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All Majors and Gold

  • #3,901
  • Apr 5, 2013 8:22am Apr 5, 2013 8:22am
If Gold does pop higher from here, these are my calculated targets:

1583.60
1593.62
1603.64
1609.83

Although the last target will probably be unreachable - I can't outrule anything on nfp day.

Going down, I think Gold will hit 1540/41 at least.
  • #3,902
  • Apr 5, 2013 8:29am Apr 5, 2013 8:29am
the up move doesnt seem like it will last... although i would like it to
  • #3,903
  • Apr 5, 2013 8:38am Apr 5, 2013 8:38am
Quoting mark_it
short at 1564 and 1570 SL wide@1605
i really don't follow your strategy

you were concerned about the "volume" before nfp at 1556 - well it was minimal and the level got taken out by the biggest 20 minute futures volume bar in nearly a month and yet you are trying to short????

care to explain

thanks
  • #3,904
  • Apr 5, 2013 8:41am Apr 5, 2013 8:41am
Quoting lexazver
the up move doesnt seem like it will last... although i would like it to
1580.57 is another target the bulls might set their sights on.

The current pattern forming is looking slightly more bullish with a burst to the upside. We'll see how it plays out.
  • #3,905
  • Apr 5, 2013 8:54am Apr 5, 2013 8:54am
Quoting cg uno
i really don't follow your strategy you were concerned about the "volume" before nfp at 1556 - well it was minimal and the level got taken out by the biggest 20 minute futures volume bar in nearly a month and yet you are trying to short???? care to explain thanks
Yes, I traded the top of the spike at what I calculated resistance to be at, because I have a bearish view on Gold, the higher up my short is the better.

For the short @1570 - after topping at 1573.88 - the price action dropped soon afterwards.

The short from 1564 was a bit early, given, the price action dropped below this level also after the spike.
  • #3,906
  • Apr 5, 2013 9:01am Apr 5, 2013 9:01am
Quoting mark_it
Yes, I traded the top of the spike at what I calculated resistance to be at, because I have a bearish view on Gold, the higher up my short is the better. For the short @1570 - after topping at 1573.88 - the price action dropped soon afterwards. The short from 1564 was a bit early, given, the price action dropped below this level also after the spike.
you can see how it is confusing - you make a point about one thing and then do something completely counter intuitive...

why if you were concerned about vol lower down did you then short on the biggest vol move in a month? was the earlier concern irrelevant?

thanks
  • #3,907
  • Apr 5, 2013 9:18am Apr 5, 2013 9:18am
Quoting cg uno
you can see how it is confusing - you make a point about one thing and then do something completely counter intuitive... why if you were concerned about vol lower down did you then short on the biggest vol move in a month? was the earlier concern irrelevant? thanks
Lets bullet point it:

1. Concern for volume lower down:

Increase in volume for me depicts a build up of bullish behaviour. Since I am more bearish on Gold and I am looking to go short, so any volume spikes and hence higher prices are a concern for me as I want to take advantage of higher prices.

2. Why did I go short?

Because at resistance prices pull back, and that is exactly what they did. I'm a bear so I'm looking for a move down to 1400 medium term.
I'm positioning myself for medium term price action, and to be fair maybe I should have mentioned that.
  • #3,908
  • Apr 5, 2013 9:20am Apr 5, 2013 9:20am
Quoting mark_it
Lets bullet point it: 1. Concern for volume lower down: Increase in volume for me depicts a build up of bullish behaviour. Since I am more bearish on Gold and I am looking to go short, so any volume spikes and hence higher prices are a concern for me as I want to take advantage of higher prices. 2. Why did I go short? Because at resistance prices pull back, and that is exactly what they did. I'm a bear so I'm looking for a move down to 1400 medium term. I'm positioning myself for medium term price action, and to be fair maybe I should have mentioned...
that's the sodding point - there was no volume lower down
  • #3,909
  • Apr 5, 2013 9:37am Apr 5, 2013 9:37am
Just to point out the insanity (in my view) in the markets, French 10 year yield is at 1.73%. Euroarea inflation I think was 1.7% in the last print, so basically you give money to France for 10 years in order to get 0% real return!and thats assuming inflation will stay at 1.7% for 10 years... For Germany and some others like Austria it is even more ridiculous. I chose France because it has 10%+ unemployment and over 90% debt to GDP and situation is deteriorating further and FAST
  • #3,910
  • Apr 5, 2013 9:49am Apr 5, 2013 9:49am
Quoting cg uno
that's the sodding point - there was no volume lower down
Look at the 15min chart, 10/10:15/10:30am GMT candles, then look at the equivalent OBV volume, it starts it's upward descent from there, this miniature up tick in volume is the start of the bulls gathering to create their spike, hence the concern at this point.

It's sometimes called a 'volume break', which some traders use to go long. It doesn't always work though.

Of course, we now know it spiked, at that time 10/10:15am, it was only a speculation that it was going to spike.

Spikes are dangerous, especially if there are firm resistance levels above, it's possible to get caught on the long side on the pull back from resistance.
  • #3,911
  • Apr 5, 2013 9:58am Apr 5, 2013 9:58am
Quoting lexazver
Just to point out the insanity (in my view) in the markets, French 10 year yield is at 1.73%. Euroarea inflation I think was 1.7% in the last print, so basically you give money to France for 10 years in order to get 0% real return!and thats assuming inflation will stay at 1.7% for 10 years... For Germany and some others like Austria it is even more ridiculous. I chose France because it has 10%+ unemployment and over 90% debt to GDP and situation is deteriorating further and FAST
That is just crazy. Also regarding the banks, there are many opinions which say the European banks are actually insolvent under the hood. I think it could all come tumbling down soon.
  • #3,912
  • Apr 5, 2013 10:08am Apr 5, 2013 10:08am
Quoting mark_it
Look at the 15min chart, 10/10:15/10:30am GMT candles, then look at the equivalent OBV volume, it starts it's upward descent from there, this miniature up tick in volume is the start of the bulls gathering to create their spike, hence the concern at this point. It's sometimes called a 'volume break', which some traders use to go long. It doesn't always work though. Of course, we now know it spiked, at that time 10/10:15am, it was only a speculation that it was going to spike. Spikes are dangerous, especially if there are firm resistance levels above,...
Sorry - there was NO volume and please don't patronise me by telling me how to trade......
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  • #3,913
  • Apr 5, 2013 10:27am Apr 5, 2013 10:27am
Quoting cg uno
Sorry - there was NO volume and please don't patronise me by telling me how to trade...... {image}
Here's the volume break - plain and clear. We're using different volume indicators for a start and in a different way.

Further info: http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.p...balance_volume

That is all I have to say on this.

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  • #3,914
  • Apr 5, 2013 10:30am Apr 5, 2013 10:30am
Quoting mark_it
Here's the volume break - plain and clear. We're using different volume indicators for a start and in a different way. Further info: [url="http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:technical_indicators:on_balance_volume"] That is all I have to say on this. {image}
fine but you can't just make comments like "There's a real fight going on in the 56 area" and not expect to be queried....

battles need participants and there were none....

unsupported assertions are dangerous - especially to the large number of newbies
  • #3,915
  • Apr 5, 2013 10:42am Apr 5, 2013 10:42am
Quoting cg uno
fine but you can't just make comments like "There's a real fight going on in the 56 area" and not expect to be queried....
That's rather presumptuous.

I think I have presented my case enough and my comments have ample support.

Since one of Gnomoneey's thread rules is no arguing. I am declining to comment further on this issue.

You have the OBV volume link - use it.
  • #3,916
  • Apr 5, 2013 10:51am Apr 5, 2013 10:51am
Quoting mark_it
That's rather presumptuous. I think I have presented my case enough and my comments have ample support. Since one of Gnomoneey's thread rules is no arguing. I am declining to comment further on this issue. You have the OBV volume link - use it.
oh ok - i'll just follow your trades without thought or question
  • #3,917
  • Apr 5, 2013 10:59am Apr 5, 2013 10:59am
Quoting cg uno
oh ok - i'll just follow your trades without thought or question
On the separate issue of following my trades. Why would you do that? You should have your own analysis and your own trade setups.

If you followed anyone's trades without questioning or understanding then that is just plain folly.

So, yeah of course question, before following the trade is better than after.
  • #3,918
  • Apr 5, 2013 11:00am Apr 5, 2013 11:00am
Quoting mark_it
On the separate issue of following my trades. Why would you do that? You should have your own analysis and your own trade setups. If you followed anyone's trades without questioning or understanding then that is just plain folly. So, yeah of course question, before following the trade is better than after.
sarcasm
  • #3,919
  • Apr 5, 2013 11:01am Apr 5, 2013 11:01am
Quoting mark_it
That is just crazy. Also regarding the banks, there are many opinions which say the European banks are actually insolvent under the hood. I think it could all come tumbling down soon.
I've heard something like that 2 days ago but mainly with Spanish banks (rumour was that they will start booking losses), although it wouldn't surprise me if they all are insolvent...

Sidenote : Don't fight guys, its a peaceful place ))
  • #3,920
  • Apr 5, 2013 11:02am Apr 5, 2013 11:02am
I'm going home, I've got some pips to show for this week's early starts and hard work.

Have a good weekend all. Hope you all trade well going forward.
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