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  • #28,641
  • Edited 1:34am Nov 21, 2013 12:39am | Edited 1:34am
Quoting mrmalik1
i have two longs 1 from 1262 and 1250 should i hold them ore liquidate them any advise from any body any idea.

mrmalik,

here are some options for PA and the orange elipse shows which TLs may cause a reversal to the downside once more.

Pa is currently at the blue dot labeled (3). It may be that downside has completed at label (3) in which case I will correct the count, but the downside shown remains an option. i notice the chart annotations are really small in this view so perhaps click on the chart to enlarge...

http://ubuntuone.com/0nNLYfvh9zZI6ZyzphMdSX
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #28,642
  • Nov 21, 2013 12:42am Nov 21, 2013 12:42am
like has been said: extremely hard to advise. All depends on the timeframe you are basing your trades upon. I was short but turned long again for a daytrade. Be flexible and disciplined at the same time. The only one that's gong to be able to provide the final answer to your question is YOU.
  • #28,643
  • Nov 21, 2013 1:02am Nov 21, 2013 1:02am
Daily analysis of gold:

Just briefly and not in depth:-
Patterns are telling me that gold could move to 1229 or so before rallying up to as high as 1361 and then crash down to 1180.
Other possibilities are that a rally above 1294 would be more and more bearish for gold, especially if the rally exceeds 1326.
Gold is more likely to try test 1261.527 then sell off than rally any higher. If it does rally higher there are a couple important levels to keep an eye on for the day:

Bearish situations:

  1. 1274.073 the 61.8% retracement today,
  2. 1276.43 the high of yesterday
  3. 1283.004 the 78.6% retracement today
  4. If the above fail to be breached completely, then we need to consider that gold may well chase the rabbit down it's own hole to 1180 area over a few days but most probably into next week. The time frame is not clear yet becaus events have not occurred to validate this outlook.

The bullish situations:

  1. Have to exceed 1294 today, and stop below 1326, pull back down a little then continue gently upwards over at least 2 trading weeks to break above 1326 region

Remarkably, the markets are almost like a prediction tool of what may happen next in the world. They tell you what options the world has ahead of it that will determine what governments or regions will have to decide upon to make a market change direction. Guaging those possibilities is what may help you determine whether the market is bullish or bearish over the longer term. All the markets are in fact a history of the global trade decisions and the remaining option available to each trader. There comes a point when the markets are left with fewer options than anyone wants to admit and markets move in a particular direction because there is almost no other alternative that they can go against it. Gold is in one of those situations this week: a narrowing window of opportunity that is controlled mostly by US trade and debt management. What they decide this week and rest of this year will affect the future well into the next 20 years in a diminishing scale over time like ripples in an olympic swimming pool when a car is dropped into it.

Addendum, a bullish signal is developing at 1246 to go long. This worries me because it is near the HoD and is against the destiny of the markets. This may be a start of a retracement to put a new high in before a bigger move down for the day. This must break higher than 1249 to be bullish before going lower.

You win, you lose. All else is history. The future does not exist.
  • #28,644
  • Edited 1:24am Nov 21, 2013 1:04am | Edited 1:24am
back to short at 1247.09 right at the very start of the european session. Not exactly inspiring confidence for longer term bulls.
  • #28,645
  • Nov 21, 2013 1:21am Nov 21, 2013 1:21am
Quoting mrmalik1
i have two longs 1 from 1262 and 1250 should i hold them ore liquidate them any advise from any body any idea.
Exit at 1256 break even and take a Day rest, just watch if you have urge to trade then open a demo account and trade in it

Hope it will raise to 1256

All is well - Trader
Tamizhan
  • #28,646
  • Nov 21, 2013 1:27am Nov 21, 2013 1:27am
Quoting cvds16
back to short at 1247.09 at the very start of the european session.
A feeling or your decision based on fundamentals ? I gave it also a try @ 1.249
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Schnappschuss (2013-11-21 08.25.26).png Size: 27 KB
  • #28,647
  • Edited 2:08am Nov 21, 2013 1:54am | Edited 2:08am
Quoting SilberSimon
{quote} A feeling or your decision based on fundamentals ? I gave it also a try @ 1.249 {image}
I don't trade on emotion, feelings or beliefs. My trades are based on historical data that comes from the market as time progresses. The market has no feeling and therefor neither should I. Everything I talk about in my daily analysis is based upon my system and the trads it says are most likely to succeed. Obviously I cannot give signals yet because I'm new to this and still learning, but the system is fairly accurate. there are some adjustments that need to be made to it and only over time will I find those. I am a pattern recognition magnet. In the month I have been trained professionally to trade, I have seen some very historical data and some key patterns that seem to recur like a mark on a wheel that keeps cycling around with incredible frequency that it is a market fundamental.

Right now under your nose you are watching gold roll over and is getting set for a bigger mover down for the day. If it hits 1243.12 and breaks lower, my friend, you can expect gold to go a lot lower than it is now. However unlikely this next statement seems, gold breaking up above 1249.37 without great volume is bullish and high volume is bearish. The end of the Asian session in about 30 mins will tell you the direction gold is going for the day.

08h06: Gold has tested the LoD @1243.31. dangerously close to the breaking point of 1243.12. I would short on the very next 1min retracement in my newbie opinion, but watch that volume. If gold braks above 1247.77 then it may be more bullish for a while.
You win, you lose. All else is history. The future does not exist.
  • #28,648
  • Nov 21, 2013 2:06am Nov 21, 2013 2:06am
I don't trade on feelings (tried that in my infancy as a trader, it can work for quite a while, untill you lose your 'touch', then it turns into a horror show lol). I now solely rely on what I see on my charts. My trade is working out for the moment. I try to remain flexible.
  • #28,649
  • Nov 21, 2013 2:34am Nov 21, 2013 2:34am
the break out of their channel TLs (to the upside) by both Silver and Gold is confirmation to me that we are heading up. The decline may not be over since there are larger channel lines above. But for now I am reconsidering some triangle scenarios (righthand side of image)

What is also significant about yesterday's low is that it has re-synchronized Gold and Silver in terms of both charts now having corresponding waves and highs/lows. Also, the wave counts instantaneously co-ordinate again - which was a dilemma before but will now allow for some interesting correlation studies.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Gold_Selection_21Nov13_15:29.png Size: 107 KB
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #28,650
  • Nov 21, 2013 2:52am Nov 21, 2013 2:52am
To be correct: breaking the channel TL is not confirmation of anything. Closing above it and moving higher would be more believable confirmation. Coming back under it and continuing lower (as what might be happening) is a sign of downdraft.
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #28,651
  • Nov 21, 2013 3:57am Nov 21, 2013 3:57am
Quoting venzen
{quote} hi Scalptastic, Bernanke has spoken already. I believe he conveyed the message that the Fed has no problem keeping QE (or accommodative policy) going for the foreseeable future. Today's events are CPI and Retails data as well as the FOMC meeting minutes.

I meant the minutes. I will try to be more accurate next time
  • #28,652
  • Nov 21, 2013 4:02am Nov 21, 2013 4:02am
I mentioned before that yesterday's low brought Gold and Silver charts back in sync. However, some peculiar differences remain: Notice how the bottom of this wave in Gold (yellow chart) looks like a cat arching it's back and in Silver it resembles a nutsack!

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Gold_Selection_21Nov13_17:00.png Size: 17 KB
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #28,653
  • Nov 21, 2013 4:04am Nov 21, 2013 4:04am
Hmmm....
Been watching currencies for correlation with gold. The USD influence on gold is quite diminshed compared with recent times, and Euro:jpy has a small correlation sometimes direct and and others inverse...

What I've been pondering is the principle of market fractures. What causes it and when doesit tend to happen? It seems that market fractures occur when the velocity of trade accelerates beyond the mean prevailing sentimental value. In a formula this could be stated as:

[(Dx * t) ]

[-------- = V]
[ Dy ]
the Delta values are the swing point range averages over the last t mins on an t min chart. T is the time value. Does anyone agree with this?
You win, you lose. All else is history. The future does not exist.
  • #28,654
  • Nov 21, 2013 4:07am Nov 21, 2013 4:07am
If we manage to break below 1242-1240 zone there will be not much support until 1215. Today we might see some retracement.
Attached Image
  • #28,655
  • Nov 21, 2013 4:34am Nov 21, 2013 4:34am
Quoting The Rhodie
Hmmm.... Been watching currencies for correlation with gold. The USD influence on gold is quite diminshed compared with recent times, and Euro:jpy has a small correlation sometimes direct and and others inverse... What I've been pondering is the principle of market fractures. What causes it and when doesit tend to happen? It seems that market fractures occur when the velocity of trade accelerates beyond the mean prevailing sentimental value. In a formula this could be stated as: [(Dx * t) ] [-------- = V] [ Dy ] the Delta values are the swing point...

Phew! Can't tell... my math-blockage is so severe i don't even know if i agree or not.

Even mentally calculating a percentage of any number other than 100 induces headache... The one time I tried to create a formula that would check random number x for it's nearest Fib neighbour - i ended up lying in a sickbed the next day!

Anyhow, back to the challenge:for starters, could you define "market fracture" and the terms in the formula?
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #28,656
  • Edited 4:38am Nov 21, 2013 4:38am | Edited 4:38am
Quoting The Rhodie
[(Dx * t) ] [-------- = V] [ Dy ] the Delta values are the swing point range averages over the last t mins on an t min chart. T is the time value. ?
Come again!? your gonna have to expand on this.
What is a swing point range average.

I have a similar theory which goes like this:
Take any time frame, but lets use H1 for this example. XAUUSD 13 Nov 2013
Now how quickly does a retracement or reversal occur. Has to be 3x H1 bars at least.
Now in the image posted, see how the box to the right shows three bars (bodies) close beyond 9 previous bars.
3x3 = 9
4x3 = 12
5x3 = 15 etc
So it can be any amount of bars but it has to capture the previous range
The trick is what confirms it once it has done this, perhaps a large volume or range bar or several bars above the first box
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: XAUUSD - Range shut off 01.GIF Size: 16 KB
  • #28,657
  • Nov 21, 2013 4:42am Nov 21, 2013 4:42am
Quoting Scalptastic
If we manage to break below 1242-1240 zone there will be not much support until 1215. Today we might see some retracement.
I would go so far as to say that if gold breaks below 1246.51 and keeps under that then it's a long way to slide down, but it's looking slightly bullish as there are patterns behind us that say this is a place where gold should go long but it's not moving above 1250 nor below 1243. I would not trade here in any hurry as it's only a $6.88 day range wit trade in the upper third of the prices.

For bulls: wait for a test of the current low to get long. Looks risky.
For bears: Wait until 1200 gmt to find an entry short. Looks risky.
You win, you lose. All else is history. The future does not exist.
  • #28,658
  • Nov 21, 2013 4:44am Nov 21, 2013 4:44am
Quoting JayPipin
{quote} Come again!? your gonna have to expand on this. What is a swing point range average. I have a similar theory which goes like this: Take any time frame, but lets use H1 for this example. XAUUSD 13 Nov 2013 Now how quickly does a retracement or reversal occur. Has to be 3x H1 bars at least. Now in the image posted, see how the box to the right shows three bars (bodies) close beyond 9 previous bars. 3x3 = 9 4x3 = 12 5x3 = 15 etc So it can be any amount of bars but it has to capture the previous range The trick is what confirms it once it has...

i think you'll hit more fractal occurences if you use Fib numbers as the multiplier or just even as a straight count: after 5 bars, after 8, after 13, etc

Whenever i see timebased projections that work they're always based on Fibs (eg, 89 weeks from market peak to market peak) or ratios: peak to trough = .382 and to next peak = .618.

Have you tried this?
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #28,659
  • Nov 21, 2013 4:46am Nov 21, 2013 4:46am
Quoting JayPipin
{quote} Come again!? your gonna have to expand on this. What is a swing point range average. I have a similar theory which goes like this: Take any time frame, but lets use H1 for this example. XAUUSD 13 Nov 2013 Now how quickly does a retracement or reversal occur. Has to be 3x H1 bars at least. Now in the image posted, see how the box to the right shows three bars (bodies) close beyond 9 previous bars. 3x3 = 9 4x3 = 12 5x3 = 15 etc So it can be any amount of bars but it has to capture the previous range The trick is what confirms it once it has...
(The average high value for last 5 swings on 5 min chart multiplied by the time frame)
divided by
The average low value for last 5 swings on 5 min chart)
all equals the velocity of the trades.

The volume to velocity ratio has a major influence on trades. I suspect that when velocity exceeds 38.2% above median we see a move in a direction. That number is a fib number, but those ratios are well known and can be instituted for a bot trader.
You win, you lose. All else is history. The future does not exist.
  • #28,660
  • Nov 21, 2013 4:50am Nov 21, 2013 4:50am
Quoting The Rhodie
{quote} I would go so far as to say that if gold breaks below 1246.51 and keeps under that then it's a long way to slide down, but it's looking slightly bullish as there are patterns behind us that say this is a place where gold should go long but it's not moving above 1250 nor below 1243. I would not trade here in any hurry as it's only a $6.88 day range wit trade in the upper third of the prices. For bulls: wait for a test of the current low to get long. Looks risky. For bears: Wait until 1200 gmt to find an entry short. Looks risky.

i see what you're saying. I'm wondering about the momentum tho' - had a bottom to this decline been struck one would expect PA to reverse strongly with impulsive action to the upside. This seems to be a conslidation... but then it broke channel, so this implies another large move down... but i don't trust PA right now.
cryptocurrency everytime
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