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XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

  • #21,861
  • Dec 12, 2012 8:58pm Dec 12, 2012 8:58pm
Quoting ljin
hello guys. i am still new to gold trading. hope u guys will help me become a good gold trader . i noticed that you guys waiting for fomc news. if i may know which fomc that we need to focus on? and what to expect?
personally i would think that the price still on correction and will go down for a bit first before it going up. that is why i am still waiting for open timing. am i doing right?

and i also planning on trading for long term. that can be up for few weeks to few months . anything i should focus on? (currently using h4 chart for open...
My best advice to you for trading gold (or anything for that matter) is basically what you wrote: Be patient and wait for a pullback.

Personally I am waiting for daily RSI to bottom before going long-term long on gold which I also believe will coincide with gold revisiting the weekly support line, but, of course, you should use your own judgment.
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #21,862
  • Dec 12, 2012 9:21pm Dec 12, 2012 9:21pm
Quoting KADC
My best advice to you for trading gold (or anything for that matter) is basically what you wrote: Be patient and wait for a pullback.

Personally I am waiting for daily RSI to bottom before going long-term long on gold which I also believe will coincide with gold revisiting the weekly support line, but, of course, you should use your own judgment.
Am I correct that you mean roughly the 1672 area?
  • #21,863
  • Dec 12, 2012 10:58pm Dec 12, 2012 10:58pm
Quoting KADC
The easing announced by the FOMC was exactly what was expected and had already been priced into the market; though it's not unreasonable to add that the price of gold is currently being suppressed by central banks which is why risk-on currencies soared leading up to the announcement while gold went nowhere.

Similar to the gold/silver ratio, central banks have a target for US$:gold and won't let gold soar until it's to their optimal advantage. I personally believe that this will be the next time daily RSI bottoms, just as took place last year....
Thanks... What are your views on Silver..? Is it also being suppressed..? What levels do you see in the near short term.. (Daily charts)
  • #21,864
  • Dec 13, 2012 1:24am Dec 13, 2012 1:24am
hi

OIL
Oil prices rose sharply on Wednesday, with Brent crude pushing above $110 a barrel, boosted by Fed's plans for more stimulus and a Texas refinery fire that lifted refined products futures. Brent January crude rose $2.27 to $110.28 a barrel by 1 p.m. EST (18 00 GMT), having swung from $108.14 to $110.50. The Brent January contract expires on Friday and with three weeks of trading left in 2012, front-month Brent prices need to finish above $107.38 to post a gain for 2012.
  • #21,865
  • Dec 13, 2012 1:25am Dec 13, 2012 1:25am
GOLD

Spot gold fell as much as 1 % to $1,694.35 the lowest price since Dec. 7, and traded at $1,700.90 in Asian hours , gold rose $1,723.40 yesterday, highest since Nov. 30 , Gold fell to a one-week low as a rally to the highest level this month prompted some investors to take profit . Gold February lost 0.9 % to $1,701.80. Silver fell 1.5 % to $32.9697 yesterday, highest since Nov. 23. Platinum slid 0.8 % to $1,622, retreating for the first time in 6D. Palladium fell 0.7 % to $685
  • #21,866
  • Dec 13, 2012 2:46am Dec 13, 2012 2:46am
Quoting KADC
The easing announced by the FOMC was exactly what was expected and had already been priced into the market; though it's not unreasonable to add that the price of gold is currently being suppressed by central banks which is why risk-on currencies soared leading up to the announcement while gold went nowhere.

Similar to the gold/silver ratio, central banks have a target for US$:gold and won't let gold soar until it's to their optimal advantage. I personally believe that this will be the next time daily RSI bottoms, just as took place last year....
If we accept that pm's are "managed" markets then it is easy to say that perceptions are being managed too.... End of quarter/year comes into play.

However nothing has changed in the landscape - there is a tremendous amount of new money being created - who would have thought we could be
blasé about a trillion dollars......

ergo the physical market will squeeze the "managers"

beeb
  • #21,867
  • Dec 13, 2012 3:53am Dec 13, 2012 3:53am
Agree but problem whit RSI is how many days do you set it? Since you have to wait for it to turn back up from the -30 levels, the 14 days default settings can at times be a bit long.

Quoting KADC
My best advice to you for trading gold (or anything for that matter) is basically what you wrote: Be patient and wait for a pullback.

Personally I am waiting for daily RSI to bottom before going long-term long on gold which I also believe will coincide with gold revisiting the weekly support line, but, of course, you should use your own judgment.
Patience is magic
  • #21,868
  • Dec 13, 2012 4:40am Dec 13, 2012 4:40am
Quoting beeb
If we accept that pm's are "managed" markets then it is easy to say that perceptions are being managed too.... End of quarter/year comes into play.

However nothing has changed in the landscape - there is a tremendous amount of new money being created - who would have thought we could be
blasé about a trillion dollars......

ergo the physical market will squeeze the "managers"

beeb
Crooks. Nothing the fed decides can be priced into the market. If they knew how much stimulus would be created, and actually priced this into the market, then they would still be crooks because they would possess insider information. No one knows anything about how much new money the fed is creating (prior to the day of its decisions) and no one can tell me anything is accurately priced into the gold market. How often have market participants expected stimulus and gotten nothing. This knocks down the price of gold. But when new stimulus is announced, somehow we still see the price of gold knocked down. Nothing is actually priced into this market. People who say otherwise are typically liars or thieves IMHO. With respect, if anyone wants to explain the mechanics of how this stimulus was priced into the market, please go ahead. I think this term is crap and has no bearing on how markets function. Maybe not as ridiculous as the term "the invisible hand", it still is a load of BS for people who either don't really understand market movements, or for people who have a stake in being dishonest.
  • #21,869
  • Dec 13, 2012 6:10am Dec 13, 2012 6:10am
Worth a read:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-12-12/gold-its-time

beeb
  • #21,870
  • Dec 13, 2012 2:50pm Dec 13, 2012 2:50pm
GC Daily - simple wedge:

http://www.screencast.com/t/RzqFnekXJ

beeb
  • #21,871
  • Edited 4:52pm Dec 13, 2012 3:48pm | Edited 4:52pm
I hope somebody made use of the GC 240 previously posted (last in #21980) and the pip perfect bounce.

http://www.screencast.com/t/IKCIDdwe8eR

Entry at the line - stops now moved above b/e

beeb
  • #21,872
  • Dec 13, 2012 4:42pm Dec 13, 2012 4:42pm
Some interesting charts here:

http://www.safehaven.com/article/280...hould-you-wait

beeb
  • #21,873
  • Dec 15, 2012 2:28am Dec 15, 2012 2:28am
Quoting beeb
Some interesting charts here:

http://www.safehaven.com/article/280...hould-you-wait

beeb

thanks, beeb!

a good read.


here's a link to anyone interested to care silver.

http://www.bishopmuseum.org/research...nsv-silver.pdf

have a gd wkend ~

fxbreeze
  • #21,874
  • Dec 15, 2012 12:48pm Dec 15, 2012 12:48pm
Hi every one
Gold will come back 1622 at the end of Dec, what do you think about it?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: XAUUSD - Scan Deep Crab - 4 hour - Dec-15 2141 PM (4 hour).png Size: 51 KB
  • #21,875
  • Edited 1:37pm Dec 15, 2012 1:18pm | Edited 1:37pm
Just recent listened interview with Robert Prechter Junior ( Elliotwave) on goldseek radio, seems he has good point. Now we are in recession, and bottom could be in 2016. People will need cash ir deflation, not gold to pay taxes, which are raising everyday ( stagflation), bussineses in europe has to lower profit margins, not to make prices higher. So stocks , commodities, gold, oil, priced in dolars will go down. Only cash will rule. Quite possible scenario, elections are over, people believe that situation is normal, but why Bernanke and EU prints? Cost of mining gold now should be 1300 bucks/ounce, so price 1500 - 1300 could be reached. Also situation in Iran will go worse if gold will go down and oil too. Perfect conditions to price go down, btw demand is also shrinked, nor seasonality now is in gold favour. MOney now sits in EU stocks, bonds, BRic countries, especcialy china. When I look at my TA, I see monthly trend now is under question for XAU/USD. Possible strategy for real gold to buy is to wait through deflation and buy. For paper situation will evolve maybe after january. And interesting observation, after few years a lot of commercials and new dealers with gold emerged in half a year. Last time they pinched me a deal to buy silver at 36 dollars.
  • #21,876
  • Dec 15, 2012 1:37pm Dec 15, 2012 1:37pm
Quoting vaidas7777
Just recent listened interview with Robert Prechter Junior

iirc Prechter has been calling for a top in gold for about the last thousand dollars.....



beeb

EDIT - I'm sorry I really can't understand the rest of your comment
  • #21,877
  • Dec 15, 2012 1:39pm Dec 15, 2012 1:39pm
Yes, but then politicians are printing results are unexpected. And fear was enormous.
  • #21,878
  • Dec 15, 2012 1:41pm Dec 15, 2012 1:41pm
Quoting vunamhung
Hi every one
Gold will come back 1622 at the end of Dec, what do you think about it?
"will" is quite strong language but that may be because English is not your native tongue....

imho that pattern still needs validation.

beeb
  • #21,879
  • Dec 15, 2012 1:42pm Dec 15, 2012 1:42pm
Quoting vaidas7777
Yes, but then politicians are printing results are unexpected. And fear was enormous.
And it's better now?

beeb
  • #21,880
  • Dec 15, 2012 1:50pm Dec 15, 2012 1:50pm
Now moneyprinting has no visible effect. US creates only base money ~ 7 percent of total money amount. And deflation goes in M2, M3. And different asset classes don't go all together in one way like before 2007. Money don't move. Then they will move, even Fed could't keep hyperinflation, so much is printed. Gold will go to 20 000 dollars ( that just for US paper) or to 200 000 dollars for all worlds paper money. The trick is to go through deflation faze and keep the gold.
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