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XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

  • #27,081
  • Oct 24, 2013 4:49am Oct 24, 2013 4:49am
A few releases today to keep an eye on.

Mainly Unemployment - again - LOL

and a very late "trade balance"
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XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #27,082
  • Oct 24, 2013 4:55am Oct 24, 2013 4:55am
I was just cleaning out my un-hit orders and unfortunately had to delete a failed EUR/USD trade.

trying to save I'd say at most 20 pips I put my order in for the lower end of the last range BEFORE the last break north which has resulted in a new high in the .3800s!!!

Stop was 75 pips and TP 140 which would have been hit in the high .379s or so...

I believe If I remember correctly - the original order was for a long just around 1.3660

today's high .3820 area..... OH WELL.

I suppose the point here is with these ranges we get into, depending on your RR and your target - trying to squeeze out every pip or in gold's case
saving a 5 USD move just ain't worth it in the end.

In an attempt to buy the range low, I lost out on a CLEAN 140 pips, sh!t I could have just bought the range top and made 120....

Quoting Rag2RichesFX
{quote} no problem. im not sure if we will see that last low or not. its a hard call to make. id rather keep my long though incase it doesnt come. it would be nice to buy in the $17s. if hits BE that is fine, ill look to buy again
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #27,083
  • Oct 24, 2013 5:30am Oct 24, 2013 5:30am
Quoting XTrade
I was just cleaning out my un-hit orders and unfortunately had to delete a failed EUR/USD trade. trying to save I'd say at most 20 pips I put my order in for the lower end of the last range BEFORE the last break north which has resulted in a new high in the .3800s!!! Stop was 75 pips and TP 140 which would have been hit in the high .379s or so... I believe If I remember correctly - the original order was for a long just around 1.3660 today's high .3820 area..... OH WELL. I suppose the point here is with these ranges we get into, depending on your...

I hear you XTrade. I cant count the number of times I have lost good trades because I was looking for a better price. Its all learning. I hate it but its learning all the same

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #27,084
  • Oct 24, 2013 5:40am Oct 24, 2013 5:40am
Quoting XTrade
, with mind you a real possibility now of making another high. It's a bit early yet with NY not open, yet the Asian London cross session has seemed to keep the momentum going. Seems noteworthy to mention silver has finally broken out of the \"cell\" that 21 had seemed to become and appears to be on track for an almost 2 USD gain. {image} {image}
Well there's the newest High at 1350 and silver @ 23.00

But, just tapping the zones isn't going to cut it, we need to break through them.

In any case it's looking good to me so far..

Unemployment up and the "late" trade balance below forecast.
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XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #27,085
  • Oct 24, 2013 6:12am Oct 24, 2013 6:12am
Unemployment up but gold is down, I think It must up. Why it happened?
  • #27,086
  • Oct 24, 2013 6:20am Oct 24, 2013 6:20am
A.M. Kitco Metals Roundup: Gold Up, At 4-Week High, on Technical Momentum And Weaker U.S. Dollar

Quoting Jim Wyckoff
Technically, December gold futures bulls and bears are on an overall level near-term technical playing field at present, but the bulls have the momentum on their side. The gold bulls’ next upside near-term price breakout objective is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at $1,353.80. Bears' next near-term downside breakout price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $1,300.00. First resistance is seen at $1,350.00 and then at $1,353.80. First support is seen at the overnight low of $1,330.20 and then at $1,320.00.


Market Looking For Fuel


Quote
[color=#000000][font=Arial]Markets continue to tread water awaiting something, anything, that will create sustained momentum. Gold traded in a $10 range overnight, but continues to have a firmish (like that word) bias. Continue to see the channel between $1,325 and $1,355, with a break of either side, good for another $20 move. When we look back a few months when gold broke down through significant support at $1,425 and settled into a sideways pattern in the $1,370’s until the continued slide, what was the landscape like? At the $1,375 ish level,...
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #27,087
  • Oct 24, 2013 6:24am Oct 24, 2013 6:24am
Yeah buddy

When I am managing various pairs on top of Gold and Silver I try to be less impulsive (even though I may /or may not/ be correct, I will take more time in planning the trade and it's according stop and TP instead of just going to market and piecing it together afterwards.

Often I find when looking for a setup It's nice to take the trade during either the Aussie or Asian or the cross / even if the rate is higher again, what's a few pips when shooting for 100+...

Quoting Olu
{quote} I hear you XTrade. I cant count the number of times I have lost good trades because I was looking for a better price. Its all learning. I hate it but its learning all the same Olu
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #27,088
  • Oct 24, 2013 6:42am Oct 24, 2013 6:42am
Was expecting a fall in Silver...But they don't want to let it happen yet
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #27,089
  • Oct 24, 2013 7:10am Oct 24, 2013 7:10am
Quoting kuroro001
Was expecting a fall in Silver...But they don't want to let it happen yet

Why were you looking for a fall? Just on correction?

Also 22.80 I believe is a bit of a "bitch" resistance wise. Once it gets taken out the transition into the 23's should be fairly smooth.

However, If it can't really stay north of it the price is / and always is / subject to correct, which in any market is healthy.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #27,090
  • Oct 24, 2013 7:41am Oct 24, 2013 7:41am
this is a best guess at this point... have one small long position left though in case we continue up
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Don't have an ego. Always question yourself and your ability.
  • #27,091
  • Oct 24, 2013 7:46am Oct 24, 2013 7:46am
Quoting XTrade
{quote} Why were you looking for a fall? Just on correction? Also 22.80 I believe is a bit of a \"bitch\" resistance wise. Once it gets taken out the transition into the 23's should be fairly smooth. However, If it can't really stay north of it the price is / and always is / subject to correct, which in any market is healthy.
Yes correction down to 22,0x...maybe down to 21,1x.

Based on the h1 chart....but the fact it's staying up there with all the h1 rejection is not good. I'll still try a small one with stop on highs
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #27,092
  • Oct 24, 2013 8:13am Oct 24, 2013 8:13am
Quoting kuroro001
{quote} Yes correction down to 22,0x...maybe down to 21,1x. Based on the h1 chart....but the fact it's staying up there with all the h1 rejection is not good. I'll still try a small one with stop on highs

Things would have to change drastically for silver to drop more than 50+ cents in a day. It's possible it will retest 21.00 area, but if the upwards momentum continues and it crosses into the 23 zone I would think the corrections will be basic and small at best. Today is a decent day and it's up only about 20 cents.

See how the day fizzles out, it will likely create a range, then draw some quick S/R levels, she might give some back overnight.

But gold is now on the verge of pushing through 1350 and if she can close above the next immediate resistance is @1353 which will likely go if the close is strong.

At this point - You might be better off just waiting for a dip and buying rather than trying to outsmart the trend for a small move.

At least that way if the price breaks out again, you'll be positioned accordingly.

Some profit taking should occur on Friday, (never any guarantees in this game ) so if you are dying to short might wait till then.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #27,093
  • Oct 24, 2013 8:21am Oct 24, 2013 8:21am
Quoting kuroro001
{quote} Yes correction down to 22,0x...maybe down to 21,1x. Based on the h1 chart....but the fact it's staying up there with all the h1 rejection is not good. I'll still try a small one with stop on highs

You could keep an eye on 22.30 in the immediate sense for correction as it might offer minor support. But that would also wipe out the last nice gain.

So here is a tight range to play if you want to scalp. Say 22.40/45 to 22.80 at current. Picture below.
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XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #27,094
  • Oct 24, 2013 8:45am Oct 24, 2013 8:45am
Quoting kuroro001
{quote} Yes correction down to 22,0x...maybe down to 21,1x. Based on the h1 chart....but the fact it's staying up there with all the h1 rejection is not good. I'll still try a small one with stop on highs
Hey Kuroro.. Good to see you on this thread mate! Are you still the PA master?
Luck has no place in trading. Leave that for the poker table.
  • #27,095
  • Oct 24, 2013 8:52am Oct 24, 2013 8:52am
Quoting XTrade
{quote} You could keep an eye on 22.30 in the immediate sense for correction as it might offer minor support. But that would also wipe out the last nice gain. So here is a tight range to play if you want to scalp. Say 22.40/45 to 22.80 at current. Picture below. {image} {image}
whats about gold is that good to sell 1350 with 1370 stop loss?????
  • #27,096
  • Oct 24, 2013 9:15am Oct 24, 2013 9:15am
Quoting umair55
{quote} whats about gold is that good to sell 1350 with 1370 stop loss?????

I really have to suggest waiting, she is LITERALLY in the process of breaking through the resistance,
Once and if 1350 & 3 are flipped and sealed they shouldn't give way too easily especially if the gains keep up.

If they are meager than it might go.

The wiser trade would be either buy a dip and ride this - or wait to see how far past she can get,
take a look at tonight and tomorrow for some profit taking opportunities,

but the money is getting made on the longs at current, so I tend to say go with the trend instead of taking small shorts you have to close out.

The next major resistance area should be provided at 1420.

Likely there will be some correction, yet if it's just going to result in renewed buying taking the long on the dip just seems to be smarter to me...

However that's me.

Also if the numbers keep printing negatively and the buck continues it's dive it's pretty much going to continue north.

Silver looks like it's going to take 22.80

I added at 1330 and am holding from sub 1300.
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XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #27,097
  • Oct 24, 2013 9:18am Oct 24, 2013 9:18am
Quoting xtrade
{quote} i really have to suggest waiting, she is literally in the process of breaking through the resistance, once and if 1350 & 3 are flipped and sealed they shouldn't give way too easily especially if the gains keep up. If they are meager than it might go. The wiser trade would be either buy a dip and ride this - or wait to see how far past she can get, take a look at tonight and tomorrow for some profit taking opportunities, but the money is getting made on the longs at current, so i tend to say go with the trend instead of taking small shorts...
thanks alot bro for ur assistance
  • #27,098
  • Edited 10:02am Oct 24, 2013 9:32am | Edited 10:02am
Weekly (not shown), gold is approaching 50 RSI, possibly when price hits the descending trend line (red on the daily below). The mid-line (blue) is my target for a "real" pull-back, doubly so if it coincides with descending resistance (red) and triply so if daily RSI is at 60 as that is frequently a reactive level, quadruply if weekly RSI is at 50 which is a key reversal level.

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8-hour (below) is just to show the current ascending channel gold seems to be in, the Fibonacci for this full move down (black), and the Fibonacci for the prior full move up (purple) being disregarded by current price action.

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The hourly (below) is a bit busy, but you can see that gold first extended down 27% past the first "real" pullback then up 27% past the initial high as it often does when it consolidates after a move. Gold has now broken above this consolidation zone so I would expect that the next move up has begun and I've moved my stop to below the top of the consolidation zone. If gold had remained in this zone I'd have left my stop at the intersection of 50% Fibonacci of this range, just below ascending support (dark blue).

The light blue parallels (only the primary lines shown for clarity) have proven to be good support/resistance for these last two moves and indeed price pulled back upon hitting the upper trend line. With this gradual rise in price I wouldn't be surprised to see a pull-back to a parallel from the 7 a.m. high or possibly all the way back to the top of the consolidation zone.

The current break-out move seems to be confined to the ascending purple fractal channel, a breach of which to the downside indicating gold will likely consolidate again.

Hourly RSI has broken descending resistance twice, the first indicating a change of trend from downward to upward or sideways movement and the second indicating greater upward movement which I suspected would be a break out of the consolidation zone.

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update: I decided to lock in $20 movement from my entry which just triggered. I don't think it's going much higher today so I'll wait for a pull-back to re-enter.
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #27,099
  • Edited 9:57am Oct 24, 2013 9:46am | Edited 9:57am
Quoting umair55
{quote} whats about gold is that good to sell 1350 with 1370 stop loss?????
Without knowing your system or how you choose your entry point, with $1,370 as a stop loss I'm going to guess that is based on Fibonacci and/or prior highs in which case I'd suggest you place your stop at $1,376, just above the August 18th high as $1,370 seems like a stop that is guaranteed to take you out of your trade just before price action reverses. If I guessed correctly about using former highs, then I'd suggest you place your stop at $1,354 instead, just above the August 28th high. That said, a $20 range is rather extreme for a scalping stop loss and there's no indication that the current bull trend has reversed to warrant longer-term shorting, but good luck with your trade.
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #27,100
  • Oct 24, 2013 10:05am Oct 24, 2013 10:05am
nice break off DTL
BUT
I see a good resistance @1351
with divergence on MACD and almost RSI
I think selling @1341 with SL@1360 and TP @1310 is fair for this chart
Breaking 1351 buy chance with a SL@1330 Tp@1400
that what I think
any feedback I'll be thankful
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