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Bitcoin technical analysis

  • #201
  • Nov 25, 2013 3:01pm Nov 25, 2013 3:01pm
.......I agree the next wave is up, retest this $823.25 on BTC-e...... http://bitcoinwisdom.com/markets/btce/btcusd

anyway to post the chart here instead of the link? sorry.......
The Chonchy
  • #202
  • Edited 4:13pm Nov 25, 2013 3:11pm | Edited 4:13pm
Venzen, Thank you for this in depth post. I hope it will help others as it did myself to understand how essentially this is just a web based "fiat" currency.
YET, With great trading potential,

I mean, damn, with those swings, this is a swing trader's paradise.

Yet I still don't know enough about it to trade it successfully. I certainly LOVE the idea of a monetary or TRADE / BARTER system off BASE from any government.

If you read what I posted about NORFED and the Liberty Dollar, you can see how quickly the fed took him down. Yet they are two different beasts.

This is why I love gold so much, not just for it's sheer beauty and scarcity, but as a precious metal, with limited supply. People literally go to the ends of the earth with huge "mining" or excavation equipment, just to meet demand. MOSTLY THOUGH IT IS ACCEPTED WORLDWIDE, for cash, goods, service, barter, etxxx.

I would like to see BTC succeed. Yet as you said it's only worth what people MUTUALLY agree to give and take goods, services and payment with.

Liberty Dollar failed because - Part 1 he had a nominal negotiable value of 1 USD. Thus, initially creating or faking US currency in a sense.

This is FAR different and FAR more complex.

Quoting venzen
{quote} XTrade, I've now read all the posts up to here and i think we all have agreement that this is a teriffic trade instrument. Not for speculating one's life-savings on but still for speculating - with what you can invest according to your own risk and money management plan. As for the currency part, Chonchy says it very well: IF that aspect of the Bitcoin comes to fruition then it will be a terrific victory in the face of the banksters and technocrats. Meanwhile, it's good for trading. In response to your post quoted above, let me try and clarify...
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #203
  • Nov 25, 2013 3:20pm Nov 25, 2013 3:20pm
Here you are losing me. I do understand "somewhat" the prospect of "mining" bitcoins.

so are you saying that once enough buyers, come in to take say a 25 bitcoin, the algorithm finds this and produces or Mines an actual trade-able device?

Sorry guys if I am off topic, but I do think some more of the creation and way this operates needs to be posted, especially before suggesting to other to put money into
cybercash.

I have worked on computers for over 20 years doing design work, then the latter part of about 5 years trading, before that all my dealings were cash in hand buying and selling silver and gold.

There are so many implausibilities to what this substance of BTC is.

Yet, as a trading vehicle - sure I'll use it, when I can exploit (scalp) it or take a long on a long term trade.

Quoting venzen
As an experiment I installed a CPU miner on my dual-core laptop... 8 kiloHash/s I would earn 0.006 Bitcoin after 9 months!) However, pass the job to a Nvidia GeForce GPU and the rate jumps to 600 MegaHash/sec One of those USB block eruptors does something like 1.6 GigaHash/sec. You're literally rolling your own money. Some of the mining rigs are well powerful: {image} i assume the sysadministrator here is more disciplined with his sysconfig than his server room tidyness {image}
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #204
  • Nov 25, 2013 3:21pm Nov 25, 2013 3:21pm
Quoting venzen
M15 Triangle Once the triangle completes, we can expect a wave up to the vicinity of 1000. Whether it will reach target or not remains to be seen. A strong profit taking sell-off could happen before PA even gets to 1000. Alternatively, the market could hold out - eager anticipation for price to go beyond 1000 may see some buy orders triggered just beyond 1000 and a spike to the upside. That is when I'd expect to see a sell-off bring price back to 450/500 edit: on looking at the chart below, my count on the last wave up from 450 seems to be skipping...
agree 1000 must be retested.....

venzen do you trade with Mt.Gox and your charts are from them or from here

http://bitcoinwisdom.com/markets/mtgox/btcusd

they have a talk section that appears when you click on send feedback that is good......
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=190722.380
The Chonchy
  • #205
  • Nov 25, 2013 3:39pm Nov 25, 2013 3:39pm
Quoting XTrade
Here you are losing me. I do understand "somewhat" the prospect of "mining" bitcoins. so are you saying that once enough buyers, come in to take say a 25 bitcoin, the algorithm finds this and produces or Mines an actual trade-able device? Sorry guys if I am off topic, but I do think some more of the creation and way this operates needs to be posted, especially before suggesting to other to put money into cybercash. I have worked on computers for over 20 years doing design work, then the latter part of about 5 years trading, before that all my dealings...
.......Hello Xtrade, nice to meet you, .......

From what I know the creator of this system of bitcoin, planed to create complicated mathematical equations to make the difficulty of the wallets hard to crack or to make the system stronger everytime a problem is solved making the difficulty increase every two weeks, why 21 milliom bitcoins? well so resolving them become more difficult and for ended the bitcoin more valuable, just like gold increase in value over the years, as is more rear or scarse, but this is what I know, maybe I'm wrong and someone here can correct me, and excuse my second language, the math equations resolving task is like the task of pulling the gold out of the earth, you need fast powerful machines to extract the bitcoins out of the system, just like gold is extracted from earth, with machines and investment in man and power, this is the same, man and power is invested in the creation of a bitcoin and with a limited amount of bitcoins the task become a job and a hard one, see if you can find at the moment a machine that will be cost effective to create one bitcoin? electricity, hardware and time are needed to create one bitcoin,

........this is the best way I have found to explain it....... http://ewoah.com/technology/a-very-g...er-guide/#What This is Bitcoin Mining.........
The Chonchy
  • #206
  • Nov 25, 2013 3:48pm Nov 25, 2013 3:48pm
Quoting XTrade
Here you are losing me. I do understand "somewhat" the prospect of "mining" bitcoins. so are you saying that once enough buyers, come in to take say a 25 bitcoin, the algorithm finds this and produces or Mines an actual trade-able device? Sorry guys if I am off topic, but I do think some more of the creation and way this operates needs to be posted, especially before suggesting to other to put money into cybercash. I have worked on computers for over 20 years doing design work, then the latter part of about 5 years trading, before that all my dealings...

.......I believe people are tired of the manipulations of the banks, but people are not ready yet to hang around town with a bunch of gold in their pockets to buy a car, or a house, so bitcoin could be easily adopted by a car dealer to sale cars or a real state agent to sale houses........

http://www.digitaltrends.com/cars/te...-300-bitcoins/

http://rt.com/news/house-for-sale-bitcoins-781/

http://ca.news.yahoo.com/blogs/daily...160319190.html
The Chonchy
  • #207
  • Nov 25, 2013 5:01pm Nov 25, 2013 5:01pm
Greetings! Chonchy!

Nice to meet you too.

Yes, I understand and your "second language" ENGLISH is quite well.

In any case, we are still discussing the matter of creating a currency if you will, for trade and barter purposes as of yet. I see no chance that the FED will adopt bitcoin.
NOR, do I really care what the fed adopts or does not, because as of late their best practices are taking loans, printing money and buying bonds. LOL.

SO, that leaves me with more questions, who was, the creator, perhaps I have to read back again, because I think "VZN" had posted it. Yet it seems there are many discrepancies depending on bitcoins. I shared a link where one "miner" was minting physical bitcoins with code.

To make it simple and perhaps I need correction,

IF a certain amount of people place a speculative "buy" order on the "various bitcoin exchanges" then a computer algorithm recognizes this and "mines" the data to produce an actual agreed or "fiat" digital currency at a rate at that said time for the buyers, now that they have that specific BTC "stamp" if you will at a certain "strike" price, should BTC rise in value from their said buy price they will indeed be in profit??!!?

Just trying to simplify the whole creation of the process of creation.

:Thumbsup:
XT-

PS. Perhaps mr V would like to elaborate in simplified terms here.

Quoting chonchy
{quote} .......Hello Xtrade, nice to meet you, ....... From what I know the creator of this system of bitcoin, planed to create complicated mathematical equations to make the difficulty of the wallets hard to crack or to make the system stronger everytime a problem is solved making the difficulty increase every two weeks, why 21 milliom bitcoins? well so resolving them become more difficult and for ended the bitcoin more valuable, just like gold increase in value over the years, as is more rear or scarse, but this is what I know, maybe I'm wrong...
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #208
  • Nov 25, 2013 11:34pm Nov 25, 2013 11:34pm
Quoting XTrade
Here you are losing me. I do understand "somewhat" the prospect of "mining" bitcoins. so are you saying that once enough buyers, come in to take say a 25 bitcoin, the algorithm finds this and produces or Mines an actual trade-able device? Sorry guys if I am off topic, but I do think some more of the creation and way this operates needs to be posted, especially before suggesting to other to put money into cybercash. I have worked on computers for over 20 years doing design work, then the latter part of about 5 years trading, before that all my dealings...
XTrade, if you're familiar with IT then the following link probably explains mining and the Bitcoin virtual existence better than I could:

http://bitcoin.org/en/how-it-works

Another link that may give you an idea of the scope of "mining" activity is this one:

http://www.mining.com/infographic-bi...-system-97257/

This week is interesting for Bitcoin trade because price has just completed a triangle and is moving up in the next (possibly last) wave of advance. Whatever happens around $1000 is going to be insightful.

BTW - your post at XAU/XAG re: Gold in context... good piece of writing. I like your calm longterm perspective - an attitude that easily vanishes when one day-trades. Please don't stop posting "reality checks"

(geek note: this is posted from my linux command line browser "elinks")
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #209
  • Nov 26, 2013 12:05am Nov 26, 2013 12:05am
Quoting XTrade
... To make it simple and perhaps I need correction, IF a certain amount of people place a speculative "buy" order on the "various bitcoin exchanges" then a computer algorithm recognizes this and "mines" the data to produce an actual agreed or "fiat" digital currency at a rate at that said time for the buyers, now that they have that specific BTC "stamp" if you will at a certain "strike" price, should BTC rise in value from their said buy price they will indeed be in profit??!!? Just trying to simplify the whole creation of the process of creation....
here's a link to the most popular exchange Mt.Gox:
https://mtgox.com

and here's an insight into the exchange trade data via a third party website.
http://bitcoin.clarkmoody.com/

Basically, the Bitcoin exchange takes the risk of exchanging fiat for Bitcoins and vice versa as clients buy and sell. They take the risk in exchange for a commission fee on every buy (but not on a Bitcoin sale). So, the liquidity is a result of actual Bitcoin transactions with the exchange around the clock. The Bitcoin "DNA" software, the blockchain (public ledger) and mining community are excluded from exchange activity, since the exchange is exchanging existing Bitcoins for fiat. Actually, I over-simplify: there would be a blockchain transaction since the Bitcoin change of ownership is notified to the blockchain. Mining software would later on include such a Bitcoin transaction in a block along with thousands of other Bitcoin transactions. The link i posted before explains this quite well. In the first post of this thread I included an infographic that may be more digestible!

As for the creator of the Bitcoin algorithm - he/she/they are anonymous and surruptitiously released the software and the concept under an Open Source license. Since then (mid to late 2000's) people have just been running with the idea and it is unfolding in interesting ways, i think. There has also been a story going round the media that the Bitcoin was created by the NW_O as a means of establishing a single global currency by stealth! This is quite an eerie notion and makes the rebel-geek origins of the coin seem a sinister plot! who knows... nothing surprises me anymore

The best time to buy into Bitcoin is not now (clearly) so come check up here for some chart posts and news. Currently price is exploding upwards in a speculative frenzy and is bound to correct. Analysing the correction will be our main task for forecasting and timing entry.
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #210
  • Nov 26, 2013 3:57pm Nov 26, 2013 3:57pm
Quoting venzen
{quote} hi gold2011, What i mentioned in that post was Bitcoin mining with some pictures of mining rigs. The average punter may not be interested in all that and won't need such gear to speculate in or own Bitcoins - only need a smartphone or computer with a Bitcoin client (wallet) installed.


Hi Venzen, shame there ain't a MT platform for windows phone. Maybe I'll buy a cheap smartphone for Xmas

Gold is rising, could touch 1280 soon, what do U think?
  • #211
  • Nov 26, 2013 4:43pm Nov 26, 2013 4:43pm
......The way I see it is this.....
The Federal reserve bank, owned by the Rothschild family in synthesis true JPMorgan and Golden sack and other 300 organizations around the world (NWO) make money out of thing air with no value what so ever but the faith of the American people, ( not mind it or back by gold or anything) then this money is landed to the American government to gain interests or political power, QE 1,2,3,4 and so on are just a way to give this money printed out of thing air to their 300 organizations that they have, is a rig rip off with permit from the corrupted politicians in government true out the years, (since 1913 and the creation of this system) with this interest or profits from this loans since 1913, they have being buying gold, physical gold and saving it, some profits from this out of thing air money, or fiat money is used to fund wars and what not, CIA assassinations, black ups and cover ups, true out history, now bitcoin have a cost of creation, it has some value on it, even though is virtual, wish is the idea so they can't touch it, lol, you need to buy very expensive equipment to make one bitcoin and your reward is shown in the fact that is has grow to 1000 dollars for a bitcoin today, but now, if the elite want's to control bitcoin, they have to buy it or created with expensive machines just like everybody else, so they are going to think twice at the time to use it for wars, because they didn't got it out of thing air, so if they created it, now is on his own, and if they want to control it, they have to pay 1000 dollars a pop for it, or "mind it" and this is where the plain field gets level, we all can have bitcoins at a real price not theirs, not set by their power of manipulations true the FEDS, we all have access to the bitcoins if we don't allow them to control us, and then true bitcoin we can have some freedom or should I say some even field to have a shot at controlling our own money, there always will be bad and corrupt controllers but we make it more difficult for them to make money out of thing air and throw it on wars to kill innocent bystanders, or use it to do evil, because now they have to do it the old fashion way, they have to earn it......

When you mine a bitcoin is yours, you can buy almost anything today with it, or you can trade it in the different platforms like Mt.Gox or BTC-e but is your bitcoin and no body can take it from you anymore, nor true devaluation or confiscation or inflation, is yours, now if you are part of the elite and get easy money loans at low interest or 0, then this coin is not for you, and like a friend of mine said is either them or you, bitcoin or dollars, your choice, but that is a war out there going on, you better believe it and always good versus evil, good prevail or sort I think so.........

Thanks venzen for allowing my rants here...... go bitcoin trading with venzen.......go.....
The Chonchy
  • #212
  • Nov 26, 2013 5:09pm Nov 26, 2013 5:09pm
Quoting gold2011
{quote} Hi Venzen, shame there ain't a MT platform for windows phone. Maybe I'll buy a cheap smartphone for Xmas Gold is rising, could touch 1280 soon, what do U think?
.......Gold rising? for the looks of it is going to that double bottom me think......or maybe even 1000 dollars, irony ah, almost as good as bitcoins .

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: xauusdmweekly.png Size: 40 KB


http://bitcoinwisdom.com/markets/mtgox/btcusd almost $ 1000.00 dollars...........
The Chonchy
  • #213
  • Nov 26, 2013 5:26pm Nov 26, 2013 5:26pm
Quoting venzen
{quote} here's a link to the most popular exchange Mt.Gox: https://mtgox.com and here's an insight into the exchange trade data via a third party website. http://bitcoin.clarkmoody.com/ Basically, the Bitcoin exchange takes the risk of exchanging fiat for Bitcoins and vice versa as clients buy and sell. They take the risk in exchange for a commission fee on every buy (but not on a Bitcoin sale). So, the liquidity is a result of actual Bitcoin transactions with the exchange around the clock. The Bitcoin "DNA" software, the blockchain...
.....Good links venzen, thanks.......

Basically, the Bitcoin exchange takes the risk of exchanging fiat for Bitcoins and vice versa as clients buy and sell. They take the risk in exchange for a commission fee on every buy ........

......Hope one day we don't have to say, the exchanger is risking fiat money for bitcoins, lol, but I guess that day is here already.....
The Chonchy
  • #214
  • Nov 26, 2013 9:22pm Nov 26, 2013 9:22pm
Quoting gold2011
{quote} Hi Venzen, shame there ain't a MT platform for windows phone. Maybe I'll buy a cheap smartphone for Xmas Gold is rising, could touch 1280 soon, what do U think?

hi gold11, I have no idea what is going o with the metals. Count the chart one way and they're going for their annual lows; count it another and they're about to blast off higher; another count has them in a sideways triangle with this leg down soon to be retraced to the upside! The charts are very ambiguous, so the best policy is to wait for more clarity. If you spot a high probability trade - take it at low risk just in case it materialises.
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #215
  • Nov 26, 2013 9:29pm Nov 26, 2013 9:29pm
Quoting chonchy
......The way I see it is this..... The Federal reserve bank....
hi chonchy,

Good rants! What you mention is all related to Bitcoin, and more generally, to our trading the world economy. So rant on. I try to put my analysis and factual posts only because (as the person who started the thread) I want to remain neutral and give those who are new to Bitcoin only straight-down-the-line talk. If we all rant over here they're going to think "typical Bitcoin looney tunes"

good to have you around, chonchy!
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #216
  • Edited 11:05pm Nov 26, 2013 9:36pm | Edited 11:05pm
Right, I stuck to my plan and have sold all Bitcoins at $960 this morning. First sign of RSI divergence was the signal.

There was reverse divergence shortly after the signal, so Bitcoin will be going higher still. However, I am not going to lament not squeezing every micro Bitcoin out of this trend, since profit is profit and greed will fool you everytime ("know when to walk away"). At $960 I have doubled my Bitcoin account capital.

Should PA continue trending above $1000 then I will assess it's potential and post here. Alternatively, onset of correction will be my prompt to start looking for the next bull trend's beginning.
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #217
  • Nov 26, 2013 9:52pm Nov 26, 2013 9:52pm
Quoting venzen
Right, I stuck to my plan and have sold all Bitcoins at $960 this morning. First sign of RSI divergence was the signal. There was reverse divergence shortly after the signal, so Bitcoin will be going higher still. However, I am not going to lament not squeezing every micro Bitcoin out of this trend, since profit is profit and greed will fool you everytime. At $960 I have doubled my Bitcoin account capital. Should PA continue trending above $1000 then I will assess it's potential and post here. Alternatively, onset of correction will be my prompt...
Who do you trade bitcoins with? Any reputable brokers? Also, is it like spot fx where you are leveraged into the movement of bitcoin or do you actually buy and sell the instrument itself?

If you don't mind, what do you recommend a starting balance? I am curious about looking into spec trading here and there.
When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
  • #218
  • Nov 26, 2013 11:01pm Nov 26, 2013 11:01pm
Quoting Pip Anon
{quote} Who do you trade bitcoins with? Any reputable brokers? Also, is it like spot fx where you are leveraged into the movement of bitcoin or do you actually buy and sell the instrument itself? If you don't mind, what do you recommend a starting balance? I am curious about looking into spec trading here and there.

hi Pip Anon,

Good to see you here and welcome.

There are 3 or 4 popular Bitcoin exchanges and the main points to note is that the largest one, Mt.Gox has the highest rates, but it is also known to be unreliable when it comes to fiat pay-outs (take long time). So what a lot of people do is to have accounts with both Mt.Gox and with the next most popular exchange, btc-e. They buy Bitcoins via btc-e, transfer them to their Mt.Gox account, do all trading with Mt.Gox, and when they want to convert to fiat, they transfer Bitcoins back to btc-e. I hope that flows logically, maybe read it again...

here's a link to a third party website where you can get some charts and exchange rate comparisons:
http://bitcoincharts.com
Mt.Gox
https://mtgox.com/
btc-e
https://btc-e.com/

I've never requested a payout from Mt.Gox, so I don't know about their reliability, but I have an account with them because I have coded some apps that use their pricefeeds and trade API. So far so good - sometimes their servers fail under load during market frenzies but I try to not trade during those events anyway because spread goes through the roof.

As for the actual trading of Bitcoin, there are some fx brokers who offer binary options and CFDs (so shorting is possible) but when you deal with the exchanges directly, it's good old fashioned Buy-low-Sell-high stuff. You buy actual Bitcoins, hold 'em, and sell on the highs. So, no shorting (which takes a mindshift!) and the only considerations when determining your frequency of trade are: 1) spread and 2) the exchange "buy commission". There is no fee for selling Bitcoins but when you buy from the exchange you pay them a 0.06% (or thereabout) commission.

Fx brokers tend to impose more fees and after briefly reading their specs I simply opted for the plain old buy-and-hold. Easier and you tend not to hold for long anyway, since Bitcoins goes from high to low and back again within weeks or a few months max. Even trading a M5 chart is possible (but hard work) if you take care to calculate spread and commission fees into your trades.

Starting balance: OK, so one Bitcoin costs $970 right now, but Bitcoins are divisible into tiny fractions:
1 BTC = 1 bitcoin
0.01 BTC = 1 cBTC = 1 centibitcoin (also referred to as bitcent)
0.001 BTC = 1 mBTC = 1 millibitcoin
0.000 001 BTC = 1 μBTC = 1 microbitcoin

The exchanges generally allow a minimum transaction of 1 centibitcoin (0.01 BTC) which is about $10 today.

Because Bitcoin is in a speculative phase of its development it is a high risk investment. I've read articles of people converting millions of USD into Bitcoins but that is not what I would do - I started with a few gift centibitcoins and have grown them - when advising someone else about their money I recommend buying $100-$1000 worth - whatever you can afford to lose on a highly speculative commodity.

In the end it's an exciting and fun instrument to add to your trade portfolio. It may go big one day and then we "early-adopters" would have some valuable assets in our Bitcoin wallets. Oh, BTW - you need to install a Bitcoin client on your PC (link below) or use one of the online e-wallet services (https://blockchain.info/wallet)

here's some more general info if you're interested:
https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/FAQ
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #219
  • Nov 27, 2013 2:48am Nov 27, 2013 2:48am
Quoting venzen
{quote} hi chonchy, Good rants! What you mention is all related to Bitcoin, and more generally, to our trading the world economy. So rant on. I try to put my analysis and factual posts only because (as the person who started the thread) I want to remain neutral and give those who are new to Bitcoin only straight-down-the-line talk. If we all rant over here they're going to think "typical Bitcoin looney tunes" good to have you around, chonchy!
sorry if I sound too bias to bitcoin, it could all explode in my face, but I don't see a down side to it venzen, to tell you true, but I understand, I will be the bad cop here, lol

Mt.Gox.....970 at the time of this post.......

http://bitcoinwisdom.com/
The Chonchy
  • #220
  • Nov 27, 2013 2:59am Nov 27, 2013 2:59am
Quoting venzen
{quote} hi Pip Anon, Good to see you here and welcome. There are 3 or 4 popular Bitcoin exchanges and the main points to note is that the largest one, Mt.Gox has the highest rates, but it is also known to be unreliable when it comes to fiat pay-outs (take long time). So what a lot of people do is to have accounts with both Mt.Gox and with the next most popular exchange, btc-e. They buy Bitcoins via btc-e, transfer them to their Mt.Gox account, do all trading with Mt.Gox, and when they want to convert to fiat, they transfer Bitcoins back to btc-e....
......very good info venzen, wow, very explicit.....

.........I think if gold look for a double bottom.......and bounce there at the red ema 100......


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: xauusdmmonthly.png Size: 31 KB


.....and bitcoin reach the $ 1200.00 dollars point, then people may say, " Is as good as BTC" lol......now they still say "is as good as Gold" but......
The Chonchy
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