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  • #28,681
  • Nov 21, 2013 6:17am Nov 21, 2013 6:17am
That spike got me badly filled. I suspected it would come imminently and 1 second before I went short at 1244.45 and got filled at 1238.8. Talk about a bad slippage. Lost $2.70. A 5 second earlier short and I'd be $3.60 up.
You win, you lose. All else is history. The future does not exist.
  • #28,682
  • Nov 21, 2013 6:18am Nov 21, 2013 6:18am
Quoting Smithy1
Goldman Sachs - Gold will drop $1,050 at the end of next year, as the U.S. economy extends its recovery. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-1...e-in-2014.html

Not poking fun at your post but at Goldman Sachs - who are famous for misinformation. Also: end of next year? wow, they've got the forecast power to see the end of next year? And assuming this boring sideways PA continues... that leaves Gold at about $250/oz. I'll snap up a bar - as will every Chinese housewife after the Peoples' Bank has done buying.

What GS are saying is an impossible outcome. Gold is a commodity and highly sought after object of desire and power since time began. I cannot see it below $1000 for more than a few seconds before massive demand pushes the price up. Besides there are initiatives like in China and the BRICS bank to back currency with Gold, so that acts as a kind of floor under the Gold price. Whoever sells into the market at low price supplies a well-monied and patient willing buyer.
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #28,683
  • Nov 21, 2013 6:25am Nov 21, 2013 6:25am
don't know if KiwiOz is online but, I just noticed his CCI indicator shows what appears to be... a rising line, on the Daily. I am still learning the indicator, but the line shows a higher low. Of course we just made a lower low. I'm still learning the indicator. Apologies if others have already noticed this.

Unfortunately, have to go to work and cannot watch where I am in a position to trade. Did take a long but am somewhat jittery about it. Going to have to place a stop loss on it. Too many mistakes in that regard = disastrous with gold - with foolish attitudes I've had in the past about stop losses.
  • #28,684
  • Nov 21, 2013 6:26am Nov 21, 2013 6:26am
Quoting venzen
{quote} Not poking fun at your post but at Goldman Sachs - who are famous for misinformation. Also: end of next year? wow, they've got the forecast power to see the end of next year? And assuming this boring sideways PA continues... that leaves Gold at about $250/oz. I'll snap up a bar - as will every Chinese housewife after the Peoples' Bank has done buying. What GS are saying is an impossible outcome. Gold is a commodity and highly sought after object of desire and power since time began. I cannot see it below $1000 for more than a few seconds...
To drop to $1180 exaggerated by press as to 1080 a further $100 down (not by 1080) which would be $180 an ounce nothe current $1240 an ounce or so. Yes, it's possible. The market says it could happen.
You win, you lose. All else is history. The future does not exist.
  • #28,685
  • Nov 21, 2013 6:49am Nov 21, 2013 6:49am
Riding Gold Sometimes i'm a lucky one
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #28,686
  • Nov 21, 2013 6:55am Nov 21, 2013 6:55am
Making back my earlier loss. Shorted gold @1240.9
You win, you lose. All else is history. The future does not exist.
  • #28,687
  • Nov 21, 2013 6:57am Nov 21, 2013 6:57am
Quoting SilberSimon
Riding Gold Sometimes i'm a lucky one {image}
strong support at 1237. Bounce?
  • #28,688
  • Nov 21, 2013 6:59am Nov 21, 2013 6:59am
Quoting The Rhodie
{quote} To drop to $1180 exaggerated by press as to 1080 a further $100 down (not by 1080) which would be $180 an ounce nothe current $1240 an ounce or so. Yes, it's possible. The market says it could happen.

Rhodie, we'll have to agree to disagree on the future of the markets because our positions are polar opposites (on some topics).

i'm sure you've read my "definte maybe" position, so i apprehend and interpret the markets from this perspective and with a sceptical eye - because for 10 years I honestly believe it was all going to fall apart and it never did.
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #28,689
  • Nov 21, 2013 7:08am Nov 21, 2013 7:08am
Quoting Greener
{quote} strong support at 1237. Bounce?
Yes she bounce but not strong as i think.
  • #28,690
  • Nov 21, 2013 7:09am Nov 21, 2013 7:09am
Quoting Greener
{quote} strong support at 1237. Bounce?
Don't know lets see .. out @ 1238.. think this was the trade for me today
  • #28,691
  • Nov 21, 2013 7:13am Nov 21, 2013 7:13am
Quoting venzen
{quote} Rhodie, we'll have to agree to disagree on the future of the markets because our positions are polar opposites (on some topics). i'm sure you've read my "definte maybe" position, so i apprehend and interpret the markets from this perspective and with a sceptical eye - because for 10 years I honestly believe it was all going to fall apart and it never did.
I suppose so. Bear in mind that we have only traded gold at this price range for 5 years in 150 since stock markets opened. Prior to that it had never even thought it possible. 2001 was the year gold began to climb out of the usual ranges that had been there for more than 100 years. $500 was their high for all time. Now it's nearly $2000 in the past 2 years. Anything's possible, but "will it?" is the question. Not likely unless the politicians do something stupid.
You win, you lose. All else is history. The future does not exist.
  • #28,692
  • Nov 21, 2013 7:13am Nov 21, 2013 7:13am
Quoting SilberSimon
{quote} Don't know lets see .. out @ 1238.. think this was the trade for me today
It may need a few touches before it takes off. With uberpositive USD data it wasnt able to go any further than 1237. That's something to think about.
  • #28,693
  • Nov 21, 2013 7:17am Nov 21, 2013 7:17am
End game for 1200, it's no man's land.

Good profits everyone. I smell bears are coming back and maybe go to 1000.
  • #28,694
  • Edited 8:07am Nov 21, 2013 7:56am | Edited 8:07am
colleagues seeing as our precious is being pathetic: anyone trading any of the Yen pairs?

I guess the slow action in Gold and Silver forced me to look around the market more carefully and I've been keeping an eye on GBPJPY - anyway today thought "what the hell" and jumped into an ongoing trend that is already diverged multiple times over - and amazingly it's gone 100pips in a few hours and still going strong! Bitcoin, i'm in of course - bought at $530 and it's now at $720 - a day later - who knows tomorrow it may be $60!

"Live the good life" they said - "become a trader"

here's an article by Ambrose Evans-Pritchard which turns QE inside out with interesting alternatives:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/c...n-the-air.html
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #28,695
  • Nov 21, 2013 8:07am Nov 21, 2013 8:07am
Quoting venzen
colleaguesm seeing as our precious is being pathetic: anyone trading any of the Yen pairs? I guess the slow action in Gold and Silver forced me to look around the market more carefully and I've been keeping an eye on GBPJPY - anyway today thought "what the hell" and jumped into an ongoing trend that is already diverged multiple times over - and amazingly it's gone 100pips in a few hours and still going strong! Bitcoin, i'm in of course - bought at $530 and it's now at $720 - a day later - who knows tomorrow it may be $60! "Live the good life" they...

On the bitcoin note, I bought 100 BTC and 100 LTC back when they where dirt cheap, sold out 25 BTC at $700, holding the rest.

I am keeping an eye GBPJPY also, bought in on a pin bar break about 20 hours ago, 194 pips up, might close out now and wait for the next chance to take another long if i see fit.
insideBars==boss
  • #28,696
  • Nov 21, 2013 8:31am Nov 21, 2013 8:31am
Quoting adamjn
{quote} On the bitcoin note, I bought 100 BTC and 100 LTC back when they where dirt cheap, sold out 25 BTC at $700, holding the rest. I am keeping an eye GBPJPY also, bought in on a pin bar break about 20 hours ago, 194 pips up, might close out now and wait for the next chance to take another long if i see fit.
hi adamjn,


Bitcoin is good fun, and a lot of people miss that because we tend to evaluate trade instruments with fundamental hats on and this intangible funny-money is just a paradox at $700 a unit

GBPJPY - i spent a few months only trading the Yen pairs and i respect them for being aggressive movers. But sometimes the irrational market behaviour can be disconcerting. Fundamental issues surrounding the Yen tends to distort sentiment and the charts: Ongoing printing by BoJ, Is the Yen still a "safe haven" or not? etc. My conclusion was that they're good for buy and hold position trades and since 2012 the trend is up (until it changes to down) I think the uptrend may last another 6 months or so.

If this low in Gold has printed and trend changes upwards then we have a few interesting options opening up for trade. One of them is that we may be in a large triangle formation which has it's upper TL near 1400. So there's a trade in that. The other option is that the larger bull trend is underway (and has been in play for almost 6 months). But this is my least likely scenario. A triangle pattern seems to reassert every time. So, IF this low around current levels is indeed the decline low then we have good upside prospects. Confirmation of trend change is needed and then we advance a target at a time: 1276, 1300, 1320 (tough one), 1360 and 1400.

My downside expectations for Gold have waned somewhat because the bears have had 2 downtrends since the Jul/Aug advance and failed to capitulate on both occasions. The past 2 weeks I've seen some of the most tedious downside action of my career. The wave up in October was good trading and it was an impulse, so upside seems more animated and promising.

Holy Buddha, did i just write all of that? amazing what a stream of consciousness can do...
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #28,697
  • Nov 21, 2013 9:04am Nov 21, 2013 9:04am
Quoting venzen
{quote} hi adamjn, Bitcoin is good fun, and a lot of people miss that because we tend to evaluate trade instruments with fundamental hats on and this intangible funny-money is just a paradox at $700 a unit GBPJPY - i spent a few months only trading the Yen pairs and i respect them for being aggressive movers. But sometimes the irrational market behaviour can be disconcerting. Fundamental issues surrounding the Yen tends to distort sentiment and the charts: Ongoing printing by BoJ, Is the Yen still a "safe haven" or not? etc. My conclusion was...
Yeh, BTC is fun to trade, off topic of gold, do you use Gox? I think I have got burned by them lol, they owe me money, and have done for the past 2 months, not much, most of my holdings are with another company..

Here is my short term view on gold, chart attached. M15 Chart

As for long term, looking at the weekly chart, the volume in all the lows is unreal, I think we could be going back up, and Goldman and all banks are telling people its going to $1000 so it will maybe keep prices down a bit longer so they can stock up on gold.. Just a mad though of mine haha.

To me, it has broken out of the weekly triangle to the downside, but we still have tomorrow to go, so if it goes back up to the 1250 handle, then it will just be a false break.

Yen, I am not too sure what to do on it, I just jumped on the train and took long as I seen a good signal, I mainly trade gold and try to stick with it...

XAUUSD M15
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 5p3o1.png Size: 35 KB
insideBars==boss
  • #28,698
  • Edited 1:26pm Nov 21, 2013 9:59am | Edited 1:26pm
Quoting gold2011
End game for 1200, it's no man's land. Good profits everyone. I smell bears are coming back and maybe go to 1000.
I'm not so sure. That's looking like a strong coffee needs ordering and a headache tablet for you, imo. We have been here a few times before, so I wouldn't get too pessimistic on the bulls. There is a major level of support to keep this market higher up or the global gold supply may begin to deplete too rapidly which could destabilise economies all over. We need to understand the gold reserve dynamics and that it is monopolised by seriously influential players. Most of us traders are just fleas in the path of planetary collision-courses. Not to put too fine a point on it, shark turd in an ocean of wealth.

We shouldn't see 1200 break today, but it is in jeopardy.
To add a call that it may be in trouble is this image: Courtesy of adamjn's image from earlier today.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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This does not mean that there is a chance of bulls winning a temporary respite, but the bears will bite down hard when they bite. I personally hope that we carry on trading this dreamworld scenario upwards because ther is still a promise and hope that all is well in the world. The market denies there is much truth in that sentiment though.

Please remember that my analysis is amateur and only had 1 week of trading a live account so far. Everything I say is technically my opinion.
You win, you lose. All else is history. The future does not exist.
  • #28,699
  • Nov 21, 2013 11:02am Nov 21, 2013 11:02am
Quoting adamjn
{quote} Yeh, BTC is fun to trade, off topic of gold, do you use Gox? I think I have got burned by them lol, they owe me money, and have done for the past 2 months, not much, most of my holdings are with another company.. Here is my short term view on gold, chart attached. M15 Chart As for long term, looking at the weekly chart, the volume in all the lows is unreal, I think we could be going back up, and Goldman and all banks are telling people its going to $1000 so it will maybe keep prices down a bit longer so they can stock up on gold.. Just a...

I'm with Mt.Gox and have not yet tried to withdraw, so will do some dilligence on that. Thanks for the heads-up.
Hope your problem there get's sorted they're a bit slow to respond i believe. BTW - BTUSD up at $738 atm (from $580 this morning)

Gold, glad you mention the volume everytime, because i don't rely on my broker's volume data yet what you're saying is there is strong buying. This is evident from the struggle PA seems to make trying to swim through molasses each wave down yet upward waves (even upwards corrections during the downdrafts) have all the zest of Spring in them! Nevermind that TL break on the triangle TL - I've got it figured out and will post on the weekend. I believe we're going up - there are some signs of motive wave action in the sub M5 PA. Goldman's Sack and the other banks are blasted thieves and liars (who said that? damn Aspberger's...) so their statements should always be read as contrarian signs!

Same here with the Yen - saw the wave formations - saw more upward potential and hey it paid off. In fact I'm still in GJ and EJ with wide trailing stops. Welcome lift to my mood after the past few weeks' glum PA.

cryptocurrency everytime
  • #28,700
  • Nov 21, 2013 11:18am Nov 21, 2013 11:18am
Quoting adamjn
{quote} ...I mainly trade gold and try to stick with it... XAUUSD M15 {image}
i switched to singular PA a few months ago: only Gold - all of the time!

However, today i started putting some Silver charts around the desktop. I noticed yesterday that Silver prints a simpler chart - the same PA as Gold but less distorted. So for an EW guy like myself that helps me to decypher what Gold was/is trying to express. Often the Gold patterns are skewed and I completely miss them or misidentify them. So Silver is a new friend and a great help so far.
cryptocurrency everytime
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