XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

What is this bullshit that you are spewing?

Please tell facts, not feelings and unjustified denigrations, since you are naming a well known old participant of this thread: what was your experience with them? How and how much did they cheat you?

Hi Mohamed ,

I use 18 ema in lower time frames ,I use sth similar in daily.Do you find it useful in daily too ? Is it the ema or sma you use ?
I checked 18 ema looks perfect on gold even on monthly and weekly.

Regards,

Okan

Hey guys (great to see you back X), I saw this when it came up and assumed it surely must have been tongue in cheek so didn't respond - I hope I was correct!!

Important Update On Gold and Silver!
by Larry Edelson
Wednesday, April 3, 2013

Larry here with a quick but very important update on the precious metals. As you may well know from my previous columns, I have been calling for a further decline in the precious metals. Yesterday, gold added to its losses since its high in August of 2011 ... and fell to close below a very important sell signal I have at $1,582.80.

Silver has also penetrated an important support area and a sell signal at $27.58.

Bottom line: Both gold and silver should now head still lower. The next key support levels, which I expect will fully be tested in the coming weeks and months, are the $1,380 level in gold, and $20.47 in silver.

Why are the metals falling when there’s so much central bank money printing going on, and so many hot spots around the world? The euro crisis, Cyprus, Iran, North Korea, and more?

The answer is simple and two-fold ...

First, as I informed my readers many times over the last 18 months, from a purely technical point of view, gold and silver need to temporarily pull back in order to “refresh” their long-term bull markets.

They climbed almost non-stop for 11 years, and I have never seen a bull market climb for 11 straight years without taking at least a two-year breather before heading higher again.

Second, the crises that I refer to above, the ones that are on everyone’s minds, are NOT bullish for the metals. In the short-term, they are setting off a flight to cash, and a flight of capital to cash, by default, no matter where you are in the world, leads to a rally in the dollar, which is also putting downside pressure on the metals.

Fortunately, if you’ve been following my forecasts, you’re OK. You refrained from purchasing more precious metals, and you also side-stepped the pullback in mining shares, which has been staggering, with the average mining share losing over 40% of its value since the highs were recorded in the sector in September 2011.

What to do now?

First, do not be surprised if you see a short-term bounce in the precious metals. They’ve been hit hard recently. Any bounce that might occur, however, should be weak and brief.

Second, if you are not in gold and silver, or in mining shares, simply sit back and enjoy the further decline that will come. An incredible buying opportunity will arrive in the not-too-distant future. One which will set you up for staggering profit opportunities when gold and silver do bottom.

If you are loaded up with precious metals or mining shares, I would consider hedging. One good way to hedge the gold and silver you own, in physical form or via ETFs, is to purchase inverse ETFs. I like the ProShares UltraShort Gold ETF (GLL) and the ProShares UltraShort Silver ETF (ZSL). For mining shares, I recommend the Direxion Daily Gold Miners Bear 3x Shares (DUST).

Make sure you stay tuned to my Monday morning columns in Money and Markets going forward.

I am keeping an especially keen eye on ALL commodity markets, and I’ll keep you fully informed.

Best wishes,
Larry



The Yin and Yang of Gold ...
by Larry Edelson
Monday, April 15, 2013

Over the past week or so, gold cracked through support at the $1,583 level, then bounced back up, and then plunged anew.

Now, gold is dangerously close to giving a MAJOR sell signal. Once it closes below the $1,527 level — you can kiss gold goodbye. It will plunge to $1,380 an ounce — and possibly lower.

Ditto for silver. Once it closes below $26.40 — kiss it goodbye too. It will fall to at least $20.47 — and probably lower.

Why do I keep harping on gold and silver in this column? Because I know there are scores and scores of investors who are getting bad advice that will result in terrible losses.

Look, gold IS the ultimate store of value. That is true. And someday, gold will head north of $5,000 an ounce.

But if you want to avoid losing money in the precious metals market and instead make the most amount of money you can, you simply must get your timing right.

Just as important, you must have an open mind when investing in gold and silver. You can't get married to your metal (or any investment for that matter) — as if investing in precious metals was some sort of religion.

For instance, you have to realize that sometimes gold is money ... and sometimes it's not.

Right now, gold is not money. Just consider what's happening in Japan. The wicked and aggressive devaluation of the Japanese yen is setting off a massive stampede OUT of gold and into cash and other assets.

If you don't believe me, then read this recent article in The Wall Street Journal.

Why are the Japanese dumping gold, especially when their currency is being devalued?

It's simple. The fall in the Japanese yen caused the price of gold in yen to spike sharply higher. So Japanese investors are cashing in their profits.

In addition, Japanese investors want to either spend their gold proceeds, or move it into other assets. They need liquidity. And holding on to gold is not a liquid situation.

It's very easy to understand. This sort of thing is also happening in Europe, where gold demand is also down.

Why? Because if you have money in a bank, Cyprus has proven that European leaders will stop at nothing to try to solve Europe's crisis, even if it means confiscating your money from your bank.

Gold's not going to do you much good in that situation. If you take your money out of the bank and buy gold, how are you going to pay for the basic necessities in life?

Moreover, how are you going to move your gold out of the country, if that's what you wish to do (which many Europeans are indeed doing)?

Moving physical gold around isn't so easy either. It takes time and money to move your gold. And even then, you won't know how safe it is, because in the back of your mind there's always that fear that your gold could be confiscated.

The bottom line: While gold is indeed the ultimate long-term store of value against depreciating currencies and failing governments, there are times when forces that are seemingly bullish for gold are actually bearish.

I call it the yin and yang of gold, and for that matter, all markets. There are always two sides to a coin, two sides to a market, two sides to every piece of fundamental news out there.

Knowing which side is prevailing, why and when — are the keys to successful investing. That requires an open mind, no biases, and lots of experience with technical and cyclical analysis.

If this sounds a bit too theoretical or complex in any way, I assure you it's not.

All you have to do is put yourself in the shoes of a Japanese investor who owns gold. The price of gold is spiking higher. Meanwhile, you know you have to get your money out of the yen because the yen's only going to be further devalued.

You're also frightened that North Korea's crackpot leader, Kim Jong-un, may soon drop a bomb on Tokyo.

So you know you need cash, lots of it. Simple decision: Take advantage of the yen's spike higher in gold, dump your gold and get liquid with cash.

Then, either pay some bills (before the yen becomes worth even less) ... or get your money out of yen and into another country with a currency that's at least losing value less quickly.

Or even better, into an investment that has a decent return, decent profit potential, and in a country and a currency in better shape than Japan's.

Demand Falling in Europe, Too

Now put yourself in the shoes of an investor in Europe. You now know that European leaders may confiscate money from your bank account. You also are pretty much convinced that the euro is destined to fail.

Therefore you need to move your cash out of the European banking system. To do that, you have to sell your gold for U.S. dollars, and move your money, most likely to either Asia or the U.S.

I think it's pretty easy to understand.

Later, in the not-too-distant future, the same fears of confiscation of wealth and further devaluation will hit the United States. And at that time you'll need to move your money yet again.

There won't be many safe-havens left at that point. So you'll probably want to go back into gold. The new bull market in gold will then begin.

So you see, none of this is all that hard to understand provided you keep an open mind, question the conventional, and think independently.

You'll be surprised how doing that can turn you into a successful investor.

I repeat my warnings of last week ...

*Do NOT look to gold and silver for safety right now. Ditto for mining shares.

*If you are loaded up with gold, silver, or mining shares and don't want to sell, for whatever reason, then at least consider hedging.

My favorite vehicles for hedging are the ProShares UltraShort Gold (GLL) and the ProShares UltraShort Silver (ZSL). For mining shares, I suggest the Direxion Daily Gold Miners Bear 3x Shares (DUST).

*Stay mostly in the dollar now. The greenback is in an intermediate-term bull market as the euro is at the beginning of its end, and the Japanese yen is going to be aggressively devalued.

Consider purchasing the PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP) for a speculative long dollar play.

*Don't be afraid to buy U.S. stocks. Though a pullback is overdue, the U.S. equity markets are very strong.

Just keep in mind that the new bull market in stocks really has nothing to do with corporate earnings or the economy. The strength in our equity markets is largely due to capital flight out of Europe and Japan, and out of European and U.S. sovereign bond markets.

Best wishes, as always ...

Larry



Urgent: Historic Gold Crash. What To Expect Next ...
by Larry Edelson
Monday April 15, 2013

I'll get right to the point ...

First, gold's historic collapse — losing as much as $233 in just the last four trading days, a whopping 14.7 percent ... and $565, or 29.44 percent since its high in 2011 — is NOT over.

Second, expect a bounce to soon occur, but don't buy into it. If you do, you will likely lose a bundle of money as gold heads even lower.

The same advice applies to silver, to copper, to platinum, to palladium, to crude oil and more. Their interim-bear markets are not over, not by a long shot. Ditto for natural resource stocks.

For now, I'll confine this update largely to gold. I want you to have the important system support levels for gold from my trading models. That way, you will have a road map.

I'll cover these technical levels first, then I'll briefly review the fundamental forces driving gold lower.

Gold's major support levels now lay at ...

— $1,380. Gold is currently below that level.
— 1298.70
— 1244.90
— 1160.90
— 1028.40
— 993.90

Each of the above levels should temporarily hold once they are hit. But the operative word is "temporarily." Based on my system models, gold will likely not bottom until it hits major long-term support at $1,028.

As for overhead resistance, there is plenty. For any bounce that soon comes into play, expect resistance to form at the $1,380 ... $1,412 ... and $1,458 levels.

As for the fundamentals driving gold (and other commodities) lower, they are the same forces I've been telling you about for many months now ...

First, central bank money-printing has lost its impact on the markets. Why? Very simply put, there's too much bad debt floating around the globe and there's simply no way central bank money-printing can offset it.

Second, austerity measures in Europe and the United States are also overpowering the inflationary impact of money-printing.

Third, and most importantly in my view, the Cyprus confiscation of uninsured depositor money has completely turned the world upside down. Money is no longer safe in a bank in Europe.

That, in turn, is causing hundreds of billions of dollars to essentially go into hiding. But not in gold, which is subject to confiscation, real or imagined.

Instead, capital is largely going into cash, which is also bullish for the U.S. dollar, since it's still the world's reserve currency.

Fourth, Japan's new aggressive policy to devalue its currency is also not bullish for gold. Japanese investors are plowing their money instead into their own stock market, and my sources tell me loads of Japanese capital is also fleeing to our stock market.

In fact, much of the selling in gold originated in Japan. It was just a week ago that gold hit a record new high in yen terms, due to the depreciating Japanese currency.

But instead of lining up to buy gold, Japanese investors queued up at gold dealers around the country dumping every ounce of gold they could get their hands on, even melting down jewelry.

Why? Japanese investors don't trust their own government, and if push comes to shove with North Korea, Japanese investors want their money liquid and mobile. That means cash, not gold.

In essence, we are seeing what I call "Money on the Run" and its momentum is picking up, in Europe and in Japan. Panicked capital is going into hiding, but in cash and equities in the U.S. and Japan, not in gold.

Later, when everyone realizes that Washington has many of the same problems that Europe and Japan has, all of the above fundamental forces will flip back to the bullish side for gold.

But that time is not here yet.

In my special Money and Markets issue of April 3, and in earlier columns, I suggested hedging any metals or mining shares you owned via purchases of the inverse ETFs, the ProShares UltraShort Gold ETF (GLL) and the Direxion Daily Gold Miners Bear 3x Shares (DUST).

I also recommended the ProShares UltraShort Silver ETF (ZSL) for a play on silver's downside.

If you acted on any of those suggestions, you're sitting pretty. Hold those positions and stay tuned for further updates.

Best wishes,
Larry



More losses coming in the gold market ...
by Larry Edelson
Monday April 22, 2013

Millions of investors have been skinned alive in the gold market. They got married to their positions and failed to realize that gold is like any other market. What goes up, must also pullback.

Even some of the savviest investors in the world got killed in gold. Billionaire investor John Paulson lost as much as $600 million in last week's gold rout and nearly $1.5 billion since gold peaked in 2011.

Another huge investor, David Einhorn also lost big. Ron Paul has lost big. So has billionaire hedge fund manager Kyle Bass. And more.

Even the central banks have been pounded by gold, losing an estimated $560 billion in last week's gold rout.

That's just the big investors. It doesn't count the tens of billions of dollars lost by average investors all over the world.

Fortunately, those following my analysis are not among them. I have been consistently bearish gold for well over a year now, and anyone following my work either avoided huge losses ...

Or even better, acted on the more specific advice I've given in my paid publications, went short via futures or inverse ETFs on gold, and cleaned up big time.

The Level of Disbelief in Gold's Correction Means More Losses Lay Ahead

When investors in any market are in denial about what's happening, it's virtually a sure fire sign that the current trend is going to continue.

Why? Because they've suspended all semblance of logic and they've become so irrational that they can't see the forest for the trees.

For instance, in gold right now you have three types of investors ...

1. Those who believe gold was "ambushed" by big investors who wanted to trash the market and inflict losses on small investors.

But if that were true, then why did all the big investors I mention above lose so much money? Surely, they would have gotten wind of the ambush and been able to avoid a big portion of the actual losses they took, wouldn't they?

Then there are ...

2. The gold investors who believe the gold market is "manipulated" by a combination of big investors, politicians, and central banks set on pushing the price of gold down to "keep a lid on inflation," or at least the perception that inflation is out of hand.

But if that were true, then again, why did so many big investors take such big losses? And why did central banks lose as much as $560 billion?

Central bankers are not the smartest traders in the world, but they're certainly not dumb and stupid.

3. And then, there are the gold investors who refuse to believe that there are deflationary forces at work, and they claim that gold has lost touch with reality, and that the current decline in gold therefore represents the buying opportunity of a lifetime.

Again, that's denial, plain and simple. It's touted by analysts and investors who refuse to believe that a market can — and must — go down, even if it's just setting the stage for the next bull leg higher.

Look, markets never go straight up year after year as if there's nothing but blue skies ahead.

The fact of the matter is that the biggest, strongest bull markets are those that correct violently, shake out all the weak and even strong long positions and buyers ...

And clear the air for new buyers to come back into the market.

So if you're a real student of the markets and a real gold bug, then this violent correction that has occurred in the gold market should have been expected, and further, should be music to your ears!

For in the end it is about the best thing that could have happened in the gold market.

It will allow the gold market to refresh itself, to reenergize, and to set the stage for a massive new leg to the upside.

Right now, you should expect a bounce in gold. But as I said in my special Money and Markets column of April 15 ...

Gold's Historic Collapse Is NOT Over

Keep your eyes on the $1,412 and $1,458 levels. One of those two levels should cap any bounce in the gold market.

On the downside, I repeat the key support levels you should be watching:

$1,298.70
$1,244.90
$1,160.90
$1,028.40
$ 993.90

Each of the above levels should temporarily hold once they are hit. But based on my system models, I repeat my warning of my April 15 special column: Gold will likely not bottom until it hits major long-term support at $1,028.

If you've acted on any of my suggestions to purchase inverse ETFs such as the ProShares UltraShort Gold (GLL) and the Direxion Daily Gold Miners Bear 3x Shares (DUST) ... or even the ProShares UltraShort Silver (ZSL) for a play on silver's downside ...

Hold those positions!

And most important of all, do not be tempted to buy any gold, or silver, or mining shares, until I give you the all-clear!

Instead, let those who are in denial about gold's correction continue to get their head handed to them.

When they finally realize that all their theories about gold market manipulation and ambushing, central bank shenanigans to depress the gold price, and more of such conspiracies ...

Are nothing but gobbledygook, then gold will finally bottom!

Best wishes,
Larry

Weekly & Daily Gold Charts

Key Support Levels:

$1,298.70
$1,244.90
$1,160.90
$1,028.40
$ 993.90

Hi XTrade,

I hope you don't mind me sharing some of the articles above (even though it is "hindsight") in hopes to share the underlying fundamentals which support Gold moving further down in the coming months.

Also, for anybody who is interested I just compiled my perspective, other FF member's thoughts, as well as articles written by a few financial research companies into a post I call the "USD Fundamental Overview For 2013"

Hi Okan,
I'm using 18, 55, 100 and 200 sma, on daily tf... I don't count so much on them to determine entry points, I just use them to determine major support and resistance... actually I didn't try ema, but I will have a look and see how it works on short tf.. thanks

borıng, so İ short 1473... stop 1492... target 1429...

I have a very similar trade to yours.

Short @ 1470
SL: 1495
TP: 1435

good levels, but trend ıs up, İ short because of borıng... be carefull...

İ dıvıded over 1474 and under 1474...

We are currently below the 61.8% retrace from recent down move and price is still right around the 20 EMA on the D1. Maybe a little more consolidation before moving lower in the coming weeks.

1465...1457...1450... must broken for real shorter...

my scalping system spit buy limit 62, stop 51.

small position. See what happens when wake up in the morning.

XAG & XAU - down this week later. Target 22.75/22.25

Hi 100PipsADay

Glad to see you again. The weekly trend is bearish and also very strong ,the price is still aroud the 20 EMA on the D1 , but the D1 MACD is bullish. Do you think we can get a long position using our Third Screen Strategy when H1 WR% is over sold or just wait untill the D1 MACD show bearish again .

Best regards.
Fishcoo

Hi FishCoo,

I wouldn't chance going long on Gold at this time. I am already short but it is up to you if you want to wait for MACD to turn bearish. I think we are at a prime area for shorts.

quıckback from 1465 to 1476... gold make people panıc and mıstake...

maybe...