XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

haha...I think i had a lagged filled order.

Just a heads up from my previous two post, It's like to do a small turnaround to 1692 area or maybe 1600 before it really continues to first targets that I mentioned...If you are still set in a bullish mind set, well...more power to ya. Just because it can jump 30 plus points up, does not make this a bullish move my any means!!

same here...but it back to my account ...lol

Can we speak to FX oanda live help about this thing called slippage? Its ridiculous to have slippage of about 1000 pips.

Anyone watching that bizarre gap play out?

Watching, yes, and perhaps a bit regretful that I didn't short gold when 5 minute RSI was at 80 then long at 17, but other than a EUR/JPY long I was already in, I don't trade on non-farm Fridays until after the markets stabilize (though often the market stops dead once that happens). I wouldn't be surprised if it ended the day, as it so often does, right where it started. [Update: Silver parked itself right at open to the pip and gold is slowly inching up the last $1.50.]

I was hoping silver would touch $28 for a long-term entry, but it looks like this scalping range in gold and silver is going to be defended for a while longer.

A gap? which gap? saw none on my 2 platforms.

"The United States Federal Reserve has been very vocal regarding the correlation between their monetary easing program and the unemployment rate"

perhaps we should have a chart for this ..... i wonder if anyone had done this ...?

Long followed GSR has completed its turnaround with expected volatility, now the direction short term is set, 52,5 seems to be next target. Then it can bounce back up.

http://img594.imageshack.us/img594/1...aroundfeb8.png

Silver has formed yesterday a new 4 h fork that shows there is now upside move coming at least to 30,4 with max target around 31 short term, may be 32 within March, may be up to FOMC. Volatility shall subside a bit.

http://img202.imageshack.us/img202/2...insilverma.png

Unemployment rate is meaningless number as it counts only those who has no job but is actively looking. If you take into account those who has stopped looking , there is practically no meaningful change since 2009- drop from 17,5% to 16%- all new jobs just cover the amount of people coming into workforce from total population increase.

http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/wp-c...son033011a.gif

Actually, share of employed Americans as of total potential workforce has reached long time lows.

http://www.usagold.com/pete/newsview...pationRate.jpg

Also, jobs added in Jan-Feb was only 61% of jobs added at the same period in 2012. Hows that for an improvement due to FED QE3?

so , how does this translate into for gold ....up or down ...?

Short term down with oscillations . Gold prices will start to move up when there will be increased fiscal spending - Japan, UK, EUR, USA as QE has proved inefficient both to stimulate real job growth or inflation. Real additions to USA company earnings are mostly from investing printed dollars abroad, hence rise in GDP, besides, most of it comes from financial sector due to inflated asset prices that produces nothing.

Anyway, either war spending by the USA ( which I doubt, they will rather see others fighting and selling weapons etc to them) or deflation and unemployment stagnation will lead to rapidly increased fiscal spending with increasing speed of US debt. Then PMs ( or shortly before as it will become and obvious option) PM prices will resume their way up.

When? I think the need for increased fiscal spending as the West is trapped in debt deflation is already becoming clear now, but will not be allowed by bankers running the show as that would inflate the debts away. Bankers need to get gold first, before this starts, without pushing up golds price. I think that is impossible, so they hope that West will move into austerity with the USA still extracting some rent from the whole world by flooding it with USD into higher return assets.

I think deflation will appear in the end of 2013, monthly may be earlier, but when will politicians be ready to move into more spending fiscally-> directly into productive economy not into bailing out banks I have no idea.

Japan is starting to do it, UK stands in line, so may be these examples will somehow change the game in Washington.

Until then, or direct USA involvement in war, gold will not increase much, but Japan and UK(soon) and some others targeting inflation/nominal output may also have positive impact on gold price in USD respective to their real economy share in the world, so I do not expect sharp drop either. Hence 1450-1550-1650 range should be quite OK for 2013 even if the USA continues to talk about reducing debt and imposing taxes and spending cuts on small levels, as it has done in fiscal cliff and sequester.

If the USA goes into fiscal spending to target HIGHER inflation rates as Japanese now do, then the sky is the limit.
And I guess they will be forced to, just when? Things happen slower then we expect, that I have learned during this crisis.

One thing that could move the USA into fiscal spending would be the end of wealth effect- fueling up asset prices via QE and debt- which shall come to an end as stock bubble spike and collapse. That could take place in the end of 2013 as QE at current quantities will not be enough to sustain a bubble ( a spike). . After such drop, there will be so many financial institutions and pension funds under water that QE maybe will be compromised.Or FED will decide to withdraw QE before the asset bubble which is clearly in making. That will cause depression and the USG may be left with one political option only ( though I think bankers have many more options) to allow deficits run amok like in war time.

As of now, USG is stuck in the middle, which is short term gold negative as QE has failed and government gives no signs of willing to spend more, quite the contrary. There are also myths ( ?) about austerity and self sustainability in gas/oil that keeps gold at hold.

NFP data was manipulated....they revise data on previous month to 119 (just check it out), may be they will revise this month data by next month.


anyway market have their own reaction ( after the data out ) and they like volatility...

here in the u.k., economy is booming again. house prices are higher than they have ever been in the last 3 years. and are on the general increase. economic upturn is underway. this means sooner the other big economies such the u.s. and parts of europe will follow and show signs of economic growth. this means less demand for precious metals.

meaning , gold prices could continue falling..............


for me, unless it breaks the weekly support, iam not going short. anything below weekly support could mean short for many months.


you have been warned.

Booming.

ivars , whatfx


appreciate ur valuable insights and comments !

thank you !!

iam looking for a long signal on my charts. ideally the closer to weekly support, the better. waiting for the long signal , once visble i'll be taking the long. stop below weekly support.

iam long at 1589

With this strong move up, most intraday shorts must have been covered now. With only buyers fuelling the market, I would expect some selling pressure to come in soon and then the bulls taking profits.
Looking for confirmation that bulls are pulling out and then open short position

Took the short.
Cheap SL and these big moves often reverse dramatically