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XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

  • #21,901
  • Dec 18, 2012 12:40am Dec 18, 2012 12:40am
hi

 

  1. Gold Advances as U.S. Budget-Deal Optimism Spurs Commodities
  2. Oil Advances a Third Day After Progress on U.S. Budget Agreement
  3. Copper Climbs for First Time in Four Days on U.S. Budget Talks

  • #21,902
  • Dec 18, 2012 12:40am Dec 18, 2012 12:40am
GOLD

Spot gold up 0.3 % to $1,702.40 ,and traded at $1,702.05 in Asian hours up 2nd day , It had fallen to $1,686.70 yesterday, (Low Dec 7) , . Gold February up 0.3 % to $1,703.10 . Silver up 0.5 % to $32.4488 and is 17 % higher this year. Platinum rose 0.5 % to $1,615 ,increasing 15 % this year. Palladium gained 0.5 % to$703.25 , adding 7.3 % this year.
  • #21,903
  • Edited 1:10pm Dec 18, 2012 11:22am | Edited 1:10pm
Havnt time to read current posts however going into 2013ooking at yearly timeframe keep eye on 1674 and 31.34 as it is bulls above.
1664-65 weeks lows
2012 yearly trend guide 34.51 -55 now moves to 31.34 as trend guide for 2013 which will be support.
Will post more thorough view at years end.
  • #21,904
  • Dec 18, 2012 12:39pm Dec 18, 2012 12:39pm
Gold either forms the afore mentioned "W" from $1672 (last time I posted a chart, I think) or drops to the afore mentioned $1665 (200 DMA, etc.) at which point it will have a big decision to go up or down. Being the year end, what's happening now is likely to limit gains for tax reasons so I suspect gold will keep falling (less so for silver and platinum) and the big push up won't occur until the new year, just like last year.

I was happy with what will probably be my last trade of the year, Feb MGC short from $1704 (restest of 38.2% Fibonacci with RSI confirmation) to $1694 (this time for Christmas presents, not grocery money). If I'd been awake to monitor the trade I wouldn't have put a stop and I'd have tripled my profit, but one should never regret a profitable trade.

As I write this, gold seems to be continuing downward. We haven't had any $50-$75 trade-range days in a while but it's always a possibility, so anyone entering a trade at this point should be very cautious. Though my short-term bias is for gold to continue falling I think it would be wiser to wait for gold to hit bottom then start buying again, but nothing is ever certain when trading.
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #21,905
  • Dec 18, 2012 1:11pm Dec 18, 2012 1:11pm
Ok guys, here's my plan. Now Monthly trend was broken, and dollar is getting stronger. Now with high probability gold will go to 1673-1677 area, and then will be big drop again. So anyway are you gold bug or else, look at that area with suspicion, dollar again rules... Buy gold at 1650 or 1600.
  • #21,906
  • Dec 18, 2012 1:21pm Dec 18, 2012 1:21pm
I'm pissed off with people taking and using my charts without permission - the last straw being some twat using them out of context.

I have erased all my charts and am taking Christmas and New Year off.

Have a good holiday one and all - I wish you health and happiness.

I will reassess whether I will post again in the New Year.

Meantime if you are interested in forks etc check out www.coghlancapital.com

beeb
  • #21,907
  • Dec 18, 2012 1:37pm Dec 18, 2012 1:37pm
Quoting beeb
Have a good holiday one and all - I wish you health and happiness.

beeb
Merry Christmas and Happy New Year!
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #21,908
  • Dec 18, 2012 4:11pm Dec 18, 2012 4:11pm
Quoting beeb
I'm pissed off with people taking and using my charts without permission - the last straw being some twat using them out of context.

I have erased all my charts and am taking Christmas and New Year off.

Have a good holiday one and all - I wish you health and happiness.

I will reassess whether I will post again in the New Year.

Meantime if you are interested in forks etc check out www.coghlancapital.com

beeb
Merry Christmas and Happy New Year to you also and as well as to everyone else in FF
Wooooohooooo or Boooooohooooo
  • #21,909
  • Dec 18, 2012 5:25pm Dec 18, 2012 5:25pm
Quoting vunamhung
Hi every one
Gold will come back 1622 at the end of Dec, what do you think about it?
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...6&d=1355597254

Mate ... ... best drawn chart ever seen ... from where did you get it ... by the way gold did drop yesterday and Ive made a fortune selling @ 1702 ...
let the chart to be your chauffeur ... -Forexmnstr-
  • #21,910
  • Dec 18, 2012 5:29pm Dec 18, 2012 5:29pm
traders ... is there any one knows why the sudden drop ... yesterday ... from 1703 down to 1660 in a matter of hours
let the chart to be your chauffeur ... -Forexmnstr-
  • #21,911
  • Dec 18, 2012 5:59pm Dec 18, 2012 5:59pm
USA told for all world that fiscal deal is going good, so many cowards like in this topic could sell gold and buy some stocks. And wait, deflation is going on, we can see even bigger drops, but keep in your head that mining cost of gold is about 1300 bucks/uonce, so we can drop to those levels. I think 1600 is quite reasonable. I was longing in that moment yesterday euro, and looked to other pairs, also gold. When prices moves they moves in all pairs and stocks and commodities. From morning I saw strange situation - all pairs were on major support ressistances, and main were on aud and cad pairs. But then you do your TA you see by support ressistances where could occure biggest move. So I saw euro, it was good and spread was low compare to gold. And golds drop was gradual - not so fast at all...
  • #21,912
  • Dec 18, 2012 6:04pm Dec 18, 2012 6:04pm
Quoting forexmnstr
traders ... is there any one knows why the sudden drop ... yesterday ... from 1703 down to 1660 in a matter of hours
The only reason I see is the upgrade of Greece from S&P. That pushed up the euro. Gold is good when debt crisis fears people, If the upgrade of Greece creates more confidence in euro , commodities like gold might be not that attractive.
By the way... I opened some long positions at 1.673 and below.
  • #21,913
  • Dec 19, 2012 3:00am Dec 19, 2012 3:00am
Quoting vaidas7777
USA told for all world that fiscal deal is going good, so many cowards like in this topic could sell gold and buy some stocks. And wait, deflation is going on, we can see even bigger drops, but keep in your head that mining cost of gold is about 1300 bucks/uonce, so we can drop to those levels. I think 1600 is quite reasonable. I was longing in that moment yesterday euro, and looked to other pairs, also gold. When prices moves they moves in all pairs and stocks and commodities. From morning I saw strange situation - all pairs were on major support...
You dont know nothing about gold ... if you think 1300 is possible in the near future
let the chart to be your chauffeur ... -Forexmnstr-
  • #21,914
  • Dec 19, 2012 3:38am Dec 19, 2012 3:38am
below 1715 gold is to sell or stay out

Quoting forexmnstr
traders ... is there any one knows why the sudden drop ... yesterday ... from 1703 down to 1660 in a matter of hours
Patience is magic
  • #21,915
  • Dec 19, 2012 5:16am Dec 19, 2012 5:16am
Quoting forexmnstr
You dont know nothing about gold ... if you think 1300 is possible in the near future
Having spent 10 years in the metals production industry, I would have to agree that market prices dropping to the same levels as mining cost is a bit far fetched. Given that gold mining and refining is not exactly the easiest thing to do not to mention the increase in demand that comes with low prices. However if there is one thing I have learnt in trading is to never say never.
Education has its reward, ignorance has its price.
  • #21,916
  • Dec 19, 2012 5:28am Dec 19, 2012 5:28am
Quoting forexmnstr
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...6&d=1355597254

Mate ... ... best drawn chart ever seen ... from where did you get it ... by the way gold did drop yesterday and Ive made a fortune selling @ 1702 ...
I used Motive wave software and use gartley scan function to draw it. The pattern is very rare to see but when it appear on the software then percent to complete the pattern is very high.
There is a another pattern on AUD/USD that I posted on this topic, you can see and make a short

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...29#post6299929

P/s sorry for my bad english, I hope you can understand
  • #21,917
  • Dec 19, 2012 6:17am Dec 19, 2012 6:17am
Quoting forexmnstr
traders ... is there any one knows why the sudden drop ... yesterday ... from 1703 down to 1660 in a matter of hours
Believe-it-or-not, i heard the bloomberg channel i was watching last night that it had something to do with SoyBeans?
WTF??
I'm also curious to try and understand how and why, anyone know better or some usefull info about this sudden drop on the metals?

Sorry, no link and just heard it on TV.
cuz
  • #21,918
  • Dec 19, 2012 6:18am Dec 19, 2012 6:18am
Quoting x.k
whether gold will close below 1700 for the area later this year?
Don't know for positive but I do know we have to rotate back up from 1665 area and climb back above 1674 if we're going to go north.
  • #21,919
  • Dec 19, 2012 6:20am Dec 19, 2012 6:20am
Quoting vunamhung
I used Motive wave software and use gartley scan function to draw it. The pattern is very rare to see but when it appear on the software then percent to complete the pattern is very high.
There is a another pattern on AUD/USD that I posted on this topic, you can see and make a short

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...29#post6299929

P/s sorry for my bad english, I hope you can understand
Very usefull thank you ... but why using 4hour chart ... why not daily?
let the chart to be your chauffeur ... -Forexmnstr-
  • #21,920
  • Dec 19, 2012 7:23am Dec 19, 2012 7:23am
Quoting forexmnstr
Very usefull thank you ... but why using 4hour chart ... why not daily?
It's simple because pattern don't appear on h1 and daily. I usually can 4 times a day in all time frames (h1, h4, daily) to find the patterns on all major pairs and gold and currently only gold and aud/usd have a pattern and I posted them on forum.
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