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XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

  • #21,101
  • Oct 4, 2012 9:03pm Oct 4, 2012 9:03pm
we will see 1800 today, with a short pullback
  • #21,102
  • Oct 5, 2012 1:17am Oct 5, 2012 1:17am
Quoting culibate
we will see 1800 today, with a short pullback
why do you think so?
  • #21,103
  • Oct 5, 2012 2:15am Oct 5, 2012 2:15am
Quoting vaidas7777
Now from TA perspective:

Gold easy could take 1900 - 1950 mark. 1900 looks more realistik. I would short only below 1770 - 1760 only. With gold euro could go to 1.3050, or in very good conditions to 1.3150.

From FA perspective, stocks should rise, interest should be low, gas prices also - elections...
Do you think a positive NFP number today will push it up?
"The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent"
  • #21,104
  • Oct 5, 2012 2:53am Oct 5, 2012 2:53am
Quoting anton.olff
Do you think a positive NFP number today will push it up?
A "good" number would tend to be gold negative. The basic thinking being that it would show less need for QE, be dollar positive, and therefore less money would need to be put into the system etc etc

Whatever comes out, do not be surprised to see the release "gamed" and some consequent volatility.

Long term, the fundamentals have not changed and price is in an upward trend........

beeb
  • #21,105
  • Oct 5, 2012 7:17am Oct 5, 2012 7:17am
NFP and Unemployment rate coming out soon.

Trade safe guys,

R
  • #21,106
  • Oct 5, 2012 8:45am Oct 5, 2012 8:45am
I'm very uncomfortable with the lack of any significant correction since the August lows. I'm now short from $1787.50 (Dec), the rebound from the drop to $1775 earlier this morning which I think we'll retest. If we break above $1787.50 I'm out until I get a strong buy signal, and if we break below $1775 I will increase my short position.

For next week, I agree with this author (link below) about the imminent decline of USD which should boost the metals; however, the 78.50 area is very heavy support which, if we don't close with a pullback in the metals today, could be the catalyst for a major correction if USD rebounds at that point.

www.minyanville.com/business-news/markets/articles/dollar-dollar-index-commodity-prices-stock/10/5/2012/id/44717
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #21,107
  • Oct 5, 2012 9:00am Oct 5, 2012 9:00am
I will be buying on dips...
  • #21,108
  • Oct 5, 2012 11:58am Oct 5, 2012 11:58am
Quoting beeb
A "good" number would tend to be gold negative. The basic thinking being that it would show less need for QE, be dollar positive, and therefore less money would need to be put into the system etc etc

Whatever comes out, do not be surprised to see the release "gamed" and some consequent volatility.

Long term, the fundamentals have not changed and price is in an upward trend........

beeb
Release was "gamed" all right. Volume still low 3 1/2 hours after release as well. Traders still evaluating NFP report?
"The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent"
  • #21,109
  • Oct 5, 2012 12:30pm Oct 5, 2012 12:30pm
Quoting anton.olff
Release was "gamed" all right. Volume still low 3 1/2 hours after release as well. Traders still evaluating NFP report?
Euro feels ok instead
  • #21,110
  • Oct 5, 2012 12:42pm Oct 5, 2012 12:42pm
Quoting anton.olff
Release was "gamed" all right. Volume still low 3 1/2 hours after release as well. Traders still evaluating NFP report?
It's a holiday weekend for China, US, Japan, Canada and it looks like most traders must have closed up shop shortly after the payroll numbers were in since volume was dead a good 45 minutes before the North American floor markets opened.

That being said, the data is unusually divergent from what was expected after yesterday's unemployment figures, particularly the revision to last month's payroll numbers, so I expect there's quite a few number cruncher busy trying to figure out where the truth lies.

...

It looks like gold is going to trickle down as whatever trade desks are still open take profit for the week. I don't expect a slam down, particularly with this low volume, but I think I'll be happy with my short position by close of business today.
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #21,111
  • Oct 6, 2012 2:44am Oct 6, 2012 2:44am
Long Term: I see reversal pattern on Gold !

First confirmation will be 1617

S1 1413

S2 1224

S3 1034

Everybody view on Gold is 1800, 1950 and much more above!

So expect unexpected.
  • #21,112
  • Edited 3:46am Oct 6, 2012 3:15am | Edited 3:46am
Quoting MrGreed
Long Term: I see reversal pattern on Gold !

First confirmation will be 1617

S1 1413

S2 1224

S3 1034

Everybody view on Gold is 1800, 1950 and much more above!

So expect unexpected.
Don't just leave everyone in suspense.........

Please explain what you see.

beeb

EDIT - there are a couple of guys called Bernanke and Draghi who would love to know how you have solved the world's financial mess....
  • #21,113
  • Oct 6, 2012 4:31am Oct 6, 2012 4:31am
Quoting beeb
Don't just leave everyone in suspense.........

Please explain what you see.

beeb

EDIT - there are a couple of guys called Bernanke and Draghi who would love to know how you have solved the world's financial mess....

Technically I see strong classic reversal pattern 1,2,3.



Do you remember last Asian Financial Crisis? (1997-1998)

Look at History, Please.
Now we have 2012 year Higher High on Gold like in 1996.

Gold was not a safe heaven!!! like many think!

I show you only the way but I don't ask you to follow it.
  • #21,114
  • Oct 6, 2012 5:17am Oct 6, 2012 5:17am
You are not showing the way, its just your perception about gold. Put up some chart to show why gold would go down and then let us(traders) decide wht would happen....

Quoting MrGreed
Technically I see strong classic reversal pattern 1,2,3.



Do you remember last Asian Financial Crisis? (1997-1998)

Look at History, Please.
Now we have 2012 year Higher High on Gold like in 1996.

Gold was not a safe heaven!!! like many think!

I show you only the way but I don't ask you to follow it.
  • #21,115
  • Edited 8:58am Oct 6, 2012 8:01am | Edited 8:58am
Quoting MrGreed
Technically I see strong classic reversal pattern 1,2,3.



Do you remember last Asian Financial Crisis? (1997-1998)

Look at History, Please.
Now we have 2012 year Higher High on Gold like in 1996.

Gold was not a safe heaven!!! like many think!

I show you only the way but I don't ask you to follow it.
Well you're going to have to point out the "strong classic reversal pattern" because I can't see it..... I think it's easier to see a "classic continuation pattern" pointing to higher prices. Also check out the longer term indicators such as stochs, MACD etc all pointing to a continuing trend.

One could argue that price is holding between horizontal support 1520 (ish) and resistance 1800 (ish) and that we have reached the highs again. But that's a long way from calling a top as you and so many others (lower down) have tried to do.

I'm well aware of what happened before eg in 2008 - gold moved from 1034 to 681 iirc - levels which are now a very long way below us. The big difference between then and now is the amount of money being pumped into the system and the fact that sovereign entities are rapaciously buying physical gold (rather than selling it) and providing a very solid floor under the market....

beeb
  • #21,116
  • Oct 6, 2012 9:39am Oct 6, 2012 9:39am
I also see a possible reversal pattern on gold. Fridays daily candle was a bearish outside day after Thursday's breakout of last months highs. Friday should have been another green day, but instead a bearish engulf happened. That is very worrisome.

Gold also formed a weekly flying buddah (last weeks range completely outside 5 and 10 EMA). Price closed at just a little bit above the 50% mark of its range forming a noticeable wick. This is a possible reversal signal also.

I have no idea how long this bearish momentum could last, but I would be surprised if Monday was an up day. Therefore if there was a day to sell some gold it may be on Monday because no one really knows how far down the bears can take it so might as well try and position yourself while we are trading at these prices.
Twitter: @zusch_ -- Preselecting trending pairs, stocks on a weekly basis.
  • #21,117
  • Oct 6, 2012 10:06am Oct 6, 2012 10:06am
Quoting zusch
I also see a possible reversal pattern on gold. Fridays daily candle was a bearish outside day after Thursday's breakout of last months highs. Friday should have been another green day, but instead a bearish engulf happened. That is very worrisome.

Gold also formed a weekly flying buddah (last weeks range completely outside 5 and 10 EMA). Price closed at just a little bit above the 50% mark of its range forming a noticeable wick. This is a possible reversal signal also.

I have no idea how long this bearish momentum could last, but...
I'm querying the (so far unsubstantiated) call for 1034 gold........

beeb
  • #21,118
  • Oct 6, 2012 10:28am Oct 6, 2012 10:28am
Quoting beeb
I'm querying the (so far unsubstantiated) call for 1034 gold........

beeb
Ok?
Twitter: @zusch_ -- Preselecting trending pairs, stocks on a weekly basis.
  • #21,119
  • Oct 7, 2012 2:45am Oct 7, 2012 2:45am
Quoting MrGreed
Long Term: I see reversal pattern on Gold !

First confirmation will be 1617

S1 1413

S2 1224

S3 1034

Everybody view on Gold is 1800, 1950 and much more above!

So expect unexpected.

OMG, need to close my positions and sell my physical, quick, someone wants to buy my gold, anyone?
  • #21,120
  • Oct 7, 2012 2:56am Oct 7, 2012 2:56am
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