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XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

  • #30,481
  • Dec 16, 2013 5:50am Dec 16, 2013 5:50am
Gold is shutting down ahead of the London Lunch Hour when it turns against it's gamblers and returns to it's handlers. Wait for the sneaky U-turn... smart money just got into the market a couple mins ago.
You win, you lose. All else is history. The future does not exist.
  • #30,482
  • Dec 16, 2013 5:51am Dec 16, 2013 5:51am
A break & Hold below 1228.50 gets Gold to 1223............
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Money Makes Money
  • #30,483
  • Dec 16, 2013 5:57am Dec 16, 2013 5:57am
The two main factors in the mid term bear run of Gold as I see it are as such:

1. Fundamentally - the market is prepped, priced in -mostly- and ready for QE to end. QE as a whole was part of the reason for the move to 1920,
as it creates inflation. (see post one for more detailed reasoning on this topic) Gold is probably one of if not the best barometers of US inflation to date.
Thus, when inflation increases or fears of it, Gold rises. Fundamentally QE THREE should have been bullish for gold but it was all the latter. The fed has countless times now announced "tapering" yet nothing happens, thus, I am lead to reason, "tapering" is mostly priced into Gold, while I still maintain on the actual announcement, there will be a fall in price.

2. Technically: As with any instrument, after a substantial and long, rise, there is a correction in price, thus a fall. We all should know that the price will not ever go to zero, so, 1920 hit, 2000 barrier. 1000 was a barrier or extreme resistance for years, price broke and looked back to 1050 sealing the deal, so at this point Gold and more so Silver have almost fully corrected to the uptrend long term channels. Gold may have a bit more to go, yet, 1050 is strong, as well as other various supports and up trend lines.

Printing money that isn't worth the paper it's printed on is never going to "solve" all the geopolitical financial problems, it is merely a band aid.

Quoting The Rhodie
Some news: The Federal Reserve faces a tough decision at its meeting this week as an improving economy builds the case for the winding down of monetary stimulus, but Goldman Sachs says the central bank is likely to hold off from tapering its $85 billion monthly bond-buying program until next year. "The case for tapering on the basis of the data since October is mixed at best. The strongest argument in favor is the improvement in the trend rate of payroll growth to the 200,000 level," Goldman Sachs economists wrote in a note late Friday. "However,...
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #30,484
  • Dec 16, 2013 5:58am Dec 16, 2013 5:58am
Quoting LarryLU
{quote} I do hope you are right, so I can fill more short trades. {image}
Just use simple support and resistance levels to base your trades off of right now.

Nothing more nothing less, until the new year.

Still a sideways market as long as 1200 remains support.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #30,485
  • Dec 16, 2013 6:03am Dec 16, 2013 6:03am
Sideways range remains intact. There is a bunch of news to mind this week though.

See last line in calendar pic, FOMC...
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XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #30,486
  • Dec 16, 2013 6:04am Dec 16, 2013 6:04am
Quoting XTrade
{quote} Just use simple support and resistance levels to base your trades off of right now. Nothing more nothing less, until the new year. Still a sideways market as long as 1200 remains support.
Yes, ranging for long time... And at least it wont change before this week's FOMC meeting.

But bulls wont come in until we see price below 1225, just like last Friday and days before.
  • #30,487
  • Dec 16, 2013 6:07am Dec 16, 2013 6:07am
Quoting XTrade
The two main factors in the mid term bear run of Gold as I see it are as such: 1. Fundamentally - the market is prepped, priced in -mostly- and ready for QE to end. QE as a whole was part of the reason for the move to 1920, as it creates inflation. (see post one for more detailed reasoning on this topic) Gold is probably one of if not the best barometers of US inflation to date. Thus, when inflation increases or fears of it, Gold rises. Fundamentally QE THREE should have been bullish for gold but it was all the latter. The fed has countless times...
I agree. I think you got that bang on target there. The biggest problem is that they are using a band-aid instead of bone reset, stitches and plaster cast with 6 months bed rest followed by physiotherapy for 6 weeks. In english: -

Stop printing money and repair the policies that caused it. Stop spending by 50% for 6 months and slowly buid up expenditure over a 6 week period to 80% of original until marjkets adjust.
You win, you lose. All else is history. The future does not exist.
  • #30,488
  • Dec 16, 2013 6:08am Dec 16, 2013 6:08am
I'm thinking to buy sliver 19.35 - if we make it there, it looks like a state of indecision... it has been dancing over 19.30 ( Gold didn't even make it to 1225 , instead 1230 which is also a support level ) But if it pick a direction and inforce it , it will break towards that direction. I will be conservative & caring on this one.

For a bit of weekly target , i'm kind of eyeing 19.0X level - things could get started to the upside from there. If not, then down side risk follows!
"It's the Margin, Stupid."
  • #30,489
  • Dec 16, 2013 6:09am Dec 16, 2013 6:09am
Dear guys
I cannot understand what is going on.
if we are day or week trader we can comment daily or weekly but if we are watching at horizon so we should comment or change our thought rarely.

I think I cannot trace every news that released in public. and I believe there are more secret news that many people cannot reach them in time.
so I mine my charts and decide in which wave I can surf.

now I think charts says every thing is in short position and we need time to reach targets, and for long I think I should wait.
good luck
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  • #30,490
  • Dec 16, 2013 6:12am Dec 16, 2013 6:12am
Quoting Rebels
Dear guys I cannot understand what is going on. if we are day or week trader we can comment daily or weekly but if we are watching at horizon so we should comment or change our thought rarely. I think I cannot trace every news that released in public. and I believe there are more secret news that many people cannot reach them in time. so I mine my charts and decide in which wave I can surf. now I think charts says every thing is in short position and we need time to reach targets, and for long I think I should wait. good luck
Gold looks set to go short nicely from here. My opinion and your risk if you follow advice. If gold breaks upwards past 1231.1 then it must continue trending past 1232.4 to be bullish today.
You win, you lose. All else is history. The future does not exist.
  • #30,491
  • Dec 16, 2013 6:15am Dec 16, 2013 6:15am
Quoting The Rhodie
Gold is shutting down ahead of the London Lunch Hour when it turns against it's gamblers and returns to it's handlers. Wait for the sneaky U-turn... smart money just got into the market a couple mins ago.

It seems undecided to me. Do you see a chance for a cheeky long scalp?
  • #30,492
  • Dec 16, 2013 6:16am Dec 16, 2013 6:16am
Quoting The Rhodie
{quote} Gold looks set to go short nicely from here. My opinion and your risk if you follow advice.
no mate
at this time I said go short:


Quoting Rebels
{quote} as I said before Ithink it's time to short Price 1234 TP1 1225 (90 Pips) TP2 1217 (170 Pips) TP3 1208 (260 Pips) SL 1240.0 (60 Pips) good luck

but now you should consider your risk and money management
good luck
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  • #30,493
  • Dec 16, 2013 6:21am Dec 16, 2013 6:21am
Quoting XTrade
Sideways range remains intact. There is a bunch of news to mind this week though. See last line in calendar pic, FOMC... {image} {image}
EUR is going to print a new high for 2013, which I think will push cable to a new high also. More close to your 1.8 target
  • #30,494
  • Dec 16, 2013 6:36am Dec 16, 2013 6:36am
SL triggered @ 1232.5. Such a strong pull down of USD.
  • #30,495
  • Dec 16, 2013 6:38am Dec 16, 2013 6:38am
Quoting KiwiOz
A break & Hold below 1228.50 gets Gold to 1223............ {image}
No break, No hold, No trade ..Yet.
Money Makes Money
  • #30,496
  • Dec 16, 2013 6:40am Dec 16, 2013 6:40am
above 1337-42 gold will be bullish..t
  • #30,497
  • Dec 16, 2013 6:43am Dec 16, 2013 6:43am
Quoting KiwiOz
{quote} No break, No hold, No trade ..Yet.
what is your view on gold and silver on h1 or h4?
share your view for this week... because of fed meeting i cant judge it..............
  • #30,498
  • Dec 16, 2013 6:43am Dec 16, 2013 6:43am
Small Short @ 1234, betting on the breath of strong push of EUR and cable. Target 1231-1230, SL 1235
  • #30,499
  • Dec 16, 2013 6:45am Dec 16, 2013 6:45am
Quoting The Rhodie
Price is artificially supported by the richest reservs in the world: European bankers with US invested interests. Gold is about to go long again...
Why is it that you mentioned "price is artificially supported" and at the same time mentioning "Gold is about to go long". What is the corelation?
The true fact is market doesn't care, risk mgt is important.
  • #30,500
  • Dec 16, 2013 6:47am Dec 16, 2013 6:47am
new member here guys - i will be posting some of my trades live (gold only) - no charts to back it up, based purely on a neural net forecasting model (thread owner, pl let me know if that is no acceptable.

currently am short xauusd from 1234, targeting 1226.70, sl 1235.25
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