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XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

  • #25,121
  • Sep 8, 2013 4:00pm Sep 8, 2013 4:00pm
Seems to me this is digesting the move up from the lows and will do for the next month, taking out bulls and bears, whipping around. I'd expect maybe a test of the swing high but how it reacts when it gets there will be most important; do the sellers come in at 1425/30 forcing it down or does it close strong and clear of the high, which would suggest maybe a move to 1450. That's my thinking.
Still, I think gold is in a bear market, it's fooked, just like silver, but hey that's just my feeling. Still seems that Mr Average Retail Trader and Mr Average Retail Investor and Mr Average Retail Tinfoil Hat Wearer is overwhelmingly predisposed to be long gold and believe in the gold bull thesis; it seems nothing can dissuade people from these views, which is fine by me, I just think that thesis is wrong. Still, I might very well be wrong instead; that's what makes a market.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #25,122
  • Sep 8, 2013 4:38pm Sep 8, 2013 4:38pm
Quoting Boy Wonder
Still, I think gold is in a bear market, it's fooked, just like silver, but hey that's just my feeling. Still seems that Mr Average Retail Trader and Mr Average Retail Investor and Mr Average Retail Tinfoil Hat Wearer is overwhelmingly predisposed to be long gold and believe in the gold bull thesis; it seems nothing can dissuade people from these views, which is fine by me, I just think that thesis is wrong. Still, I might very well be wrong instead; that's what makes a market.
why is it fooked?

the average investor has never even heard of gold let alone invested in it ........
  • #25,123
  • Sep 8, 2013 4:45pm Sep 8, 2013 4:45pm
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  • #25,124
  • Sep 8, 2013 4:46pm Sep 8, 2013 4:46pm
Yeah Friend Gold market is really Emerging ...I am looking forward to have a chit chat with the succesfull trader who trade in Gold and Forex and Earn a lot of money ...!

Do I know YOu SIR...looking forward for the best traders in the World...
  • #25,125
  • Sep 8, 2013 4:46pm Sep 8, 2013 4:46pm
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  • #25,126
  • Sep 8, 2013 4:55pm Sep 8, 2013 4:55pm
Quoting cg uno
{quote} why is it fooked? the average investor has never even heard of gold let alone invested in it ........
Fair comment.
Average investor is probably either the wrong term or too imprecise a term. Let's say, the average investor who cares about and has an opinion on the directional bias of the price of gold.
I am aware one of the standing arguments (let's not call it a delusion) of the gold bulls is that we are still a long way from any kind of real mass buying of gold by the public, and hence, the top cannot possibly be in. It will only be in apparently when virtually everybody is falling over him- or herself to buy the shiny stuff.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #25,127
  • Sep 8, 2013 4:56pm Sep 8, 2013 4:56pm
Quoting Boy Wonder
{quote} Fair comment. Average investor is probably either the wrong term or too imprecise a term. Let's say, the average investor who cares about and has an opinion on the directional bias of the price of gold. I am aware one of the standing arguments (let's not call it a delusion) of the gold bulls is that we are still a long way from any kind of real mass buying of gold by the public, and hence, the top cannot possibly be in. It will only be in apparently when virtually everybody is falling over him- or herself to buy the shiny stuff.

but why is it fooked?
  • #25,128
  • Sep 8, 2013 5:08pm Sep 8, 2013 5:08pm
Quoting cg uno
{quote} but why is it fooked?
Have you seen the chart, like, in the last year?
Aside from that, I'm just voicing an opinion based on my assessment of where the global economy goes from here. There are other things, but, eh, I'm not going to write an essay. People do that over on SA and get excoriated for it by the bulls.
It's just an opinion. Like I say, I may be wrong. We could all be wrong. If you're a bull, forget I spoke, cheers.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #25,129
  • Sep 8, 2013 5:12pm Sep 8, 2013 5:12pm
Quoting Boy Wonder
{quote} Have you seen the chart, like, in the last year? Aside from that, I'm just voicing an opinion based on my assessment of where the global economy goes from here. There are other things, but, eh, I'm not going to write an essay. People do that over on SA and get excoriated for it by the bulls. It's just an opinion. Like I say, I may be wrong. We could all be wrong. If you're a bull, forget I spoke, cheers.
yes i've seen the chart - it's my how i make my living. i've traded it all the way down and i've been buying since the low ....

so it's not fooked in any way other than in your opinion ......

and you know what they say about opinions

SA?
  • #25,130
  • Sep 8, 2013 5:20pm Sep 8, 2013 5:20pm
Quoting Boy Wonder
{quote} Fair comment. Average investor is probably either the wrong term or too imprecise a term. Let's say, the average investor who cares about and has an opinion on the directional bias of the price of gold. I am aware one of the standing arguments (let's not call it a delusion) of the gold bulls is that we are still a long way from any kind of real mass buying of gold by the public, and hence, the top cannot possibly be in. It will only be in apparently when virtually everybody is falling over him- or herself to buy the shiny stuff.
September is traditionally "mass buying of gold by the public" season all across Asia. Additionally, jewellery manufacturers start their buying for Western demand for the Christmas season which is why it is typically the best month for gold. Furthermore, wholesalers simply are not selling gold (nor silver) at these prices creating growing shortage of physical gold and silver that would be foolish to ignore.

I've posted seasonality charts before -- here's one from U.S. Global Investors: http://www.usfunds.com/investor-reso.../#.Uiz3tz_CcU4
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #25,131
  • Sep 8, 2013 5:30pm Sep 8, 2013 5:30pm
What I would be interested in would be a chart of monthly gains/losses but by whether or not Gold was in a bull or bear phase.

Although it may or may not be enlightening.

For instance 2 years ago Sept down bigtime was the beginning of the bear phase. Then last year in the middle of the bear phase it was up a good amount. Right before it had another big drop.
  • #25,132
  • Sep 8, 2013 5:37pm Sep 8, 2013 5:37pm
Quoting cg uno
{quote} yes i've seen the chart - it's my how i make my living. i've traded it all the way down and i've been buying since the low .... so it's not fooked in any way other than in your opinion ...... and you know what they say about opinions SA?
You seem to be quite emotional about this. Are you?

SA=seekingalpha.com
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #25,133
  • Sep 8, 2013 6:02pm Sep 8, 2013 6:02pm
Quoting Boy Wonder
{quote} Have you seen the chart, like, in the last year? Aside from that, I'm just voicing an opinion based on my assessment of where the global economy goes from here. There are other things, but, eh, I'm not going to write an essay. People do that over on SA and get excoriated for it by the bulls. It's just an opinion. Like I say, I may be wrong. We could all be wrong. If you're a bull, forget I spoke, cheers.
Those of us who do this for a living (as well anyone doing this as a hobby I suppose) who have bought from the bottom each time have done quite well I dare say. Does that make us bulls? Those of us who have sold from the top each time have also done quite well. Does that make us bears? I would suggest instead that makes us good traders.

Currently I am riding it down with shorts when gold failed to break $1,415 which confirmed the top of the fractal bear channel. If support holds when gold hits the bottom of the greater bull channel it is in I will go long. Trades based on longer time frames than that, such as the ETFs I hold, are investments, not trades, and subsequently should really only be considered when prices approach the extremes without too much concern for the fiddly bits in between.

It takes discipline to ignore your own opinion and make the trade when you get the correct signals, but I assure you it is a far more profitable way to trade.
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #25,134
  • Sep 8, 2013 6:28pm Sep 8, 2013 6:28pm
Quoting Boy Wonder
{quote} You seem to be quite emotional about this. Are you? SA=seekingalpha.com
From my viewpoint I don't see that at all.

How about keeping comments to what the charts show.
  • #25,135
  • Sep 8, 2013 7:03pm Sep 8, 2013 7:03pm
It seems you can say what you like about gold, just don't say anything bearish eh.

As to sticking to what the charts show, I have this to say: Did the charts show you that gold was going to get eviscerated when it was at $1900?
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #25,136
  • Sep 8, 2013 7:05pm Sep 8, 2013 7:05pm
Quoting Boy Wonder
It seems you can say what you like about gold, just don't say anything bearish eh. As to sticking to what the charts show, I have this to say: Did the charts show you that gold was going to get eviscerated when it was at $1900?
You obviously don't read what I post.

Including my last one about sticking to the charts.

C ya

Add another to the list.
  • #25,137
  • Sep 8, 2013 7:07pm Sep 8, 2013 7:07pm
Don't forget to shut the door on your way out.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #25,138
  • Edited 4:15am Sep 9, 2013 1:02am | Edited 4:15am
Quoting Boy Wonder
{quote} You seem to be quite emotional about this. Are you? SA=seekingalpha.com
nope - not emotional at all

i just get fed up with people stating things as though it were fact eg your "it's fooked" comment, and then when challenged coming back with "it's just an opinion......"

xtrade has a successful thread because he demands that people back up their arguments with evidence or charts. there are plenty of unmoderated threads where opinions are all that matter - and their value is accordingly marginal.
  • #25,139
  • Sep 9, 2013 3:22am Sep 9, 2013 3:22am
I am newbie in here and I read very closely to this threat but still now I am still don't know how to read golds chart.
I am taking long @ 1388.61
gold going up ?
  • #25,140
  • Sep 9, 2013 4:22am Sep 9, 2013 4:22am
Quoting alam88009
I am newbie in here and I read very closely to this threat but still now I am still don't know how to read golds chart. I am taking long @ 1388.61 gold going up ?
Welcome to the thread, but you shouldn't enter trades based on hopes, guesses, or other people's opinions. Even if you are using a paper/dummy/practice account you should really learn some basic technical analysis before you start trading, else what you're doing is essentially gambling.

If I can give you one piece of advice it's that protecting the money you already have by cutting your losses as soon as any trades you enter go the wrong way should always be your priority. Never hold onto a trade hoping that it will turn around -- you're better off exiting and re-entering at a better price. There will always be another opportunity to make money so never feel you have to make a trade or regret the money you didn't make by missing out on a big move. Once your money is gone it is gone forever and whatever you lose means you have that much less to invest in future trades.

Might I suggest that, if you haven't already, you create a practice account with $2,500 and if you can get it up to $5,000 twice in a row you are ready to trade. If you drop to $2,000 start over. The default of $100,000 or $1,000,000 most demo accounts give you is unrealistic and will lead you astray when you try to translate your strategy to a live account where a $5,000 loss which meant nothing in pretend money means you've bankrupted your account and lost all the real money it took you years to earn and save up.

Good fortune to you.
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
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