Bitcoin technical analysis

BTC is something that can be traded and has a price that keeps moving. I bought my first BTC at $390 and sold them yesterday for $987/BTC. To me, it's an awesome investment!

It's like trading futures on the dow jones or sp500. You are trading a number, and that's it. =)

This is PRECISELY the part that I agree with. But, when it comes to making it a digital currency and something that will be used instead of fiat paper or gold and silver I just don't see it. Yet.

As a trading vehicle I think it is great.

with this miner........

https://products.butterflylabs.com/

you can buy here.....

https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Trade

or here......

https://www.bitcoinstore.com/

or even here.......

http://www.akcoins.com/?gclid=CNTIk-...FaYDOgodTy0AeQ

or trade them here........

https://btc-e.com/

that much you can do with bitcoin, and it has go from 0 to 1000 in a few years, not bad for a crypto.....like venzen said if it goes to $10 dollars again, you haven't lost yet, it could go back up in a Mather of minutes or hours........I like it, I like it very much, and if it stays and kill the banksters I will like it bether......imagine no more wars, wow, how nice......

XTrade,

Good to see you posting here and welcome!

Thanks for the link, I am going to read it now as well as catch up with all the other posts here and in other threads. I had a weekend of workspace cleanup, laptop reinstallation and general sorting-out. Everything is operational again and my weekend TA and posts begin now - 7pm on Sunday night! (feels like the Sunday night before school...)

As an experiment I installed a CPU miner on my dual-core laptop... 8 kiloHash/s I would earn 0.006 Bitcoin after 9 months!)

However, pass the job to a Nvidia GeForce GPU and the rate jumps to 600 MegaHash/sec

One of those USB block eruptors does something like 1.6 GigaHash/sec. You're literally rolling your own money.

Some of the mining rigs are well powerful:

http://www.cryptominers.com/sites/de...farm/Rig01.jpg

i assume the sysadministrator here is more disciplined with his sysconfig than his server room tidyness

http://www.joeydevilla.com/wordpress...g-rig.jpg-.jpg

XTrade, I've now read all the posts up to here and i think we all have agreement that this is a teriffic trade instrument. Not for speculating one's life-savings on but still for speculating - with what you can invest according to your own risk and money management plan. As for the currency part, Chonchy says it very well: IF that aspect of the Bitcoin comes to fruition then it will be a terrific victory in the face of the banksters and technocrats. Meanwhile, it's good for trading. In response to your post quoted above, let me try and clarify from what i know:

Why "Mining"? The term "mining" was carefully chosen for Bitcoin "discovery", i think. Basically, the encrypted algorithm that forms the Bitcoin DNA has (amongst other functions) the built-in tasks of:

1) releasing Bitcoins into existence once a hash (a checksum) for each block (group of Bitcoin transactions) has been correctly decyphered. This contributes to the global Bitcoin transaction ledger as well as popping out 25 Bitcoins. The "miners" run the hardware and software that keeps track of which miner is working on which block and who has correctly processed a block and what the cryptographic IDs of the newly created Bitcoins are. The new Bitcoins join the global money supply and the entry is made in the ledger. Ongoing Bitcoin transactions create new blocks to be mined.

2) "Gradual release" - in an emulation of Gold and PMs as well as a necessity of supply and demand, The Bitcoin core algorithm is predestined to only ever release 21mil Bitcoins over 100 years. As the mining rigs eveolve with technology, the algorithm ramps up the encryption on new blocks and so they take longer to decypher ("mine") for new Bitcoins. This "slow-release" mechanism enforces steady supply whilst ensuring scarcity.

So the "mining" analogy is akin to excavation mining for precious elements - but probably closer to the mining we see in various PC/console strategy games such as Civilization or Empire Earth, etc. It's virtual, but so is most of the fiat money creation and spending we have in the material world.

The Bartender and the Bitcoin:

The mysterious creator of Bitcoin did not seem to have "establishment acceptance" in mind for this crypto-currency. It does not need the bank or the government to accept it for people to actually use it for trade and barter. The bartender cannot go to the bank because the bank does not accept Bitcoins and it is implicitly not in the bank's interest that bitcoin exists, because the bank deals in fiat and charge you everytime fiat changes hands - even between you and the bank! Similarly government, without thinking about it too long, knows that alternative currencies - created by citizens - that it does not (cannot) control or regulate - will disadvantage it in taxes and levies. Hence they spend effort to defame and tar&feather cryptocurrency but they cannot decree on it, because the citizens will rally to the Bitcoin on the principle of Freedom. Dilemma.

So the bartender goes to the Bitcoin Exchanges, who are the market makers in the Bitcoin economy. The exchanges take the risk of making exchange transactions between fiat and crypto-currency - without any guarantee or insurance but for a commission fee. So they are opportunistic but inherently need for the crypto-currency to continue existing. The bartender is taking a risk also - and i don't mean the risk of offering goods in exchange for a unregulated currency - that part is up to the merchant to accept a currency or not - The risk i'm refering to is the bartender's decision to accumulate Bitcoins. Clearly, to accept a token of value as payment, you must believe that the token has value. But does it have inherent value? Will it's value persist over time? Or will it fade into oblivion? Does fiat have inherent value? or is it perceived value?

Only by circulating will Bitcoin gain traction. The more people there are that have a vested interest in it's contunued circulation, the more valuable it becomes. China has no policy statement on Bitcoin. That's not how they do anyway - the authorities simply block the internet traffic they want to eradicate. Until a few months ago the number of Bitcoin transactions originating from China were minimal. Now they make up the bulk of daily transactions. I ask myself "Why?". Besides, if anyone was going to stamp out this new-fangled cyber-funnymunny - they had to strike months ago - now it has become mainstream and it's "too late" to stop it... there may be scope to regulate it but where do you apply that regulation because there is no center... the most obvious bottleneck is at the exchanges, but with growing popularity and use - people may soon not use the exchanges to convert back to fiat but only to buy - IF it's easy and not too much hassle. So, every opportunity they (the vitamin-B deficient autocracy) get handed to regulate or decree, they end up chewing their thumb-nail and mumbling about how innovation is inevitable and actually a good thing.

Past month, H2

The most recent occurence of reverse divergence in RSI indicates the last high (near $900) is going to be taken out. This late in the trend it's difficult to interpret the indicators because, as infinitus pointed out, PA has gone exponential and the momentum indicators (especially MACD) are becoming unreliable/fatigued. My analysis falls back on S&R: will participants take profit near $1000 or will momentum carry PA beyond with a retest of $1000 before another wave up? One thing is for sure, there are more sell orders below than buy orders above and judging by the orderbook and most obvious support levels, the sell-off is only likely to ease-off near $350.

I also never rule out triangles near important S&R - since PA may need to coil up before striking higher. That would match the rest of the market going into December...

Is this ur room?. Do we really all need this. F. me, I didn't think it was that complicated.

You may be interested in this...
Bitcoin Will Fall To $250 By November 30
http://seekingalpha.com/article/1859..._for_0_8&ifp=0

......And my recommendation to you, that I have being looking the developing of this project from the beginning and have seeing people buy at any stage, is to sale if you enter at 300 dollars or higher, but if you enter at 100 or 200 or less, don't even think about salling, the heat is on and people will buy bitcoins from now on just for the fun of it, and when the smart ones wait for a more suitable price, the desperate's will just enter now at any price, like me imagine if you bought gold at 300 and 200 or even 100, will you sale now or at 1900? wait for a retest of 1000 to sale half if you bought at 300 and sale all if you bought at 500, but keep some if you bought at 100 or 50 because you won't see those prices again, and don't listen too much to the people that is telling you to sale, because that is what golden sack and JPMorgan want you to do with the paper gold so they can buy the physical......

Oh and last but not least......The Bartender.....oh yes the bartender......

.....Imagine that the bartender was given a tip in bitcoins, back when it was a dollar for a bitcoin in 2008 and the guy told the customer that the store don't take bitcoins and the customer told him, oh no this bitcoin is a token of appreciation the store will get paid in real tangible money, dollars, so the bartender paid the store in real dollars and had to keep the worthless bitcoin as a tip for courtesy to the customer because it was a regular and had tip him real well in real tangible dollars before, but since that day the guy keep tipping the bartender in bitcoins because the bartender already took one and the customer though that he was happy with those kind of worthless bitcoins tips, then one day the customer never saw the bartender again, and when the customer asked the store for the bartender, the store told the guy, well the bartender had a jar full of worthless coins there in a corner and one day two weeks ago, took the jar under his arm and run away from here and we haven't see him again, far in the back of the store in a flat screen TV you could hear CNN reporter announcing some crazy story about a crazy worthless crytpto coin reaching $1 000.00 dollars each, assuming the customer tip the guy a coin a visit since 2008 and only went to the store once a week, is 52 weeks times ( 2008/2013 ) 5 years x 52 weeks = 260 weeks, less two weeks ago when it happens is 258 weeks even, one bitcoin times 258 weeks is 258 bitcoins, at a thousand dollars a bitcoin last two weeks ago = $ 258 000, yes a quarter of a million dollars in worthless tokens........the bartender should be a very happy camper today in some remote island in the Caribbean giving real tangible dollars in tips to the bartenders, lol.......

.....No is not complicated, buy one of this, lol......

http://www.ebay.com/itm/10-Pack-ASIC...item3cd8f34e70

or this one, cheaper......

http://www.ebay.com/itm/12-Asicminer...item27db2cec4c

.........then trade the bitcoins for this.......

http://gold-tradex.com/

........and with gold you know what to do, correct?

hi gold2011,


What i mentioned in that post was Bitcoin mining with some pictures of mining rigs. The average punter may not be interested in all that and won't need such gear to speculate in or own Bitcoins - only need a smartphone or computer with a Bitcoin client (wallet) installed.

hi PT!

great to see you posting here. From an anthropological point of view I enjoy all the social aspects of Bitcoin. This piece of mainstream commentary is interesting because it is ill-informed, derisive and vitriolic. Who do these techno-geeks think they are? This.. this... this "thing" isn't a serious thing! Fools! Get out of Bitcoin while you can!!!

I liked the part where the writer scowls:



The establishment and mainstream are really getting their faces all in a screw... but why? This is a speculative phenomenon. It goes up and down in waves that can be counted - more so than any asset or commodity that ever existed. Bitcoin came from $0.04 to over $400 in 4 years - that's 999,900% growth for the period or 249,975% per year! I haven't calculated what the percentage growth is at the current $800 in wave 4... exciting stuff. But because it did not originate from an "official" or comprehensible source it leaves the suits out of their cultural depth.

Nov 30, plucked out of thin air, may be a good date for a crash, but if old A.J.'s "technical" skills were any better, he'd know that it's first going higher before it goes down to his well-identified $250 support.

Thanks for posting the article because all views are interesting and have their angle! It would have been helpful on the writer's part if he had actually laid out his TA instead of his prejudices.

in deed.......

........I found a Good way to start without the hassles......

https://cex.io/r/0/chonchy/0/

chonchy, I see you're thinking of mining. Good Luck!

H6 log scale

The Fib tools on the chart are not calibrated to compensate for the skewing being instroduced by the log scale, so they're nothing to go by. However, the count seems pretty standard for an impulse but just in case I missed a count the alt count (red) shows an imminent top and subsequent return to subwave 2 of the extended 5th. If my prefered count (in black) is correct then BTCUSD still has some distance to go before a top is struck. But let the red count act as a caution... I'm waiting for the current triangle to complete and will time an exit at the first sign of indicator divergence to the upside.

edit: at the time of writing BTCUSD = $830. Another low is due on the triangle - looks like wave E should print a low around $770.

http://ubuntuone.com/3LhlXnLFRRuTUoBG14Qrd9

experiment: this post sent from Links command line browser... doesn't seem like javascript is working so no image upload.

regular BB code works:

Silver M15 - breaking out of its downtrend channel

http://ubuntuone.com/6W16AwgXa1x1hlswcAodwA

M15 Triangle

Once the triangle completes, we can expect a wave up to the vicinity of 1000. Whether it will reach target or not remains to be seen. A strong profit taking sell-off could happen before PA even gets to 1000. Alternatively, the market could hold out - eager anticipation for price to go beyond 1000 may see some buy orders triggered just beyond 1000 and a spike to the upside. That is when I'd expect to see a sell-off bring price back to 450/500

edit: on looking at the chart below, my count on the last wave up from 450 seems to be skipping some important waves! Those three wave structures in there may be a clue that we're looking at an ending diagonal and not a triangle. An ending diag will be preferable because we will be able to pinpont the top with greater accuracy as well as knowing that the advance is over and to be followed by swift retrace.

http://ubuntuone.com/32CoNsSPlY9F1osmVoC71E

.....No, I want to trade but remember I need the coin first, lol, but I want to trade, and if this people sale me a contract for life, hey is not bad, I can make a coin and then trade it, but I do want to trade for sure......what is the best to chart for you venzen? wish platform? this is what a friend of mine teach me...

in here.........http://bitcoinwisdom.com/markets/btce/btcusd ......place the four platforms, Mt.Cox, BTC-e, BTCchina and Bitstamp all in one screen, watch for MT.cox to go up and all others will go up after, BTC-e is the last one to go up, so in another words if Mt.Gox is going up, BTC-e will follow after.......just a humble tip......