XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread
{quote} hehehehe it's weekend XT, just do the TA on next Monday.... see you on Monday my friend DRT
buddy{quote} Hi, Xtrader So we could say that right now market is bearish right ? and price is going to test 12xx area ? I still have stacking orders 2 are red and 1 is green. Yesterday I open order when it test 1306 and bounce back up and get some profit but total I'm still minus. What should I do when the market open ? should I look for a opportunity to short ? or what should I do ? Do you have any suggestion for me. Thank you in advance I'm looking forward to hearing from you. Thanks {image}
Damn I just lost my entire post to you - I can't f---in believe this man, I used to hit delete & it would simply delete text, now sometimes it takes the entire page back to prior and when I hit forward my post would IS GONE- It used to stay up although not published.. Now, I guesss FunFactory decided to get rid of that. --------> $#!T! ------------> Any way........................
OK - No, I wouldn't say we are for certain moving down just because of the past two days.
If selling pressure was strong enough we would have broke through 1305 / 1300 into the high 1290s - instead we had a 10 USD upswing to close back around interim support @ 1315.
We have basically been moving sideways since 1280 & 1260 lows. The highs have not yet been in the 1400s again but we are getting closer.
The correction was imminent - from the last low, appx 1250, to the last high of appx 1360 the price has not given back more than appx 10/15 bucks at a clip -
which has only gotten bought up erasing the loss from the prior night usually, as we saw last week and this week.
There is still a major Down trend line (DTL) off the daily to break yet we don't need to be too concerned with that until we take out 1400.
So after a 100 USD move without any noteworthy profit taking (which decreases price) or correction, we can expect it to happen.
Here is where fibo's retracements can especially come in handy. Usually a 38.2 is hit on correction sometimes a 50% before continuing.
---------------> WILL add chart for this.
There is still downside risk, yet the fundamentals do not support it. And things are a bit skewed at the moment, because it seems either the fundies are getting priced in several days before the release and then sold on the day of... Sort of like a pump and dump or they are just not weighing in enough for outside reasons, like overall commodities trend, risk aversion, etc.
Even the techs are skewed - for instance your stoch is a bit high- but could still go higher and the MACD looks like a buy. (Yet - this is H1)
I prefer to look first at the price action and support and resistance levels first before ANY indicators.
On the / your H1 it is clear that the downside moved stopped at a support level of about 1305/6 - truer support than 1300 although a psych support.
Then the PA began to reverse, orders / trades likely got squashed and we went back up just around the next S/R to 1315/16 Bid/ask for the close.
Four ways to have been prepped - which I will show or use your chart to do so - for this move technically were as follows (and simple):
Again Looking at the H1:
1. There were two attempts to break 1358 really 1360 and close above which failed lightly. Suggests price may have hit a high for the week, lacks demand at that level.
2. A simple TL from the low 1250 area following the lows on the way up to the high 1358 (and - the highs if you like making a small channel)
---broke at around and tried to regain the line around 1340 price "rounded to whole #"
3. There was also Horizontal support at 1335/1340 that broke and was not regained.
4. Using the 50 - 100 and 200 SMAs - in this case the 50 and 100 -> cross. This also signaled a long and consistent buy areas for the entire trade.
----Usually I use them as back up for a trade, buy zones, and/or where to place stops as a suggestion.
Add these four techs up together ( or even using one solo) and you can expect a movement south if price is north.
Personally, I don't know what your risk is or if you are over-leveraged - but if you are using correct Risk Reward (RR) and MM money management- you should be able to absorb the the losses. Or not have taken all the trades.
SO, I would wait personally, if they were my trades, maybe watch the price on Sunday without opening up your broker, put it on TV or use a website.
Wouldn't do anything Sunday, might take clues on that for London, but really just wait until all markets are open so- Till an hour into NY. Sometimes things start during LDN sometimes NY open is wild. No way to tell.
Keep an eye on the news also.
Here is all "major" and "medium" impact news for the USD for next week. (Obviously it is important to keep in touch with other major / minor pairs countries' news as well. Yet I figured this would be a smaller "snap shot.'
Next I will try and recreate the chart on H1 again I just lost as well........
XT-
EDIT::: CH@RTS c0ming
At the moment, taper talks are useless as there are several reasons why they can't taper: 1- If they believe that US economy is too strong and they are all set to taper, they might yet not do it, as Ben is about to retire and he wont risk to taper as a wrong decision taken today will spoil his all efforts he did in the past. 2- As Ben is about the retire, FED will have to reaffirm their views with the new FED chairman Yellen, which might take some time, specially when Yellen is more supportive when it comes to QE's. 3- US shut down might have caused...
