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Bitcoin technical analysis

  • #641
  • Dec 16, 2013 3:32am Dec 16, 2013 3:32am
Cameron Winklevoss: Bitcoin Might Hit...
http://mashable.com/2013/12/16/camer...evoss-bitcoin/

not the most reputable source of prediction or analysis, but worth a read.
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #642
  • Dec 16, 2013 3:46am Dec 16, 2013 3:46am
Quoting lady_luck
Hi Venzen, Thank you for your answer I see the problem with my count, and my chart is pretty unclear in it's detail, but i was still considering it because this all downward move has really been lacking pressure until now (so does the present counter-trend). If i'm not mistaken, up to now, it looks like a flat 3-3-5, mostly because of this B wave price target. Which was the reason why I was considering fitting it as part of a larger zig-zag correction. I was considering the ATH as the top of a wave 1 of V (if we got a super-cycle...) and the...

i understand what you're saying - good EW sense, BTW The failure to drop with conviction (as we know downward C waves to do) was worrying me also... there is really a lot of buying happening anywhere below 900 and the bears just can't tear it down, as you say.

What I suspect is that the BTCUSD has a diagonal signature (as opposed to impulsive) at the larger degree. So what we have unfolding in this C wave might be a diagonal - i.e. 5 waves down but each of the 5 waves consists of 3 subwaves. This diagonal signature may cascade down to say sub-minuette degree and then suddenly at Micro degree we see regular impulses. This is a phenomenon I've seen in Gold and in the USD (and EurUsd) charts. I don't mean a leading or an ending diagonal - i mean diagonal 3-3-3-3-3 -- a wave formation that Frost and Prechter do not discuss in Elliott Wave Principle, but it exists!

Let's see what we get, i notice some red candles on the chart!
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #643
  • Dec 16, 2013 4:52am Dec 16, 2013 4:52am
Quoting venzen
"Respect they fellow trader" is paramount.
I made a joke a few days ago and then only replied to others' jokes.
The result is my fully disclaimer on the topic.

And, I cannot stop from conceptualizing the image of an "investor" at 1200$ per bitcoin all the way down to a positive number that allows one to determine its logarithm, but all these I will share on a more proper topic, not Bitcoin 'cause I was talking about bitcoin concept, I mean not only its price in a global Ponzi scheme economy, whatever... sorry.
  • #644
  • Dec 16, 2013 6:41am Dec 16, 2013 6:41am
What the arrival of Bitcoin means for society, politics and you

http://www.wired.co.uk/news/archive/.../bitcoin-demos

Vires in Numeris, people. Vires in Numeris
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #645
  • Edited 7:58am Dec 16, 2013 6:44am | Edited 7:58am
Quoting aristotel
{quote} I made a joke a few days ago and then only replied to others' jokes. The result is my fully disclaimer on the topic. And, I cannot stop from conceptualizing the image of an "investor" at 1200$ per bitcoin all the way down to a positive number that allows one to determine its logarithm, but all these I will share on a more proper topic, not Bitcoin 'cause I was talking about bitcoin concept, I mean not only its price in a global Ponzi scheme economy, whatever... sorry.

aristotel,

Thank you for your respectful reply - in that spirit you are always welcome here. I think I was so busy being defensive against frequent abuse we take here over Bitcoin that I didn't pick up on the humour
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #646
  • Dec 16, 2013 7:55am Dec 16, 2013 7:55am
Thanks Venzen, I appreciate your analyze a lot, it's always very open minded and has a lot of depth.
I like the idea of the cascade of "3". I had a quick look into it and found some pretty strange charts, with a succession of 7 waves of 3 sub-waves , and someone even mention 9 of them... Never thought of that before !!

Hmm, BTC/CNY looks scary at the moment. Is there any real support after 4500cny but before 2700cny ?
Because, even if 3800cny was attempted twice, it was just by the fifth of a fifth.
And if I'm not mistaken, H4 CNY now shows. a complete wave i of ... 1 (or may be of 3??).
  • #647
  • Dec 16, 2013 10:12am Dec 16, 2013 10:12am
Quoting lady_luck
Thanks Venzen, I appreciate your analyze a lot, it's always very open minded and has a lot of depth. I like the idea of the cascade of "3". I had a quick look into it and found some pretty strange charts, with a succession of 7 waves of 3 sub-waves , and someone even mention 9 of them... Never thought of that before !! Hmm, BTC/CNY looks scary at the moment. Is there any real support after 4500cny but before 2700cny ? Because, even if 3800cny was attempted twice, it was just by the fifth of a fifth. And if I'm not mistaken, H4 CNY now shows. a complete...

lady_luck,

Thanks for your kind words. With EW it's always about seeing the potentials (both bullish and bearish) that exist at any given time. It's easy to see a pattern that's not there and "force" a count but that's what the wisdom of always having an alternate count on your chart is all about!

Wow, BTCCNY is scary - I've never looked at that chart - there are more gaps than candles! I see what you mean: there's no visible support in between 4000 and 3200. I guess a drop through there might see BTCUSD at its chart's equivalent level of 700. Buy orders above current levels have all but dried up and I haven't seen that for a few weeks. I am concerned about market buyers though - not to pre-empt it - but there are many more big money players around now and they might strike at any moment. However, the wave count says more downside till we see 5 waves complete, so "vigilant but not anxious" is going to be my motto!
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #648
  • Edited 11:40am Dec 16, 2013 11:08am | Edited 11:40am
possible price channels:

http://ubuntuone.com/1OChXxgbiCb2u44gFKbypf
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #649
  • Dec 16, 2013 11:48am Dec 16, 2013 11:48am
BTC: 2012 till present
XAU: 1800 till present

http://ubuntuone.com/7417nULlNMTFc0eklgu0fs
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #650
  • Dec 16, 2013 12:50pm Dec 16, 2013 12:50pm
Quoting venzen
{quote} well well, KCV and welcome! Hope you're well and glad to know you see the bigger cryptocurrency picture. Some people here mine (and your choice of Litecoin is good since Bitcoin will soon only be mined via super computing) and all of us trade. I remember your charts, why don't you post us one of the BTCUSD (MtGox) ?
I am not trading Bitcoin so thought not to post anything in this thread.

Sometimes people think its easy to say when you don't trade....lol...

Don't want anyone in this good thread to think that way.

But I am watching the charts..and all the post here...Interesting.....

Will try to contribute as much as I can.

GL VenZen.
KC
  • #651
  • Dec 16, 2013 12:53pm Dec 16, 2013 12:53pm
Quoting venzen
{quote} I also thought to say that but I had to welcome the man first!
LOL....I always like traders with a good Sense of Humor...

  • #652
  • Dec 16, 2013 1:57pm Dec 16, 2013 1:57pm
Quoting KCV
{quote} Lol...That's a joke is it ???? .... What I meant was do you Mine Bitcoin or Trade Bitcoin..Lol...

Of course it was a joke KCV......welcome to the tread KCV, mining is a bit hard lately, mine rigs are too expensive or cost effective with the electricity and all that.......but trading is good......all you have to do is follow the money on the bounces.......welcome, good luck and be safe, just spend what you can afford to lose........then open a demo at BTC-e on MT4 and tray again until you buy when there is blood on the streets and sale at the sound of the trumpets, like a friend of mine told me once.......
The Chonchy
  • #653
  • Dec 16, 2013 2:05pm Dec 16, 2013 2:05pm
Hello all. I'm watching this super thread for some time.
Yesterday I finally installed the BTC-e demo.

Here are some screens of today. Nice hits S/R. (blue and red lines).
I trade Sonic R System from this portal: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=114792 . On the screens is the template used with this system.
The green line is a possible short entry.

Today, around 14 -15 GMT was spread to 550. This is normal?

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: BtcUsd_M15_16.12.13.png Size: 64 KB

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: BtcUsd_H1_16.12.13.png Size: 105 KB
If you think you can do a thing or think you can't do a thing, you're right
  • #654
  • Dec 16, 2013 2:39pm Dec 16, 2013 2:39pm
Quoting KCV
{quote} LOL....I always like traders with a good Sense of Humor...
then you are at home with me and venzen buddy........
The Chonchy
  • #655
  • Dec 16, 2013 2:42pm Dec 16, 2013 2:42pm
Quoting Catcher777
Hello all. I'm watching this super thread for some time. Yesterday I finally installed the BTC-e demo. Here are some screens of today. Nice hits S/R. (blue and red lines). I trade Sonic R System from this portal: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=114792 . On the screens is the template used with this system. The green line is a possible short entry. Today, around 14 -15 GMT was spread to 550. This is normal? {image} {image}
wellcome Catcher777. nice charts.....I don't get your question about the spread to 550......
The Chonchy
  • #656
  • Dec 16, 2013 2:45pm Dec 16, 2013 2:45pm
Quoting venzen
BTC: 2012 till present XAU: 1800 till present {image}
The Chonchy
  • #657
  • Dec 16, 2013 2:47pm Dec 16, 2013 2:47pm
Quoting venzen
possible price channels: {image}

yep I will say 373 is the bottom of the channel......


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: btcusddaily.png Size: 35 KB


also this weekly fibo 23.1 is as good as any to bounce up again.....

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: btcusdweekly.png Size: 29 KB
The Chonchy
  • #658
  • Dec 16, 2013 2:54pm Dec 16, 2013 2:54pm
.......This one hours Time frame, show the pull back to the blue moving average 5 to them keep going to the 551, so this is a good place to short again or add to your short.......


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: btcusdh1.png Size: 27 KB
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: btcusdh4.png Size: 34 KB
The Chonchy
  • #659
  • Dec 16, 2013 2:55pm Dec 16, 2013 2:55pm
Quoting chonchy
{quote} wellcome Catcher777. nice charts.....I don't get your question about the spread to 550......
On my creens in the upper left corner of the spread is 0.90 and 3.00 (variable spread). I saw but also zoom in up to 550. That seems to me a lot.
If you think you can do a thing or think you can't do a thing, you're right
  • #660
  • Edited 3:34pm Dec 16, 2013 3:20pm | Edited 3:34pm
Quoting chonchy
........Some is going to happens tonight, or it will go up and break the magenta trend line or it will drop to look for the other trend line, but is not going to keep ranging anymore, is in betwing a hard place and a rock here, the chocolate ema 30 and the magenta upper trend line, it keeps ranging betwing the 50% fibo and the 61.8 but I think it will break somewhere today, I have a feeling...... {image}
In the morning I was looking at this situation. Possible diamond pattern and break up or down.
(on this screen is spread 299.20)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: BtcUsd_H4_Diamond_16.12.13.png Size: 63 KB
If you think you can do a thing or think you can't do a thing, you're right
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