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XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

  • #21,181
  • Oct 11, 2012 11:22am Oct 11, 2012 11:22am
Here is another view more condensed that may be more "familiar"

still not sure what that spike is...

Quoting beeb
Thanks XTrade - but that whole chart just looks "wrong" to me.......

beeb
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XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #21,182
  • Oct 11, 2012 11:26am Oct 11, 2012 11:26am
Yeah I'm not sure what the hell is going on with netdania's volume.

I don't know how they calculate it.

something does seem "OFF"
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #21,183
  • Oct 11, 2012 11:41am Oct 11, 2012 11:41am
Quoting beeb
Please could you post that as for some reason I can only get spot volume on 240min and lower and it isn't apparent from that .....
I don't either through my broker, so I was using the live charts on GoldPrice.org. (http://goldprice.org/live-gold-price.html)

I'll post a screeshot in just a moment.
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #21,184
  • Edited 12:05pm Oct 11, 2012 12:04pm | Edited 12:05pm
I see XTrade already did, but here's a close-up of what I'm talking about minus today's spike which doesn't appear in the Dec futures so I'm not sure where that's coming from.

Average volume before gold broke above $1620 was around 45k, whereas average volume now is around a third of that at roughly 15k which strikes me as being quite significant.

...

p.s. How do you guys upload images directly? I had to add my image as an attachment. (though it appears in-line now after I've posted it, just not in the preview so perhaps it doesn't matter)
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You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #21,185
  • Oct 11, 2012 12:10pm Oct 11, 2012 12:10pm
Quoting XTrade
Thanks Brother!

Here is the daily, as we can see most of the move up from 1600 was on low vol.

There seems to be a spike here, not sure if that is an error or what, the bar has turned as well....

Let's wait and see!

Also I'm not that familiar with comparing the volume below with others. someone might want to post a large broker's volume like fxcm or oanda on the daily and let's see how the two correlate...
Notice back on the last major up move volume is very low just like this up move. hmmmm very interesting.
  • #21,186
  • Oct 11, 2012 12:22pm Oct 11, 2012 12:22pm
Quoting Kadc
I see XTrade already did, but here's a close-up of what I'm talking about minus today's spike which doesn't appear in the Dec futures so I'm not sure where that's coming from.

Average volume before gold broke above $1620 was around 45k, whereas average volume now is around a third of that at roughly 15k which strikes me as being quite significant.
Kadc - that just looks "wrong" too in the same way that XTrade's chart does.....

beeb

EDIT - compare it to GC Daily - nothing comparable - I think you have bum data somewhere.....There is a very small dip in August which is to be expected but nothing remotely like what you are showing....
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  • #21,187
  • Oct 11, 2012 12:22pm Oct 11, 2012 12:22pm
That spike is turning this week into a bullish hammer although it is red ATM.

Here are my thoughts on volume:

High:1 - Price moves in range due to both sides competing for a push
Higher: One side has given up or the supply/demand has subsided and the market moves in the direction of the dominant side - as seen when hit 1900+

Low: Not many market participants - however those that are in may be very big and able to game or push the market around easily.

Lower: Holiday season or off seasons, like the summer.

medium: a push

Remember anything goes.

I once did a study of several years of summers in this thread and there was no conclusive result to say that the price would drop. We do know that it is a usual slow time for metals and fx, stox, etc. due to vacations etc.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #21,188
  • Oct 11, 2012 12:29pm Oct 11, 2012 12:29pm
Yes but beeb the GC chart is futures, spot volume is very hard to calculate as you know.

If we go by broker (retail) we are biased only to what their customers are doing.

Third party should be more accurate one might think.

BTW: the PA looks almost identical to me....

Quoting beeb
Kadc - that just looks "wrong" too in the same way that XTrade's chart does.....

beeb

EDIT - compare it to GC Daily - nothing comparable - I think you have bum data somewhere.....
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #21,189
  • Oct 11, 2012 12:33pm Oct 11, 2012 12:33pm
Quoting beeb
Kadc - that just looks "wrong" too in the same way that XTrade's chart does.....

beeb

EDIT - compare it to GC Daily - nothing comparable - I think you have bum data somewhere.....There is a very small dip in August which is to be expected but nothing remotely like what you are showing....
Unless there's conglomerate GC data that combines all active contracts (which would be nice if such a thing exists), you can't get historical volume data from futures contracts because most active trades follow the most actively traded contract.
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #21,190
  • Edited 1:02pm Oct 11, 2012 12:34pm | Edited 1:02pm
Quoting XTrade
Yes but beeb the GC chart is futures, spot volume is very hard to calculate as you know.

Shouldn't make that much difference - cash cannot just drop in volume like that and stay that low for that period of time...It would definitely be picked up by the futures - that's how it works.. It looks to me like they've recalibrated their scale but it's only worked for part of the data...
Besides I assume that Stockcharts use an aggregate feed and are likely to have a smoother delivery than individual brokers....


beeb
  • #21,191
  • Oct 11, 2012 1:09pm Oct 11, 2012 1:09pm
As surmised in post # 21216

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldne...26_Silver.html

beeb
  • #21,192
  • Oct 11, 2012 1:51pm Oct 11, 2012 1:51pm
Quoting beeb
OK - well I feel is that it is a relatively unimportant in the scheme of things though obviously a major surprise would have an effect. Something like the monthly NFP or when BB or Draghi speak tends to be far more relevant...

beeb

EDIT - What is your impression having done the research?

In the overall scheme not much. Not much movement that I can tell and the big thing is I don't really know if it is related to other aspects of news when there is movement or actually the bonds data.
  • #21,193
  • Oct 11, 2012 1:52pm Oct 11, 2012 1:52pm
Quoting XTrade
Of course gold can be day traded! 75% of the reason it moves up and down all day is due to day trading.

I wouldn't day trade a pair like USD/MXN

You can start reading here.
As far as trading gold, go to the bookstore and buy a book if you like.

The best experience is following price action, trend and what news/economics affect the major shifts and moves in the metal.

Google gold.

Welcome. Good luck.
XT-
Thanks!
  • #21,194
  • Oct 12, 2012 2:58pm Oct 12, 2012 2:58pm
So gold lost 30 bucks or so off it's high. Not a bad short, yet great for forming a slight downward channel on the weekly in order to fulfill the handle part of the cup.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #21,195
  • Oct 12, 2012 3:09pm Oct 12, 2012 3:09pm
For longer term traders, understand this is usually a rollercoaster ride filled with ups, downs, good days , bad days, maybe some emotion, maybe some fear or worry, but the track record speaks for itself.

Be strong.

XT
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #21,196
  • Oct 12, 2012 6:59pm Oct 12, 2012 6:59pm
This first leg of the correction worked out fine for me. I exited my gold short at $1754 for a very nice profit, plus some relatively profitable shorts in EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUS/USD, AUS/NZD (and a few other pairs along the way) despite my foolish use of tight stops which cost me three times what they saved me.

I've learned to not use close stops for gold, but for some reason I can't kick the habit of using them for my Forex positions which is seriously eating into my profits.

I added NUGT, UGLD, and USLV when I exited gold for my mother's portfolio and entered more orders for her at positions that equate roughly to gold hitting $1720 and $1700. Then I'll add them again on the way back up. (I closed everything down else I'd have given the numbers in case anyone cares about these triple ETFs.)

Hopefully there'll be a nice bounce when futures reopen so I can re-enter my shorts from a few dollars higher up. I know some of you don't believe we're going to see a proper correction, but bullish as I am about gold and silver in the long term, I'll be far more bullish if we have a nice $100ish pull-back to $1700 or lower. Once all the pundits start decrying a return to sub-$1500 gold is about when it will be time to go long again.
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #21,197
  • Oct 12, 2012 10:02pm Oct 12, 2012 10:02pm
Spelling but we get it.

Aussie was a short, but now I am definitely looking at a potential long for several hundred pips.

I'll whip up a chart tomorrow.

It has hit Major support once again and not broken.

Quoting Kadc
This first leg of the correction worked out fine for me. I exited my gold short at $1754 for a very nice profit, plus some relatively profitable shorts in EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUS/USD, AUS/NZD
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #21,198
  • Oct 13, 2012 7:04am Oct 13, 2012 7:04am
i think gold touched its lower bollinger band on daily chart and it should bounce back from here.

any comments.
  • #21,199
  • Oct 13, 2012 10:43am Oct 13, 2012 10:43am
Lots of short inventory and a big hidden divergence. If price holds support it could pressure these shorts to let go. We could see a nice jump.

Im watching 1738.3 to make sure the HD stays in play.
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  • #21,200
  • Oct 13, 2012 11:18am Oct 13, 2012 11:18am
Quoting naqvislm
i think gold touched its lower bollinger band on daily chart and it should bounce back from here.

any comments.
With daily action in tight range over the past weeks you can see that the BBs have really narrowed. Therefore the fact that PA touched the BB is not significant.

The way I read it, pressure is building in this mkt and it could move big and fast once it goes through the recent highs and lows.
I have no enemy; I make Incautiousness my Enemy.
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