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XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

  • #25,161
  • Sep 9, 2013 10:29pm Sep 9, 2013 10:29pm
Although I don't like to include too many "bumps" or "mini shoulders" I suppose if S2 were to form from 1460 neck to appx 1360 like the spike across from the head (next to S1 now) -- which would move to the left where the sharper drop then gain is we could have a secondary scenario for the INV - HS. But we'll see, sometimes they look perfect and never complete. I do like the fact that it is on the daily.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #25,162
  • Sep 10, 2013 2:44am Sep 10, 2013 2:44am
I have no clear bias on gold right now. Expecting it to move lower to support zone before next leg higher.
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  • #25,163
  • Sep 10, 2013 3:00am Sep 10, 2013 3:00am
I think this is the road of GOLD until Ben say end of QE or USA attack Syria
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  • #25,164
  • Sep 10, 2013 7:01am Sep 10, 2013 7:01am
Quoting cg uno
{quote} coiling for a move maybe?
And move it has.

Not good for the bulls.

Silver is giving way $23 support area.

Gold will probably give on $1352-1359 zone.

If it does no support for $20 - or more.
  • #25,165
  • Sep 10, 2013 7:42am Sep 10, 2013 7:42am
Gold bounced off hourly RSI support so $1357.50 is close enough to the rising price support line for me to take profit. It also forms a double bottom with Friday though there's no strong move back up so it may touch down again to consolidate in this area. I'll wait for the bull channel trendline to prove supportive or give way before placing another full order but I may take a small position short from $1363ish if 5-min RSI looks promising to scalp back to $1357.50 then reverse the position before London closes and hold the long with a stop loss just below the bull support line since the preponderance of technical indicators show this level being very supportive.

Silver breaking 23 has entered a previous consolidation zone which bottoms around 22.25 before entering the next consolidation zone beneath it so I'm making 22.25 my entry target to add to my USLV investment.
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #25,166
  • Sep 10, 2013 8:02am Sep 10, 2013 8:02am
Quoting SunTrader
{quote} And move it has.
yup - took a small long from pretty much the low as a result of beeb's old abcd from a while back - gone to b/e stop
  • #25,167
  • Sep 10, 2013 10:03am Sep 10, 2013 10:03am
Little tender of a spot. A true test now of the channel bottom has occurred. Looks like the 50 and 100 H4 smas are acting as floating resistance "for now" and the 200 is still offering support.

Buck is up slightly today.

On a dip 1350/45 will come in as immediate support. So it looks like it could go either way here.

Personally I don't see a breach yet, but we all know sometimes gold just moves sideways in range right out of working technical levels..

Could be a great area to go long shooting for retest of 1425 with low risk reward. THen channel top with time would suggest appx 1475.

Wouldn't look for any shorts until below 1350 to target 1310 or less in the daily sense. ie: (a day or 3)

On the daily and H4 two taps on 1358 have been noted with no follow through as of yet and we are still enjoying support from the 50 and 100 DMAs.

The PA looks repetitious so far and would "suggest" price area to be the end of the recent correction and time for a new leg up to begin resembling the past movement.

See second chart for possible repetitive price scenario, Although I am just speculating. We are on some decent support areas now so If they & the channel hold we should be good to move upwards.


Again, a break down would be suggested on failure of the 100 & 50 DMAs and a dip below the DTL we are riding above at current.
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XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #25,168
  • Sep 10, 2013 10:10am Sep 10, 2013 10:10am
Quoting SunTrader
{quote} And move it has. Not good for the bulls. Silver is giving way $23 support area. Gold will probably give on $1352-1359 zone. If it does no support for $20 - or more.
If support holds then it is great for bulls! why do you think support wont hold? Funny mentals as you say?
  • #25,169
  • Sep 10, 2013 10:16am Sep 10, 2013 10:16am
Quoting Wheels
{quote} If support holds then it is great for bulls! why do you think support wont hold? Funny mentals as you say?

I think support should hold at 1350. Even if the price were to dip out of the channel it should be retaken fairly easily.

Longer term I am still shooting for a test of 1550 and as of now on the flipside don't see much below a test of 1310 if 1350 goes.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #25,170
  • Sep 10, 2013 6:15pm Sep 10, 2013 6:15pm
Quoting Wheels
{quote} If support holds then it is great for bulls! why do you think support wont hold? Funny mentals as you say?
Actually I was probably premature with that comment. As many have said already, probably sideways for a while longer.

Funnies hold sway over the long term.

Edit: maybe not premature, another late eve drop going on.
  • #25,171
  • Edited 10:20pm Sep 10, 2013 8:31pm | Edited 10:20pm
I did take that short and exited it at $1358 and reversed it to long on 5-minute RSI confirmation at $1,360. The long wick of the candle that retested the low indicates strong rejection from that level, at least in the near term.

I added to that position on the test of $1,366 from above (admittedly premature but it was prior resistance now support at 76.4% -- note futures prices I tread are slightly off from the spot prices on this chart) and moved stop to just under $1,363 (prior support and the close price for the day).

As long as the rising RSI hourly support holds (solid blue line), my upside target is $1,394 (100% move), then some sideways shenanigans with a push down to $1,386 (28.6%) before another test of $1,394 which will then be at the descending fractal channel resistance (solid red price trend line).

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An interesting but not necessarily useful observation: All moves in this fractal channel and at least a few leading up to it have been roughly $38, which I noticed because I've only had to move my Fibonacci and barely tweak it, not redraw it, on my other computer for the past couple of weeks. It may support the notion of a 100% move up, and if so, placing at at the bottom of the pull back may indicate the next upside target.

Perhaps if back-traced it might prove more significant, but for now it's just a casual observation.
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #25,172
  • Edited 11:37pm Sep 10, 2013 11:15pm | Edited 11:37pm
Quoting cg uno
{quote} yup - took a small long from pretty much the low as a result of beeb's old abcd from a while back - gone to b/e stop
stopped out overnight at b/e ......

i agree with the considered comments above that we are at an area of possible support so my bias is to be looking for potential trading and swing longs on lower timeframes.

edit - should also say that i subscribe to a service and cannot obviously reprint the comments/reasons that i get from there
  • #25,173
  • Sep 11, 2013 3:14am Sep 11, 2013 3:14am
Here's Ben Bernanke's role and the myth of tapering.

Inserted Video
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #25,174
  • Sep 11, 2013 3:38am Sep 11, 2013 3:38am
Quoting SunTrader
{quote} Actually I was probably premature with that comment. As many have said already, probably sideways for a while longer. Funnies hold sway over the long term. Edit: maybe not premature, another late eve drop going on.
Fair enough!
  • #25,175
  • Sep 11, 2013 4:01am Sep 11, 2013 4:01am
Quoting KADC
Here's Ben Bernanke's role and the myth of tapering. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9ZdBF0sA0vw
These guys are really funny. Thanks for sharing.
  • #25,176
  • Sep 11, 2013 4:47am Sep 11, 2013 4:47am
The push down at 6:00 a.m. EST was timed to coincide with the Bloomberg release of the Goldman Sachs misdirection {ahem} I mean comments that the FED -will- taper (see the video two posts earlier for my opinion on that) and was made with orders in the futures market as spot prices not only trailed, there were moments in the noise between the two legs when spot was rising while futures were falling.

Goldman Sachs is wrong (if you believe any of their comments are earnest) so often that their pronouncements can almost be considered a technical signal to do the opposite, but we'll see what happens in a week.

I held on too long when the hourly RSI support failed and got out at roughly break-even, then re-entered long when gold touched rising price channel support so at least the move was constructive in that I got in at a better entry point.

A breach of price trend-line support and I'm out pending a test of $1,350, a break of which will have me going short, but until then I remain long with an initial $1,394 upside target.
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #25,177
  • Sep 11, 2013 9:31am Sep 11, 2013 9:31am
Slow day today, but support is stilll holding as of yet.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #25,178
  • Sep 11, 2013 9:33am Sep 11, 2013 9:33am
Unless I am scalping I usually never move my stop to BE with gold due to the chances of the majority of any move up or down, almost always goes back to test the break point, in return stopping you out if moved to BE then usually moving 5 bucks at least in your favor.

What area was the long entry? If you want to disclose. IF not no prob.

Quoting cg uno
{quote} stopped out overnight at b/e ...... i agree with the considered comments above that we are at an area of possible support so my bias is to be looking for potential trading and swing longs on lower timeframes. edit - should also say that i subscribe to a service and cannot obviously reprint the comments/reasons that i get from there
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #25,179
  • Sep 11, 2013 9:41am Sep 11, 2013 9:41am
Quoting XTrade
Unless I am scalping I usually never move my stop to BE with gold due to the chances of the majority of any move up or down, almost always goes back to test the break point, in return stopping you out if moved to BE then usually moving 5 bucks at least in your favor. What area was the long entry? If you want to disclose. IF not no prob. {quote}

i don't think it's a problem since you've already posted beeb's chart here. entry was 1359 futures with an initial $2 stop that i moved to b/e and was stopped on overnight uk time. as i subscribe to his service i don't think it fair to add to this if that's ok.
  • #25,180
  • Edited 11:01am Sep 11, 2013 10:49am | Edited 11:01am
Quoting XTrade
Slow day today, but support is stilll holding as of yet.
The way price is turning, it looks like support is in fact holding: http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.html

Technical indicators mixed, slightly in favour of a buy, while moving averages mostly still indicate a sell signal: http://www.investing.com/commodities/gold-technical

If this channel holds, longs still make sense to me. Never out of the woods unless conclusive price action moves us back toward resistance. I have learned more in the past few months than in previous years. It has been a great opportunity to watch the way price action and technical indicators interact.
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