Hi everyone,
The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.
S&P-500
COT Change (52W) / C – 44%, LS - 36%, SS - 26% /
The large change in Trader’s positions may shake prices a bit (we could see declining prices), but in the medium/long term, I don’t see, why prices could not rally further. Since the last major cot extreme, prices are again going higher/stress levels are decreasing. I may be wrong, but I would expect a larger, close to All-Time cot extreme to signal the top.
British Pound
COT Change (52W) / C – 24%, LS - 28%, SS - 11% /
The cot change and the relative extreme in the market may put an end to the rally. The fact that only Small Speculators are optimistic about the rally is also a bearish signal. Of course one may argue: stress levels in British Pound are not at their peak levels yet, thus prices can rally further… well, as always, I urge everyone to look not only at the cot data, but use it together with other TA tools. Simply looking at a longer chart, it is clearly visible, that prices are not far from important resistance levels.
Corn
COT Extreme / C-448 report, LS – 449 report COT extreme /
If we look at a longer chart, we can see that all obvious bottoms in prices correlated with major cot extremes, when commercials were net long. This is the situation right now.
I wish all of you good luck to this week’s trading,
All the best,
Dunstan
the original COT reportCOT chartsCommitments of Traders basics
The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.
S&P-500
COT Change (52W) / C – 44%, LS - 36%, SS - 26% /
The large change in Trader’s positions may shake prices a bit (we could see declining prices), but in the medium/long term, I don’t see, why prices could not rally further. Since the last major cot extreme, prices are again going higher/stress levels are decreasing. I may be wrong, but I would expect a larger, close to All-Time cot extreme to signal the top.
British Pound
COT Change (52W) / C – 24%, LS - 28%, SS - 11% /
The cot change and the relative extreme in the market may put an end to the rally. The fact that only Small Speculators are optimistic about the rally is also a bearish signal. Of course one may argue: stress levels in British Pound are not at their peak levels yet, thus prices can rally further… well, as always, I urge everyone to look not only at the cot data, but use it together with other TA tools. Simply looking at a longer chart, it is clearly visible, that prices are not far from important resistance levels.
Corn
COT Extreme / C-448 report, LS – 449 report COT extreme /
If we look at a longer chart, we can see that all obvious bottoms in prices correlated with major cot extremes, when commercials were net long. This is the situation right now.
I wish all of you good luck to this week’s trading,
All the best,
Dunstan
the original COT reportCOT chartsCommitments of Traders basics