All Majors and Gold

if the LTRO repayment news not positive for gold I dont know what will ))

First LTRO-2 Repayment Less Than Half of what was Expected

Played out rather nicely after all.

my view on gu

-price closed below 1.5220
-an area that's been support from 09/2009
-possible next support at 1.478x -03/2010
-then 1.41 and 1.36

on the upside 1.632x

Good Morning

This is my first time posting on the thread that my friend gnomoneey started last year.

I will present my unique point of view here in order to perhaps give others that post here my perspective on the Gold markets and the Price of SPOT GOLD.

To start we are not trading FREE MARKETS.

There are two markets in Gold. The paper markets (COMEX) and the SPOT GOLD market. Gold is the ENEMY of the Central Banks and their printing presses. The Central Banks however are now strong buyers of the physical Gold.

Here is some recent information on the COMEX market.

In gold, the Commercial net short position declined by an eye-watering 2.86 million ounces...and the new Commercial net short position has fallen all the way down to 13.21 million ounces.


The Big 4 are short 8.95 million ounces of gold...and the '5 through 8' traders are short an additional 5.50 million ounces. So the Big 8 are short 14.45 million ounces of gold, or 109.4% of the entire Commercial net short position.


In gold, the market-neutral spread trades are far fewer...only about 17% of the total open interest...or about half the amount of spreads on a percentage basis that are present in silver, so the concentrations aren't as high in gold as they are in silver.


On a net basis, the Big 4 in gold are short 24.2% of the entire Comex futures market in gold...and the '5 through 8' largest traders are short an additional 14.8% of the futures market in gold. Add the two numbers up...and the Big 8 are short 39% of the entire Comex futures market in gold...and a big drop from the prior week's COT report.


Of course, the two most important days of the engineered price declines in all four precious metals occurred on Wednesday and Thursday...and none of these numbers were in yesterday's COT Report.


But Ted and I are speculating that we'll see more big improvements in the Commercial net short positions in both silver and gold...north of 5,000 contracts in silver...and north of 10,000 contracts in gold. Even with these numbers factored in, we are not yet at the low COT numbers either from last summer, or between Christmas and New Years back in 2011.


The other thing about yesterday's COT Report that Ted mentioned was the massive short positions being placed in silver and gold...particularly gold...in the technical fund and small trader category. Ted figures that a lot of the negative price action on both Wednesday and Thursday was the result of new short positions being placed.


Here's Nick Laird's "Days of World Production to Cover Short Positions" for the week that was. Note the extreme short positions of the four largest short holders in silver...and as I pointed out last week, it's my opinion that JPMorgan Chase, the Bank of Nova Scotia...and HSBC USA...hold 95% of the short position of the Big 4...and the positions of the remaining five traders in the Big 8, either individually or collectively, are irrelevant.


CurrencyMan: The above information is just to confirm my views on the COMEX markets.


I regularly go JSMineset to read the views of Jim Sinclair who for myself is the most knowledgeable and proven in the Gold business. I have been reading his material since 1999.

http://www.jsmineset.com/

The Currency Wars and Gold Will Be The Winner

http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/break...121558683.html


I will post some other information here later on. Have a Good Trading Week.

After posting here I went to read what Jim Sinclair had to say. I just read the following post from one of his readers and it is so strong and to the point that I am taking the liberty of posting it here.

All comments are welcome. Trading is a GAME and in order to win we need to understand The Rules Of The Game.

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
Wolfgang says everything I feel that perturbs me to no end. Evil is everywhere and tolerated.
God knows this is headed for a terrible end.


Jim,
Sorry, but I’ve got to vent about the markets. I am not privy to the street smarts of the likes of Seligman or Livermore. I’m just your average Joe.
I’ve been reading all sorts of nonsense of late. I’m tired and I’m not going to take it anymore.
For example, everyone is aware of the Boeing problems, yet positive articles are being released stating good results… from “unnamed sources” or “sources not authorized to speak”. There are many more examples of such shenanigans in other stocks, as many are fully aware. You just can’t believe anything you read.


Sites such as Seeking Alpha and Motley Fool allow anyone to post articles, true or not. It presents a perfect venue for potential manipulation of stocks by those choosing to do so. Take Nokia, for example. Negative articles focus on the poor performance of the past year or two. Never taking into account the bright prospects of the future (China Mobile contract, Nokia Siemans venture developing the internet infrastructure, or their involvement with the next revolutionary industrial product… Graphene). Yet analysts always remind us in earnings seasons that what’s important is forward guidance, not past performance. You just can’t believe anything you read.


Government figures are well known to be manipulated with seasonal adjustments and such. Unemployment numbers are truly a joke, as those who fall off the roles are no longer part of the workforce. Taken to the extreme, perhaps one day we’ll see EVERYONE out of work yet ZERO unemployment. You just can’t believe anything you read.


Naked short selling, so prevalent, still not addressed by the SEC.



Massive short positions in Silver are not being addressed. Certain banks are accused of going beyond the allowable limits of short positions with nothing being done. Yet when the Hunt Bros. tried to corner the Silver market… well, you know how fast that was addressed. You just can’t believe anything you read.


TBTF banks area now bigger and more susceptible than ever with their massive derivative positions. In fact, their earnings come from using funds set aside as reserves for such risks. Pump up the earnings reports so all looks well. You just can’t believe anything you read.
With government intervention in the Bond Markets as well as in the stock market, it becomes impossible for any reasonably educated individual to make a sound judgment on his/her investments. What seems logical baffles you with the antithesis. Zero interest rates rob the retirees of their cherished income to live on. People seeking to purchase stocks on any pullback, because they see the economic distress we’re in, will never get it. Some day, when they can’t take it anymore, they’ll dive in and get scalped alive.


Anyone with any sense of history has already come to the conclusion the public has always been and will always be taken to the cleaners by the Street.


The only place where one can make a sound judgment call is in the Gold Market. Just buy and HOOOOOOOOOOOOOOLD! As long as money is being printed to keep the governments afloat, nothing but nothing in this world will alter the end result. You can’t print gold. Sure, you can go naked short in the paper markets or divert investment money from physical into the ETF’s (which in my opinion were created exactly for that purpose). They have also been accused of supplying shares, in lieu of physical which they or the COMEX couldn’t deliver. All I can say is that any new product offered to the public must be shunned. It certainly wasn’t created for you. But when the billionaires of this world are stockpiling the stuff and Central Banks are shoring up their currencies for an eventual global monetary collapse, you simply can’t lose by holding the real deal.


Remember, in 2004 the Rothschilds gave up their prestigious position as the Morning and Afternoon London Price Fixer in Gold and Silver. When asked why, on the financial network in an interview, the response was “there was no money to be made in those markets anymore”(sic). They are dead markets. It was exactly at that time that gold and silver began rearing their heads in the beginning of a massive upwards trajectory. AS the Price Fixers, the Rothschilds were forbidden to partake in holding massive amounts of these metals. They surely must have seen something UNBELIEVABLE on the horizon, for them to give up such a prestigious position. They wouldn’t do this for a small pop in price.


Hold a gold coin your hand the next time you feel like investing in something. It doesn’t lie to you. It’s solid and feels it’s worth. It’s honest as the day is long. And more importantly, it won’t make a fool of you (it hasn’t for thousands of years) nor will it prevent you from sleeping at night. Pleasant dreams all!
CIGA Wolfgang

hi CM and welcome
great post and very informative.......
when will the big banks turn and start the long position?
or are they doing this until they hold enough physical gold to totally control the market and force the government to be either be more monitarily responsible or make gold as the currency equivalent of paper money?

I just found this great article from an excellent source.

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldne...old_Chart.html

Snippet:



“The cash deficit every year is currently running at $1.5 trillion, but if you include unfunded liabilities, the accounting deficit totals $6 trillion each year. How can they ever stop QE? You look at the banking system, they can only survive by valuing their toxic assets at phony values.



Even student loans now total above $1 trillion, and the default rate currently amounts to 23%. Some colleges have a default rate as high as 60%. As youth unemployment increases, default rates will average 50% in my view. If you look at Social Security, there are over 125 million on benefits, including food stamps.



I wouldn’t be surprised to see at least 150 million people in need of government assistance or standing in front of soup kitchens in the next few years. All the while the Fed will be signaling the end of QE. So there is nothing in the US that’s pointing to any improvement or anything that would allow for QE programs to cease.



One thing that’s worried me and it continues to worry me is the divide between the rich and the poor. It’s increasing continuously in the US and in the rest of the world. The poor in the US and Europe are having trouble making ends meet, and this is a very, very dangerous trend for the world.



Interestingly enough I was at a family office conference recently and this confirmed that the rich are still very rich, and they are buying all of the conventional assets, stocks, property, private equity, wines, art, etc. But very few of them had any significant exposure to gold. There will be a massive wealth destruction because many of the assets which have been financed by credit bubbles around the world, they will plummet massively in real terms.



If we move to the eurozone things are just getting worse. The European Commission admitted that what they expected to be growth in 2013 is not going to be happening. But optimists as they always are, they now say it will happen in 2014. Well, Eric, there is absolutely no chance there will be growth in Europe in 2014.



The problems in Europe are still massive. When you look at Spain as an example, the financial system is crumbling. Bankia, which is the bank that was created by all of the mergers in 2010, and subsequently saved by the government, is about to announce its biggest loss ever. They are not even valuing their assets at real market value. There are 3 million empty houses in Spain as an example.



We also just had the second biggest bankruptcy ever announced in Spain. So with unemployment at 27% overall, and roughly 60% for the youth, Spain is in an absolute mess and is not going to improve. The government’s borrowing rate should be 50% or more, and yet they are still able to borrow at 5%. In fact, they couldn’t borrow any money without the ECB’s help.



You have a very similar situation in Italy, Greece, France, and the UK will be next. The ECB had been upbeat about the expected repayment of the LTRO, but the repayment was only half of what they expected because the reality is the banking system is still under tremendous pressure.”



Greyerz had this to say regarding gold: “The gold market will very soon begin to reflect the money printing that is guaranteed to happen in 2013. I could easily see the Fed moving from $85 billion each month to a number ten times that amount in coming years. This number could well grow to $850 billion each month from the Fed over the next few years, and that’s just on the US side.



When we discuss gold going up dramatically in a short period of time, most people think it can’t happen. We’ve talked about the next targets of $4,000 to $5,000, and people in the mainstream media would say that’s crazy. But below I am showing a chart of the 1979 to 1980 gold price action.



http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldne...%208%20%20.jpg

Yes, CurrencyMan, Fed has no choice but to continue QE infinity and to most likely increase it this year.

http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/break...121419261.html

In the movie, Field of Dreams, the tagline was, "If you build it, they will come." Similarly, on the street of dreams, the new vibe seems to be, "If you seek bad news, you will find it." How better to describe the global heartburn that has ensued following the release of the minutes from the FOMC's January meeting. The 16-page recount was filled with positive commentary and anecdotes that are anything but troubling, such as: "In general, participants indicated that, relative to the recent past, more business contacts reported an improvement in confidence and some cautious optimism about the economic outlook."

However, at a time of heightened concerned about an over-extended bull market, rising interest rates and unsettled fiscal matters in Washington, investors chose to drill down on the committee's discussion about the effectiveness of its open-ended program of bond purchases.

"Many participants also expressed some concerns about potential costs and risks arising from further asset purchases. Several participants discussed the possible complications that additional purchases could cause for the eventual withdrawal of policy accommodation, a few mentioned the prospect of inflationary risks, and some noted that further asset purchases could foster market behavior that could undermine financial stability."

While the Fed has agreed to further study the risks and rewards of QE3, many investors are simply nervous and looking for a reason to sell. Add in the fact that with one negative quarter of GDP already in the books, we are halfway home to officially plunging back into recession and some market watchers see a damned-if-you-do, damned-if-you-don't scenario for the Fed.
"I believe that you have tremendous headwinds [hitting] the economy in 2013," Michael Pento, the President of Pento Portfolio Strategies says in the attached video. They include increased taxes, rising interest rates and record gasoline prices for the winter driving season. "If you add all that up, it's easy to understand why the Walmart customer has pulled back."
If he's right and we, indeed, see growth slow further, Pento says that Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke would never just "sit on his hands and do nothing" while the economy implodes and unemployment rises. In fact, he says, should the double-dip become a reality, then he's certain Bernanke and the Fed would once again take the easy way out and "increase the amount of monthly debt purchases" from the current $85 billion to perhaps as much as $150 billion.
It would certainly be a controversial move. However, it's one Pento considers to be "the most likely course of action," given the Fed's history of taking the painless route — at least for the short-term.
That's because, despite Bernanke's assurances that he will be able to manage the biggest deleveraging in history, the Fed chief "doesn't understand that his balance sheet is unshrinkable." Pento adds, "Bernanke's devotion to inflation is deadly for the economy."
To be fair, the Bernanke doctrine of endless intervention has, so far, not stoked inflation. However, Pento says "the minute he stops purchasing [bonds], interest rates will skyrocket" and the yield on the 10-year Treasury would jump to 3.5%.

http://www.jsmineset.com/2013/02/20/...ow-about-gold/

funny thing with gold is its going down in an uptrend and down in a downtrend. New highs happen within a short time and are retraced to create a new base. Ppl think the rise is just a normal swing so they dont get in. If ppl are in its safe to short.

More gold views

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldne...ht_By_CBs.html

Gold in Asia market really increase ! lolz.

coghlan capital free webinar today at 12.00 EST

https://www1.gotomeeting.com/register/183349961

thanks and i welcome you posting the next one......

gold views for asian trading session

current price 1593
retrace possibities 1584-1588
but continued bullish move on h1
-reason for move today was poor euro zone outlook with italian potential voting results

so lets keep in mind my blue zone resistance around 160X ar

something to think about..........


Gold’s death cross is no reason to feel grim


http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1361863239

From marketwatch.com

http://www.forexfactory.com/resource...tory-quote.png

Technical price and momentum indicators are popular tools for many investors as a way to decide when to enter or exit positions. Recently a popular indicator has been making the rounds on most financial sites due to gold hitting the “death cross.” So what is a death cross? The definition of a death cross can vary depending on who you ask but generally it refers to the 50-day moving average crossing under the 200-day moving average. A common condition added to this definition is that the 200-day moving average must also be on a downward trend. Generally this is seen as a bearish sign and is supposed ... (full story)

 

Yes.. I have read this page.. What is the meaning ?
I am not very good in finance. Sad

short in min 3 months then maybe long after next cross

I see. Thank for your explanation. Gold keep on climb... Have you add in any position ?

might short once i see a bounce off my bluezone.....lets see and wait