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XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

  • #21,361
  • Oct 19, 2012 11:17am Oct 19, 2012 11:17am
Quoting XTrade
Welcome!- been here since 2009



XT-
Thanks!
  • #21,362
  • Oct 19, 2012 11:20am Oct 19, 2012 11:20am
1732 support sure gave way too!

This is perfect for the handle creation...

In any case looks to be cooling off and LDN is closed now,

But it is freaky Friday and she could be subject to another dip which might spell 1710 area +/- a few bucks where there is potential support.

I don't see 1700 going and being maintained.

I
Quoting Kadc
It just gave way. (Of course I realize everyone in this forum is well aware of this, but I just wanted to see it in print.)
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #21,363
  • Oct 19, 2012 11:23am Oct 19, 2012 11:23am
What about Silver..? Next week what should be expected.. Having a few long positions open so getting a lil nervous.. Its been a free fall d entire week...

Quoting XTrade
1732 support sure gave way too!

This is perfect for the handle creation...

In any case looks to be cooling off and LDN is closed now,

But it is freaky Friday and she could be subject to another dip which might spell 1710 area +/- a few bucks where there is potential support.

I don't see 1700 going and being maintained.

I
  • #21,364
  • Oct 19, 2012 11:33am Oct 19, 2012 11:33am
Silver is at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of it's full move from the June lows. If it stays here then gold is done falling as well. If not then the next stop for silver is the 200 DMA at roughly $31, and since gold seems to be falling in precise Fibonacci increments (to the dime), the next stop is $1691.70 for Dec GC.
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #21,365
  • Oct 19, 2012 1:13pm Oct 19, 2012 1:13pm
Quoting XTrade
response posted

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...72#post6116072

I'll save you the trouble of visiting the thread.

"Fontu be aware of the huge cup that has formed on the weekly before this little correction. Now we may be in the handle period which I would create a slight downchannel possibly to the 1700 are + or - 25 usd for spikes.

The pattern would suggest a breakout to come north after the handle completes which would in turn and time obliterate 1900.

BTW: there are no supporting fundamentals to support any...
Thanks , your kindness . reply posted also.hope doing well X trade .
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...47#post6116947

fontu
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #21,366
  • Oct 19, 2012 1:13pm Oct 19, 2012 1:13pm
G'day all - loving the dip....

Been out buying some one ounce Britannias - which are not only v good looking coins but also free of capital gains tax to us Brits. Not that I've ever sold one lol.....

Will try and put some charts together over the weekend...

beeb

EDIT - I might have to enlist this fontu geezer to help me feed and water the Unicorn that I believe (with no evidence or reasoning) that I keep in my garage. Though he might have to switch off his random word generator first........
Attached Image
  • #21,367
  • Oct 19, 2012 1:29pm Oct 19, 2012 1:29pm
Quoting beeb
G'day all - loving the dip....

Been out buying some one ounce Britannias - which are not only v good looking coins but also free of capital gains tax to us Brits. Not that I've ever sold one lol.....
Not silver? I think silver has the greater upside, and even were that not the case, the gold/silver ratio favours silver at the moment.
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #21,368
  • Oct 19, 2012 1:31pm Oct 19, 2012 1:31pm
Quoting Kadc
Silver is at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of it's full move from the June lows. If it stays here then gold is done falling as well. If not then the next stop for silver is the 200 DMA at roughly $31, and since gold seems to be falling in precise Fibonacci increments (to the dime), the next stop is $1691.70 for Dec GC.
I see what you are seeing when I draw the Fibs from June lows to October highs, but they really don't seem like important levels. Fibs for me can only be used when analyzing the previous candle whether that be daily, weekly, or monthly. For instance I've been talking about gold going through last months 50% retracement and how that was a bearish sign. However last months Fibs won't be valid when next months candle opens. This is how you can follow the markets no matter what happens instead of trying to predict its movements. What do you think next weeks candle will look like?

All due respect to XTrade, but he keeps on predicting that a cup and handle is in the process of forming. He ultimately could be correct and gold head upwards. However in the meantime he has missed an $80 move to the downside which is showing no signs of slowing yet. What happens if his cup and handle theory is wrong? Should he be wrong he will be poorly/not at all positioned to reap the profits of a new downtrend.
Twitter: @zusch_ -- Preselecting trending pairs, stocks on a weekly basis.
  • #21,369
  • Oct 19, 2012 1:32pm Oct 19, 2012 1:32pm
This article is a little convoluted, but the gist of it is that the author believes this correction is only halfway over which would put gold at its 200 DMA but would put silver well below it.

http://www.minyanville.com/sectors/p...5172?page=full
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #21,370
  • Oct 19, 2012 2:03pm Oct 19, 2012 2:03pm
Quoting KADC
This article is a little convoluted, but the gist of it is that the author believes this correction is only halfway over which would put gold at its 200 DMA but would put silver well below it.

http://www.minyanville.com/sectors/p...5172?page=full
With respect -IMHO Radomski has a very bad record in making correct predictions...

beeb

EDIT - gold v silver is down to volume/weight considerations...
  • #21,371
  • Edited 2:48pm Oct 19, 2012 2:04pm | Edited 2:48pm
Quoting zusch
I see what you are seeing when I draw the Fibs from June lows to October highs, but they really don't seem like important levels. Fibs for me can only be used when analyzing the previous candle whether that be daily, weekly, or monthly. For instance I've been talking about gold going through last months 50% retracement and how that was a bearish sign. However last months Fibs won't be valid when next months candle opens. This is how you can follow the markets no matter what happens instead of trying to predict its movements. What do...
You seem to be using Fibonacci and candles contrary to how they are normally used.

Fibonacci retracements and extensions, when showing congruence with significant areas of support and resistance, regularly indicate accurate target entry and exit points using candles, RSI, DMA, Eliot Waves, comparative analysis, fundamental pressures, etc. to indicate market direction.

The candle next week could be $100 tall Marubozu or it could be a long-legged doji with shadows extending $50 in each direction, but knowing that in advance won't help you choose your entry and exit targets for the $100 price movement they represent.
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #21,372
  • Oct 19, 2012 2:06pm Oct 19, 2012 2:06pm
possible smaller moves , next week start.
fontu
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gold.gif Size: 13 KB
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #21,373
  • Oct 19, 2012 2:29pm Oct 19, 2012 2:29pm
Quoting beeb
With respect -IMHO Radomski has a very bad record in making correct predictions...

beeb

EDIT - gold v silver is down to volume/weight considerations...
Every unique analysis provides the possibility of revealing something never before considered.

...

I know how much space roughly $65,000 in silver coins, wafers, and bars takes up, so you must have quite a fortune hidden under your mattress if you only have room for gold.

Personally, I'm happy paying the storage fee for the peace of mind of not having anything of value in my home. (literally -- I reinvest everything that isn't needed to pay the bills or buy food, so if a thief really wants to steal my 20-year-old 100kg TV for the $20 at most it could be pawned for I'd have to applaud the effort)
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #21,374
  • Oct 19, 2012 3:01pm Oct 19, 2012 3:01pm
Quoting KADC
You seem to be using Fibonacci and candles contrary to how they are normally used.

Fibonacci retracements and extensions, when showing congruence with significant areas of support and resistance, regularly indicate accurate target entry and exit points using candles, RSI, DMA, Eliot Waves, comparative analysis, fundamental pressures, etc. to indicate market direction.

The candle next week could be $100 tall Marubozu or it could be a long-legged doji with shadows extending $50 in each direction, but knowing that won't help you choose your entry...
I use candles and Fibonaccis in a way that requires no subjectivity. I don't know what is normal, but the beauty of technical analysis is always in its simplicity.

More retrace = less power.
Less retrace = more power.

When I see an attractive monthly/weekly/daily candle I put a Fib on it and watch price action around the 38.2% and 50% retracements in the lower timeframes. I watch 38.2% and 50% b/c if price goes past there then that means there is too much selling pressure. But what if price never retraces to my Fibs? No problem I'll just look for an entry at the previous candles highs. Why is that ok? Because less retrace = more power so price should go further than previous candles highs.

Exit targets are impossible to pinpoint the moment you enter a trade. Traders who pinpoint exits typically get out much too early or are paralyzed when their profit target is never reached and watch their profits disappear.

One important thing about taking profits is that you must allow time for your position to grow before taking profits is even worth it.
Twitter: @zusch_ -- Preselecting trending pairs, stocks on a weekly basis.
  • #21,375
  • Oct 19, 2012 3:16pm Oct 19, 2012 3:16pm
nice explanation buddy
  • #21,376
  • Oct 19, 2012 3:19pm Oct 19, 2012 3:19pm
Here's a fellow that thinks the $1 bounce (his chart must be wonky - that was more than $1 on every time frame) proves it hit bottom. I'm not sure I can get behind that line of reasoning, particularly when the "bounce" flatlines for four hours rather than inching upwards, but it certainly stopped exactly (or at least very close to) where we all expected it would.

From my way of thinking, if the market was genuinely satisfied that the correction was over I would expect massive buying pressure pushing it back up. The complete lack of interest in scooping up gold at this level leads me to believe it will continue downward.

http://www.minyanville.com/trading-a.../2012/id/45148

I also think Google may have further to fall for this same reason, which would be nice because I never picked any up for my mother's portfolio back in June when I could have bought it $120 lower than the $100 it just fell.
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #21,377
  • Oct 19, 2012 3:39pm Oct 19, 2012 3:39pm
Quoting zusch
One important thing about taking profits is that you must allow time for your position to grow before taking profits is even worth it.
I try to adhere to the motto: Bulls get rich and bears get rich but pigs get slaughtered.

When price action meets meets my target I take profit on the bounce and get back in when the appropriate indicator(s) confirms the direction. In the case of a continuation, more often than not I can re-enter my position at a better price point without risking the loss of profit I'd suffer if the bounce turned out to be a reversal.

Prior to my current exit strategy I was giving up far too much profit hoping for a continuation or at least a double tap if I "just held on long enough", not to mention needlessly tying up margin that could be put to better use.
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #21,378
  • Oct 19, 2012 3:48pm Oct 19, 2012 3:48pm
Quoting KADC
I try to adhere to the motto: Bulls get rich and bears get rich but pigs get slaughtered.

When price action meets meets my target I take profit on the bounce and get back in when the appropriate indicator(s) confirms the direction. In the case of a continuation, more often than not I can re-enter my position at a better price point without risking the loss of profit I'd suffer if the bounce turned out to be a reversal.

Prior to my current exit strategy I was giving up far too much profit hoping for a continuation or at least a double tap if...
I don't know how you are able to be smarter than the market, but I guess continue to do what you're doing.

I know I had described my Fib method before and it turned out that I was explaining it to you.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...39#post6021839
Twitter: @zusch_ -- Preselecting trending pairs, stocks on a weekly basis.
  • #21,379
  • Oct 19, 2012 5:33pm Oct 19, 2012 5:33pm
Quoting zusch
I don't know how you are able to be smarter than the market, but I guess continue to do what you're doing.
I'm simply following the market using fairly standard trading practices. Doggedly holding onto positions because you think you "know" that a trade will continue if you just wait long enough is a recipe for disaster in my opinion.

We seemed to agree on this point in the post you linked to where you stated that you exit as soon as price action stops behaving as predicted, but perhaps I misunderstood if you are now saying you disagree with that.

Quoting zusch
I know I had described my Fib method before and it turned out that I was explaining it to you.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...39#post6021839
Obviously in your strategy you believe Fibonacci expire based on fixed units of time, but in the traditional Fibonacci analysis I use targets remain valid until the next movement is completed regardless of how much time the move may take. In the case of congruent targets, they remain valid indefinitely as confirmation indicators of key support and resistance levels.

Your strategy is certainly unique in breaking down market action into units of time rather than encompassing entire moves which is the very basis of Fibonacci analysis, but it doesn't seem compatible with my more standard method of trading.
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #21,380
  • Edited 5:58pm Oct 19, 2012 5:57pm | Edited 5:58pm
Quoting zusch
Exit targets are impossible to pinpoint the moment you enter a trade.
Many old-school traders like myself would suggest that you shouldn't enter a position at all unless you first have a target in mind, otherwise you couldn't have analysed the risk:reward ratio which is essential for choosing which trades are worthwhile and which are not.

Quoting zusch
Traders who pinpoint exits typically get out much too early or are paralyzed when their profit target is never reached and watch their profits disappear.
At first I thought this was a bizarre suggestion, but perhaps very inexperienced paper traders might suffer from these problems. Although anyone can make a mistake from time to time, I don't believe anyone using real money would have either problem on a regular basis, at least not for long.

Quoting zusch
One important thing about taking profits is that you must allow time for your position to grow before taking profits is even worth it.
Provided, of course, that market direction hasn't changed or there isn't a more profitable position where your capital would be better utilized.

I believe many Forex traders make the mistake of holding onto slow trades for minor profits even after they have identified trades with better yields. Sometimes I do this for the sake of portfolio diversity with stocks and futures, but it's not sensible when it comes to Forex positions.
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
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