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XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

  • #27,641
  • Nov 6, 2013 12:12am Nov 6, 2013 12:12am
Quoting XTrade
From that little snip - no - if you had another snip next to it where the price went up and then back down to the same area - didn't break the support and continued past the old highs (like the one in theory on the second "snip") then yes. {quote}

I'm assuming you are reffering to the last two bars? I mean, I suppose if you had two almost identical daily bars bottoming at the same price with decent PA
(not just a small candle with two short wicks) with say a first bunch of the price declining to the bottom "two" then the fourth bar reverses takes out the "two's" highs if different and continues north It "MIGHT" be a double bottom,

But, usually it is spaced out a bit in an attempt to make two separate attempts south of a price support, the first pushes the support or tests the level for strength,
the second is usually another attempt by the bears to break through and now test the area for validity, then if it does not break, it is valid and decently strong to be on the daily. Here, shorts may then cover and buyers renew on the signal, in turn pushing the price up resulting in the reversal wanted after a double bottom.

After just two consecutive days, it is a bit too short of a time period to know if the price has really "bottomed" or is just in range.
Whereas if it is over a week or two, the chances are greatly increased.

But on your chart I don't even see the other scenario, which the more I think about it, is not very reliable. - We just had that two consecutive bar low pattern last week and the price went lower.
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XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #27,642
  • Nov 6, 2013 12:41am Nov 6, 2013 12:41am
C O M M E N T A R I E S: With links and quotes for convenience


CME Group: Proposed CFTC Rules On Position Limits Not Warranted

Tuesday November 5, 2013 2:30 PM


Quoting Allen Sykora
CME Group says it “supports position limits in our markets” but nevertheless considers proposed rules by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission -- which require that federal position limits be set and implemented by the agency – as unwarranted and not necessary, particularly outside of the spot months. “The proposed conditional limit rules, which would allow a trader to hold up to five times the limit in a cash-settled version of a contract, are inconsistent with the remainder of the proposal, and are a potentially dangerous idea,”
"continued "" CME Group says. “At 125% of deliverable supply, the proposed conditional limits could increase the potential for price dislocation, especially in the final days of trading, and could damage the price discovery that occurs when a futures contract converges with the physical market the closer it gets to delivery. We are especially concerned about this five times higher limit for cash-settled contracts given the updated deliverable supply information that we recently provided to the CFTC. As just one example, based on our analysis of current data, under this proposed rule structure the limits for Nymex physical crude oil would increase by 500%.” CME Group, which says it employs hard position limits, and also believes that exchanges are closest to the markets and thus “in the best position to manage limits. If implemented, these proposed rules could prevent people from hedging in the first place, or create the unintended consequence of pushing participants out of the best-regulated markets, into less-regulated markets that carry greater risk." end''"



P.M. Kitco Roundup: Gold Ends Modestly Lower On Bearish Outside Market Forces


Tuesday November 05, 2013 2:26 PM

(Kitco News) -

Quoting Jim Wyckoff
Gold prices ended the U.S. day session moderately lower Tuesday and gave up slight gains scored just after the futures market opened in New York. The key “outside markets” were bearish for the precious metals Tuesday, as the U.S. dollar index was higher and crude oil prices were lower. December Comex gold was last down $4.10 at $1,310.60 an ounce. Spot gold was last quoted down $3.70 at $1311.50. December Comex silver last traded steady at $21.70 an ounce.

Quoting Jim Wyckoff

" "contnd." The U.S. ISM non-manufacturing index came in stronger than expected Tuesday morning, and that gave the U.S. dollar index a boost which in turn put moderate downside price pressure on the gold market. Thez better ISM reading also somewhat stoked fears the Federal Reserve could make a move sooner to begin “tapering” its quantitative easing of monetary policy. The next FOMC meeting is in December.


Nymex crude oil futures slumped to a more-than-four-month low Tuesday. The solid price downtrend in crude oil remains a bearish underlying factor not only for the precious metals but also for the entire raw commodity sector. It would not surprise me to see more downside price pressure in the crude oil market in the coming weeks.

Economic news out of China overnight showed its services PMI rose to 52.6 in October from 52.4 the previous month. This continues a string of mostly upbeat economic data coming out of China the past few months. China’s Communist party meets this week, during which time major plans and economic reforms are unveiled by the leaders of the country. The world market place will be closely watching for any proclamations coming from that confab. "end " "



Gold Prices Could Drop Thursday As It Is Only A Matter Of Time Before ECB Cuts Rates

Quote
Although the European Central Bank is not expected to cut interest rates when they meet on Thursday, some analysts believe that it is only a matter of time before rates are lowered, dragging down the euro and gold prices.

Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, said there has been a major shift in expectations ahead of Thursday’s meeting. He pointed out that calls for a rate cut started after the release of much weaker-than-expected inflation data.



" " contd." On Oct. 31, the European Union reported that inflation for October dropped to 0.7% year-over-year. It was the lowest inflation reading since November 2009. Many analysts have pointed out that this is well below the central bank’s inflation target of 2%.

Although expectations of a rate cut continue to build, Hansen said that he is not expecting the ECB to cut interest rates on Thursday. However, he added the central bank could end up trying to talk rates down instead.

“Obviously they will have to address the issue of falling inflation,” he said. 'end""

By Neils Christensen of Kitco News
Tuesday November 05, 2013 3:58 PM



"XTrade-- Operative word here is "could" --------- Just because the Euro drops on a rate cut does NOT mean Gold has to drop. It might, but does not Have To.


XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #27,643
  • Nov 6, 2013 12:57am Nov 6, 2013 12:57am
Quoting venzen
i'm having a slow transition adjusting from bullish to bearish mindset... although i thought 1292 was our max downside target all along, now PA is showing intentions to smash down further... if it turns up that'll be better for my head but no use hoping and fighting the obvious i guess... let's see.

First bearish objective in my view is maintaing a few closes below 1305/1295 none of which have happened yet, not that we aren't far away, but as of yet they have
not happened.

Another thing I was thinking about,
is looking at the lows,
1180, appx 1280, and appx 1250/60 the last two didn't come close to cracking even 1225 - and although 1250 was lower than 1280, the highs are getting tighter, as well, essentially squeezing us into an even tighter range.
- All the while time is passing, and as more time passes with sideway movement the more minor DTLs gold will range through or break even if the price drops.
So using the past low @ 1250 and the last high around 1360 we are in about a 100 USD+ trading range AT the moment. It could all change in a week,

Yet even if the price drops down again, what will happen next!?! - Will we simply bump back up in the range, break out, or continue to coil up range through the last set of short term DTLs then explode?!!

One thing is for certain if the price continues to range and tighten up we will explode one way or another.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #27,644
  • Nov 6, 2013 1:20am Nov 6, 2013 1:20am
MACD Bearish Divergences on M30 & H1
Pivot Support 1305
Asia reversing so go down
  • #27,645
  • Nov 6, 2013 1:27am Nov 6, 2013 1:27am
Quoting XTrade
{quote} First bearish objective in my view is maintaing a few closes below 1305/1295 none of which have happened yet, not that we aren't far away, but as of yet they have not happened. Another thing I was thinking about, is looking at the lows, 1180, appx 1280, and appx 1250/60 the last two didn't come close to cracking even 1225 - and although 1250 was lower than 1280, the highs are getting tighter, as well, essentially squeezing us into an even tighter range. - All the while time is passing, and as more time passes with sideway movement the more...

hi XTrade,

Indeed, i noticed the narrowing range when i was consolidating my charts this morning... As it is we are bang in the centre of the range right now - which is also the midpoint of the Jul-Aug uptrend. So consolidation seems the keyword and I would not be surprised if PA continues this process through December in a contracting triangle pivoting around 1306.

The case for Gold is therefore neither bullish nor bearish, but consolidative: I guess we pull out our range trading strategies. Figuring out what happens after the triangle completes is our task and we have plenty of time to gather clues. My initial guess is a triangle breakout to the downside, a last low for the Cycle degree correction since 2011 and then a action-packed journey to the Gold 2000s.

Alternatively, an immediate decline below 1250 will speed up the process since consolidation will be cut short. But it is difficult to make a case for there NOT being a lengthy consolidation - the fundamentals, DXY and equality of conviction in both bullish and bearish camps - all point to a balance of forces right now.
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #27,646
  • Nov 6, 2013 1:34am Nov 6, 2013 1:34am
Magnetic line targets, Fib' ext'n's, HnS. What more do we need.??............
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Money Makes Money
  • #27,647
  • Nov 6, 2013 1:35am Nov 6, 2013 1:35am
In amendment to the last post - Looking CLOSELY at the last lows It is clear actually there is a common ground of 1270

1270 is the reaction low of the bottom of the wick on the second to last dip where the candle made a bullish hammer and the price resumed north to appx 1430

1270 is also the candle body low of the last dip where the reaction low/wick went to appx 1250.

So in turn the support is true at 1270 both candles were either above or settled in the area.

Here is the chart also with the DTLs. - There is one mid term possibility I have not drawn because it will involve cutting through price and is not important ATM.

Also the top DTL only has two points that connect it, so I am not too concerned about it for future resistance.
Plus the only reason I have four mid term ones was in response to a fellow who draw a line that used wicks, no price, candle bodies, no price then put the last data point as the top of the last high.
For one execution:
I drew the same line using consistent wicks and price action and there was a clear flip after the last high - the past three weekly bars all form above the line.
For the other execution:
I used only two candle body tops and it resulted in no more intersection of price as of yet. They all can clearly be seen on the chart.
we could easily range out of these even if a new low is made.

Lastly the only low to hit a long term UP Trend Line was the reaction (wick low) that hit 1180 then closed the candle body around 1200.
none of the others have come back to the UTL to test. The UTLS are in blue.

---------------------------
Also for KADC I added the volume - It's in the top toolbar as it is with chartstation, how accurate it is, I have to check.
I need to look back at your other question.
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XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #27,648
  • Nov 6, 2013 2:01am Nov 6, 2013 2:01am
I think
Gold Today see 1225-1230
Then start downtrend and see 1290-1270
again with Friday News start Uptrend
  • #27,649
  • Nov 6, 2013 2:11am Nov 6, 2013 2:11am
This should shed some light on the recent PA highs and lows.

I have made some areas of significant support and resistance all of which have been hit and observed before.
- Simply look back to the left side of the chart for the lower ones and follow them across to the right.
- for the Higher price lines look at the middle of the chart, for instance 1800 1675 and 1560 all define a long range the price went through after the price made the all time high in the 1900s..

The second chart has just for fun has fibos added on top in a shade of blue to see where they correspond to my lines.
All pretty close - Usually I have some that are dead on but, the way I added my S/R on this chart was slightly different than my usual method...
last chart giving me a headache now!! time to clean up the toys.
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XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #27,650
  • Nov 6, 2013 2:16am Nov 6, 2013 2:16am
Quoting naser007
I think Gold Today see 1225-1230 Then start downtrend and see 1290-1270 again with Friday News start Uptrend
And why is gold going to drop some 80 odd dollars in a day??

And you do realize that if a downtrend starts by hitting 1225 that 1290 is another huge 65 USD swing UP.

This is a bit wild considering we've been moving about 20 USD
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #27,651
  • Nov 6, 2013 2:41am Nov 6, 2013 2:41am
I think that the naser007 had in mind 1325 - 1330.
  • #27,652
  • Nov 6, 2013 3:06am Nov 6, 2013 3:06am
Oh it went up again, do u guys think it still going down after all this bounce up?
  • #27,653
  • Nov 6, 2013 3:26am Nov 6, 2013 3:26am
Yeah there is likely going to be a large symmetrical triangle that forms on the charts - well, not too large, but I suppose with no new highs or lows surpassing 1430 area and no new lows below 1180 we'll likely be working with about a 250 USD width.

IF - the price were to somehow hit 1550 or even 1500 area 50% FIBO retrace with origins 1920 to 1180 - we would essentially be working with that.
Likewise if it makes a new low...

More often than not in the past couple of years when we get a decent sym T on the daily it has broken north. BUT, that was also closer to and after the 1920 high. Now we certainly have the downside risk to consider. There is one in the thread beginning the price was in the High 1000's or maybe 1100 I have to check.
Yet, as you said there is plenty of time to strategize.

If no breaks occur soon we could easily range our way into the new year! Then wait for an explosion. I really love trading these patterns - there are so many ways to slay the same cat here. Even for newbies with a little guidance orders can be set to catch the upside break and the downside break with low risk.

SO, as boring as it will be building up, it would be fun to trade.

Quoting venzen
{quote} hi XTrade, Indeed, i noticed the narrowing range when i was consolidating my charts this morning... As it is we are bang in the centre of the range right now - which is also the midpoint of the Jul-Aug uptrend. So consolidation seems the keyword and I would not be surprised if PA continues this process through December in a contracting triangle pivoting around 1306. The case for Gold is therefore neither bullish nor bearish, but consolidative: I guess we pull out our range trading strategies. Figuring out what happens after the triangle...
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #27,654
  • Nov 6, 2013 3:29am Nov 6, 2013 3:29am
Quoting twinklestars
Oh it went up again, do u guys think it still going down after all this bounce up?
Never thought it was going down. Just open to the possibility.. There is US unemployment, GDP, NFP, etc., all yet to come out this week so it will likely remain a bit dead
until the first release on Thursday.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #27,655
  • Nov 6, 2013 3:34am Nov 6, 2013 3:34am
Looking at the daily we could probably incorporate the old high of 1460 into the possible symmetrical Triangle.


Quoting XTrade
Yeah there is likely going to be a large symmetrical triangle that forms on the charts - well, not too large, but I suppose with no new highs or lows surpassing 1430 area and no new lows below 1180 we'll likely be working with about a 250 USD width. IF - the price were to somehow hit 1550 or even 1500 area 50% FIBO retrace with origins 1920 to 1180 - we would essentially be working with that. Likewise if it makes a new low... More often than not in the past couple of years when we get a decent sym T on the daily it has broken north. BUT, that was...
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #27,656
  • Nov 6, 2013 3:37am Nov 6, 2013 3:37am
The chart is confusing right now, will not trade maybe until NFP
  • #27,657
  • Nov 6, 2013 3:38am Nov 6, 2013 3:38am
I'm looking - but I really don't see much of a head and shoulders here.

It looks like PA bobbing up and down to me! IDK - here is what it looks like on my chart.

Quoting KiwiOz
Magnetic line targets, Fib' ext'n's, HnS. What more do we need.??............ {image} {image}
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XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #27,658
  • Nov 6, 2013 4:00am Nov 6, 2013 4:00am
Yesterday took long from 1306 with tight stop loss. Got out 1312. Now just looking price action. Might take long or short position from support or resistance zones.
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  • #27,659
  • Nov 6, 2013 4:05am Nov 6, 2013 4:05am
Quoting XTrade
This should shed some light on the recent PA highs and lows. I have made some areas of significant support and resistance all of which have been hit and observed before. - Simply look back to the left side of the chart for the lower ones and follow them across to the right. - for the Higher price lines look at the middle of the chart, for instance 1800 1675 and 1560 all define a long range the price went through after the price made the all time high in the 1900s.. The second chart has just for fun has fibos added on top in a shade of blue to see...

Thanks for these.

Going up, it looks like the 1560 - 1650 is going to be a massive contention zone.

There is also the infamous old "support floor" at 1527 which should now become tough resistance, yet the guideline of excluding the candle wicks when drawing S/R means we don't really "figure" it... Once through there - that's when things will get more volatile i reckon.
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #27,660
  • Nov 6, 2013 4:26am Nov 6, 2013 4:26am
I would agree with XTrade, XAU is in a gray tightening consolidation area right now, although just bounced from the upper line, so I rather see it going down for now. I had a long, but closed it just in case and won´t open any more until it clearly breaks either direction.
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