of thing, i think emptymind count is better, my label i and ii should be swap instead of iii and iv.
  • #666
  • Edited Dec 17, 2013 5:24pm Dec 16, 2013 7:34pm | Edited Dec 17, 2013 5:24pm
zooming in on wave 1 of 3 of C....
wave iv in progress

Attached Image
  • #667
  • Dec 16, 2013 8:47pm Dec 16, 2013 8:47pm
.........If at 551 RSI still down there prepare for the bounce up, if it goes true like buther is going to keep going but I spect a bounce here at the 551 double bottom be prepare.......

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: btcusdh4.png Size: 35 KB
The Chonchy
  • #668
  • Dec 17, 2013 4:45am Dec 17, 2013 4:45am
Quoting KCV
{quote} I am not trading Bitcoin so thought not to post anything in this thread. Sometimes people think its easy to say when you don't trade....lol... Don't want anyone in this good thread to think that way. But I am watching the charts..and all the post here...Interesting..... Will try to contribute as much as I can. GL VenZen. KC
KCV,

Thanks for the well-wishes and same for you!

No need to trade to post here. As long as it's Bitcoin related it's relevant. Discussion about mining and alternate coins is welcome because it's interesting and our brains need stimulation.
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #669
  • Dec 17, 2013 5:02am Dec 17, 2013 5:02am
Quoting GaneshM
What platforms do you guys use to trade bitcoins ?
hi Ganesh,

BTC-e seems to be the common exchange and they can be accessed via MT4 platform. I see lady_luck has a different looking chart - not sure about the platform. Also, there are various Open Source platforms available for using Mt.Gox and BTC-e trading APIs. If you want to use MT4 it seems OK.

However, you probably want to use a BTC-e or BTC China account for short selling the market - and going long of course - but you will definitely want to buy actual Bitcoins as we approach the current lows - no use making a great trade on Bitcoin's blow-out to the top and not having any Bitcoins to show for it! Who knows where the price will go in the long run and you don't want to miss out buying at the current prices. Bubble or no bubble - I don't see how price can return below $1000 once it climbs above there.

But don't buy yet - wait for the news to be more negative and our analysis here to start indicating a bottom.
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #670
  • Dec 17, 2013 5:24am Dec 17, 2013 5:24am
Hi everybody and good trading day to you!

I see some new members: Catcher777, Ganesh, welcome.

BTC price is unfolding as we all foresaw it. That's great confirmation of our analysis and wave counts. Thanks everyone for sharing their charts and opinions - in fact - we seem to have consensus in all our analyses (which should actually worry us) but what can i say? BTC is being sold to new lows. There is no chart or analysis I can contribute at this stage, except the following hunch:

Like everyone else I've got my targets where I believe PA might strike bedrock. I have $700 or $600 or even $450. Some of you have a downside target of $373 which is a nice number. However, we should take care not to get bear-trapped here. It would be a shame to have BTC launch and miss buying at the lows. Of course there will be plenty of opportunities to buy all the way up, but having a strategy for getting in near the lows is paramount. I'm not saying doubt your targets or analysis - always believe your analysis - but have a contingency plan for when big players start jacking up the price.

From EW we know that a strong 1st wave to the upside will herald the advance. It will most likely hit $1000 and then retrace back to right around current levels! Once that retrace turns up - that is where one can find the highest probability opportunities as well as the safest R:R entry points. Think about that. Yet, nothing stops one from opening a few small "probe" positions near the lows. We have to concentrate very well down here because we do not want to miss the signs of a trend change. Better to get in a bit late but with higher certainty than to get in too early and sit and watch PA go against you - unable to trade. For now we are still waiting for the bottom to be struck.

If anyone has contrary ideas, please speak up - you might have noticed something the rest of us are missing!
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #671
  • Dec 17, 2013 6:05am Dec 17, 2013 6:05am
People’s Bank of China told more than 10 third-party payment service providers yesterday not to give clearing services to online Bitcoin exchanges
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-1...us-metals-rise

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau...31216_BTC2.jpg
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #672
  • Dec 17, 2013 6:15am Dec 17, 2013 6:15am
Quoting venzen
{quote} hi Ganesh, BTC-e seems to be the common exchange and they can be accessed via MT4 platform. I see lady_luck has a different looking chart - not sure about the platform. Also, there are various Open Source platforms available for using Mt.Gox and BTC-e trading APIs. If you want to use MT4 it seems OK. However, you probably want to use a BTC-e or BTC China account for short selling the market - and going long of course - but you will definitely want to buy actual Bitcoins as we approach the current lows - no use making a great trade on Bitcoin's...
Hi venzen,
lady_luck used only link with live prices:

http://bitcoinwisdom.com/
If you think you can do a thing or think you can't do a thing, you're right
  • #673
  • Dec 17, 2013 7:36am Dec 17, 2013 7:36am
Quoting Catcher777
{quote} Hi venzen, lady_luck used only link with live prices: http://bitcoinwisdom.com/
oh, that explains it!
nice charting site.
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #674
  • Edited 8:08am Dec 17, 2013 7:39am | Edited 8:08am
The plot thickens: BTC China have released their own translation of the PBOC meeting and the angle is different. Chinese authorities are clearly concerned about the interest in Bitcoin and it's threat to official currency, Renminbi. Here's the transcript:
http://imaginarymarkets.com/china-bi...mberg-reports/
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #675
  • Dec 17, 2013 9:11am Dec 17, 2013 9:11am
Quoting venzen
http://imaginarymarkets.com/china-bi...mberg-reports/
Great article, I like the cautious turn of sentences. Something not so surprise after their recent global restriction on other foreign trading : http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702303918804579 106403140993022 and http://www.tradefinancemagazine.com/...ade-flows.html
The little irony being that by denying bitcoin the status of a currency, in the middle of a ban-wave of other form of currency trading seems to actually somehow acknowledge bitcoin as a potential one.

It does sadden me that bitcoin didn't drop more after such a news, indeed it shows that not many care to own it for transaction purpose. Yet an other step forward to achieve in the future.

On a positive note, it can interpreted as their way to say that bitcoin can be virtual gold but not a virtual yuan.

Chart-wise, a drop was overdue, I don't consider revising my price target.
What about you guys ? What's your perspective ?
  • #676
  • Dec 17, 2013 10:44am Dec 17, 2013 10:44am
Quoting lady_luck
{quote} Great article, I like the cautious turn of sentences. Something not so surprise after their recent global restriction on other foreign trading : http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702303918804579 106403140993022 and http://www.tradefinancemagazine.com/...ade-flows.html...

Indeed, seems China is scared, like all governments, of this exploding currency they cannot control. More so, the ability it gives people to move money under the radar - as this short article points out:

http://qz.com/158816/why-china-had-t...lly-regret-it/

I guess the US authorities, who stand to lose more than anyone else from Bitcoin's wider adoption, are banking on the plan that if Wall Street can dominate Bitcoin it can give the US leverage in the cryptocurrency domain... well... let's see.

I also expected the drop to be stronger, yet looking at the previous decline from April to July, the current price action is actually covering large price distances - we just have to be patient and find that eventual bottom with a high degree of certainty. The news surrounding Bitcoin should become mostly negative - then we know the bottom is in.

A low below $400 seems very likely, but i will keep an eye on PA everyday - all day!
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #677
  • Dec 17, 2013 1:21pm Dec 17, 2013 1:21pm
Hello Too All CEO Of Russian Sberbank Endorses Virtual Currencies http://www.coindesk.com/ceo-russian-...al-currencies/
  • #678
  • Edited 5:37pm Dec 17, 2013 5:12pm | Edited 5:37pm
wave iv of 1... i read triangles don't occur in wave 2. this must be wave iv of 1 of 3 of C
Attached Image
  • #679
  • Dec 17, 2013 8:19pm Dec 17, 2013 8:19pm
Quoting emptymind
wave iv of 1... i read triangles don't occur in wave 2. this must be wave iv of 1 of 3 of C
Hello
I don't know if it's significant but I can't see clear triangles on BTC/CNY.
Which bring me to an little question, do you think I'm wrong to focus mostly on China charts at the moment, based only on the assumption of them making the first move ?
  • #680
  • Dec 18, 2013 12:04am Dec 18, 2013 12:04am
Quoting lady_luck
{quote} Hello I don't know if it's significant but I can't see clear triangles on BTC/CNY. Which bring me to an little question, do you think I'm wrong to focus mostly on China charts at the moment, based only on the assumption of them making the first move ?

you are right. that was no triangle
usually there is a macd divergence if you compare wave 3 and 5. i have to change my count a little

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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the most destructive wave 3 of 3 is in progress
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