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XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

  • #20,621
  • Aug 27, 2012 12:18pm Aug 27, 2012 12:18pm
Quoting zusch
Maybe once they blow through enough accounts they'll start to realize the only way to make money is with the trend.

XT
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #20,622
  • Aug 27, 2012 12:21pm Aug 27, 2012 12:21pm
Quoting zusch
All those moves you highlighted were when market was in a consolidation condition. I wasn't even watching Gold during the areas you highlighted b/c of the hindsight I received from the Monthly chart.

1: Bold down candle, bias is down for the next month.
2: Sellers can not keep it up, we retrace past 50% and 61.8% of last months range. Candle finishes as an inside bar. That is a stall.
3: Not surprisingly, buyers take over b/c of the lack of selling pressure last month and candle closes as another inside bar, but this time green. [b]When...
Ahh, OK..thanks for clearing that up. Looks like a logical strategy!
  • #20,623
  • Aug 27, 2012 2:09pm Aug 27, 2012 2:09pm
Quoting Zappa
Ahh, OK..thanks for clearing that up. Looks like a logical strategy!
Thank you. I try to keep my charts as simple as possible. GLD Daily is actually looking bearish now (Weekly and Monthly still say up however). These kind of conflicting signals happen all the time and are normal. How will monthly candle close though? With an upper wick or near its highs? I don't know, no one does.
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Twitter: @zusch_ -- Preselecting trending pairs, stocks on a weekly basis.
  • #20,624
  • Edited 2:47pm Aug 27, 2012 2:20pm | Edited 2:47pm
Quoting Zappa
I got a feeling we might see gold do something like this. The 2 highlighted bottoms were what I'd call "too easy" and have a good chance of being tested again. Once taken out, price can resume upwards.

This is not a call to go short here, but rather a heads up for a possible buy, down in that area. 1563 should be a safe place to place a stop.
I concur with this as well. Despite the technical bias for a continuation of the uptrend, [Three White Soldier candle stick pattern, breakout of key resistance, above 200 Daily MA, etc etc], If on Friday Bernanke hints of no QE3 in September [or just prevaricates on the subject as he usually does] than we could see a massive drop down towards the July lows where buyers will be waiting for another push up. If however he does hint at a QE3 that involves further asset purchasing [highly doubtful before the Sept FOMC meeting], God knows how much Gold will fly. I personally view the former happening, but let's see.
  • #20,625
  • Aug 27, 2012 2:38pm Aug 27, 2012 2:38pm
I really wouldn't read too much into today's action as it was a London Bank Holiday and the markets were incredibly thin - probably the quietest day of the month....

beeb
  • #20,626
  • Aug 27, 2012 4:05pm Aug 27, 2012 4:05pm
Quoting jimobiwan
I'm bullish but short into the weekend (looking at first chart, short 1671, then 1674, as PA hit the two sloping downtrend lines).

I am looking for only 1665 (half distance to a retest of the downward sloping trend line at about 1659) after which i will scale into longs looking for a run to 50%fib at 1720.9.

So although I am currently short, i am bullish.

I plan to be positionless over the next weekend - who knows what words will come forth during Jackson Hole.
1665 reached at last. Scaling in. Just managed to avoid an outside day down.
I have no enemy; I make Incautiousness my Enemy.
  • #20,627
  • Aug 27, 2012 5:16pm Aug 27, 2012 5:16pm
Quoting jimobiwan
1665 reached at last. Scaling in. Just managed to avoid an outside day down.
I think it'll still go down a bit more, maybe past 1635?
  • #20,628
  • Aug 27, 2012 5:24pm Aug 27, 2012 5:24pm
I'm guessing sideways action on gold and silver this week until Osama Ben Bernanke speaks. It would seem as though consolidation is in order anyway, regardless of Friday's speech. But then again, I could always be wrong. Just my two cents.
Get money, don't let money get you. @kauaiforex
  • #20,629
  • Aug 27, 2012 7:50pm Aug 27, 2012 7:50pm
if doji again for this hour, we may see a bit of a bounce before it goes down again. I see a bullish butterfly forming.
  • #20,630
  • Aug 27, 2012 11:37pm Aug 27, 2012 11:37pm
DOUBTFUL....

THAT IS MAJOR SUPPORT ----------


Reasoning please,

thank you,

XT..


Quoting tradechamp
I think it'll still go down a bit more, maybe past 1635?
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #20,631
  • Aug 27, 2012 11:40pm Aug 27, 2012 11:40pm
Champ, the market has formed a bottom and is now rising.

Gold has been bullish for over 10 years ---8 of them in a channel.

READ BACK A BIT, CHECK POST ONE, SEE MY SIG.

I'M OUT.

REST TIME.
Quoting tradechamp
if doji again for this hour, we may see a bit of a bounce before it goes down again. I see a bullish butterfly forming.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #20,632
  • Aug 27, 2012 11:45pm Aug 27, 2012 11:45pm
HE IS NOT DOING SH!T UNTIL THE ELECTION. FACE IT.. GOLD WILL LIKELY SLOWLY ACCUMULATE ON THE ANNOUNCEMENT THAT THE USD SUCKS A$$$$$$$. AND WE ARE GOING INTO Q E3)...


Let's see,

Either way, the buck is gonna drop and the long term - YEARLY targets
REMAIN

2150- GOLG
95- SILVER p will have hit 100 but not kept it,

Jeeeese don't you guys follow futures aT ALL?



Quoting donnyv
I concur with this as well. Despite the technical bias for a continuation of the uptrend, [Three White Soldier candle stick pattern, breakout of key resistance, above 200 Daily MA, etc etc], If on Friday Bernanke hints of no QE3 in September [or just prevaricates on the subject as he usually does] than we could see a massive drop down towards the July lows where buyers will be waiting for another push up. If however he does hint at a QE3 that involves further asset purchasing [highly doubtful before the Sept FOMC meeting], God knows how much Gold...
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #20,633
  • Aug 27, 2012 11:49pm Aug 27, 2012 11:49pm
FINDING SUPPORT>

LIVE CHART SUBJECT TO CHANGE.

http://www.kitco.com/images/live/gold.gif
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #20,634
  • Aug 27, 2012 11:51pm Aug 27, 2012 11:51pm
PERSONALLY - I WOULD GET LONG NOW. ON DIP.

THAT'S ME, though I am a position trader - although I do USE one account FX_CM to day trade...
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #20,635
  • Aug 27, 2012 11:53pm Aug 27, 2012 11:53pm
3 day chart?... Yup, if things keep up 1680 is BLOOOOOOWN...

Tread carefully and use your OWN CONVICTION.


Quoting XTrade
FINDING SUPPORT>

LIVE CHART SUBJECT TO CHANGE.

http://www.kitco.com/images/live/gold.gif
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #20,636
  • Edited 2:10am Aug 28, 2012 12:55am | Edited 2:10am
Quoting XTrade
3 day chart?... Yup, if things keep up 1680 is BLOOOOOOWN...

Tread carefully and use your OWN CONVICTION.

Jeez Xtrade it's 3am in NY - get some sleep or you'll be REALLY crabby

Seriously - there has been a load of talk about being long and short gold with no mention of timeframes. I'm long on dailies and 240s but have been short on 20 as follows:

When I saw price moving lower in the blue upfork I started looking for a downfork. I tried a number but none looked likely until the red one shown. It was confirmed by the UP touch and rejection in the green circle. I therefore took a short at the next touch in the purple circle with a stop above the previous high in the green circle. Price fell rapidly away and my current stop is just above the ML and last high as marked by the purple line...

beeb

EDIT - stopped out whilst typing that - $9.5 gain for a $2 stop....
Taking advantage of price movements whilst maintaining a long bias...

EDIT 2 - I'm posting this to try and help or educate people to my method - I will not post trades ahead of time as I don't want people following what I do. I don't know your circumstances/risk tolerances/objectives etc - so what might be a quality and controlled trade for me might be an unacceptable gamble for you......
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  • #20,637
  • Aug 28, 2012 5:49am Aug 28, 2012 5:49am
LOL Always up late brother, not too bad this morning but thanks!!!

I agree and Thank YOU for pointing out my LACK of description.

Since it is a 3 day or a daily chart sometimes broken down by hour on the daily NYC chart I've been posting, I thought it was assumed that I was speaking in daily sense

xt
Quoting beeb
Jeez Xtrade it's 3am in NY - get some sleep or you'll be REALLY crabby

Seriously - there has been a load of talk about being long and short gold with no mention of timeframes. I'm long on dailies and 240s but have been short on 20 as follows:

When I saw price moving lower in the blue upfork I started looking for a downfork. I tried a number but none looked likely until the red one shown. It was confirmed by the UP touch and rejection in the green circle. I therefore took a short at the next touch in the purple circle with a stop above...
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #20,638
  • Aug 28, 2012 6:31am Aug 28, 2012 6:31am
Quoting XTrade
HE IS NOT DOING SH!T UNTIL THE ELECTION. FACE IT.. GOLD WILL LIKELY SLOWLY ACCUMULATE ON THE ANNOUNCEMENT THAT THE USD SUCKS A$$$$$$$. AND WE ARE GOING INTO Q E3)...


Let's see,

Either way, the buck is gonna drop and the long term - YEARLY targets
REMAIN

2150- GOLG
95- SILVER p will have hit 100 but not kept it,

Jeeeese don't you guys follow futures aT ALL?
There is no disagreement or contention here. I also take the view Gold has many years of juice left in its bullish run. However, I'm a swing trader and pay close attention to when the market may temporarily turn / or correct. Nothing else gets the juices stirring in the market than QE hysteria so why not make money from it ?
  • #20,639
  • Aug 28, 2012 7:33am Aug 28, 2012 7:33am
I hope you guys are on for the ride up.
  • #20,640
  • Aug 28, 2012 8:51am Aug 28, 2012 8:51am
Following on from post #20760 to show why it was not a further shorting opportunity at the red UP.

1 price was again finding support in the blue upfork along the thick sp
2 the bar marked A was a very bullish bar making it through the red UP before closing at the potential resistance
3 because of these reasons (and the bullish news) I would not sell without seeing a number of bars reacting to the potential resistance at the red LP
4 there was no nearby high behind which to hide a stop

Price looks to be again in harmony with the blue upfork having ridden the red downfork lower - therefore it was not the right time to short the market....

beeb

EDIT - obviously the support at the thick sp were an opp to go long with very tight stop...
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