XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

2 weeks of Gold rising before FOMC meeting

My guess is this has something to do with end of year rebalancing.

cleared few buys

if look at TF D1, looks like that morning star is about to occur, if so then, the bull has arrived.

Wow, Some big moves recently.

That was some short squeeze.

Currently Short 1248:

New recent low made, now price is right back where it was last week....

Pretty soon, if not now, it's going to be time to either stop trading until new year,
take positions that you will ride and support.
or just scalp / daytrade. IMO.

Obvious strong horizontal resistance at 1251-1254 that stopped the bull move for now, the question is will that area hold on the next attempt?

Worthy of a buy order at 1253 with a tight stop, targeting 1270.

First though I favour a retrace to 1237-1240 hence short from 1248.

Gold has been a smart buy for the current indices downturn today but is it only going to be short lived?

Keep a eye on the US GDP tomorrow and US Employment data Friday. If NFP is close to 200k, you can see a big drop maybe breaking 1200.

Well, my friend. Where to begin...
Todays event was what is known as a Dragon-king event and had a singularity that bagan the day before at 10h33 GMT with the morning gold price fix in London. Here's the clues retrospectively:

AM price fix was set and the PM price fix were set at the same levels by the markets. Gold had very low volume and I noticed that the volume was very low. This tells me that the big players were advised to stay out of the markets; hence the lowish volume of trade. When there is low volume the price moves very easily by speculators in "paper" gold, but also very erratically. It means that with the big players away the price can be moved with little intervention by the market movers using harmonics. Anyone who knows anything about stringed musical instument will know what harmonics is. Effectively it is like rocking a boat sideways in opposite directions until it tips over on purpose. Here was the beginning of that process: ( iwas wondering what I was looking at)




It takes timing and frequency matched to the markets to have that effect on it. as is visible a few times here:



Interesetingly the pattern was visible before this bit I picked up on, so see if you can spot the pattern earlier in the day. as highlighted in this ellipse.



As a demonstration of that principle, there hae been some recent studies in digital circuits that demonstrate the creation of dragon-king events like today's one. All it took was some harmonised inputs to rock the boat and make the market move away times with an expected volume changing event like an expected announcement. How can we spot them? Usually you cannot. I did today by accident because I look for patterns in chaos. The markets are not chaos. They are very ordered aand managed by millions of traders and players who agree to use the rules to their advantage, sefishly. Fear and greed. You are either a shark or shark sh*t. Look at the patterns that developed over time and tell me that what I saw was rubbish. The above image shows that there were warnings well in advance of the move if I knew what they meant. Now I will not forget them. Ever. I lost money too, but made up a lot of it by recognising what was going on. These are rare events, but always when a system is at a critical point of failure and the failure point was the cash value of gold becoming less than production costs and risked shutting down every gold mine worldwide including the South African Rand Reserve mines. Anglo American is pulling out of South Africa because they know that gold is soon going to become too expensive to mine in South Africa. When a multi-national says that, take notice.

I hope this expo of pattern recognition has been informative and useful to you in trhe future. It doesn't tell you where the price will end as the markets do not end. It does however give you an indication on the direction it may take which is as good as money in the bank if you recognise it and analyse it correctly before it happens. The hard part is mind-reading the market based on it's history. The more experince of the patterns you have, the more likely you are to recognise what it means. May your trade trade be in the right direction. :nerd:

Interesting stuff The Rhodie..

Thanks.

you're welcome. This is a new area of study and is avante garde, so here's an explanation that yo will see is genuine and informative. Complete with references. http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/20...-dragon-kings/

Actually, I have been thinking about this type of event for over 2 weeks, but until I came across an article in a magzine and had no idea that there was a name for it. We are very familiar with the patterns that the chart shows in the article in this trading line, so study hard. See what you can make of patterns and the results of them. See how often they occur. If you read back through my posts you will notice that I mentioned black swan events and dragon kings. I noticed something was different last week when there was talk of prices crashing down to a region I had estimated to be 1180 on my own through this type of pattern recognition. There is something in it, but I have no idea how much value it is to trading as yet. Time will tell.

Maybe you need not scratch and look outside the charts to see the bigger picture... http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...64#post7135464

Silver

Yes, news tomorrow as LarryLU, pointed out will move the market if skewed enough.

Yet, that minor push off the Aussie open was questionable to me.

No real result, and a failed attempt to break 1200 yet again.

Bear trap? Then gold bounces back to par....

These dips are getting bought. It's just a matter of how much you can withstand until profit and what your agenda is.

Shorts and Longs seem to be both enjoying the same profit range with a downside or really at this point sideways bias.
It doesn't seem that any party is willing to go full force as of yet. End of year.

I would say the risk remains to the north for the shorts. Many were likely surprised by this move.
Likewise, the bulls will let the bears push the price down to more favorable levels for positioning long.

we will see.

Hey Olu,

Could do both, retest line, shed some price or move down, then, with newly attracted buyers, stop. reverse and break.

and yet another chart with a study and some thoughts.



After some consideration I wondered if this is a potential view of the market postion trades and their entry into the markets and the size of the positions. This sort of view is what we are not used to seeing at all. It may be a load of cow dung, but anyone got a better idea why we can see a regularity to the patterns that shows a chaotic system that is not so chaotic? What is chaotic is the lack of timing integration of the shapes. That makes me think that maybe there is a correlation between the players in the market not communicating. There is an astounding number of shapes that are repetitive. This indicates to me that it is a single player repeating the same entry over time. US companie are forbiddeen from placing orders into the markets that make it move more than 5% so they tend to place opposing trades in a hedging strategy. with the volume of lots they use, removing 5% on 1 side of the hedge is enough to make them a profit in a trend set by smaller players and then hold that position... until a dragon-king. Then they have to make a big change to keep it stable and effectively fracture the market. Anyway, that's my explanation for one possibility. Any other ideas out there to countertact this train of thought? I would love to know. The big move could have been a Reserve Bank size sale or purchase with an announcement to supersize the effect and mask the source.

Target hit :|)

Now Long 1238 with tight stop.

This looks very interesting, it would be interesting to test out and see if it performs.

IMO, the move up was due to new, or so we think, smart money used the news to make a massive blast upwards, they have completed the position gathering stage and now are ready to maybe move price up a little.

I was watching tick charts last night just for the fun and seen this, looks like banks trading high frequency.

Looks like they where building short positions, this was just before the drop earlier today. Anyone have an explanation for it?

is there any better investment than gold? surely the banks have been trying to supress its price and investors have left gold cause maybe the price was a bubble for stocks trading,
what if stocks are topping, lets be careful but its great to see how gold reacted today.

5 years ago china had about 1trillion usd debt now its about 4 trillions and they dont wanna save more, when the market agree gold is too low, where fiat currency will be directed at?